Bets 29/09/2013

A 255/1 Segal double is just what the doctor ordered yesterday. Good lad.

He has gone for Machete Mark 13/2 today in Curragh 3.45

A few Sunday punts:

Curragh 2.10 - Tested 13/2
Epsom 2.45 - Riverboat Springs 3/1
Curragh 3.45 - Kiss The Stars 12/1
Epsom 3.55 - Soryah 9/4

Bets 28/09/2013

Yesterday was a not a car crash. It was more akin to a train crash. Tom Pricewise Segal’s intuition for Miss France was only thing I won yesterday! has tipped up 3 today:

Haydock 3.30 – Demora 12/1

Newmarket 3.50 – Educate 16/1, King George River 22/1

Right Haydock for now, the rest slightly later..

Haydock 3.30 – No really juicy prices, which is annoying but guess a reflection of how open the race is. First pick has to be Masamah 10/1. Next Barracuda Boy 12/1 and then Cheviot 16/1. All have solid C&D form. Botti still going well and Masamah may still be competitive of this mark which is why shades my vote.

Haydock 5.15 – I’m going to give Suegioo 8/1 another go. Poor horse keeps going up in the weights without winning, but I think is improving. Harley needs to go slightly earlier on him and stay out of traffic. Chance in this smaller field to avoid the traffic too.

Haydock 5.50 – Quite possibly have missed the Short Squeeze 6/4 bandwagon, but he looked mighty impressive last two times out and 12lb could easily be shrugged off by the improvement left him alone as a 3yr old. Will have to be careful not to give Mont Ras too much of a lead though!

11.55am update..Right a pop at the rest:

Chester 1.55 – Rough Court 11/4 very unlucky last time ran here.

Newmarket 2.00 – 2 year olds burnt me yesterday but you can’t knock Berkshire Evs or the form. He dispatched Somewhat before and despite Johnston having a good record in this race will stick with Berky.

Chester 2.30 – Al’s Memory 10/1

Newmarket 2.35 – Joyeuse was lucky not to be beaten by Dorothy B last time and has been readily in place by Kiyoshi already so lien through those two. On the basis Vorda 2/1 has beaten Rizeena and Rizeena has been Kiyoshi I have to side with Vorda. Yesterday we saw how 2year old can just pop out of the blue so I’m not banking by any means. Come To Heel won Listed race with ease but second place not rated that highly. Princess Noor didn’t take to Newmarket and well if the other two rank outsiders pop up then sod betting on 2 year olds again

Chester 3.05 – Zain Eagle 2/1

Newmarket 3.10 – All the talk in inevitably about the rematch between Elusive Kate and Sky Lantern. I think Sky Lantern would have won that day without interference. Today Elusive Kate is down 2lb and Sky Lantern is up 3lb. The fact is I never seem to get it right with Sky Lantern but I think 5lb might give Elusive Kate the edge. La Collina is a Group 1 winner as is Duntle (albeit DQ), Just The Judge and Integral. If I had to punt I’d probably take 6/4 Elusive Kate w/o Sky Lantern, but no confident punt in this.

Ripon 3.15 – Xanthos 9/2

Newmarket 3.50 – Would be easy to get carried away and punt on so many. Last year there was a clear draw bias but it may be different this year? Have to look at bottom weight ones. Thair has solid course form and has been rated higher than this. Am slightly concerned by jockey at the mo and big field so might veer of this. Dance of Dance possibly one of the most unlucky handicap horses I know has at least got a rail draw which might help traffic problems. Forgive 33/1 was beaten by a handicap blot and has strong course form. No idea what has happened to Boonga Roogeta else would be in with a huge shout if you ignore last 3 races and finally Fat’s tip – Code of Honour 20/1. I have little confindence i anything, but if pushed probably King George River, Thair and Forgive

Chester 4.15 – Quatuor 7/1

Ripon 4.20 – Couple speculative bets for the day. San Cassiano 18/1 and Choisan 12/1 – both need to bounce back but if they do have decent chances.

Newmarket 4.25 – Meeting Waters 7/1 is clearly a good whack ahead of handicapper still

Newmarket 5.00 – Spin Artist 14/1 didn’t take to slow ground and didn’t loose as far at Lingfield as form suggests and actually Zero Money is not a bad marker. I hate Johnston and he mocks me every time I back one of his horses, but meh.

