Bets 12/05/2012

Once again a jumps horse hacks up and this time saved me an embarrassing white wash. I wonder what stats are out there to show how well those horses who win staying flat races at the beginning of the season are those who have come off the back of a good jumps season. Local Hero, Il De Re, Overturn, Absinthe, Mica Mika, etc all ran remarkable races at Chester this week. Today looks like a tough day, but I've had a few good days so will take that confidence, bag it and ooze it over my punts today!

Racing Post's Tom 'Pricewise' Segal's bets today are:
Ascot 3.25 - Pravada Street 40/1
Haydock 3.40 - Red Merlin 10/1 & All The Aces 14/1

Will post my thoughts later....

Ascot 2.20 – Aiken looks a solid favourite, but I can’t ignore Dawn Twister who has some form behind the late Fox Hunt. Aiken was 11/8 this morning and is now 4/7 so the market is speaking. I’ll chance with Dawn Twister at the prices and may be worth forecasting A/DW as a cover. If anything else pops up will be a shock.

Ascot 2.50 – My Queenie has some decent form in some far more competitive races than this. Not convinced with relish the trip and that’s reflected in the price, but with Hayley onboard could be interesting. Free Verse will absolutely relish this trip and ground. Was also an interesting article about Pedigrees on soft ground. Free Verse ticks this box as well.

Ascot 3.25 – Segal has tipped Pravda Street. I missed the 40/1 but picked up 33/1. Not sure I get the rationale but never mind. It doesn’t look like there will be much pace in the low number stands, but it’s worth backing one high drawn and one low drawn. I really like the look of Nasri here towards the high numbers. 3^rd last year, proven(ish) on soft if excluding his last as Pontefract but is going to get a 7lb jockey claim today. Towards the low end, Tariq Too has been back all week and goes well on soft. Ran a decent race last time and form has been somewhat upheld.

Ascot 5.10 – Pedigree suggests Peace Seeker will be as good on AW as on testing ground, if not better. Was awesome last year, but does have a break to overcome

Ascot 5.40 – Have to believe Grumeti’s speed and class is better than Local Hero’s. Forecast it.

Haydock 2.00 – Not sure why the cheekpieces have been kept on Cross Kennon, but he loves it here although would love some more rain. Top weight so faces a tough task, but on his best days he can get close to the mighty Big Bucks, so will have a chance if turned out.

Haydock 3.05 – Our Jonathon is a top notch handicap horse. At level weights here at Haydock Markab has to be the pick.

Haydock 3.40 – Segal has already tipped Red Merlin and All The Aces. A tough race. A tough handicap. A good place to look in these circumstances is Pipe. I have a free £15 bet so will slap on Dream Esteem.

Haydock 4.15 – I want to bet in this but can’t pick the winner. D Nicholls’ horses are in dire shape but Beacon Lodge has won this race twice before. Red Jazz only ever run on GS ground once before but argualbly one of best and Firebeam bolted up over C&D&G in last race. Tough.

Lingfield 2.40 - Vow

Lingfield 3.10 – Going to take a huge punt here on Ed De Gas. There are some class horses in this race; Shantaram who was just beat by Model Pupil, but not sure he will stay. Rougemont, who beat Mickdaam amongst others. However EDG is a course winner, hugely unexposed, won over this trip so must hold a chance.

Lingfield 3.45 – Last one for today I think! Cai Shen looked hugely impressive in the Winter Derby and if was given a run earlier and was not forced wide would have had this. Beachfire is a danger and loves to come from the back and storm home, but might need this run after a break.

Total Staked £530.00, Total Returned £477.60

£30.00 Aiken, Dawn Twister f/c N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Dawn Twister 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Markab 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Nasri 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Pravda Street 33/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Free Verse 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Tariq Too 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Cross Kennon 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Ed De Gas 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Red Merlin 12/1 - WIN £255.00

£15.00 e/w All The Aces 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w My Queenie 12/1 - PLACED £51.00

£30.00 Grumeti, Local Hero f/c N/A - WIN £104.10

£30.00 Cai Shen 10/3 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Trebles N/A - LOSE £0.00

£0.00 Dream Esteem 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Vow 5/4 - WIN £67.50

£30.00 Peace Seeker 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 12/05/12:
£2,870.96
AntePost P&L @ 12/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 12/05/12:
£3,924.20