Bets 09/05/2012

Tom Segal Pricewise tips for Chester Cup Meeting:

Chester 2.35 - Gulf of Naples, Eternal Heart
Chester 3.05 - Dickie's Lad

Will post my thoughts a bit later...

11.30am update....

Chester 2.05 -    Betterbetterbetter is a decent price at 5/2. I have no luck in backing O’Brien horses. When I do, they lose, when I don’t they win. Cubanita’s form behind Bonfire and on soft ground must put him in with a good chance at 6/1.

Chester 2.35 – Segal has tipped Gulf of Naples and Eternal Heart. I’m a huge fan of jumps horses switching to flat in staying events. Local Hero (nearly the other day) pulled off this feat and they are always well handicapped. Therefore Ile De Re 12/1 must have a chance with his form on soft ground. Can't forget Overturn, who I foolishly backed Antepost, but the ground looks against him.

Chester 3.05 – Segal has tipped Dickie’s Lad. I’ll tip Star Rover at 20/1 a solid C&D performer on a potentially nice mark.

Total Staked: £170.00, Total Returned: £268.95

Antepost Bets:

£20.00 Overturn 5/1 - PLACED £0.00

Todays Bets:

£10.00 e/w Dickie's Lad 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gulf of Naples 15/2 - PLACED £28.75

£10.00 e/w Eternal Heart 16/1 - PLACED £50.00

£10.00 e/w Ile De Re  12/1 - WIN £170.00

£10.00 e/w Star Rover 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Betterbetterbetter 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Cubanita 6/1 - PLACED £20.20

P&L @ 09/05/12:
£2,569.19
AntePost P&L @ 09/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 09/05/12:
£3,622.43

Week 12: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Initial Pot: £1500.00. Total Staked: £16,083.78, Total Returned: £19,607.26  = Profit: £3,523.48

The bridge across the boggy marsh from the jumps to the flat has cost me nearly £900 in the last month. Yes, it’s all profit, but yes, it’s painful, demoralising, annoying, expensive, frustrating, and worst of all Tom Segal has lost something like 32 bets in a row (excluding each-way wins). I’ve been looking forward to the flat for a while, and now I wish it had never come. The ground has not helped and Ballydole’s bloody pacemakers are popping up all over the place, again.

I just need to recompose and go back to basics. My stakes are wavy, confidence low and Pricewise aren’t helping. I’m nowhere near being banned by any bookie at the moment, but I always knew this would be a long term game with the stakes I started with. And yes after 6 weeks, I thought this would be easy peasy. Just need a cheeky little outsider in the Chester Cup tomorrow get me going again J

Bets 07/05/2012

Curragh 2.50 – I liked the look of Takar but so many of the favourites I pick first time back seem to flop. Might be safer sticking with a C&D winner who beat Nephrite last time out. Coolnagree (11/2)

Curragh 3.20 – Ishvana ran a cracker over C&D in March and am hoping Coolnagree will win the former race and boost the form chances. (I should wait to see the outcome, but I’m not sure the timings will worth with my plans today!!)

Curragh 4.25 – St. Nicholas Abbey is back in Ireland and primed to hack up here. The ground is only obvious concern but for value’s shake worth forecasting with Sharestan.

Kempton 4.50 – Could spend hours looking at this one. Perfect Cracker is now high in the weights but is awesome around Kempton and 16/1 looks value. Terdaad looks a decent horse in the making but has not run a in a long time. The other horse I have to back is Ashva.

Kempton 5.50 – Haamaat would have won his last race if it was over 6f. Was a quick time a looks set to go well here. Ray Of Joy last year’s winner may cause most problems 

£10.00 e/w Coolnagree 11/2 - PLACED £23.75

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£27.50 St. Nicolas Abbey/ Sharestan f/c N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Haamaat 11/8 - WIN £47.50

£20.00 Ishvana 13/8 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Ashva 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Perfect Cracker 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 06/05/2012