Newmarket 5.35 – Urban Dance 2/1

Bets 27/09/2013

Funny when you really fancy a horse to win (Astonishing) at the weekend in an average looking handicap and are really disappointed with 2^nd to then watch it bolt up by 7 lengths in a Listed race a few days later over same C&D. Annoying. Caucas was only winner yesterday but was only single I had so all good.

Newmarket 1.40 – You just don’t win maidens by 15 lenghts in a canter in a quick time. And when Radiator’s Evs nearest rival finished a few lengths behind Wedding Ring you know you have a smart filly. Midnite Angel ran well enough in the Sweet Solero and I do get Segals’ point about Fabre sending over Miss France however so guess have to tread carefully?

Newmarket 2.10 – I’m torn here between Maureen and Purr Along. I just can’t back anything Detorri rides at the moment but with her 3lb filly allowance it has to be Purr Along as 9/1 must be good value. Granted Igugu has solid form on my favourite track in world (Meydan), but tough ask on return. Estiqaama won last race by 8 lenghts. Might be foolish to ignore but half the price of Purr Along who has been racing in much higher grade

Newmarket 2.40 – Might be foolish to take on Soft Falling Rain and I do think a acc with faves is worth pursuing today, but the other two that stand out are Guest of Honour and Penitent. The former Segal has picked so has another good chance of a double today, but the latter won this last year and is in blinding form at the moment so 8/1 is again tempting. The price is reflection on fact ground is quick I imagine.

Newmarket 3.15 – Ithimal 9/4 is a horse I really like. Similar to Dettori I get concerned with all of Sil De Souz rides at the mo. He has ridden some bloody shockers. All the money seems to be for the other Goodolphin runner, but will have to step up big time. RIzeena is one I always seems to miss out on, but not convinced is a Newmarket horse.

Newmarket 3.50 – Yuften will go into the fave acca as looks the likely winner but Gilbey’s Mate 16/1 might be of interest as ran pretty well behind Outstrip on debut.

Newmarket 4.25 – Botti’s horses are so might be worth doubling Guest of Honour with Renew, but the horse I fancy is Testudo 10/1. Gatewood is the pick on figures, but I reckon Testy back in distance can take advantage of 3yr old allowance today.

Newmarket 5.00 – Clearly have to have a small each way on Classic Colori 20/1 who has been 2^nd in this race twice and is on a similar mark, but 3year olds have dominated this so have to focus on them. There’s very little between Morpheus and Silver Dixie except Silver Dixie is 10/2 double the price! Royal Prize 20/1 might be worth a dabble too as beat Top Notch Tonto here a couple of months ago.

Bets 26/09/2013

Pocketed a phat 4 figure Trixie with Grandeur, Gospel Choir and Cat O’Mountain yesterday. Good times.

Newmarket 3.10 – Has to be between the two top rated 3year olds. Phiz and Pastoral Court. The Reverse Forecast is 15/1

Newmarket 4.15 – Hmm again struggling to pick between two top rated in this. Slight preference for Caucus who won this last year, but Repeater on best form is not far off. R f/c is 8/1

Bets 25/09/2013

Ha – well after yesterday, bye bye stats man. Back to Jay Desai Punting Methodology:

Goodwood 2.30 – Not a race to go heavy on, but always keep an eye on a Hannon/Hughes runner. Sebastian Beach 7/1 was on the bridle for long enough. The way Hughes rides at Goodwood is set up for this as leaves it much later than others to play to advantages of the G’hills.

Goodwood 3.05 – Surely only 2 in this. Blue Surf who made me some decent cash last year and Gospel Choir who I’m a big fan of. The latter had an okay comeback and I’d back him @ 9/4 to walk this home if back to best. On ratings with Blue Surf given the same progression is pounds ahead.

Goodwood 3.40 – Grandeur 7/4 is clear on ratings and the form with Mukhadram is the closest to Al Kazeem. Must remember that Sugar Boy beat Galileo’s Rock but doesn’t really get a huge 3yr allowance anymore. Panther carries a penalty and not optimum trip.

Goodwood 4.15 – No Battalion to lump on again. Angus Glen looks on a decent mark on debut and step up in trip to suit

Kempton 8.00 – Cat O’Mountain 7/4. Strong C&D time, form and just hope 6lb rise not excessive

Bets 24/09/2013

Saturday was a bit of a car crash. I know not to expect more when I've done only a few minutes study per race. Strong correlation between my blogs starting, had little time to punt and failure rates!

