I will get stung soon eliminating
wide draws, but I’ve seen enough Meydan races and enough stats to know you have
to be bloody amazing to win from 13 and above and so it’s not worth risking it.
It’s a shame as Variety Club, Ron The Greek, CDA and Rich Tapestry as a result
have it all to do. Ladbrokes were pretty well clued in last year about the
Coolmore runners and Appleby looks like one to avoid. Except for that, usual
rules – look at C&D times, how they performed from previous draws and don’t
confuse Tapeta form with anything.
GODOLPHIN MILE –
Variety Club will have to
pull off a miracle to win this from this draw. Tried it last time and failed,
and will have the same battle with Capital Attraction up front and likely will be
kept wide as a result. No reason should turn the tables with Shuruq. Haatheq
won’t be far off, but just not sure is quite good enough. There are two
unknowns in this for me. Firstly Flotilla who is a dual group 1 winner. Pissed
on Breeders Filly Turf, but with no proven form on tapeta, quite hesitantly
have to take of list. Secondly, Brightline. Japan & HK runners are never to
be sniffed at but looks like just about G3 winner at best, plus with a wide
draw let’s leave out. No other horses have the form to warrant paying attention
to except Soft Falling Rain who won this last year and took Goodlophin’s
monopoly away from the race.
So the bookies have got this
one right. Soft Falling Rain and Shuruq both head the betting @4/1. SFR was really
disappointing last time and can’t excuse 6f as has won at this distance before.
De Kock runners generally improve for second run here and so will no doubt
improve, but there is no 3yr old allowance this time. Therefore have to go with
Shuruq 4/1. Even the race times back this up, but I will be using Soft Falling
Rain in accumulators as well and even the r
f/c 16/1
*
DUBAI GOLD CUP – Part of me is tempted to just say Cavalryman 7/2,
back it, but it’s still worth checking…the ones he has put in their place this
season I’m not going to bother with as he has done that comfortably. Most of
these are taking a step up in trip and most don’t look like they will stay.
Seimos has decent form on paper but last year jockey said didn’t stay but has
arguably improved. Dabadiyan is of some interest but not sure that Excellent Result
form is any good. The one i am hugely wary of is Joshua Tree. He nearly won
this two years ago and it was a quicker time than Cavalryman has ever pulled
out. Now doesn’t have Murtagh onboard but does have Moore. It would be foolish
to write Ernest Hemingway off on this ground but it’s surely a tough ask on
seasonal debut
If
there are any frailties in Calvaryman 3/1 then surely Joshua Tree 9/1
is the one to take advantage. Not sure why Now we Can is getting some whispers.
Ignoring it.
*
UAE DERBY – This looks tricky as. Not sure Long John is the
obvious favourite. Barzy doesn’t believe he will stay, so odd he picked this
ride. Asmar was smashed by Long John, but then smashed Emirates Flyer by
further than Long John did. Asmar is bred to stay. Cooptado is interesting on
paper but looks like trip might be too sharp. O’Brien has won this a few times
so Sir John Hawkins and Giovanni Boldini must be dangers, the latter more so.
The outsider in this race for me is Toast of New York. He beat two solid high
70’s horses by 16 lengths. Kirby was riding this horse all out to test him and
he obviously passed Osbourne’s test. Jallota steps up in trip which might be
the making of him, but not overly convinced.
I’d
probably avoid Long John at this price, maybe even lay him. Ladbrokes say Giovanni Boldini 3/1 will win so I am with them. Toast of New York
12/1ew
worth a risk.
*
AL QUOZ SPRINT – On all known form there’s only
a few in this. Dux Scholar has been running well as has Medicean Man. They look
like 3rd/4th contenders. Now will Shea Shea retain his
crown or will Amber Sky make all and be the first to make all in 36 turf
sprints and win? Shea Shea has the rail, but Amber Sky will break quickly and
move across to that rail too. On the other side Beat Baby will lead and
Medicean Man will follow that pace with Sole Power. It’s tough….Joy And Fun is
getting old and if has retained his ability might look a daft place price.
This
is a Group 1 race and Shea Shea is proven at this level and here, but Amber Sky
is lightening and might not get caught. Medicean Man offers good each way value
but don’t think can beat either. I reckon the ground will not be quick enough
for Amber Sky so stick with Shea Shea 6/4
*
DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN – Rich Tapestry has been given a
bummish draw and Sterling City has thrashed him before, but has no tapeta form.
Rich Tapestry destroyed Reynaldothewizard last time but covered a few lenghts
less. Kryton Factor and Balmont Mast are both contenders on best form, but
doesn’t look like they are in top nick. Really can’t rule Complicate out as
will no doubt be ridden far earlier this time. The one who looks interesting is
Jamesie. He had to wait a long while before could really get going, last time
out and he flew home.
If Rich Tapestry forces the pace with Reynaldothewizard
expect Jamesie and Sterling City to come flying at them at the line. I don’t’
know how to play this one. Jamesie
16/1ew looks the value.
