Bets 28/09/2024

I don't like heavy ground betting. I'm crap at it. End of season too, so just did a handful and not that enthused by them

Haydock

1.30 - Flying Finn 20/1. Decent mark, likes heavy. 

Skipper 4/1. Not as well handicapped, but trainer flying and Calyx on heavy in handicaps 3/6 and 6/9 at Haydock. Maybe a 11/1 double with Sir William in the next. Calyx double!

Newmarket

3.40 - Going against trends somewhat this week. I suspect many trainers line up an improving good ground horse for this race. It's been G-GF for the last 14 years so we may find a surprise this year. Or I'm chatting sh1te and we won't. The two best handicapped horses are:

Bopedro - 14/1ew

Empirestateofmind 66/1ew (backed earlier in the week)

4.45 - Granger Bay 7/2

Bets 24/09/2024

Saturday started off really well and then went downhill fast :)

End of flat season junk.

3.55 Beverley - La Boo 9/1ew to make all. Ran over C&D on second start behind horses rated 80 - 106. If runs anywhere close to that is romping home. Reckon improved a stone lto with application of headgear. Trainer has the best SR at Beverley in this race. Is 30% SR in 3yr old handicaps at Beverley in last 4 years. If you fine tune that is 7/17 (41%) in 3yr Beverley handicaps (Aug - Oct) when horse is running in same class or down in class from last race and last run was between 1 - 6 weeks. Got the low draw, so let's go Jo.

4.55 Listowel - Narmar 7/1ew. Gutted. This opened at 14/1 and missed the price. I was really keen on this at 50/1 for the Irish Cambridgeshire and was really unlucky in running not to at least place. Much easier race, obviously and I still think it's chucked in but Henry DB is not in the same form. That said he has a 29% SR here and Carroll is 16%, both the best in the race.

Bets 21/09/2024

 Ayr 1.15 - Mr King 14/1ew. Form with the fave Mirsky can be turned around with the 6lb pull. Ignore lto race. That York race is the one to watch. Came from the back, switched couple times and found some extra gears twice to make up ground. Be very keen if price shortened to single figures.

Ayr 1.50 - Enfjaar 4/1. Varian @ Ayr 7f+ on GS or quicker is 10/20. Forget lto. Ran wide over too short. Should have one the Coral handicap. Is on the up and still unexposed. Varian won this before.

Ayr 2.25 - Tough. Lucky Man 30s on exchange. Won well lto, won of higher marks, trainer in good form and meets a bunch of trend. Its 14s with bookies so have to be very worried about this gap to the exchanges, but fook it. Spencer gone close twice with this race. Summerghand 7/1. Last time I do this :)

Ayr 3.35 - Rohaan 11/1ew. Massive chance. Solid run in the race lto. Lower in weights and comes into the race in better form. Good draw.

Ayr 4.40 - Abduction 6/1ew. Was a NR is the Silver Cup. Must think a good thing for this race if dropping out of that...? Ran well couple races back and now dropped to an attractive mark. C&D winner. Goldie in form. Fingers crossed

Ayr 5.15 - Kitsune Power 12/1ew. Consistent on turf. Easterby knocking on the door for a winner and gone close twice in this race. Back to good ground I think it's the best handicapped horse in race behind Eugen Glen who surely regressive now.

Newbury 1.30 - No Half Measures 8/1ew

Chester 4.15 - Radio Goo Goo 5/1ew

Newbury 5.35 - Retracement 5/1ew Chucked in

Bets 15/09/2024

3 winners yesterday including a 16/1. 6 blanks.

Wanted to spend time on the cards today, but no chance. Half stakes.

Curragh 

1.50 - Strike Red 6/1

2.25 - Purple Lily 5/2 Strong form, still unexposed

3.00 - Red Letter 10/3

3.35 - She's Quality 25/1ew - New tactics worked last time out. Make all and win. Thanks. 

