Bets 08/02/2013

Had Surfer 20/1 rocked in yesterday would have been a happy man. Still content as am heading in the right direction and another big one will come! I hope. Tomorrow looks immense, so only a few today.

Bangor 1.30 – Golden Hoof 5/6 (Acc job). Hendo in good form and OR although we know Hendo horse often get merked by BHA, suggests has 8lb advantage.

Bangor 2.00 – Violin Davis 4/9 (Acc job). She goes here at Kempton too and should be a banker but too many short price burn outs for me of late.

Bangor 3.10 – I really tried to avoid looking at this card. Managed to avoid it for 5 minutes and then couldn’t decide between 5 horses. Rather than backing them all will just plump for Double Dizzy 12/1 who goes the distance and on the ground an on a good enough mark to win this. C&D winner Dermatologiste, Ten Fires, Presented and My Boy Paddy were the rest on shortlist.

Kempton 4.00 – Pete The Feat 2/1, back in trip and down in class to weight rise shouldn’t be a problem. (Acc job and single)

Newcastle 1.50 – Risky bet on Blazing Diva 8/1. Appears to pick up from around this time of year, goes on heavy, goes here and on a very lowly mark. These are perfect C&D conditions for him so no excuses but is not in very good form

Total Staked £130.00, Total Returned £161.25

£30.00 Pete The Feat 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Blazing Diva 15/2 - PLACED £37.50

£20.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - PLACED £56.25

£15.00 e/w Double Dizzy 14/1 - PLACED £67.50

Bets 07/02/2013

Ouch. Whitewash yesterday. 8 races, no return. Buggereeno. Staying away from Class 4 and below as it merked me yesterday. Can Meydan rescue me today?

Clonmel 3.40 – Call The Police Evs based on last time out of every horse on the card. With the form I’m in over jumps no doubt something will bounce back and win! Grr

Doncaster 2.30 – Wings Of Smoke 7/2 has rock solid form to boast over this distance. The question is more whether he’ll take to Donny.

Doncaster 3.05 – Hada Men 11/2 again has decent form in the book, back down in class and stable still in good form

Doncaster 3.35 – Off The Ground 9/1 has been jumping left, so Donny will suit, back with Dom onboard and must go close based on penultimate race. This is though pretty open with lots of decent form lines.

Huntingdon 3.15 – Although Calculated Risk nailed me a big one, I don’t think the form has worked out that well. If you use Little Dutch Girl as a marker Sky Khan and Angelot Du Berlais should certainly not be bigger in the market. There’s a little bit of money coming in for Brinestine 6/1 for the Triumph so it may be worth taking a chance with this one

Meydan 3.15 – Hard. Layali Al Andalus (Placed). Had a 6lb allowance last time with claimer and that’s about 3 lengths over this distance. Will put in an e/w acc only

Meydan 4.25 – Music chart (Placed). Emotif is meant to be the real deal, so might be a threat. Will put in e/w acc only.

Meydan 5.00 – Sadly folks another tough race. I thought I’d go straight in for Ahzeemah but when you watch the last race the one who was really flashing home was Star Empire 6/1 who escapes a rise unlike Azhy. Again will put in e/w acc only.

Meydan 5.35 – Not getting any easier but this time I’m taking a chance with Surfer 20/1. A lot to like about the progressiveness and ability over C&D. Think has been overlooked by horses with ‘potential’. But the ratings suggest has no chance so is a risk as the price suggests.

Meydan 6.10 – I don’t know whether to stick with Ariete Arrollador or go with a horse I like in Kinglet 17/2. The latter it is. 

Total Staked £330.00, Total Returned £403.50

£30.00 Call The Police Evs - WIN £60.00

£15.00 e/w Hada Men 11/2 - WIN £138.00

£15.00 e/w Off The Ground 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Brinestine 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Kinglet 17/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Surfer 16/1 - PLACED £63.00

£30.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Star Empire 6/1 - WIN £142.50

£30.00 Zamdy Man 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Wings of Smoke 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 06/02/2013

Tempting to lump on short price favourites today, but I won't. Will bundle some of them up instead.