Tomorrow is the start of a fresh chapter - back to early morning pre-work research now I don't need to be in the office at ridiculous o'clock

There is zero racing interest today so I've gone to the stats man. I've done NO research on these, but in a let's burn money mood today. Can't be arsed to write up today, but don't expect any return either.

Bets 21/09/2013

Not sure if will have time again today. More work and more weddings. Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped enough either way!:

2.20 Ayr - Trail Blaze 16/1
2.25 Newbury - Saxo Jack 8/1
3.30 Newbury - Steps 8/1
3.50 Ayr - Baccarat 12/1, Regal Parade 22/1

1.22pm update..Okay a quick stab

Ayr 1.30 – El Beau 7/1 far better weighted to turn tables with Braidley. That time out had poor start too.

Newbury 1.50 – Likely Kassiano is a shoe in, but on ratings is not that much clear and one horse who has stumped me in the past might restore my him today. Main Sequence 8/1 who arguable put up his best performance on soft ground behind Imperial Monarch has to be better value.

Ayr 2.05 – Shareston 11/4 been off for a while but the class in the field. Won Listed races before too so has proven class too.

Newbury 2.20 – Hughes says Anticapted 7/1

Ayr 2.40 – Lottery – Colonel Mak 14/1, Links Drive Lady 25/1

Newbury 2.55 – Disclaimer 13/2 must have a decent chance back in handicap company and reckon biggest threat is Voodoo Prince at a tasty 11/1. Unlucky not to win last time and down in trip no hinder.

Ayr 3.15 – Likely to be between Valonia and Remember You, but I nearly landed big with Azagal 12/1 couple weeks ago and I’ll again.

Ayr 3.50 – Stats and ground point towards Khubala 14/1 and Gabriels Lad 12/1

Newmarket 5.25 – Astonishing 9/4

Bets 20/09/2013

Argh Segal was up again today and had no idea!

Ayr 4.00 – Best Trip 18/1, but only 9/1 now available, Right Touch 16/1, but only 12/1 now available

Right a quick rattle through the card, but don’t have time to justify!:

Ayr 2.20 – Everyone loves a bit of Jedward 22/1

Newbury 3.05 – French Navy 6/5

Ayr 3.25 – Moidore 5/1

Ayr 4.00 – Cheveton 18/1

Bets 19/09/2013

4.40 Ayr – Beaumont’s Party 8/1 had some really good form back in May. Ground may help bring back some of that form. If Well Painted stays trip then a big danger.

6.40 Kempton – Everything looks pretty average except Zurbriggen Evs who should have won last time out

Bets 17/09/2013

Yarmouth 4.00 – On the face of it really tough, but Battalion 13/8 looks miles ahead of the handicapper

Thirsk 4.45 – Aqullila 13/8 solid comeback, should prove better

Bets 15/09/2013

Segal landed a phat 25/1*9/2 double yesterday. Legend. Glad Russian Soul finally got nose in front  too which was good news for the bank.

Segal’s Tips today:

1.30 Longchamp – Triple Threat 8/1

2.40 Longchamp – Tassday 9/1

3.10 Longchamp – Mandour 12/1

Arc Trial Day and yes just a warm up so ought to be careful with the favs, but sod it, they are class, although their biggest danger is the ground (esp Flintshire) and Segal’s picks!

1.30 Longchamp – Fintshire 7/4

2.08 Longchamp – Aiken 10/3

2.40 Longchamp – Treve 11/8

3.10 Longchamp – Orfevre 8/11

3.45 Longchamp – Olympic Glory Evs

3.50 Curragh – Ernist Hemingway 11/2, but Certerach 33/1 has a chance at a big price

4.25 Curragh– Toomore 7/4

Bets 14/09/2013 - St Leger

Segal has gone for a few today, but I hope he has not based it on soft ground like yesterday!

2.40 Doncaster – Doc Hay 12/1, Angels will fall 25/1

3.15 Doncaster – Viztoria 11/2

Could do with a good day today. Yesterday was close to some big accs but 3 2nd places stopped that!

2.05 Donny – Outstrip 9/4 must have best form in book and proven on this ground

2.20 Chester – You Da One 6/1 – Good form on course, consistent and might take this from the front with 3yr old allowance helping

2.25 Curragh – Don’t usually punt in Ire as am useless, but Russian Soul 15/2 3 place insurebet has to be good value. More ofthen than no always finds 1 or 2 too good but has a great chance today as Hitechen has a penalty and has lost Murtagh. Place market is interesting too.

