Bets 12/03/2015 - Chelts Day 3

Another solid day yesterday despite getting the Coral Cup all wrong. Will need to be careful today as are some awfully difficult handicaps to solve.

I feel a bad day coming on.


1.30 Chelts - JLT

On all know form Vautour 7/4 wins this. His Supreme win last year was phenomenal. There is an argument to say that Ptit Zig beat Josses Hill by equivalent of 13 lengths and Vautour only did by 6 lengths. PZ is also higher rated than Vautour.

I do also like Apache Stronghold but I'm not sure can turn tables on Vautour.


2.05 Chelts - Pertemps

If Trustan Times 22/1 e/w (5 places) was a few lbs lower last year like he is today he would have won. Let's hope he can today.

Edeymi 9/1 e/w (5 places) looks like another potential Martin plot and Regal Encore 10/1 e/w (5 places) who was 2nd in Champion bumper couple years back looks to have a chance.

Sybarite might be one to back in running at a big price but I'm not sure will get home ahead of enough rivals as always leaves it too late to get going. Call The Cops is tempting but Brother Brian 12/1 e/w (5 places) is still couple pounds better off and still looks ahead of his mark. Just hope he stays.

This is so hard and actually I might not back all of these. It's a stupid betting strategy. I might back them on the nose.


2.40 Chelts - Ryanair 

Don Cossack 9/2 e/w looks like another likely Irish winner. Elliot reckoned this was his best chance of a winner this week. He does look good and whilst has not won here before looked like was travelling well enough in the RSA.

The biggest danger to Don Cossack looks like Ma Filleue. I'm not sure what the record of this race is like with fillies, but judged on last years 2nd at the festival not sure it matters apart from the face gets a massive 7lb allowance. This puts her on a par with Don Cossack on ratings. If you use Hollywell as a marker then it'll be bloody close between these two. It's get more complicated by the fact Balder Success then beat MF by 3 lengths.

Out of the 3 I will stick with DC largely due to confidence of Elliot, but I do note that Elliot at the beginning of the season said he was not top of the G1 class

Wishfull Thinking 33/1 e/w is an old boy now and will do well to win. However, I'm not sure why he was run at 3m or 2m because I think he is at his best over 2m 4f on good ground, so today is near perfect and he is a C&D winner. Eduard looks to be a serious chaser in the making and has solid form lines. At 20/1 is off some interest but wonder if it's too soon and not yet run here at Chelts before


3.20 Chelts - World Hurdle

Last year's 3rd and 4th return without Annie Power and More of That and I think they both have solid chances.

Zarkandar has drifted to 7/1 e/w (4 places) and I think that's mad, but the issue I have is the hill. I'm not convinced handles it, but comes here in better form than last year along with all the Nicholls horses

At Fishers Cross 25/1 e/w (4 places) gets a small bet because McCoy has to win a race this festival, Curtis is quietly confident, we know he can win at chelts, Oscar pedigree good for good ground and blinkers will hopefully sort out jumping issues. I know part of me is doing this because he has lost me a wad of cash before, but sod it.

Reve De Sivola will probably struggle with the quick ground.

Saphir Du Rheu is class bit still has to prove can handle the ground and for something is stopping me back him but I'm not sure what. Could be reckless!

I know I shouldn't back another horse and in doing so flags that I can't pick the winner, but Whisper 10/1 e/w (4 places) really does handle to hill, is improving, and was not far away from quality of SDR over hurdles.


4.00 Chelts - Stable Plate

And this is where we throw even more money away :)

There's an obvious bet in this. Monetaire 8/1 e/w (5 places) From the Pipe stable who landed a gamble yesterday and who always have well handicapped horse in this race. The form with Solar Impulse puts him miles ahead of mark.

I remember backing Burn and Turn 25/1 e/w (5 places) and landing a decent prize in Ireland and then using that as form to find Road to Riches. I think is well handicapped ignoring the last race.