I’m back. Yesterday’s results may not clearly articulate that, but my daily bets produced a profit. My Ante Post bets all failed miserably. Tom Segal Pricewise had a solid place at 25/1 and I’m disgusted no bookie paid 4 places in the Kentucky Derby despite having 20 runners. (Maybe they did and I just blindly missed it). More damning as Tom Segal picked at 25/1 shot which came 4^th! Camelot was a star yesterday. All the hype was real but more importantly we know not to doubt when Ladbrokes are the shortest price bookie. It’s already happened at least 6 times this season. They are shortest again on Maybe today…

Newmarket 2.05 – A lot of the Triumph Crew of 2011 did me proud over the jumps season. Local Hero(12/1) didn’t manage to win, but he can make up for it here on the flat. Looks uberly well handicapped. Tom Segal agrees with me on this fact.

Newmarket 2.35 – Timepiece(7/4) is the class horse here. Cecil had two winners yesterday and TP is taking a drop in class here. This may not be all that easy though. Izzi Top looked mightily progressive but has now been off for a while and will have to concede 3lb today. Khawlah looks an even bigger danger, but will not like the ground. Came on massively from 2 to 3 yrs old and after two huge wins in Meydan last year might be interesting. Reading the notes from when she raced here on good to soft, it didn’t work out, so will stick with Timepiece.

Newmarket 3.15 – Tom Segal has picked Alla Speranza at 66/1 for the 1000 Guineas today! I’ve backed Maybe in a double with Camelot, so won’t go any further than that. Maybe looks like she’ll be tough to beat and Ladbrokes are yet again the shortest firm (Can’t ignore this). William Haggas’ records in big races is insane so Diala (16/1) must get a look. If you watch her 2^nd behind Lyric of Light must have a chance – looked unlucky and ran on. Think Discourse is the better of the two Zarooni runners. The other I’m tempted by is Mashoora (8/1). French Fifteen came close yesterday and their trial times show Mashoora the quicker horse. I’ve lost some Ante Post on Wading (Booo).

Newmarket 3.50 – Tom Segal has tipped Alben Star(14/1) and The Confessor(12/1). If Seal Rock is currently top of the market then Parisian Pyramid(16/1) is a bet to have. Ran massively wide due to stall draw in last race against Mirza and Seal Rock. I have no doubt would have finished very much closer and will do with a better draw this time!

Gowran Park 3.30 – Chrysanthemum looks the part.

Total Staked £220.00, Total Returned £172.50

Antepost Bets:
£15.00 e/w Wading 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

Today's Bets:

£10.00 e/w The Confessor 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Parisian Pyramid 14/1 - PLACED £67.50

£5.00 e/w Local Hero, Parisian Pyramid, Diala Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Alla Speranza 66/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Local Hero 12/1 - PLACED £60.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Alben Star 14/1 - PLACED £45.00

£20.00 Timepiece 7/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Chrysanthemum 8/11 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Maybe Camelot Double 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 06/05/12:
£2,516.49
AntePost P&L @ 06/05/12:
£1,073.24
Total P&L @ 06/05/12:
£3,589.73

Bets 05/05/2012

Pricewise Tom Segal from the RacingPost is on a 24 race losing streak and he has picked out 4 more today. Let’s hope he has some reversal in this and more importantly let’s hope I do. I’m getting butted at the moment and I’ve already lost 3 Antepot bets before the racing even starts today.

Newmarket 2.00 – A tough race. I’m veering towards Circumvent. Drop in trip, grade and fact has won on ground like this, puts him up there alone. Christophe gets the mount today and will go close (I hope). Need a boost like this to my form. Memory Cloth looks the danger to this.

Newmarket 2.30 – Segal has tipped up Sadeek’s Song. Al Zarooni’s record here is 28%!!! He pulverised Colombian who pulverised Poet on heavy ground last week. It’s an interesting bet, but we have Meandre and Dunaden here today. The former is the class horse in the race and Fabre has won this race twice before. The French could have a very very good day today!

