Bets 17/10/2015

The going is good to soft. If it becomes good then I’m potentially stuffed as that’s what I’m basing my punts on. All week I’ve been saying Solow, Hobbs and Muharrar. I’m not as convinced now.

12.45 Ascot –Forgotten Rules won this last year and beat the unpredictable Pallastor and Flying Officer. Still don’t think Clever Cookie good enough. Gale Force too much to find surely as does Amour De Nuit. Simenon needs further. Hidden Gold didn’t show enough over C&D for me. Suegioo not a G2 horse and Forgotten beats him using Pallastor as marker. Marker applies to Clondaw Warrior but this one bounces in and out of form and won at royal meeting. I can’t take the Ebor form seriously after Litigant won it so can’t back him. Wicklow really let me down at Ascot last time and from the jokes Ebor form line. That leaves Agent Murphy with Forgotten Rules. I’m watching the Irish St. Leger replay and Forgotten Rules cruised into contention the last of the bridle and 2m is far more up street and I just hope ground has enough toe in it. Whilst Agent Murphy also has course form has to be £100 Forgotten Rules 6/1 e/w (WH paying 4 places) £25 e/w Clondaw Warrior 22/1

1.20 Ascot – Muharrar has drifted to 3/1. Can’t be a good sign. God damnit. Hmm no idea where t look now. I’ve just drawn a line through those with average form slower than good (at my own risk). Lightening Moon 25/1 £100 e/w. Was smart last year. I’m hoping bounces back over a winning C&D. Twinlight Son doesn’t have the Ascot form I want to see. Danzeno beaten by LM. I’m going to back a horse the other end of draw too. Last years winner Gordon Lord Byron 25 £100 e/w.

1.55 Ascot – I’m not overly convinced about the St. Leger form, so have to pass on Simple Verse and I reckon needs further than this. Had a sweet £200 on Madame Chiang at 12/1 when won this last year, but ground not soft enough today. I’ve not done well with Palmers horses this year and when backed Covert Love over this distance didn’t work out. From that race Sea Calisi does stand out though. Beautiful Romance doesn’t look good enough on paper or does Lady Tiana or Speedy Borading. Arabian Queen did beat Golden Balls yes but not at this distance although 18/1 does seem ridiculous. No point trying to work out Tapestry and AOB. Won the Oaks last year so this is def right trip, but not raced on slower than good before. Then there’s Candarliya who beat Sea Calisi last time. SC has had a break, but Cand didn’t have a hard race, might have a better draw and arguably better jockey so wins my vote; £100 Candarliya 5/1 e/w and you don’t win a Listed race against 100 horses by 8 lenghts and not get backed; £100 Journey 8/1 e/w who looked mighty impressive last two outings.

3.05 Ascot – Again was all over Jack Hobbs but the drift worries me. I heart Weld at Ascot and I reckon Fascinating Rock 16/1 £100 e/w is awesome value. Hobbs is back in trip and not sure right answer. Found 9/2 £100 e/w def next best option

3.45 Ascot – Don’t think Britannia form that good so line through Sacrifical. Bronze Angel surely too high in weights, Merry Me not handicapped well. Master of World race too soon and Ascot form not good enough. Be surprised if Fahey does it again with either Rene or Farlow. Too far for Professor. Belgian too high in weights. Empire Storm not good enough. Chil The Kite needs it quicker. Ayaar does look good enough. Gabrials Lad is tempting but not sure about the mile and up again in weights. Fort Basiton and Spark Plug look beat. I’m left with Musaddas, GM Hopkins, Balty Boys and Halation. It will clearly all depend on draw as Balty Boys knows too well. £100 e/w 25/1 Halation. Solid C&D winner and ignoring last run. This one hopefully on upgrade. Musaddas doesn’t have the Ascot form I want to see. Balty Boys is high in weights so going with Buckstay 9/1 £100 e/w  and GM Hopkins 12/1 £100 e/w

I’ve probably gone too far from the obvious and having a few accs with the top rated and top of market horses