York 1.30 - Battle Fever 16/1ew
York 2.05 - Insanity 14/1ew
York 3.17 - Pelitory 5/1ew
Newmarket 3.40 - High Fibre 22/1ew
York 1.30 - Battle Fever 16/1ew
York 2.05 - Insanity 14/1ew
York 3.17 - Pelitory 5/1ew
Newmarket 3.40 - High Fibre 22/1ew
York 13.30 - Always try to take on short faves in big field handicaps but might be tough to do in this race. Beagle Bay form is rock solid and this is a much easier race in a lower grade. Beckett stats are strong for this race and is in decent form. Only nag is the draw up the centre but seems the pace is only up the centre. Northern Express and Glenfinnan are best on numbers, but Dods, even though placed a few times in this race has not had a winner in 26 runners, so cannot play them. If the ground was quicker would have considered Nikovo, but it's not!
Beagle Bay 2/1
York 2.40 - Harper Violet could well be chucked in and the money for it is interesting, but with only 3 races under belt and fact won't get an easy lead will leave be. Mythical Bay has pieces added which could see bounce back to form but too risky. I like both Beckett's and Haggas horses in this. Tierra and Glory Road both come from the best formlines from the Melrose where they both had awful draws. Haggas has won this race 3 times before, has a crazy record with beaten favs, Ghaiyyath 3yo are decent for this race condition, and with the tongue tie back on when bolted up by 4lenghts in handicap plus the step up in distance are all making me side with Gaspacho.
Gaspacho 7/1ew
York 3.40 - Back Furturra in a nursery handicap at York back in July as think is well handicapped over C&D. Easterby had the winner in this last year and watching Furturra's last race, was cruising, last off the bridle, but couldn't quite see it out on the heavy ground. Hopefully still in good form, and been some early money for it which taking as a good sign.
Furturra 11/1ew
York 4.25 - Blindly going to look only at the 3yr olds who do much better then their elders. Given how close Exclamation was to winning a C2 handicap at Sandown and how hampered the horse was lto bit crazy to see it sitting at 40/1. May well just be one to back at Sandown nto instead but willing to find out at the prices esp has had a couple of winners of late, who also has a decent record when sending one long distances. Boldomero looks dangerous off this mark, but given age point leaving this one. Halo Spaceboy takes big drop back into handicap company and can go close, esp given is a course winner.
Exclamation 40/1ew
Halo Spaceboy 13/2ew
Going through a dark patch atm, but I keep applying the same approach and hopefully out the hole soon enough.
1.15 Ascot - American Gal 12/1ew
1.50 Ascot - Floruesence 13/2ew
3.00 Ascot - Division 2/1 best on ratings. Sayidah Dariyan was interesting at a big ew price, but think wants further to be at best.
3.35 Ascot - Such a big bias yesterday I immediately went to the high draws but doesn't seem to be any pace high so will skip Artic Dawn who is quite tempting. That said they watered yesterday so who knows what will happen today. Poet Master best on numbers but not the typical profile for this race. That said could make all and have the class to see it out given hardly any other front runner.
Realign 20/1ew
1.22 Newmarket - Tracker horse who should have won lto. Stable on fire. SDS better push the go button quicker this time. Was going to put up later tonight, but price is being battered. Still an ew price which works for me.
Fire Thunder 6/1ew
1.35 Haydock - Stepping back into handicap company Commander's Intent has a decent chance to win this as ran a decent enough race on soft at Chantilly in a listed race
Commanders Intent 13/2ew
3.15 Haydock - Rousing Encore 6/1ew best formlines. Ran blinder from wrong side lto. Risk is only ran last weekend on heavy
3.28 Ripon - I'm Next 8/1ew best formlines. Ran blinder from wrong side lto. Risk is only ran last weekend on heavy
3.40 Newmarket - Very few front runners makes this quite hard to assess. Likeliest front runner is drawn and couple in the middle. but arguable nothing up high, which makes it hard to back Hand of God who am drawn to the most. I spent over an hour looking at this race and made a case for so many. Salam D 65's will try to make all and maybe hang on for a place at big price. Spanish Voice, screwed by draw lto, likes the course and is deffo progressive. Asmen Warrior 40's very interesting, but drawn high and is Alcarth looks to be getting better every race. Not sure can nail the winner in such a wide open contest with lack of pace certainity.
Spanish Voice 16/1ew to try make all up the middle
Alcarath 16/1ew to get decent tow into race from Salam D
Ayr 1.20 - Thunder Roar 11/2ew is best on numbers but really not in great form. Spoken Truth has got lbs in hand based on last run. Just need 1m and soft ground to bring alive.
Ayr 1.55 - Ice Max 3/1 is best on numbers
Ayr 2.30 - Toyotomi is visually the best hanidcapped and Jungle Drums 16/1ew in good form, will love the ground and won the race lto when drawn wrong which put him ahead of Toyotomi which makes him the value bet. Korker and Commache Falls are best on numbers, but think not the right profile for this race.
Ayr 3.05 - Silent Beauty 7/4
Ayr 3.40 - Candy 33/1ew Antepost was all good until the jockey booking so not as keen anymore. Far Above Dream 8s and Dance In The Storm 8s both bring the best formlines into the race and meet all the trends.
3.05 Ayr - Dods and Burke have won this race 6 times between them. Beautiful Diamond won this last year and is best on numbers and whilst price is not great it justifies her chances. Luna A Innhir Nis is still improving and likely the biggest threat. I'm playing coins on Beautiful Diamond (Burke), Luna A IN(Risk), Novamay (Dods) tricast, But Beautiful Diamond is the pick.
Beautiful Diamond 7/4
3.40 Ayr - Made a case for 5 of these, but being a distance winner is important on stats so it ruled out a couple (Boston Dan who is chucked in and Francisco's Piece who is in decent form and on a good mark). Jordan Electrics is best on numbers and Woven holds decent C&D numbers but they are 10 now and so a stretch. Rousing Encore is in the top 5 on numbers, C&D winner, with trainer in form, and has come back to form. American Style needs to set off with a decent pace to give the high draws a chance else It just takes time will help low to mid and Rousing Encore will be scuppered.
Rousing Encore 14/1ew
3.00 Ayr - Wild Thoughts brings the best form into the race by far and with Saffie, together, they hold very strong stats on similar tracks. Altareq was one many thought would progress and on best form is a danger, but far too risky. Tiernan is potentially really well handicapped but in yet to prove in this class.
Wild Thoughts 5/2