Carlisle 2.20 - Vulcanite 8/13 looks a couple classes above these.

Carlisle 2.55 – Hidden Identity 5/6 gets a solid 10lb and again short price but should do the job

Carlisle 3.30 – The Friary 11/4 looks well handicapped

Carlisle 4.05 – Knockara Beau 10/3 can win this race again. Not a bad effort last time out, and the old boy can prevail.

Ludlow 2.10 – Reginaldinho 11/10 looks very good, but the value may be with Danandy 25/1 or 12/1 w/o the favourite. There’s some PTP nuggets over similar conditions and he could be very well in.

Ludlow 2.40 - Smash n grab on New Year’s Eve 1/3

Ludlow 3.30 – Valmari 3/1 has jumping issues yes but looks a good price as a result

Ludlow 4.55 – Copper Birch was only a slight way behind At Fishers Cross. A Hendo and Nicholls unknown in this so be interesting to see if either of them prevails as will have great chances at Cheltenham

Kempton 6.35 – Wakeup Little Suzy 7/2 shaped well behind 

Total Staked £210.00, Total Returned £0.00

£30.00 Wake Up Little Suzy 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Danandy 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w The Friary 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Knockara Beau 10/3 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Valamari 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Vulcanite Evs - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

Year 1: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Initial Pot: £1500.00. Total Staked: £75,116.42 Total Returned: £96,537.01  = Profit: £21,420.59

Wow! Happy 1st Birthday  Blog! Sorry I've neglected you! Hopefully the £21k will make up for it?

It’s been 20 weeks since I’ve written a weekly update, so a timely update I feel. Still, pretty lazy considering how arousing gee gee punting is. Since then, I’ve wagered circa 26k in return for 31k. Not bad, eh? I’ve been preoccupied with multiple distractions; COD, Fats daily picture updates, iphone apps and lashing. Lost time to several unavoidable circumstances; work, funerals and more work. And invested time in lifestyle choices; gym, marriage & cooking. All culminating in less time for blogging updates. I doubt this’ll change until after the stag in none other than Vegas and the wedding in April. Clearly I’m so attune to horses I subconsciously planned the Big Day on Grand National Day. Jokes. Wasn't so funny when I told Jess I want a big screen at the wedding to watch the Wyck Hill land my retirement…

Some random nuggets that may have popped up in the last 20 weeks of non-existent updates:

• End of the Flat Season - The name Frankel has been less used of late, but he’ll live on forever. Will we see another like him? I freaking hope so. We need to update the Oxford dictionary. Any thoughts? Frankel. Dfn – to well and truly merk. Usage – ‘Arsenal frankelled West Ham’. ‘Sprinter Sacre will frankel his opposition in the QMCC’, although Sprinter will no doubt have his own entry one day too, and yes the past tense requires a double L. My P&L will show that the Hurricane Higgins and Sir Graham Wade was my most successful moment of the flat season. Both were Segal selections, yes, but I called Hurricane out as massively overpriced the day before and his tip up led me to the double, so thanks Tom. The only other horse I called out as massively overpriced didn’t disappoint @ 20/1. I massively benefited from following form. Mount Athos, the late Newfangled, Olympic Glory and Danedream lines all boosted my purse and the ones I wish I’d trusted but didn't were Mince and Jack Dexter.
  
• Start of the Flat Season – Only place I look at in the dawn of the season. To the man who rates these bad boys and racy chicks. Matthew Tester. He quoted Workforce as the dark horse the year he won the Derby, Carlton House to give the Queen a royal Derby winner (was uber close) and he was also right about last year's crop - average. This year his selection for the 1k is Just The Judge @ 20/1. Next year is going to be immense. I can feel it. Just bring us some bleeding sunshine.
  
• P&L – Clearly it’s all about the accumulators but unfortunately I’m pants at working out the best value accumulators. Two £15 e/w doubles have resulted in 6k and 7k returns so rather than all this £2.50 e/w treble x 20 lines nark I need to grow some balls and punt on a handful of horses with max bet (£30). The graph resembles some form of dinosaur skeleton; Buncosaurus?