*
DUBAI DUTY FREE – Arguably the hardest race to
pick alongside the Sheema. Trade Storm won this last year and he ought to have
won both his last starts. First went far too late and second pace not quick
enough and so think has the beating of both Ver’rix and Mshawish. Hunters Light
looks to have lost it, but on last years form would have a chance. Got
impression from Stoute Dank won’t be fully ready and needs GF, but won;’t get
that. Logotype looks held by Just A Way. Blazing Speed looks short of G1
quality as does Tokei Halo. This trip looks too short for Tasaday. Just A Way could be
pretty incredible. He thumped Gentildonna, is Top rated and must have every
chance. The Fugue is a tricky one. Was not a confirmed runner for this until a
few days ago. Is trip too short? Will she be fit? The sex allowance might be
the key?
Reckon is going to be some pace in this and that makes Trade Storm 20/1ew look pretty big. Watch last two races and
you’ll see why if gets the pace and goes earlier, the price has to be too big
at 20/1. I can’t choose between The Fugue and Just a Way; it’s
Heart and Head respectively.
*
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC – I can’t see any front runners in
this so tactics will be important. I was all over Cirrus Des Aigles until the
draw came out. Best horse in the race and given no major interference would
have won this again, but can’t see it from the draw. Similar story for
Dominant. Empoli is not good enough. Ladbrokes don’t appear to be worried about
Magician or Festive Cheer. I just don’t the Excellent Form result is good
enough for this. Means I even have to say goodbye to possibly my biggest losing
horse of all time Mount Athos. I’m sure I’ll put him in an acc still though!
There is one horse in this though in that formline who has been written off and
is a massive ew price. Meandre. Has had two lousy and two decent finishes. Good
draw today, good chance. 4 time G1 winner!!! Gentildonna again has a tough draw
but was second in this last year. Looking a the Japan Cup Denim and Ruby beats
the mare. Twinlight Eclipse looks held by Magician although was going as quick
as him at the finish.
With
no confirmed pace the draw may well not make a difference and so I
really want to back Cirrus but I can’t from 15. A small each way bet on Meandre 40/1 and
Denim and Ruby 7/1 has to be value
over Gentildonna. Dunanden is of interest as is Athos who won’t be let down by
Fallon
*
DUBAI WORLD CUP – 10lbs separate the field on
ratings. Akeed Mofeed and Military Attack are top rated on 123. The former was
well below best last time and has no experience away from Turf. The only time
Military Attack tried AW was on debut and was a total flop, so I’m crossing
them both off. I’d be surprised if Mukhadram was good enough but either way he
is going to set a quick pace so turn of foot might not be the key asset in
this. African Story looks short at this level. Vancouverite and Side Glance no
chance on paper and Cat O’Mountain is probably short of top class too. I’m
trying to find flaws in Prince Bishop. Struggling to do that. He has won both
his starts this year very well. The first was a quick time and the second was
not quicker as was hampered. Being is Stall 1 he really might get pinned in on
the rail though. If there’s a horse to turn the tables on Prince Bishop it’s
going to be Sanshaawes. I had a dream about this horse running near side and winning.
Clearly improving and good outside chance as covered 22m more than Prince
Bishop which is around 12 lenghts I reckon. Can’t fancy Hillstar. Surfer is
probably short of class despite a decent run last time. Can’t see why
Belshazzar would win as not sure stays. Ladbrokes think Ruler of The World will
win. No form on Tapeta, but when they are shortest in Group races on a fav they
are right. Draw 12 is fine. Hokko Tarumae looks just short of G1. Red Cadeaux
is a standard place chance. Ron The Greek has been screwed by draw the his
owner this the ground will be against him.
Going with form and my dream –
Sanshawees 14/1. Military Attack 5/1 has been subject to massive bets, but this is
another coupon buster as ROTW may well rule Meydan
Away
from Dubai and back in the UK, Tom Pricewise Segal has picked 5 juicy looking
ones:
2.40
Doncaster – Heavens Guest 12/1
2.55
Kempton – Bishops Castle 7/1
3.15
Doncaster – Farlow 14/1, Amaze 28/1
3.50
Doncaster – Gabrials Kaka 9/1
Welcome
home flat season but not too much time to focus on the below as all time went
into Dubai!
1.30 Donny – Paddy Again 5/1 although all the money seems
to be for Flyball 4/1
2.05 Donny – Custom Cut 13/2 has some really good form on slower ground.
Hopefully takes to Donny.
2.40 Donny – Maureen 6/1 is running of 9-0, has decent speed, is taking a pretty
big step down in class, ran 4 lenghts behind Elusive Kate and a decent enough
race at Donny. What is not to like.
2.55 Kempton – Rebellious
Guest 7/1, but Uramazin 12/1 might turn the tables?
3.15 Donny – Freewheel 28/1 ran a decent race on
debut for O’Brien but was then sold as clearly average. But he’s been thrown
into hard races in conditions that would not suit. Therefore now back to likely
preferred conditions if he runs to debut mark is a couple lengths ahead of
handicapper I reckon. Gworn 8/1 is
an obvious favourite and worth backing.
3.50 Donny – The two
I really like are draw to front runners so am somewhat optimistic is a
ridiculously hard handicap! Off Art 10/1
(back AP) draw next to Gabrials Kaka and One
More Word 14/1 draw next to Balty Boys. If Gabrials Kaka handles the ground
then yep Segal has got this right I think.
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