2.40 Donny – Think Segal has found a couple of decent ones, but seeing as we are being paid 5 places, I’ll go Inxile 28/1, Barnet Fair 16/1, Elusivity 12/1. All on winnable marks, especially the former who has come down nicely in the weights back into handicaps like Doc Hay. Nearly went for Steps and El Viento, but can’t back them all, plus apparently high draw is key today?!

2.55 Chester – Camerland Highland’s OR is wrong. He is definitely better Tac De Bositron. 11/4 is generous.

3.15 Donny – Torn between the top 2 again, but with course form and more give in ground have to stick with the Gosden boy Gregorian 10/3

3.30 Chester – Quatour is a class above these but doubt nearly 2 stone better than Lilo Lil 6/1

3.50 Donny – I’ve already back Excess Knowlegde 20/1 Antepost. I think Secret Number 16/1 is over priced and Libertarian 7/1 has been overlooked because of one bad run

4.25 Donny – Voodoo Prince 5/1 has the best form on show

4.45 Chester – The most tentative bet of day goes to Electric Qatar 10/1. Over C&D last time was 6lb out the handicap, and is now 9lb lower, so that gives him another 5lenghts. Technically therefore would have come close to winning that race off this new weight but not in great form, hence the hesticancy.

6.05 Donny – The 2 G’dog runners have far better chances than the odds. Sandagiyr 10.1 was very close to Wentworth and Cape Peron and they are both group class and Pied a Terre 8/1 ran a decent race last time here and will be suited by step up.

Bets 13/09/2013

Couple of nicely priced winners in first two races yesterday but more burnt on life changing accumulators.. Tom Pricewise Segal has picked 2 today:

2.40 – Biographer 5/1

3.15 – Lady Lara 33/1

Today there are loads of 50/50 selections and am struggling a tad with getting off the fence

Doncaster 1.40 – Wind Fire 4/1 just. Wind Fire beat Ambiance in the Norfolk. Thunder Strike might be the better value as Hannon knows how to win this race and TS has C&D form, but I’ll stick with Wind Fire. Could go e/w 4/1 with ¼ odds if you fancy as still paying 3 places and can’t see her out of the top 3 with a filly allowance too.

Doncaster 2.10 – Shwaiman 5/2 just. He was a massive handicap blot last time. It’s a big step up in class, but we know he handles the course and is probably still well handicapped. Pethers Moon is a huge danger though, so this can’t be backed with a chunk.

Doncaster 2.40 – Well the market in my view is right. Not sure how you pick between Times Up, High Jinx and Biographer. No bet (except Segal pick), but put in accs

Doncaster 4.25 – Gramercy 8/1

Doncaster 5.00 – Can’t decide between Zain Eagle and Amralah. No bet, but put in accs

Bets 12/09/2013

Justineo cleaned up for me yesterday. Gutted Elkayeed was a NR and Expert was slightly frustrating, but still another few hundred bagged.

Didn’t realise Segal was in the house today, so missed his early prices! D’oh. However he has gone for:

1.40 Donny – Aqlaam Vision 12/1

2.40 Donny – Art Official 16/1, Stormy Paradise 14/1

I felt a big Goodolphin day coming up until the weather has screwed some of my earlier picks. Bugger.

1.40 Donny – Tough to call this but drawn to Atlantic Affair 14/1

2.10 Donny – This will be a great race. I think Maureen 2/1 is still good enough value as proven on this ground. Nargys has definitely regressed but 15/2 without Maureen might tempt me but I’ll think more carefully about that as I like Maureen’s chances.

2.40 Donny – Azagal 12/1 has the best form in my book and Tobougg Happy 18/1 has a very tempting price at the weights

4.25 Donny – Mayaasem 10/1. Could easily have backed 4 or 5 in this especially those with C&D form, but sticking with the Hills 3yr old.

5.00 Donny – Black Spirit 16/1 returns to a far more realistic level and on a very winnable mark. Just has to bounce back into form.