• Discipline – Lost that. Naughty. Max bet (£30) has to stand. Graph below shows I have been boozing and flirting with debt of late, but thankfully no hangover or herpes. I entered the chasing game other weekend and Mr Watson bailed me out, but it could have wiped out my Vegas fund and then some. 

• Weather – Gash. Seriously, wtf. Not peeved with cancellations as London transport has me well trained, but what happens if Cheltenham is firm. How the hell do we assess genuine current form on that ground when all we've seen is ground resembling the sewers in London in 1848. Class is class, and class generally prevails irrelevant of ground, but calling those wide open races becomes all the more difficult. This is just my blabber, but it has stopped me from piling into Antepost bets.
  
• Antepost Bets – I have a few to write off. Darlan – RIP. Newfangeld – RIP. I’m hoping the bookies will start offering NRNB soon. I’m gagging for it. Give it to me. Please. I've not tucked into any of Tom ‘Pricewise’ Segal from the RacingPost bets except for Cotton Mill.

• Will anyone ever ban me? – I’m struggling to be honest. There was a period where WillHill were sending most of my bets to their trader but Boylesports might be the most likely. My P&L with each of the bookies is below, although I’m now limiting my betting with any of them who do not offer Best Price Guaranteed. Paddy Power, Stan James, Bet365, Boylesports and BetVictor are generally the ones I’m homing in on as they offer BPG.
  
  

  Row Labels	Sum of Profit
  Bet365	-£184.80
  Betfair	£900.48
  BoyleSports	£235.50
  Ladbrokes	£678.66
  Paddy Power	£2,681.45
  Skybet	-£231.13
  Sportingbet	£267.17
  Stanjames	£1,268.41
  WillHill	£8,397.73
  Totesport	-£90.00
  Betfred	£119.75
  BetVictor	£5,910.67
  888.com	£1,466.70
  Grand Total	£21,420.59

  
  
  
• Cheltenham and Grand National – Nothing insightful, yet. Merry King and Wyck Hill are two I’m excited about.
  
• Meydan – Seem to have picked up a trick or two. Draw, surface(tapeta) and ones flying home over a shorter distance in like races appear to be working well for me.
  
• Stats & Videos and looking for potential – No substitution for fact. Videos - Worth the investment. Stats - Trainers with records in races at specific tracks when in good form are worth investigating. The RP gives you it all. Looking for potential though is tough. It's what Segal breathes. I’m not experienced, I don’t claim to know what I’m doing but I’m learning and that’s what led me to the Calculated Risk and King Helissio double. Bosh.

Right, I’m teetering out of random thoughts. Bring on some more racing.

Bets 03/02/2013

I don't understand how Loyalty drifted even further, but I'm complaining. On paper it doesn't make sense. A 6/1 Meydan winner and Carruthers kept me above water yesterday. No time for explanations or any real studying today but a few more for the books today:

Musselburgh 1.00: Overturn 1/3 (in an acc only)

Musselburgh 2.00: Tap Night 5/6

Punchestown 2.20: Sizing Europe 1/6 (in an acc only)

Punchestown 3.20: Segal has tipped Alderwood 11/2

Total Staked £90.00, Total Returned £28.50

£30.00 Tap Night 5/6 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Alderwood 9/2 - PLACED £28.50 P&L @ 03/02/13: £19,017.42 AntePost P&L @ 03/02/13: £2,403.17 Total P&L @ 03/02/13: £21,420.59

Bets 02/02/2013

In Paris this weekend and last night and I was duly informed by an article I randomly read that Fofana is the man to be on for top try scorer. Okay then. I would much rather have watched Diamond Frontier rock in at 25/1 instead of being second but the Six Nations does have an appeal.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone mental again with 4 bets. He's on a BAD run again, and it's costing me bucks:

Ffos Las 2.05 - The Romford Pete 16/1, Tanerko Emery 5/1

Ffos Las 2.40 - Carruthers 14/1

Sandown 3.35 - Summery Justice

My thoughts shortly....

