Bets 08/06/2013

It’s been a decent two days and I hope it continues today. Seems to be a German horse in every race at Haydock today. Hope they don’t scupper me. Lastchancelucas finished a neck behind the favourite so even though he didn’t place he outran his price and I was right about the fact the difference in price between them was a joke. There are some mental big handicaps at Chester today and C&D runners with decent draws are the ones to focus one. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped 4 horses today:

Haydock 2.05 – Brockwell 12/1

Newmarket 2.55 – Nocturn 5/1

Newmarket 3.30 – No Heretic 5/1, Highland Castle 14/1

I have a lot of thoughts today!...

Haydock 2.05 – Sun Central 4/1 is on of my favs but also think Kiama Bay should not be 22/1. On a very very low winnable mark.

Newmarket 2.20 – Having watched Ehtedaam’s 3/1 last race I don’t think Nabucco can reverse the placings.

Haydock 2.40 – Prussian 9/2 is top rated and form is solid enough for me. I guess Nymphea is an unknown and the trainer is very bullish.

Chester 2.45 – Chooseday 18/1 hacked up over C&D last year. Gets same conditions again and only 4lb higher but does have a tough draw, which is why you have to back David O’meara’s Roker Park 7/1. Decent C&D winner and he is pissing winners. Finally getting on his bandwagon.

Newmarket 2.55 – Hugo Palmer landed a decent race with Khubala the other day and there was a lot of money floating around for it. Interesting that there’s money pouring in for Zero Money 18/1 (writing this 8pm day before). I’ve been mulling over Valbchek 14/1. It’s a handicap debut and I think his rating should be higher. Does that mean his well handicapped? Not sure. Will learn a lesson today.

Chester 3.20 – Area Fifty One 11/2 has the best form on show. Handles the track but there are a few dangers. Greeleys Love gets a huge 3year old allowance and so runs 2 stone less than AFO. An Cat Dubh looks a smart C&D performer and at Chester it’s all about them, but is running from out the handicap. Finally Haylaman who nearly landed me a phat double a couple of races ago but with the form line I’ll stick with AFO

Haydock 3.15 – Pastoral Player 3/1 ought to be same price as Eton Forever. PP had to check his run last time out. The ground is defo more in his favour and he won this last year.

Newmarket 3.30 – With Tom on this one. No Heretic 5/1

Haydock 3.50 – 3 year old do well in this with their allowance. Ladies Are Forever was 3^rd last year behind 2 of them and I reckon same again this year expect behind Hoyam 10/3 and City Girl 8/1 and hope it’s not Sandreamer

Beverley 4.20 – Class 5 race – what am I doing. Last Destination 8/1 either runs a blinder here or a total stinker. Lets hope for the former today.

Haydock 4.25 – I’m taking Zanetto as a bit of class and that’s why I picked City Girl. If CG wins Clancy Avenue 13/2 is my pick. Probably worth a double too. Professor is short and I think better at 7f.

Newmarket 5.15 – Maria’s Choice 2/1 has course distance and consistent form.

Bets 07/06/2013

Honey Meadow and Asian Trader provided a nice 70/1 double yesterday. Bosh. I would have been livid if Gladiatrix won. I no longer like the Mont Ras form

Newmarket 2.40 – 3 year old handicaps are so difficult because we just don’t know how much improvement each horse has, and so I’m always on the look out for handicap debutants on a mark I think is generous. Jubilante is the worthy favourite here but the one who looks on a decent mark, if has improved over the winter is Nardin 16/1. The form of Hoodna and Discernable is decent enough for this class. Hopefully will be ready on first run back.

Newmarket 3.10 – All roads point to Telescope here. Elkaayed who is bagging me winners, Glorious Protector who I’m angry with myself for not backing last time out all hold the form with Telescope. I’m still so gutted he didn’t run in the derby as he really would have had an amazing chance. Anyway, this is pretty tough, but I think Fledged 7/1 ran well on debut here and ought to improve and go close

Newmarket 3.45 – Highland Colori is probably the obvious choice but I would want a bigger price as more of and e/w punt. There are 4 on my shortlist so I’m just going to sack off. The main reason is Top Offer who could destroy the field, or not

I've saving my energy for tomorrow or maybe later this evening :)

4.30pm update. That was a pretty successful afternoon. A nice e/w double, but frustratingly I was too greedy to take a in hindsight decent price on Highland Colori who bolted up. A few for the evening...

Pontefract 7.05 - Will be brave with this one and call a reverse forecast on Orsippus and Mojolika

Pontefract 7.35 – The market is wrong here. It must be. I really don’t know why Hoofalong is favourite. And if he is then why the heck is LastchanceLucas 40/1? LCL beat Hoffalong, has won here and it’s easy to forgive a horse at York, but actually that was a tough race. He’ll be fitter today and I just can’t understand the price. The race will no doubt prove me wrong! The more realistic bet has to be Mayaasem 7/1. Solid C&D winner and solid handicap form.

Haydock 8.15 – I have to go with the BHA and their highest rated horse. Has a good draw, won at Haydock before and was in good enough form in Dubai. Medicean Man 8/1, although admittedly slightly tentatively because he hasn’t actually won at this level 

Bets 06/06/2013

Sandown 6.15 – Filly allowance on Honey Meadow 12/1 with form behind Quatour may be a tad big.

Sandown 6.50 – I was keen to back an outsider in this such as Rowe Park or Gladiatrix but Dettori might well open his account this season on Asian Trader 3/1. Looks well ahead of the handicapper.