Buywise is a massive danger but has too many jumping issues, No Buts is interesting too as the Sound Investment form is strong and Champion Court is on a seriously low mark now. Caid Du Berlais is tempting but stats show low weights do best in this so I'll play my luck with just the two picks

4.40 Chelts - Kim Muir


Does not get any easier:

Seems to be a gamble going down on The Package 10/1 e/w 5 places. Has the best jockey onboard. Pipe yard does well and TP does have a big race in him. The other Pipe runner Standinf Ovation has chances, but not sure gets the hill

Clondaw Knight 20/1 e/w 5 places is very exciting. Improving, ahead of the handicapper and has a jockey with the best record on this course. I always pay attention to Harrington runners as well

Ericht 40/1 e/w 5 places solid course runner, massive step down in class and might have been Johns Spirits here with a clearer run of this mark

Just a Par 18/1 has just a chance

Bets 11/03/2015 - Chelts Day 2

Being back in the winners enclosure is brilliant. 12/1, 14/1, 22/1, 10/1, 11/1 placed, a 6/1 winner and the final winner @ 14/1 was just divine. The race panned out exactly how I called it.

Fair play to Mullins yesterday. The hype was valid and really should have been 4 winners.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped the following. 8 horses! That's ridiculous from the genius as is a lot of outlay, so will need to pick and choose which ones to back

2.40 Chelts - Hammersly Lake 25/1, Un Atout 16/1
4.00 Chelts - Toutancarmont 8/1
4.40 Chelts - Bouveril 16/1, Baron Alco 25/1
5.15 Chelts - Jetstream Jack 25/1, Wait For Me 12/1

Called into work - so less research than yesterday :( FFS!

Sticking with the e/w strategy as needed:

1.30 Chelts - Neptune 

I am on Windsor Park 10/1 e/w AP already, but he has to turn the tables on both Nic Canyon and Outlander. I reckon Windsor Park could still win this with more experience under his belt on better ground. Will need to up his jumping game though.

I'm sure Mullins will get another 1-2 today, but I can't pick the winner so am leaving this one today.


2.05 Chelts - RSA Chase -

I had Don Poli 7/4 marked down as a banker a while back. After yesterday's romp by Mullins no reason to move away from this. Already a G1 winner and won at the festival last year. I have to admit I'm worried about lack of experience over fences though.

Wounded Warrior is decent but needs slower ground and looks held by Don Poli. Kings Palace was a flop at the festival last year and not sure will get his own way upfront. Adriana Des Mottes (Walsh/Mullins) is 33/1, but I can't see ADM winning on all known form. Maybe next year.

Mulholland had a decent winner in The Druids Nephew yesterday and they are bullish about the Young Master, but I think will need to improve a lot as will If In Doubt

I backed Southfield Theatre 20/1 e/w Ante Post and still think has a decent chance. Apache Jack back AP too.

2.40 Coral Cup - 

Aux Ptits Soins could bolt up but even Nicholls says dont' know enough about him.

Marinero is quite interesting but was a poor run last time,

Time for a big priced outsider. Vasco Du Ronceray 50/1 e/w (5 places) was travelling pretty well in the Betfair hurdle until was hampered. He absolutely bolted up in his previous race but is only 5lb higher. Whilst that form is not brilliant, he has put up a couple good performances at Chelts before and has a strong e/w shout.

Un Atout does have a good chance based on his run in the Supreme last year. Will have to get back into hurdle mode, but on a mark of 145 and Mullins banging them in Segal might have picked the winner! He has also picked Hammersly Lake 20/1  e/w who again also has a very good chance. I like the way he powered up the hill.

If Goodwood Mirage 16/1 e/w (5 places) can sort jumping out I'm convinced is well handicapped and better handicapped than Activial. However clearly it's a risk to back to dodgey jumper in such a hard race. There was a fair amount of money for the horse yesterday so hopefully a good sign.

