Bets 31/07/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 2

I went a bit OTT yesterday and ended up backing 30 horses. But 4 were winners at 20/1, 20/1, 12/1, 9/2 and 10/1, 25/1, 8/1, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1, 16/1 shots placed too. Good day I say. Shame I still managed to lose £200 on accumulators. Nothing came in.

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for a few more today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Sohar 16/1

Galway 5.30 – Romanesco 12/1, Muirhead 33/1

This was the day last year I landed 5 races at Goodwood (http://banjaydesai.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/bets-01082012-glorious-goodwood-day-2.html) Segal and I landed Hurricane Higgins at 33/1, Segal landed Sir Graham Wade 14/1 and I landed My Queenie 16/1. I made £8,000. How I could do with a bit of the same today.

Goodwood 1.55 – Feck. Erm. High Office 33/1 looks a daft price. Goes with cut in the ground and was 10 lengths behind horses like Ile De Re and Tominator in decent races. Is now 10lb lower and has been running okay. I guess the price is big because hasn’t raced beyond 2m and not proven on this track. But he def stays on and is def worth a chance. Seaside Sizzler 12/1 is def a better horse with visor on and is in shite hot form. Only a bit higher when 2^nd in this race before. I backed Bayond last year and placed, but think might be beyond him today. Lieutneant Millar and Borxborne def have the best chances at the weights in this but I don’t like their draw or price. Johnston’s Good Morning Star probably worth a fiver

Goodwood 2.30 – This is perhaps not as straightforward as it initially looks. I was going to be all over Cap O’Rushes, but then two things happened. One I think was flattered in Irish Derby as was a pacesetter and two have seen Excess Knowledge 7/4 getting cut by a few bookies for the St Leger. Has been hammered in today too. I’m going to be a mug and follow the money.

Goodwood 3.05 – This is a race for 3yr olds so I rule DOW out. Backing against Hannon/Hughes at Goodwood is brave especially as looked so unlucky last time out. However let’s be clear, Dawn Approach 6/5 is the best miler in the world. Simple and class must prevail on these slightly cutting conditions. I just can’t help this nagging feeling that Hughes might win the race, not the horses, Hughes and he calls this his banker of the meeting!!! I’m sticking with DA and perhaps tickling the trifecta – DA/TOR, DOW.

Goodwood 3.40 – Ertijaal looked mighty impressive in his second race and Toormore 7/4 a huge looking horse beat Erti on debut. I fully expect a win here with Hughes. Also Hannon/Hughes have won this with favs last 3 years in a row

Goodwood 4.15 – On pedigree, trainer form and trainer success with first time out 2yr olds – Stars Above Me 16/1. Shouldn’t bet, but it’s Goodwood after all J I seemingly had my head screwed on last year and did not bet in this race.

Goodwood 4.50 – I think Close At Hand 13/2 will laugh at the handicapper on a mark on 76. Firstly look at how highly some the horses in that maiden are rated. Secondly look at the race against Saucy Minx. She flew home, but when level with a few other horses pulled back. Headgear will fix that and did in last race when walked home and Saucy Minx is 7lb higher than Close At Hand today, so tables have to be turned. If Steer By The Stars wins, Johnston better be freaking investigated. Clearly I’m having a fiver on it though. Ribbons has to be respected, but think draw and weight hopefully against her. I hope Jabhaat didn’t run one false race and I think I’d be mad not to have a nibble on Great Timing 4/1

Goodwood 5.25 – Freakaleek – Erm Johannes is tempting on mark and last race. He has won twice at this festival too but surely the old boy can’t pull this off on slower than ideal ground. Askaud in good form and decent over C&D but think 6lb hike just too far above a winnable mark. Espirit De Midas is being smashed in the betting but that is surely because Ivory’s last 4 horses have won. Not convinced the track suits him. Brave Echo might find this hard from that draw as likes to front run so will be tough and think Good Authority probably still better treated. Same for Tidentime. Right 4 left to get through. Hughes is going to pull off some magic with Magic City from this draw and 6/1 is short, but Hughes can navigate round Goodwood so does have a chance. I can’t get my head round Spirit of Sharjah. With such a big crowd is it worth being held up to try and navigate through traffic. I think is a better handicapped horse that My Kingdom but My Kingdom races prominently and has a low draw so traffic less of a problem. Argh. Okay so, I think Good Authority 10/1, My Kingdom 11/1, Spirit of Shar 20/1 and Magic City 6/1 all have chances. I don’t have any more time to mull this over.