Sandown 7.25 – Volcanic Wind 7/2 – I like the Mont Ras form, but this is another big handicap

Sandown 7.55 – Mutazamen 20/1 on old form on good ground

Bets 05/06/2013

Well my expectations yesterday were correct and both placed. Unfortunately I back the wrong outsider so the tricast was not landed, but still, a decent outcome.

Ayr 4.40 – Awake My Soul may well be a well supported winner but I can’t not back Scrapper Smith 10/1. Taking a massive step down in class and back onto a mark has won with before. Not forgetting his trainer has a 19% SR here (+£28)

Ripon 8.15 – I backed Yeeoow blindly last night at 7/2. Having looked at the card and having seen this formline slump I’m not so keen anymore and also never run at Ripon before, but I have backed him. Like a couple of days ago there were a number of horses being backed in the Wokingham prior to a pretty decent handicap at Ripon and it did not lie! So today York Glory and Duke of Firenze are the two. The only formline that I can see racing today related to that is Misplaced Fortune 10/1. Based on faster ground and last C&D no reason why should be 10/1.

Kempton 9.00 – Future Reference 5/1 looks a better horse at Kempton with 7f looking the right distance too. SBS is going well and his horses go well at the track.

Bets 04/06/2013

Just one race worth looking at; a handicap at Ripon.

Ripon 3.30 - Frontier Fighter may struggle from the draw. Ruth Carr and Dubai Dynamo 5/1 have a good record here and is in decent form. Lord Aeryn 7/1 also goes well here. They both have good draws and expect them both to be placed. No idea what's happened to St Mortiz 20/1. On best form, on the mark over C&D wins comfortably.

Bets 03/06/2013

So Epsom didn’t quite work out but Segal's Antepost on Ruler of The World @ 25/1 was a saving punt.

Leicester 2.15 – As I have a vested interest in Sea The Stars juveniles am keen to see how Juvenile Lead 10/3 performs

Leicester 3.45 – Tempted to take the favourite on here. The form of Elik and Liber has tailed off and the one I like provided is fit on reappearance is Sweetnessandlight 7/1.

Naas 3.05 – Reply 5/2 ran a blinder last time out.

Windsor 7.00 – Mince 4/5 is rated 8lb better than anything else in the field.

Windsor 7.30 – Form line test. Tropics was a nice easy winner for me last time out, and is up 6lb for that. He might need a few more pounds to qualify for the Wokingham. The other in that Yeeoow formline is Tioman Legend 8/1 who looked better than Tropics in that race and is therefore better value as running off the same weight and will be fitter after that run. I have no idea whether that’s the right formline to follow because Duke of Firenze was mighty impressive last time out franking that line too. That would put Steps 22/1 in with a huge shout here, but not sure ground and distance is ideal, but who knows. Khubala is interesting from his last race it took him a while to get going and then stayed on very well, but I’m going to pass over reluctantly despite a few pounds flying in for the Wokingham now. And lastly Poole Harbour. That form is also strong, but at 4/1 not interested, but might also explain why Gabrials Lad is being back for Wokingham today too. This will be a race to defo remember for Ascot, but am sticking with Tioman and Steps more for the prices

Bets 01/06/2013

Oh dear. Epsom whitewash. Most of my picks yesterday ran from the front and got massively picked off, so need to switch tactics although the ground is better today so it might be foolish to do so!

Epsom 1.35 – Has to overcome top weight but hope Space Ship 6/1 can

Musselburgh 2.20 – Justice Day 13/8 all day long

Epsom 2.40 – As much of a Dunaden fan as I am I can’t see SNA being beat. I never get it right with him and not worth it at 2/5

Doncaster 3.10 –Baltic Knight 7/1 has solid form and Willy will take off a valuable claim.

Epsom 3.15 – This is going to be one fast arse race with so many front runners. It has to be set up for a hold up horse. Swiss Cross has an amateur jockey onboard and I’m not sure this is the right thing to do, but at 50/1 on betfair it’s worth a bet. That Hamza race is strong but moreover the race where he flew home over C&D after a bad start. The two I have to be on the nose on are Captain Dunne 8/1 and Long Awaited 8/1. Both C&D winners. The former is on a really good mark. Both drawn high which seems to be favoured over the years.

Doncaster 3.45 – Poetic Dancer 12/1 will be fitter this time round and can reverse the placings with Mezzotoint but Born To Surprise 9/1 could go really close. Hard handicap.

Epsom 4.00 – If Dawn Approach get beaten it’ll be the distance. I’ve already backed Chopin and Mars Antepost and don’t really intend on betting on anything else. Will just watch and enjoy.

Doncaster 4.45 – Elkaayed 7/4 was an easy winner for me last time out. Harder race, but still holds that Telescope form which better than most, but it will be tactical and anything could happen

Epsom 4.50 – First Avenue 16/1 runs well here and on a decent mark. Sirvino is tempting as well but not sure on the price.

Epsom 5.25 – Baby Strange is on a low mark and was placed well enough last year. 33/1 may underestimate him as well as 33/1 about Another Try. On form Crew Cut 8/1 can continue to frank the Yeeoow form.

Lingfield 5.55 – All form points to Blhadawa 4/7

10.45am update... I’ve just checked Pricewise and we’ve agreed on two in the big handicap!!

Epsom 1.45 – St Paul De Vence 14/1

Epsom 3.15 – Captain Dunne 9/1, Swiss Cross 28/1

Epsom 4.00 – Galileo’s Rock 40/1