If Lac Fontana has improved enough and bounces back to form will have a chance, but too much if for me. If headgear works for Dell Arca another one who has a chance. Mijhaar is interesting but Ferguson horses were poor yesterday.

Volnay De Thaix caught eye with Rock on Ruby form, but top weight looks tough. Bears Affair is tempting, but not convinced enough.

The 4th horse I have to bet on is Baradari 16/1 e/w (5 places). Ran a blinder in the Fred winter last year and step up in trip has proved in last race to bring out the improvement. Will be flying home late


3.20 Chelts - Queen Mother Chase - 

I think Sire De Grugy 7/2 e/w is the one to be with. Watch his win last year. Was a quick time and he had a lot more left in the tank. Moore reckons he is better than last year.

If Sprinter return to best then fine, only one winner, but that's a real big ask. Big Bucks couldn't do it....
 Simply Ned?

4.00 Chelts - Cross Country - 

The market has this right. 3 way race for me except I'm not sure about this Toutancarmont. Segal has backed him, but for me Duke of Lucca 6/1, Any Currency 6/1 and Sire Collonges 15/2. All have the form and weight to win this. Combination Tricast is about 225/1.

Aiden Coleman may well have screwed Any Currency's chances by driving him home by 12 lengths last time. Was no need for it and now has gone up 9lbs, but he really can power up that hill.


4.40 Chelts - Fred Winter - 

I know very little abut Juvenile form this season, so no confidence in whatever I pick.

After wasting at least 30 mins I've decided to go with Souriyan 25/1 e/w (4 places). Battered Sebastian Beach who also in this race on similar ground, has a nice claim, was decent on the flat and just hope for a bit of luck!


5.15 Chelts - Champion Bumper - 

Segal has gone for Jetstream Jack 25/1 (e/w) - I agree from reading 'whispers' about how good he is.

I think Supasundae 12/1 and Moon Racer 7/1 have good chances, but this is a wide open race as it is every year! Mullins has 6 runners!!!

Bets 10/03/2015 - Chelts Day 1

The bookies are bricking it about a Mullins whitewash, but I don't know how much game playing is going on. Just remember form, form, form. Festival form, course form, ground form, trainer form, current form and you'll have a fighting chance.

I am going back to e/w punting on anything over 7/2 for my own financial safety reasons!

I have a feeling Henderson is going to have a decent 4 days . Townsend does not have a bad few rides either.

Chelts 1.30 - Supreme Novices -

All the rage was for Douvan and somewhat still is. Not convinced. L'Ami Serge has a huge chance but I will question the ground for him. Jollyallan also is running very well at the moment and would be fitting for McCoy to open the scoring. However a horse that beat Jollyallan on G/S ground in a bumper and was 2nd in a bumper at the festival last year is Shansehill 12/1 (e/w 3 places). I'm a tiny bit unsure about the form with No More Heroes, but I think the ground is going to help.

Qewy has a brilliant chance and a serious turn of foot but will have to step up again and has to deal with another different jockey, and may need it softer. I don't know enough about Tell Us More, but we all know how well Giggy Town do with their horses so needs consideration.

There is another Mullins horse Alvisio Ville 25/1 (e/w) might get a half bet as was favourite to beat Nichols Canyon last time out and even Mullins thought would so perhaps, just perhaps was a bad day?

Chelts 2.05 - Arkle -

I appear to have a rather big AP bet on Sail By The Sea 66/1. Notes suggest the owner comments made me do this. Looked brilliant last time out so you never know, but I think was a daft bet and this is seriously hard as Un De Sceaux 4/5 looks bloody good. I will wrap him up in a double with Annie Power as not backing any odds on horses today.

I don't think UDS can be beaten but I think Josses Hill 14/1 (e/w) who was closest to Vatour last year might get the closet to UDS. Has been running consistently well and will come here peaked to the max.