Leicester 8.10 – It’s in my tracker Clubland 7/2

Bets 30/07/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 1

Sod the stats game again! That cost me 4 bets. But a cheeky Weld double and two decent e/w punts on Admiral Barry 33/1 and Top othe Ra 20/1 was just want I needed before the start of Goodwood! Tom Pricewise Segal has picked out 4 today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Clon Brulee 10/1

Goodwood 3.40 – Sir Graham Wade 12/1

Galway 6.45 – Brendan Brackan 20/1, Swiflty Done, 20/1

I’m blindly putting a fiver on all Johnston horses and an accumulator and same with Hannon & Hughes J

Goodwood 1.55 – Blue Surf 7/1 is a C&D winner loves deep ground, but is versatile and form over 10f is sound, but perhaps too high in the weights? I’ve gone through the card and either soft ground rules them out or I just don’t think they can hack it at this level. However one horse who I backed last time and think will like the step down in trip and has run well on soft is Tepmokea 25/1. I think he is too big, although to overcome the draw will need to be dropped behind and then driven through field which is def not style. But on basis gets 12f on soft means a few extra yards may not be out of the question. Fast or Free will have to be mega fit for first race of campaign on testing ground.

Goodwood 2.30 – This is tough. I think the ground is going to be mega testing for these kids and so those rested might have an advantage? Problem in Anticapted who is following a similar path to Zebedee has soft ground in blood from Whipper, but then again Supplicant who beat him last time out is far fresher and Kyllachy kids handle soft too. Hughesy rides for Hannon have always finished ahead of any others jockeys for Hannon in this race, but with conditions like this surely will come too soon for Anticapted, even though clearly Hughes dropped him away when now chance with winner. Therefore I elect Supplicant 10/3 who wins on form along and a punt on Brown Sugar 14/1 who just didn’t settle last time. Looked very quick on the bridle in penultimate race and pedigree suggests ground will be fine.

Goodwood 3.05 – I doubt Aljamaaheer will run and with a penalty would surely have been tough anyway. Will producer handle the going? Flopped when was heavy once and no idea when writing this how soft it will get, but Dutch Art pedigree should me does. However Hughes is dead keen on this so must be of interest. I think I’m going to regret taking him on but I have to with Garswood 9/2. Fahey thinks a lot of this horse and is in tremendous form. 3yr olds have a decent record in this with their allowance and we know the horse goes on soft/heavy ground. Professor and Casper Netscher are still on my short list and can’t find any reason to remove them

Goodwood 3.40 –This is very tough, but first and foremost Suraj 25/1 is the one that straight away looks wrongly priced.. 14f perfect, ground no problem, down in weights, Queally onboard. Montaser really peeved me off last time but also ground wrong for him today. I think Guarantee 12/1 has a better chance than SGW based on previous races.

If I get a chance will hit rest of Goodwood and Galway..

4.30pm update..harder still

Goodwood 4.50 – I’m torn between Jack’s Revenge, Democretes, Uppercut (winner I picked last year), and Juvenal. The first two are on my watch list, both handicapped well enough. Two of these are Hannon gees.

Goodwood 5.25 – I’ve been waiting to back Tioman Legend for a while. Now is the time in first time blinkers back in trip. But this is really open and can’t choose between Cruise To The Limit, Valima, Fair Value and Waseem Faris

Galway 6.10 – Tarfasha only if another short price for an acc

Galway 6.45 – With Segal on this. Swiftly Done.