Ffos Las 2.05 - Interesting is Balder Success but trainer says horse doesn't like big fields. Oscara Dara surprised me last time but now surely is merked by weights and step up in class? Pipe reckons Tankerko Emery is on to be on, so does Segal so will stick with his two selections.

Ffos Las 2.40 - Carruthers is a horse I really like and Segal is right to back him at the prices. I have a problem with this race because I really like both Cannington Brook 11/2 and Shaking Hands 8/1. Argh

Ffos Las 3.45 - A number of these swtiching back to hurdles and lots of potentially well handicapped horses. I'm going to have half bets on Ski Sunday 12/1 and Jumps Road 14/1 based on C&D form on heavy and formlines.

Sandown 1.50 - You have to back something with the Williams Wishes formline over C&D. Trouble is which one. I seemingly can't watch videos from abroad on RP which is annoying, but at the prices I'll go with Falcon Island 10/1

Sandown 3.35 - Not backing Segal's tip in this (at my own peril). Instead I like Keppols Hill 9/4

Wetherby 2.45 - Sammys Gone 4/1 looks decent and Hobbs going well at the moment

Lingfield 3.30 - Put a line through last race and Loyalty 12/1 is too big

Meydan on saturday's tend to be harder to call than Thursday's so not going overboard. Prices aren't yet up either but I'll still back them

Meydan 2.50 - Journalistic has potential on this mark and it all depends whether Fallon can bring him from the back to breeze home.

Meydan 3.25 - Al Razi is in blinding form and claimer who knows the horse has good chance to rock in again

Meydan 4.35 - Last Fighter 5/4 has been slapped with an 8lb rise. One he can defy as had heaps in hand

Total Staked £480.00, Total Returned £513.75

£7.50 e/w Jumps Road 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£7.50 e/w Ski Sunday 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Falcon Island 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sammys Gone 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Loyalty 20/1 - PLACED £90.00

£15.00 e/w Tanerko Emery 4/1 - PLACED £30.00

£15.00 e/w The Romford Pele 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Carruthers 8/1 - WIN £180.00

£15.00 e/w Shaking Hands 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Cannigton Brook 11/2 - PLACED £30.00

£30.00 Keppols Hill 9/4 - LOSE £0.00 £45.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Journalistic 14/1 - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Al Razi 5/1 - WIN £123.75 £30.00 Last Fighter Evs - WIN £60.00

Bets 01/02/2013

5 solid winners yesterday, but I'm really vexed with myself. I misread rerouted's form in a race which was a big clue for his win. I read it as a handicap as opposed to a NH race. Argh. That would have been a sweet £7.5k as I landed the other 3 at Meydan. Genuinely never been this annoyed at lack of attention to detail. I won't get over this one easily, but just have to make sure it doesn't set that chasing chip off in my head. I still made a couple hundred quid yesterday. Take it and be happy Desai.

Lingfield 1.00 - Gary Moore has won this race twice before and Ryan Moore has been booked on Galiotto 4/1. I shouldn't back this, I know I shouldn't because on paper he shouldn't win, but I'm doing it for the stats. But, I almost want to lose so I don't do it again.

Catterick 1.40 - Hidden Justice 4/6

Catterick 2.10 - Marie Des Anges 8/11

Catterick 2.45 - Was a bit tipsy last night and saw Tell Me Y 6/1 beat At Fisher's Cross. Thankfully only put usual stake on. Being tipsy didn't check anything else and actually that was at 2m not 3m so totally different proposition. I wouldn't back it now, but it's too late for me.

Catterick 3.55 - Diamond Frontier 20/1. Probably in decline, but Wade has a decent chase strike rate here and if in the right mood is on a very low mark with an additional 7lb claim.

Wolves 6.30 - Aryal 4/9

Dundalk 6.50 - Pique Sous 4/6

Total Staked £250.00, Total Returned £179.00

£15.00 e/w Diamond Frontier 20/1 - PLACED £75.00

£15.00 e/w Tell Me Y 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Aryal 4/9 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Hidden Justice 4/6 - WIN £54.00

£30.00 Marie Des Anges 8/11 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Pique Sous 4/6 - WIN £50.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Galiotto 4/1 - LOSE £0.00