Chelts 2.40 - Ultima Solutions Handicap -

Ridiculous handicap! Will have to try hard not to back more than a few! Avoid Nicholls horses in these long distance chase events and back O'Neill!

Black Thunder too high in weights, I think Cape Tribulation has lost it, No Planning has lost way, not overly convinced about Druids Nephew on this ground and looks handicapped to tilt, Gallant Oscar has decent form at Navan but all of rain soaked ground, not sure Barrakilla will stay, Theatre Guide might have a chance based on run in December but not in good nick. Ground looks against Annacotty, Tenor N and Shangani. Don't think Grand Jesture up to it. Not sure According to Trev has any improvement left, Azure Fly long way to go, What A Warrior just has not gone well at Chelts, Lamb or Cod doesn't look well handicapped anymore

Not sure Pendra is going to stay and I didn't like the way Ned Stark failed to get up the Cheltenham hill. Monbeg Dude preferrably wants further. Smart Freddy might be well handicapped but not sure.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Gallant Oscar 10/1. Has a decent chance.

Gevrey Chambetin 14/1 (e/w 5 places) goes well fresh and blinkers in his last race really seemed to perk him up. 

Mendip Express 16/1 (e/w 5 places) looks too big. Nearly won the Beecher, in good form, trainer good record here, horse in good form and has won here before.

Indian Castle 22/1 (e/w 5 places) maybe would have cliched 3rd at the festival last year. Arrives in good form as does trainer so a place could be up for grabs

Dursey Sound and Lost Legend both 50/1 are hard to back but they are O'Neill and he does so well in handicap chases over 3m+, but not sure can. Hmm

Chelts 3.20 - Champion Hurdle -

Artic Fire does have e/w chance, but not going to back him. Bertimont very little chance. Hurricane Fly is a legend and I have a few quid AP and big odds, but not recommending today. Kitten Rock too much to find. Jezki of course has a chance to retain crown, but I'm not overly convinced. 

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Vantieux 33/1. Barry was saying at the beginning of the season could be a champion hurdle horse. 

I've watched a few videos now and Faugheen 11/10 looks rock solid. He's 2lb higher in the ratings and I think he might just fly away, but I'm going to put Faugheen in an acc as I'm not bothered about doubling up and go for The New One 4/1 e/w. I still think should have won last year and Sam just needs to make sure does not let Faugheen go to far out of sight

Chelts 4.00 - OLBG Mares -

Quevega must be peeved now this is a G1, however in similar fashion Annie Power as seemingly fragile as Quevega turns up without a prep win. If she is fit she wins. Top rated with solid form and course form. The first four home ought to be Glens Melody, Polly Peachum and L'Unique.

I am going to put Faugheen & Annie Power in a double as can't bet on Annie Power at odds on. Henderson's lot are in really good form coming into the festival so Polly Peachum 10/1 (e/w) gets backed as does Glen's Melody 6/1 (e/w). The market without Annie Power offers little value so e/w seems like the best bet if she flops. L'Unique has a few pounds to find with Polly Peachum so will leave out.

Caroles Spirit and Bitofapuzzle next best but will stick with the top end of market as looks right. This is def a tricast moment.

Chelts 4.40 - National Hunt Chase -  Thunder and Roses top rated is tempting but Very Wood 4/1 (e/w 4 places) is a course winner and won a G2 Chase at Navan very easily last time. Again I think the betting is correct and Sego Success 11/2 (e/w 4 places) is biggest danger.

Again, forecast territory

Segal has picked Perfect Gentleman 12/1.

Chelts 5.15 - Novice Handicap Chase - 

Segal has tipped 2 on my shortlist. Keltus 10/1 (e/w 5 places) and Killala Quay 16/1 (e/w 5 places). Everything in last few years says don't back Nicholls chasers at Chelts, but Keltus nearly won the Fred Winter last year and Nicholls has plotted a big handicap win every big race day and Keltus fits the bill. He had a hard passage through but stormed up the hill. KQ ran a blinder in Neptune last year and ought to be able to match his hurdles mark. Back on better ground, left handed, must have a decent chance.

