1.22 Newmarket - Tracker horse who should have won lto. Stable on fire. SDS better push the go button quicker this time. Was going to put up later tonight, but price is being battered. Still an ew price which works for me.
Fire Thunder 6/1ew
More later tonight
Ayr 1.20 - Thunder Roar 11/2ew is best on numbers but really not in great form. Spoken Truth has got lbs in hand based on last run. Just need 1m and soft ground to bring alive.
Ayr 1.55 - Ice Max 3/1 is best on numbers
Ayr 2.30 - Toyotomi is visually the best hanidcapped and Jungle Drums 16/1ew in good form, will love the ground and won the race lto when drawn wrong which put him ahead of Toyotomi which makes him the value bet. Korker and Commache Falls are best on numbers, but think not the right profile for this race.
Ayr 3.05 - Silent Beauty 7/4
Ayr 3.40 - Candy 33/1ew Antepost was all good until the jockey booking so not as keen anymore. Far Above Dream 8s and Dance In The Storm 8s both bring the best formlines into the race and meet all the trends.
3.05 Ayr - Dods and Burke have won this race 6 times between them. Beautiful Diamond won this last year and is best on numbers and whilst price is not great it justifies her chances. Luna A Innhir Nis is still improving and likely the biggest threat. I'm playing coins on Beautiful Diamond (Burke), Luna A IN(Risk), Novamay (Dods) tricast, But Beautiful Diamond is the pick.
Beautiful Diamond 7/4
3.40 Ayr - Made a case for 5 of these, but being a distance winner is important on stats so it ruled out a couple (Boston Dan who is chucked in and Francisco's Piece who is in decent form and on a good mark). Jordan Electrics is best on numbers and Woven holds decent C&D numbers but they are 10 now and so a stretch. Rousing Encore is in the top 5 on numbers, C&D winner, with trainer in form, and has come back to form. American Style needs to set off with a decent pace to give the high draws a chance else It just takes time will help low to mid and Rousing Encore will be scuppered.
Rousing Encore 14/1ew
3.00 Ayr - Wild Thoughts brings the best form into the race by far and with Saffie, together, they hold very strong stats on similar tracks. Altareq was one many thought would progress and on best form is a danger, but far too risky. Tiernan is potentially really well handicapped but in yet to prove in this class.
Wild Thoughts 5/2
Finding winners in favourites atm to keep me afloat. Struggling with big field handicaps atm but we go again. Rare Sunday punting.
1.35 Donny - Tried to find something to beat Hypnotised 4/1, but looks pretty solid. Looks progressive
1.45 Curragh - Tango Flare 25/1 ew. Top 5 on numbers. Won this last year. Historically has shown can bounce back poor runs and versatile with running style. Needs to make sure doesn't get stuck on the rail.
1.55 Donny - Indian Run 11/1ew best on numbers
TREBLE 7/2 - 2.15 Curragh - Star of State 4/7 - Miles clear on ratings double with 2.50 Curragh - Sun Goddess 10/11 - Miles clear on ratings with 4.35 Curragh - Scandinavia 2/5 Miles clear on ratings
2.30 Donny - Wechaad 5/2 crept back into form and can win again since this time last year
3.05 Donny - Touleen surely the best horse here. Should be a G1 winner. The cheekpieces bother me though a lot. Forty Years On most likley winner, but with 20 runners bit short. Chance on Copacabana Sands 25/1ew who has come back into form but was running to 106 last year.
3.25 Curragh - Time For Sandals 5/1 should have won the Nunthorpe. If in the same form wins this. Cover Up 16/1 ew is too big also
3.40 Donny - If Fantasy World 12/1ew bounced back to form can win this
5.45 Curragh - God of Power 12/1ew if can take form of last race literally is very well handicapped.
2.20 Donny - Toca Madera 9/1ew
2.55 Donny - More Thunder 5/4 best on numbers
3.55 Donny - Enceladus 5/2
4.00 Lingfield - Kylian 7/1ew
4.15 Donny - Blue Courvoisier 6/1ew
2.25 - Carry The Flag 5/1ew to make all.
3.00 - Caballo De Mar 5/4 best on numbers
3.35 - Room Fourteen 15/2ew the value with 15lb pull against Silver Lake
4.10 Victoria Night 5/4 racecourse experience and nearly beat a good marker in 90s on debut.