Galway 7.15 – Pirate Cove  but only in a double with Tarfasha

Bets 29/07/2013

So clearly going of course and letting loose was a ridiculous thing to do. Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up two today for the Galway. I had no idea he was putting some up today so missed the prices. Bugger.

Galway 6.45 – Call Me Bubbles 8/1, Rossvoss 16/1

Purely based on trainer form, record in types of races:

Wolves 3.15 – Pure Mischief 10/3

Wolves 5.15 – Hi Filwah Evs

Windsor 6.00 – Meeting Waters 7/2

Right now back to reality and time for the Blind backing Dermot Weld show!:

Galway 5.10 – Diplomat 8/11. Weld/Walsh. Too short to back as single, but in the Weld Acc

Galway 6.10 – Mustajeeb Evs. Weld/Mullins

Galway 6.45 – Notable Graduate 15/2. Weld. Segal has tipped two up in this (Call Me Bubbles 8/1 – can see why, Rossvoss 16/1 - has some solid form behind Justification and 2miles looks ideal. Has won here before and low draw decent) so I’ll go for two too J Cry For The Moon 12/1 is 1lb lower than when 2^nd in this last year. Frick there are loads who could win this. Redera 14/1 if takes to Galway looks a few pounds ahead of handicapper with claimer onboard. Money for Gretzky 33/1 but not sure why? Admiral Barry 33/1 looks a crazy price to me. Has won this before technically of the same mark when negate claimers and the last race, ground would have been too quick. I’m surprised Marchese Marconi is also 16/1. Form behind Well Sharp and miles ahead of Justification in race. Knockcroghery doesn’t look out of it. Bloody hell. What to go with?

Well I like both Segal’s picks and think I’ll have to go for Cry For The Moon 12/1 and Admiral Barry 33/1. Guess have to back the Weld horse

Galway 7.15 – Weld has a poor record in this, so ignoring his horse. Doc Holliday 6/1 looks like he is on a joke of a mark after a long absence but not sure about the ground and if it is a problem I think Rock on Coco 12/1 looks like has conditions set up perfectly especially from low draw.

Galway 7.45 – Weld’s horse is Pay Day Kitten 2/1

Galway 8.15 – Weld’s horse is Martys Magic 7/4 but I would back Top Othe Ra 20/1. I’d be really excited about this if Mullins was in good form, but he’s not

Bets 28/07/2013

After Sirius Prospect came home was hoping for big day. Ha. Totally out of shape so I'm letting loose today on races would never normally bet on and in an alien manner. Need some freedom and no expectations.

Pontefract 2.20 – Let’s open a risky offshore fund 33/1. Wasn’t thumped by Ambiance on debut and rider unbalanced in next race. Notes say was a lot of money on debut for horse so perhaps interesting.

Ascot 2.30 – Etaad 9/2 is only one with pattern entry and Hills won with last 3 horses

Deauville 2.40 – Segal has tipped Chigun 9/1 but surely this is belongs to Elusive Kate 3/1 or Duntle 5/1?

Ascot 3.05 – Nave 7/1 might just step up to the plate today to complete hatrick. Tough ask but chance handicapper not caught up. Hopefully Saytara needs run back

Pontefract 4.05 – Arsaadi 6/1 defeat to Galician when giving 6lb doesn’t looks so bad now. Again tough ask but chance

Ascot 4.15 – Haylaman 7/1 back to 10f and in class – right choice. For some bizarre reason Jonno 14/1 with tongue strap is calling me, but really don’t know why

Ascot 5.20 – Segal has tipped up Steps 16/1 I’m going to wean myself of these big handicap races especially when there are 4 or 5 I fancy. Alhtough I landed Masamah couple weeks ago I lost 4 others in that race and plenty more since. Galician must be one of the most frustrating horses for me. Backd 3 times to no avila and yet has won two huge pots and huge prices. Lord of The Dance is another, but at least got one good 16/1 win out of him. Shame missed the other 16/1 and 25/1! The reason I’m saying this is because I was really chuffed to land Another Wise Kid 25/1 and think should stick by side whilst in good heart. The other will stick with is Ahtoug 12/1. Lightly raced this season, decent enough C&D form too.