Generous Random cruised into the home straight here at Chelts last time but nearly got done on the line and one horse who could turn the tables is Irish Cavalier 14/1 (e/w 5 places). This horse stormed up the hill and now has a 5lb pull with GR and I also think action will be better suited on quicker ground.

Horizontal Speed could be a massive danger but I can't work out from his races if is well handicapped or not. Potentially yes but I don't know, but if he is then Golden Hoof is far better handicapped as beat HS very easily at Aintree, but not convinced. 

The favourite Thomas Crapper has every chance too. He will be close to leading up the home straight but i think something will fly passed him. (I hope it will)

Bets 20/02/2015

Lingfield 1.15 - Franco's Secret 5/2 has every chance to win again. Absolutely flew home over C&D last time. The only worry I have for him is he can leave it very late but Bishop knows the horse and I've seen last few runs and I'll trust him.

Lingfield 1.45 - This is tough. Intransigent looks the obvious pick, but poor draw and only just won Listed race over C&D. Rivellino needs to win to qualify for Good Friday so expect a big run, but first run back never easy. Alben Star is a solid C&D winner but Fahey reckon will need first run. Segal has tipped Go Far, but Foxtrot Romeo 6/1 blitzed his last race and may well be the one to be on as he also romped Go Far before. I just hope he gets the breaks he needs. Harley needs to be switched on.

Lingfield 2.15 - I've seen so many horses come back from a long lay off, run well and then bounce. I really hope Sovereign Debt bounces today because I want a big bet on Shyron 7/2. Solid win last time over C&D from a wide draw so long as has a clear passage am sure can win again. A few have chances based on times and weights, but they all have poor draws. 

Lingfield 2.50 - Opera Lad 7/4

Lingfield 3.25 - Waverick Wave will make all and set it up for his stable mate Cloudscape 3/1. 

Lingfield 4.35 - Random Success 9/4 has a good chance to get on top today but its not going to be easy. Temple Road travels so smoothly into the home straight and could be biggest danger if just finds more of the pedal

Lingfield 5.05 - Fair Value 4/1 looks back to best and still on a lowish mark

Bets 12/02/2015

No betting on jumps until chelts for me.

Only had a chance to look at one race today

2.45 Meydan - Layl 2/1 romped last time and ought to again

Bets 07/02/2015

Ahh got pretty close to the mark with Meydan on thursday, but not close enough!

Tom Pricewise Segal has picked:

2.25 Newbury - Unioniste 4/1
3.35 Newbury - On Tour 14/1, Bordini 40/1

Will have a handful myself....

Newbury 1.15 - Cardinal Water 3/1 is decent I can see it

Uttoexter 1.40 - Ustica 4/1 good form

Newbury 1.50 - Milan Bound 10/3 or finally the turn of Merry King 9/1

Warwick 2.05 - Vibrato Valtat 6/5 I thinking of having a big bet on him

Uttoexter 2.15 - Hawaii Five Nil 5/1 back in trip dangerous

Newbury 2.25 - At the weights and Newbury Tarquin De Seuil 9/2 massive danger

Newbury 3.00 - Sire De Grugy 10/11 despite break will be hard to beat. Could be better than last year and thinking of another big bet

Lingfield 3.10 - Razor Wind 6/5 could make up my big race treble

Newbury 3.35 - Goodwood Mirage 18/1 can beat Activial with extra experience and blinkers. Has taken a while to get used to jumps but is seriously quick on the flat

Newbury 4.40 - Altior 3/1 look impressive last year, Buveur D;aIr 8/1 not written off though.

