One flat bet at Galway worth playing.
7.50 - Nod of Approval 12/1ew is good value to turn tables on the fave Darius Dark given is effectively 1 stone better off. They should be a similar price. Came from the back last time out and had to check left so many times, but once finally got clear powered home. If Nod of Approval is ridden closer to the pace can win this. It's a race Harrington has won 3 times in the last 5 years.
None of these races are classed as 'festivals' so you know the score. There's a fair bit of alignment with HQ today though.
Ascot 1.10 - Never Enough 6/4 should be enough
Ascot 2.20 - Disappointing if Touleen 4/5 can't win this given what has shown
Ascot 2.55 - Mentioned had few on the radar for today. Touleen was the first and the other was Amazing Journey. In my great wisdom, when was 50/1, decided I'd wait for the draw. On Thursday was 12/1 and panicked and backed it. It's now 8/1, but I'm not convinced it's got the best draw.
However, it's not a max field so Saffie will have more than enough time to line this highly progressive 3year old up to win on on part of track needs to. Blitzed the field last time out with very strong turn of foot, race time and is technically 5lb ahead of mark on paper, but visually a lot more.
Shame the price has gone, but I'd not back anything else ahead of it and hopefully 50s into 8s is a positive sign the stable fancy it.
Amazing Journey 8/1ew
Ascot 15.35 - Calandagan 13/8 best horse on numbers and worth backing Never Enough, Touleen, Calandagan Treble 10/1+)
Ascot 4.45 - Hickory is best on numbers and back to form lto. Could be an Osbourne double...
Hickory 11/1ew
Ascot 5.20 - Rythmn N Hooves is best on numbers and I deleted Kylian from my tracker, but is second best on numbers. Given Cowell likes to target the race and his horses are #1 and #2 on numbers have to back them both
Rythmn N Hooves 15/2ew
Kylian 11/1 ew
York 2.00 - Commache Falls is best on numbers and Rousing Encore is going to win a race soon enough and the price today is worth finding out if it's today
Commache Falls 25/1ew
Rousing Encore 20/1ew
Ascot 2.20 - Cut and Sew 14/1ew. Classic Walker 2nd time out 2year old profile?
Ascot 4.05 - Al Azd the one to beat for sure, but Theory of Tides could be the one to give most to think about stepping up in trip. Theory of Tides 9/1ew
Ascot 5.12 - Kilavia 9/2ew should be winning a race like this or I'd give up on it
York 5.32 - Orne 11/1ew nearly setup Lir Speciale perfectly for us lto. Today can make all low side and maybe, just maybe hold on, in a poorish race.
York 6.05 - Vaguely Royal 8/1ew back in good form.
York 7.15 - Fiscal Policy 33/1ew if assume last run was poor due to draw looks a decent ew price
York 8.25 - Go Vince Go 3/1 race to lose
Putting up 3 favourites in non-handicaps. All losing. Not cool. I need to stick to handicaps! Pelitory 28/1 was the 9th agonising double figure price 2nd this flat season. Could have made the day, but instead July Cup is now -14.5 and John Smith is +0.5.
A lot of racing today.
John Smith Festival Day 2
York 2.02 - Furturra 6/1ew best on numbers
York 2.39 - Checkandchallenge 9/1ew has come down the weights now and is best on numbers. Cannot afford to miss the break though. Lost King 6/1ew was next best.
York 3.12 - King Charles III surely the formline to follow for this? Out of those at the prices, given nearly won this race last year opting for Miss Attitude 12/1ew
York 3.45 - Danger Bay 7/1ew meets the trends I need, but tough race.
York 4.20 - Terrorise 12/1ew back to a mark can win off. Money for it suggesting is back in good form. Will need to be.
York 5.30 - Juan Les Pins 12/1ew is best on numbers but bit of a joker, so Sixtygeesbaby 20/1ew worth playing at the prices.
July Cup Day 3
2.52 Newmarket - Wechaad 4/1 can reverse placings with Moonfall
3.25 Newmarket - Two Tribes 12/1ew ran well enough from a bad draw a RA to suggest back in good form and ready to resume progress
4.35 - Satano Reve 10/3 best on numbers, with age being only stat concern but looks in decent nick
5.10 - Righthere Rightnow 6/1ew best on numbers, Secret History 12/1ew most unexposed
Non Festival Bets
1.55 Ascot - Schrodengers Cat 12/1ew
I think my strongest 3, one from each track, going into an ew trxie are:
1.55 Ascot - Schrodengers Cat 12/1ew
York 4.20 - Terrorise 12/1ew
3.25 Newmarket - Two Tribes 12/1ew
Calico Blue in second to Jazl was quite frustrating. I don't think was a draw bias. The better horse won. Oxagon did everything was supposed to until started wandering around and the final pair no good, but not to give up on. The joker sweated up badly and the fave was super restless at the start but means start the July Cup -6.5.
July Cup Festival
Newmarket 1.50 - Princling 5/2 should be hard to beat given last race. Backed Evanesco lto so hope doesn't get allowed an east lead.
Newmarket 2.25 - Libertango 4/5 super impressive lto
Newmarket 3.00 - I think Pole Star 14/1ew can reverse placings with Globlet of Fire at twice the price. Proven C&D runner behind Align the Stars.
Newmarket 3.35 - With the 3year old allowance Precise 4/5 should win
John Smith Festival
York 2.10 - If Pelitory 28/1ew bounces back to form is very well handicaped over C&D
York 5.05 - Brazen Bolt 10/1ew, Muker 12/1ew
Non Festival Bet
3.10 Ascot - Arbaawy 18/1ew and Shaman Champion 18/1ew are too big based on marks and performances here
One and Gone a game winner. Underdog very unlucky from my perspective and one for nto. Glacius ran well into 3rd, but not good enough to win that race.
1.50 - Sandown - Asfoora is best on numbers but had a good draw lto and wasn't convincing? Rumstar 3/1 looked like he was going to take off in this race last year and if in similar form be hard to beat. Words of Truth will make it a good race.
2.25 Sandown - Hard Endeavor 14/1ew is better value than Beagle Bay. I backed River King at 12/1 as ran well from draw at RA, but pricewise has killed the price and value is gone at 6s.
3.00 Sandown - Secret of Life 5/1ew. Entered in the Falmouth and other group races. Big horse. No way Beckett runs in this if doesn't think a decent chance stepping up from a c4.
3.35 Sandown - A Boy Named Suzy 9/1ew is the value bet. 400m out lto was so far behind Constitution River, stuck behind many horses. Finished much closer. Reckon will drift given the focus on the other big names. The risk might be the fast ground.
4.47 Sandown - Sassicaia 13/2ew too keen lto, but hugely unexposed.
5.22 Sandown - Flying Frontier 6/1ew