Bets 27/07/2013

Only one real winner yesterday! Picture Dealer/Mon Brav forecast 32/1. Kinda saved me from more despair as this comment “I’ll be peaved if Johnston pulls this one off” about Broxbourne did and then Best Be Careful came a close 3rd @ 16/1. A further handful of second places. Just pure frustration. To Mr. Anonymous, glad you are doing well! Let me know when we agree and I’ll double in too!

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has tipped up four today:

Ascot 2.40 – Intrigo 10/1
Ascot 3.15 – Loving Spirit 16/1, Hefner 50/1
York 3.30 – Baccarat 12/1


Right, wary of rain and my form so stakes lowered for today:

York 1.50 – I’m going to learn a bit about how individual horses fair with top weight on Maven 8/1. Handicapped well enough to go close but let’s see how goes with 10stone to shoulder

York 2.20 – If Smarty Socks could hear me he’d be livid with me, but the last few times I’ve backed him he has done me proud but at around 8/1. But, today at the prices I have to be with Sirius Prospect. Back to handicapping, has been running to his mark and he’s won here at the level on a similar mark so 8/1 is decent

Ascot 2.40 – There is a lot of hype about Cape Peron 9/2. Even Segal thinks he is the one to beat today, quoting “probably Group class”. I had a few too many beers last night and instead of putting £30, I accidently added an extra 0 to it. Oh dear. Oh dear indeed. I hope the race really does arrive!

Newmarket 2.45 – Can’t quite land a decent SBS bet yet, but must have a decent chance with Al Saham 7/2. Wouldn’t want too much rain as might open door for others.

York 2.55 – When I suggested back Sri Putra last year in this race I was uber chuffed. Varian had entered a pacemaker that day, but today me knows Mukhadram will do that for him. I’m not in anyway suggesting Mukhadram will lose this, but in the betting without or the forecast I suggest Sri Putra again. Headgear all back on. Be interesting to see how Apache gets on here at York and another one I would not think of easily writing off.

Newcastle 3.05 – Frog Hollow 7/2 can follow up under penalty.

Ascot 3.15 – Jeez. 3yr olds seem to struggle in this. Segal has clearly been reading Pyman’s Thoeries about claimers! Hmm one high in Santefisio 28/1 and one low Lightening Cloud 12/1

York 3.30 – Double Jeez. Gramery 20/1 slightly lower than when 2nd in this race last year. Khubala 7/1 should not be too far away

Ascot 3.50 – Lots of chat about Hillstar. Who can doubt Stoute. If it goes genuinely soft then you’d be nervous about Novellist. Ektihaam is clearly a decent horse, but you cannot get away from Cirrus Des Aigles 6/4.

Newmarket 3.55 – I have a few of these on my tracker, but not sure what the maximum weight you can put a horse up by is, but I would have put Secondo 4/1 up by a good 15lb minimum. What do I know though. Just hope if he needs to can find something off the bridle. Looks class above

2.00pm update...Couple non runners including Cape Peron (phew, or not?), so adding EsQueLove and Feyhadi into the mix

Bets 26/07/2013

Thought would be a strong day après Debdebdeb won, but it was not to be. No more lumping for me. Two ton lost on Sadiq and another ton in accs. Have to say I’m annoyed I didn’t back Majeyda – the Fig Roll form was the best by far! On that note however it stacked up Mars would find either Casey or Scins too hot to handle, so was a decent lay. Someone needs to hit me with a stick to form stick every morning.

Ascot 3.10 – The best horse here, and IMO best handicapped, is Highland Castle but 10 stone is a lot to shoulder. I’ll be peaved if Johnston pulls this one off. This could get tactical if there is not a strong pace and I don’t know who it will suit. However watching Homeric 11/4 run wide round outside of big field over C&D at a quick looking pace means I’m just shading him over Mysterious Man, but the problem is MM is Balding and has solid form with Sun Central. Argh.

