12.15 Newmaket - What A Girl Wants 5/1ew
2.02 Newcastle - Popty Ping 15/2ew
3.12 Newcastle - Cloth of Gold 15/2ew
3.42 Newcastle - Dosman 11/2ew
12.15 Newmaket - What A Girl Wants 5/1ew
2.02 Newcastle - Popty Ping 15/2ew
3.12 Newcastle - Cloth of Gold 15/2ew
3.42 Newcastle - Dosman 11/2ew
Rossa Ryan on Coppull clearly saw the major speed was up the centre before deciding to go stands side and win that race. Ignored Libertango as was drawn 3 and ignored Organised as has 'poor draw'. Overthinking the draw. Really need to find where the pace is likely to be.
9/2, 11/2 and 16/1 placed with the place acca 4 out of 5, so another -6 day, Down to 39.
2.30 - Early foal from Golden Pal. Just hope they've not watered the low numbers today ;)
Ez Tina 9/1ew
3.05 - Best Secret is in good form, improving, strong course form
Best Secret 8/1ew
3.40 - Satano Reve is the fatest in the field, but Regional comes out on top of my numbers
Santano Reve 7/2
Regional 40/1ew
4.20 - Catullus is best on numbers and not overly worried about the Appelby RA form
Catullus 8/1ew
5.00 - Ten Pounds should go close and Two Tribes if back to form is best on numbers, but trends are also quite strong for Sondad and Far Above Dream
Ten Pounds 10/1ew
Sondad 22/1 ew
Far Above Dream 16/1ew
5.35 - Evanesco should be a similar price to Lost Boys and Sahara King on formlines
Evanesco 10/1ew
6.10 - A Piece of Heaven 6/1ew
Might put up a placed acca tomorrow. If everything fails to place will end up with 19 points for the festival. Hopefully end week with couple winners and couple places.
Those GoingStick readings did not reflect reality. Annoying. Thought Mountain Cat looked a tad unlucky not to place, if not maybe more, but in the end only 3 places yesterday (28/1, 10/1, 11/1) so ended up -6, which brings Ascot to +45 after Day 3.
2.30 Albany - Winning last time out is important. Will assume high stalls matter, and if Light of Dawn had not run only 10 days ago I'd likely pick this. Next on the draw with a win is Bated Benevolence.
Bated Benevolence 33/1ew
3.05 Commonwealth - Strong course form and worth playing at the prices
Coppull 12/1ew
3.40 DOE - Hopewell Rock brings the best form to the table, but Warrant Hold looks highly progressive and main danger
Hopewell Rock 9/2ew
4.20 Coronation - Precise should win but one for an acca
5.00 Sandringham - Quiet Mutiny as per earlier, formline with Precise. Glyfada looks quick
Quiet Mutiny 14/1ew
Glyfada 11/2ew
5.35 - No bet
6.10 Sandringham - Tricky. Want Bacio to ping an make all and Starmade to get the perfect tow
Starmade 16/1ew
Couple of decent places, couple decent wins, a decent 38/1 treble and a decent hangover.
According to the GoingStick there is pretty much no draw bias today. Wanted to narrow down the races to one pick, but not got time today. Gone for a a fair few double digit ews. Go easy :)
2.30 Chesham - No need to take on the fave here.
Aix La Chapelle 11/4
3.05 King George - Dial Me In looks potentially well handicapped and worth chancing at the prices.
Dial Me In 25/1ew
3.40 Ribblesdale - Brilliant Star could make all and can't really ignore the fact AOB won this race last three years and only has one dart for today
Brilliant Star 28/1ew
Composing 9/1ew
4.15 Gold Cup - Scandinavia should win this assuming stays, but at the prices chancing Sweet William and las years Vase winner Carmers
Sweet William 11/1ew
Carmers 22/1ew
4.50 Brittania - Not had enough time to deep dive the race, but Tales of Wisdom look well handicapped on collateral form, as does Flushing Meadows. Noelan Star interesting.