Newmarket 3.10 – I’ve already got Born to Sea and Top Offer on Antepost, but I’m not convinced about either of these two anymore. Camelot has been shortest with Ladbrokes for a while now and we will find out how much they really know about Ballydole horses today. I might be tempted to forecast my selection with Camelot because he could easily hack up. There’s no real obvious class in this race and there are memories of St. Nicholas Abbey resemblances and worries about his breeding. The other O’Brien horse will be my first pick; Power. Dragon Pulse is a serious form line in the race and Power was unlucky not to win the Dewhurst. Could be an APOB 1-2. I’m ditching the Casper Netscher form now, after much deliberation. The other two who are interesting are Abtaal and Trumpet Major. Unfortunately I have much on across so many horses, unless a forecast comes in could be on the losing end even if I have a winner. If Power wins I’ll be all good as well as in and AntePost double with Merigo!

Tom Segal has picked Hermival.

Newmarket 3.45 – Tom Segal has tipped Night Carnation. I would have as well reading the form. The other is Mayson.

Newmarket 4.55 - This surely is between Mariners Cross and Noble Mission. Just depends who stays better. Mariners Cross and

Newmarket 5.30 - Rewarded has been heavily backed in this

Goodwood 2.15 – Vita Nova looks a class apart in this.

Saint-Cloud 4.50 - I've backed Kesampour for the Derby between 50/1 and 75/1 (albeit only about £7 on betfair) and am a huge fan. Can hopefully enhance claims today.

Churchill Downs 9.44 – Brilliant Speed can go close if reproduces from behind SNA.

Churchill Downs 11.24 - Not sure I can pick something out here. Segal has picked Went The Day Well. Gemologist is on the up and has raced on a mucky track before so might be interesting?

Total Staked £550.00, Total Returned £415.39


Antepost Bets:

£50.00 Most Improved 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Harbour Watch 22/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Power, Merigo Double N/A - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Top Offer 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£40.00 Born To Sea 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

Daily Bets:

£10.00 e/w Sadeeks Song 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hermival 25/1 - PLACED £72.50

£20.00 Mariners Cross 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gemologist 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Rewarded 10/3 - WIN £86.67

£20.00 Circumvent 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Meandre 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Vita Nova 4/7 - WIN £31.43

£40.00 Vita Nova 2/5 - WIN £57.78

£10.00 e/w Mayson 5/1 - WIN £82.50

£10.00 e/w Night Carnation 16/1 - LOSE £20.00

£5.00 e/w Power Camelot r/fc N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Brilliant Speed 12/1 - PLACED £34.00

£10.00 e/w Went The Day Well 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Power 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Kesampour 1/2 - WIN £30.51

P&L @ 05/05/12:
£2,553.99
AntePost P&L @  05/05/12:
£1,103.24
Total P&L @ 05/05/12:
£3,657.23

Bets 03/05/2012 - No Bets

Colour Vision was absolutely superb yesterday and I was naive to think his super staying effort behind Fame and Glory would be curbed by the AW @ Kempton. Desai Jnr was not so naive. Thankfully Gusto's competitors were slightly held back by the surface, although I did call 1,2,3 in that race.

Still feeling cautious on the betting front, but inevitably that will all change at the weekend. THE CLASSICS ARE HERE!!! The ground gamble continues and my ante post bets continue to flop, but I still have a few cheeky ones left in including Top Offer and Born To Sea

Whilst I can't add any betting value today, I am hoping those of you love Ascot will absolutely heart the New Furlong Club. This is as close to VIP as I'll get in the immediate future, although arguably I'm just paying more, so no resemblance to VIP at all...

http://www.ascot.co.uk/furlong/index.html

Bets 02/05/2012

Some big races at Kempton today. I don't have time to lookie lookie fully but:

Kempton 4.20 - Gusto excels at Kempton. If it was not on AW I would look at Burwaaz and Bannock

Kempton 3.45 - Red Cadeux nearly landed a big prize in Auz, but Dunaden has now pipped him twice. He is clearly the class horse in this, but again we are treading AW and Thimaar who was mighty impressive over C&D must get the nod

Total Staked £20.00, Total Returned £27.50

£10.00 Gusto 7/4 - WIN £27.50
£10.00 Thimaar 2/1 - PLACED £0.00

P&L @ 03/05/12:
£2,478.60
AntePost P&L @ 03/05/12:
£1,313.24
Total P&L @ 03/05/12:
£3,791.84