Bets 05/02/2015

Not so easy without Tapeta but let's give it a crack:

Meydan 3.20 - Wow. What a race to unpick. Not easy. Monsieur Joe would be the pick over 5f, but not convinced will see out the 6f. My Catch not in great form and dont think handicapped well. Kernoff is very interesting. I am going to bet he will be last coming round the bend and then pelt it home. I just think in a big field at Meydan that can be dangerous though. Just don;t know with Whistle Shop yet but De Kock's lot normally come on for runs. Ertijaal is decent, but think needs to come down a few lbs. Line of Reason flopped last time so need to see the form again. Ajjaadd is a 5f Espom horse not for this I don't think. Almargo was always going to find handicaps hard after win at Glorious Goodwood and now needs to come down in weights although claimer might help. Ninjago 6/1 is one of my soft spots, but really is a very good 6f handicpper. Will need to come through traffic, but goes well fresh, Hannon's lot in good nick. A good favourites chance. Am worried about Merhee because 6f def his trip but maybe slightly to high in weights. Sholaan 8/1 is tempting as really has come down the weights and did really well in the Sprint last year despite poor start. Dark Emerald drops 2f and not sure if will suit. Master of War 20/1 was a 6f specialist and every chance could spring a surprise as on a decent mark.

This is tough!!

Meydan 3.55 - hmm, don't yet know how good a few of these are and I can't pick who will have improved the most, but it’s worth punting Ad Item 9/4 will the most as De Kock’s horses always do!

Meydan 4.30 - Burnt Sugar 3/1 should walk this on ratings. De Kock has a few but the only one with a run is Mastermind 4/1 who could take advantage if Burnt Sugar is not fit

Meydan 5.05 - most of these have to prove this distance and willing to cross most out who haven't including high class Meandre. Never thought would see him in a race like this. Famous Kid is very tempting here but want to see him do the distance first. Suggestion is he can. Elidor really does have the class to win a race like this off this weight, but a couple I fancy more and obvious picks. Ahzeemah 7/2 is the class act, but off these weights last time over C&D Star Empire 4/1 beat Ahzy. It’s fair to say Ahzy has improved since then and SE is getting older, but Star Empire does have the fitness edge. Rio Tigre doesn’t look well handicapped but I can’t assess French form and the same message for Bank of Burden. Will forecast the two top weights

Meydan 5.40 – African Story on paper very good, but has not been tried on dirt and first run of season. Similar story for Prince Bishop. Capital Attraction looks a big price but must be the trip so will leave. I’m torn between 3 of these. Cooptado 12/1 ran a quick time over C&D but Le Bernardin 12/1 ran a very quick time over C&D and Surfer 5/1 we know has the class. Not sure where to turn and also ruling out African Story and Prince Bishop is not really that sensible. Tough

Meydan 6.15 – A few of the reserves are very tempting but won’t know if they are running until later. Our Channel will break early from the low draw and try to make all. Not sure he will hold on. Captain Lars might improve but not sure if well handicapped. Hannon/Hughes could have a blinding day and Magic City 10/1 could be another winner. Again the issue he’ll have is traffic as is a hold up horse, but if gets the breaks could go close as the pace will be set up Our Channel. Don’t think Samuri Sword is well handicapped. Flying The Flag could be well handicapped but need to see it and first run back. Professor probably too high in weights and better over shorter. Wee Jean needs to bounce back. Slumdogmillionaire looks too high in weights. Avon Pearl, Mufarrh and Van Rooney will find it hard from the draw. Short Squeeze has all kinds of headgear on to help him settle, but again tough draw and risky, but is well handicapped, but will wait for York with him. Nolohay an unknown so will leave. Music Theory 6/1 was flying late on and if does not blow start might be hard to beat. De Kock has two decent change today. Royal Ridge 12/1 is calling me as would have been closer if didn’t fluff start and have to check on home run in, but is he good enough to win? Maybe. Ajeeb 5/1 on the other hand could be good enough to win, but is pretty short.

Bloody hell another tough handicap!