Bets 11/09/2013

Just one more week and I’ll have time to focus on this again. I’m worried I’ve missed a lot of critical form pointers and knowledge abosrbtion over the last 2 months, which not helpful, but a quick go again today:

Doncaster 2.30 – Expert 11/4

Doncaster 3.00 – Justineo 3/1. Will be vexed if Excelette wins. Followed for a while to no avail.

Uttoexter 3.50 – First in the Queue 6/1

Doncaster 4.10 – Elkaayed 6/4

Doncaster 4.45 – Regal Dan 8/1, Fils Angel 20/1, Secret Art 12/1

Bets 10/09/2013

Only thing have time to write is Varian double.

Bets 07/09/2013

Sweet patent brought me home 1k profit the other day so money to play with. Once again though in work so little time to research…and am at 6.00am so guessing on the ground as can’t find any reports yet.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has tipped up 7 today which does not happen very often. Clearly I will back them all as always despite my thoughts!

Ascot 1.55 – Field of Dream 16/1 – sure he always punts on him and Pythagorean 9/1

Haydock 2.05 – Jedward 14/1

Kempton 2.55 – Storm King 16/1

Haydock 3.15 – Suraj 20/1

Haydock 3.50 – Garswood 6/1

Leapordstown 5.45 – Caponata 9/1

Ascot 1.55 – Trail Blaze 16/1 decent C&D goes on most ground, Ryan going well, good enough draw, good chance. Is weighted to reverse form with Galician with claimer. Monsieur Chevalier 40/1 stupid price if you are willing to look at previous Ascot from with give in the ground over the years and the Lennox Stakes race which shows his mark is potentially low. Excellent Guest 28/1 nearly tempted me so might get bet later if market says worth a go.

Kempton 2.20 – Prince Bishop 8/1 but don’t rule out a Gdog 123

Haydock 2.40 – Was there to watch Montridge destroy his opposition last time out. 11/8 looks tasty

Kempton 2.55 – Hope we don’t see a surprise in this as Etheedam 5/1 looked really very good over C&D last time. Last years winner Shavansky 16/1 could go well at a price.

Haydock 3.15 – Give up on a few of these such as Blue Bajan and Suraj now. Lost me enough of money and I’ve lost the faith now. There is a lot of hype about Pallasator 4/1. Hasn’t run for nearly a year so hard to tell. Has been backed for the Ceasarwitch this morning to def of interest. Oriental Fox 10/1. Best form in book and Johnston has a good record in this race.

Ascot 3.30 – Café Society 5/1

Haydock 3.50 – Sadly I didn’t check the weather and I backed Lethal Force with a small wad. I’m going to hope it dries up somewhat but I don’t want to risk losing more on a horse. Clearly Garswood has a huge chance and if you backed 20/1 antepost you’ll be excited. I didn’t.

Leapordstwon 5.15 – Free Eagle 4/7 all day long. Reckon a good double up with Montridge.

Leapordstown 5.45 – Raider Kenhope 4/1 has best form.

Leopardstown 6.50 –I heart Kingsbarns 6/1 – ground might just turn in favour but this is more a sentimental bet.

Bets 05/09/2013

3.35 Haydock – Venue 6/5 can take advantage of 3yr old allowance

3.45 Salisbury – Joyeuse 4/6

7.40 Kempton – Tajheez 5/4

Patent anyone?

Bets 04/09/2013

Last bet of the day saved me yesterday!

Just one tasty one today:

Lingfield 4.50 – Al Jamal lump job 7/4

Bets 03/09/2013

Saturday didn't work out too well! Reminder to me about punting without doing the homework:

Leicester 3.40 – Bogsnog 8/1 steps up against older horses for first time. He ran a blinder behind a horse who had dropped hugely in the weights and the form is not bad for a C4. Clearly the price reflects the fact we don’t know whether he will stay the trip but worth a punt at the price

Leicester 4.15 – Romantic Bliss 6/1 for a trainer in form on a potentially very low mark back in trip and first time blinkers. And a claimer and good draw.

Lingfield 6.50 – Looks between Plenum and Drahem. I’ll go Plenum 2/1 without Drahem. Plenum looked pretty unlucky over C&D last time. Lanigan is hitting good form.

Lingfield 7.20 – Prospera 11/2 has run badly twice here, but that was without blinkers. Different horse with blinkers on. She won her last race on AW by 4 lenghts and the handicapper has not raised her to the equivalaent margin so potential for more and Beckett is in good nick.

Might be a Kirby Double at Mussleburgh worth looking at though on paper not sure.