Ascot 3.45 – The 3yr old allowance is about a 2 length headstart. That puts Ultrasonic who is top rated represented by Stoute who romps this race and the Producer form is best on show, neck and neck with Auction. Ignore Auction’s last race. Was hampered all over the shot; just Frankie’s luck at the moment. This then in my mind rules out Annecdote who is 4lb worse off with Auction. But, then you hit a problem because Light Up My Life in first time cheekpieces ran 8lb higher in that handicap and finished 4 lengths behind which from a handicap perspective suggests will finish deadheat with Auction today, but still think Auction has the edge. Am praying Dark Orchid doesn’t produce her best 2yr old form else could beat this field in first time headgear. However, the value today has to lie with Falls of Lora. 1mile good is def the right trip. Problem is I can’t work out whether I back Ultasonic 2/1, Auction 4/1 or Falls of Lora 8/1

Thirsk 3.55 – Dusky Queen’s 6/1 had form franked by Sheastar yesterday although I was on Elle Woods annoyingly

Ascot 4.20 – I know I will kick myself for betting in a 4 horse race, but I reckon Senn’ Star Evs can dictate this from the front. Johnston won this last yr with a 3yr old too.

Ascot 4.50 – Shortlisted on too many so may not bet. Best Be Careful won this last year of a much higher mark, but form looks bit off, but surely 16/1 is a tad big??? Gladiatrix and Rowe Park bring the best form to the table, and Irish Boy has a smidgen of a chance with no rise for latest win

York 6.30 – Picture Dealer 11/4, as long as has room will get a quick pace and looks to have another 6lb in hand (at least IMO). Short price for a big handicap so you would have to punt with Mon Brav 9/1. Likes the course and def has a win in him off this mark based on last run over C&D

Newmarket 7.10 – Ever Present 3/1 got done by Xinbama who landed me a decent forecast last time out. Sir Mike might be the forecast with Ever Present today.

York 7.30 – Ordinarily I’d be all over Albasharah and I will be, but not like a rash. Lady’s First as far as I’m concerned has the best form in book and we know goes here at York and there’s no way you can easily write off most of the others

Newmarket 8.10 – Foolish not to stick to a Johnston horse? Sadler’s Risk might well take this from the front, but the boy Jame Doyle can storm home on Villoresi 2/1. Hayley just left it too late twice on him before. I’m just feeling a saver on Sadler. Maybe needed run last time and drop in trip needed? Came 4^th in Chester Vase couple years ago when was rated much higher!

York 8.30 - I haven’t backed a long shot in a while so here it is. Mayfield Girl 20/1. I know she was getting a 3 yr old allowance in last race over C&D but look at some of the horses that have come out and won in that race in a similar class today. Handling the track at York is a big deal. Shrimper Roo 14/1 looks tempting for similar reasons over C&D.

Bets 25/07/2013

Am struggling. 8 race losing streak.

Sandown 2.30 – The Great Hall formline was let down my Hold Me Tight the other day, but Fledged revived the form Hawk High has won and now it’s the turn of DebDebDeb 11/4. Balding has won this race twice recently so knows what it takes.

Sandown 3.40 – Ducab in on the tracker but I can’t find a reason to think is well handicapped. On the other hand Sadiq walked home last time and due to go up another 2lb looks well in. I’m going to have one last lump job before I return to level stakes. If this comes in then I’ll continue.

Doncaster 7.15 – Sylvia Pankhurst 3/1 can squeeze one more out. Was well on top at the end of her last race.

Leops 7.20 – I’ve been a fan for Mars for a long time and this look ideal for him down in class, but there are 3 older horses who have a decent chance, so @4/7 Mars might be worth laying

Lunchtime update.. SBS is in such good form and the last few winners (Sandown 3.05) of this have put up mighty solid efforts in Kempton maidens. The way Feedyah 7/1 won her maiden was class, so worth a bet even if just to watch the race, although have Lamar on the tracker