4.10 - Henni Mattisse Evs

4.45 - Kyprios 4/5

5.55 - Mashoor 18/1ew

Doncaster

2.05 - Brave Nation 9/2

2.40 - Parbous 9/2. Golden Mind 30/1

3.15 - Topango 12/1. Cell Sa Bella 40/1

3.45 - Hartswood 16/1ew

4.15 - Kings Lynn 15/2ew

4.50 - Young Fire 15/2ew

5.25 - Jump The Gun 40/1ew

Bets 14/09/2024

Donny

1.50 - Wolf of Badenoch 3/1 - Best horse on paper

2.25 - Aberama Gold 16/1ew. Solid course form. 9lb below last winning mark. Best handicapped horse on best form in race.Albasahaer 10/1. Not sure if this is the aim, but ran a massive race lto. Course winner. Shagraan was next on list.

3.00 - Poet Master 7/2. Assuming Kinross not the old force used to be, this is best horse in race. Lead Artist's rating is based of 1m, not 7f, so even though Poet Mast has a G2 penalty is the best on ratings. I am worried about Burke's current form, but hopefully class sees this C&D winner home.

3.40 - Sunway 5/1. Tough race. Aob running 3. No Ryan. JB surely too inexperienced? Illinois form with LA means Sunway is better value

4.15 - Dayofourlives 9/2

Bath

4.30 - Miss Show Down 10/1, Sabrimento 9/1 - Both well handicapped

Musselb

5.50 - Molten Sea 9/4 Probably chucked in if back to form

Bets 08/09/2024

Man that was some nearly shizzle yesterday. Been keen on Kind of Blue for this race for a while and gutted to see Haggas in form. A lot of winners an places yesterday but no jackpot (again).

1.40 York - Windlord 13/8  - Form is decent

2.15 York - Grandlad 14/1ew. When Dorney Lake figures it out, is going to bolt up in a handicap. There seems to only be pace from Grandlad and Law of Average. Grandlad ran really well over C&D enough to show is well handicapped over C&D. My worry is Horton form, but has a 25% SR here.

3.25 York - MArkoon 10/3. Backed lto. I want redemption :) Is really well handicapped and Haggas is on fire again and won this last year.

4.00 York - Significantly 8/1ew back from small injury, down in class, solid C&D runner, trainer on fire.

Bets 07/09/2024

Ascot 

1.35 - Run Boy Run 10/1ew - Won on soft lto. Granger Bay has well and truly franked the form today. Spencer had 2/2 winners today. Turner is a positive booking as the pair are 29% win together.

Wizard of Eye looks like such an obvious bet, but worried about the ground being too soft? Maybe have a small cover on it

2.10 - The Reverend 4/1. Looks chucked in on paper. Haggas is 34% in 3year old handicaps in Aug/Sept within some other conditions which this meets.

3.20 - Rhetorical 3/1. Exactly same write up as above :) Hosaam the danger.

3.55 - Fresh 9/4 (TBC). Backed this AP for the 1.35 @ 8/1. Annoying running in this much weaker race. Should just win. Went very close in the International. New Image franked from. Won over C&D on soft. Big chance, but the problem is Rohaan. 5/5 over C&D when G3 or lower. Hmmm. Maybe the 10/1 Fresh / Rohaan rfc is safer play?

   

4.30 - Rowayeh 3/1 - Redemption day. Blocked last two times on turf including over C&D at RA.

5.05 - Badri 9/1ew. A solid C&D runner, in good form as is the trainer.

Haydock 

1.50 - Master Builder 5/2 - The York form is decent.

3.35 - Kind of Blue 20/1ew - Backed this Antepost. Not sure can win as didn't improve s much as hoped lto. 4 or 5 could back in this, so no leaving it.

Thirsk

6.10 - Oso Rapido 20/1ew. Loves this race and can win off this mark. Ignore last race. Was running from 14lb out the handicap. Very odd. Race before wasn't great but C&D horses can always bounce back. Trainer in good nick