Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Each Way Punting - Less Profitable?

Last week, ‘Nath’ asked me whether or not I’d be sitting on more cash had I have backed all my selections on the nose, rather than each way. So, I spent a couple of hours crunching in Excel. Well, Excel did the crunching and I did the creative accounting and it was insightful! This is not 100%, but it is very close.

My two big wins on this blog came courtesy of each way accumulators, so I felt it only fair to remove these initially, as I didn’t want to skew the numbers. You’ll read why later.

1) The split between Accumulators and Singles was an intriguing one for me. I’ve done £9k on accumulators! Clearly I’m chasing the dream, but irrelevant, the returns are far better compared to the singles betting!
  • Accumulators: Total Staked: £8,975.00, Total Returned: £16,400.32. Profit: £7,425.32
  • Singles: Total Staked: £43,660.38, Total Returned: £52,543.07. Profit: £8,882.69

2) In total, I staked £26,085.51 on Each Way singles! Now, here’s the interesting part:

As-Is:
  • Placed Returns: Total Staked: £6,793.94, Total Returned £11,172.01 Profit: £4,378.07 (This includes, NR, refunds, etc.)
  • Win Returns: Total Staked: £3,175.25, Total Returned £21,130.95. Profit: £17,955.70
  • Losers: Total Staked: £16,116.32, Total Returned £00,000.00. Profit: -£16,116.32
  • Total: Profit: £6,217.45


Could-Have-Been:
  • Placed Returns: Total Staked: £6,793.94, Total Returned £1,072.00 Profit: £-5721.94 (This includes, NR, refunds, etc.)
  • Win Returns: Total Staked: £3,175.25, Total Returned £32,347.73 Profit: £29,172.48
  • Losers: Total Staked: £16,116.32, Total Returned £00,000.00. Profit: -£16,116.32
  • Total: Profit: £7,334.22


So, yes, if I would have bet on the nose, and not each-way I’d be £1,116.77 better off. If I included the accumulators, I’d be far better off. I’ve not worked it out, but in order not to feel sick, I won’t, though it’ll be around 10k extra!

Will this change how I punt? Maybe. When I have more time, I’d be interested to see what odds range I'm making more return on and whether this means for example I should bet win only on 6/1 and below. But, that's for another time.

Either way, ’Nath’, yes you are right J

Dotted blue is where I'd be if I had bet Win-Only on singles


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