Tales of Wisdom 16/1ew
Flushing Meadows 20/1ew
Nolean Star 40/1ew
5.35 Hampton Court - Mountain Cat 10/1ew
6.10 Buckingham Palace - Doesn't appear to be much pace drawn low, which is sad as fancied couple drawn there. Elarak can set the pace and make jut make all and Cosi Bello should get a good tow from it.
Elarak 10/1ew
Cos Bello 8/1ew
+8 for Day 1, but a very close 25/1 2nd could have made the week. 18/1 3rd made it to worse as had the forecast :)
Only putting something up in every race as will be track side. Don't up your stakes. Don't forecast/tricast every race. Don't have more accas than singles, etc, etc. Bet smart.
GoingStick: Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.7, Farside: 8.5. Round: 7.6. Soil Moisture: 40% readings taken on Wednesday at 8.30am. = High Numbers as long as is pace on sprints
2.30 Queen Mary - I just picked a couple of the fastest horse on paper, Fast Track is the value bet at 40s. Price makes no sense given form with Senorita
More Champagne 11/1ew
Alta Regina 17/2ew
3.05 Queens Vase - Don't like the race. Port of Spain bring LGC form, Limestone looks decent but will he handle the fast going?
Limestone 7/2
3.40 Duke of Cambridge - Sadly the fav is top on numbers all round, no big ew plays. Friendly Soul who is second in the betting second on numbers too!
Bolt Blue 3/1
4.20 Prince of Wales - Love watching these races, but betting not so much.
Almaqam 7/1ew speccy play given current form
I play a Limestone, Bolt Blue, Ombudsman 38/1 treble
5.00 Royal Hunt Cup - Went through usual checks and ended up with the top3 in the market, which is not great. Indalo Fifth Column and Jagged Edge Linwood was next but weight carrying doesn't fit trends. I can't see any pace from stall 18+ which might help negate the high stall draw bias.
Jagged Edge 12/1ew
Fifth Column 9/1ew
5.35 - Not seen a handicap like this before where 15 horses are so tight on numbers. On a shortlist on 7, but really it's 15. Crazy. American Gal, Rhapsody, Gaga Girl and Perfect Part are the 4 that I can't decide between if really apply pressure on numbers.
Rhapsody 18/1ew
Perfect Part 28/1ew
6.10 Windsor - No clue. Controlla looks to be fatsest, Control meets some trends I like
Controlla 4/1ew
Rulers Control 16/1ew
Not the best of days for me for betting purposes with only two long distance handicaps which are not a fun as 1m and below handicaps.
2.30 - Queen Anne - Notable Speech is best on numbers, but given poor runs at Ascot, at the price am okay to look elsewhere. That said I can pick holes in most of them and I chucked some coins on Ciceros Gift 50's who is a G1 C&D winner and First Conquest 50s who is arguably a better form over 1m, but I don't like anything enough at any price to put up a bet
No bet
3.05 Coventry Stakes - Great Barrier Reef is top on numbers for me and whilst still looking very green. Any of these can step up an improve significantly and that's the risk you take with 2year olds. Doesn't look like a huge drawn bias anywhere atm, and low numbers appear to have a lot of pace which will help GBR.
Great Barrier Reef 7/1ew
3.40 King Charles - I have Jackaro 40/1 AP for this, but feel the ground is going to be too quick. I think the Temple Stakes form line is one to follow. Not 100% certain Overpass is as good over 5, but between him and Jackaro they'll set a good pace for the high numbers, so American Affair is the one I want to be on as looks better than last year coming into this. After back Night Raider a few times last year to no avail obviously come good this year and also looks very good. Frost at Dawn and Cover Up and big value ew prices, but not sure goo enough to win
American Affair 8/1ew
Night Raider 7/1ew
4.20 St. James - No value for me
No bet.
5.00 - Reaching High and Putyourhandtogether are rightly at the top of the market, but at the prices and at the risk of traffic not for me. I find it harder to solve this staying handicaps but two that are much bigger prices and also potentially well handicapped if they stay are Tim Toe and Defiantly Mega risky
Tim Toe 18/1ew
Defiantly 25/1ew
5.35 Wolferton - The form of thePrix du Prince d'Orange behind Daryz and Croix Du Nord is fire so playing Nahraan
Nahraan 6/1ew