Bet 01/08/2025

Keeping it simple today. Didn't even bother with trends or draw assessment. Goodwood not working out this year :)

Could have got some decent prices if was on the ball earlier when ground turned heavy.  

1.20 Goodwood - Tashkhan 8/1ew

Love soft. Runs well fresh. Can win off this mark.

2.30 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn 12/1ew

Multiple C&D winner on heavy. Ran well enough from poor draw lto. Assuming no worse for it has a great chance in these conditions

3.05 Goodwood - Kerdos 9/1ew

I have Asfoora 8/1 AP and soft no issue. Think the one to beat still but like Kerdos chances. In good form as is Cox and goes in the ground fine. Clarendon House may be a big ew play.

3.45 Goodwood - Carrytheone 9/1ew

Only Liberty Lane is as good on this ground.

4.20 Goodwood - Game Striker 20/1ew

C&D winner and ped says will like soft. I backed Ardisia 70s lto and was potentially really unlucky. Put a small cover on this.

4.55 Goodwood - Ride The Thunder 10/1ew

Decent formlines. Will like the ground and step up

Bets 31/07/2025 - Not So Glorious Goodwood Day 3

 Not sure would have picked many of these winners on Day 2, even in hindsight. 

1.20 - Want a low drawn horse who is prominent. Ersnt Blfeld 25s, is one and the other is Janey Makers. Going for Janey Makers 18/1ew as ran pretty well at goodwood over C&D lto. Missed the break and was running on slower pat of track. Run in Listed twice so obviously rate the horse. Is a bit of juice in her mark. 

1.55 - Coppull 7/2

3.05 - Whirl 11/10

3.45 - Marty Hopkirk 15/2ew. Meets trends. In very good form. Good draw. Prominent runner. Unexposed. Good chance. Wanted to back Nad Alisha Green, but Appelbys horses not running well at Goodwood last couple days.

4.20 - Goldwork 15/2ew. Meets trends. Solid course winner. Eve had two decent winners at GG already. Stellar Sunrise just franked form. Vicotrious One the big danger.

5.30 - Antipodes 8/1ew. Looks well treated and form is working out well

Bets 30/07/2025 - Glorious Goodwood Day 2

Total whitewash. Happens. Didn't expect it. Went with Tony M in the first. Can't find any obvious excuses. Didn't pick but called out Naqeeb 28s and Silawi 18s as ones considered as met trends but Westridge was far too good backed from 22s overnight. Laureate missed the break, Kinross was my best result of the day being a NR. M Appleby's string all ran poorly.

1.20 - Sudu 5/1ew.

Meets the trends. 2lb ahead of handicapper officially, but likely more watching it's win lto. Form of Newbury pretty good. Varian won 2 renewal of this from 3 runners. He also in good nick and his record with lto winners based on this horse profile is over 50%.

Cape Breton, Novelista and Mdawi also met all trends applied.

1.55 - Arabian Dusk 14/1ew

Backed lto. Coming strongly enough but couldn't pick up. I think can get 7f. Pretty strong on ratings for the price.

2.30 - Military Code 7/2

One to beat.

3.45 - Wonder Star 9/1ew.

Wonder Star, Wisper and Patagonia Girl meet the trends applied. I probably missed the value with Wisper but hasn't won of a mark this high before so leaving it.

Wonder Star beat Spirited Style at Ascot by 3lengths. That horse is now rated 106. Even though didn't run that well lto, was some encouragement. Haggas does well with handicap debutants and gotta love Sea the Stars at Goodwood. Think we'll see this horse at Royal Ascot next year. 

4.55 - Diamondonthhill 33/1ew

Ideally you want to be drawn 10 and below. I do wonder with the draw bias today though if anyone is brave enough to move over to grab it in this 7f race. Would only make sense for higher drawn horses to attempt this though.

Native Warrior, Diamondonthehill, Rosycolyn, Physique and Signature Castle meet all trends applied. I can make a strong case for 4 of these, but plumping for the biggest price one. A super consistent horse. Proven at the track. Meets the trends and stable had a 25/1 winner here on Day 1. Jockey is a worry even though takes 5lb claim. I did watch a couple of here rides, and I think she's fine. She won a G1 with JOB in Ireland last month. 

Bets 29/07/2025 - Glorious Goodwood Day 1

1.20 Goodwood - Tony Montana 11/1ew

Naqeeb meets trends but not sure distance is right, though might be one flying home late. Grey Cuban stable in form and meets trends also. Masoun meets trends but JOB no wins here. Silawi is tempting but landed on Tony Montana. Meets the trends, stable in good form and had success in this race. No idea why ran at RA over 8f after two very decent handicap runs. Couple of very solid C&D runs, both with Egan onboard. Form with Thunder Run ties with Nabeeq and this one better on paper so hopefully Tony Montana can be our 'Little Friend'

1.55 Goodwood - Laurete Crown 11/1ew

Got the draw. Decent debut. Palmer in good nick. Had one go very close at 14s last year in this who wasn't as good on paper

2.30 Goodwood - Kinross 5.6

Decent record in the race and ran a stormer lto. Auidence cheekpieces a worry and Noble Champion looks the biggest danger, but 3year olds a 1/22 in the race. Tough one.

3.45 Goodwood - Shagraan 8.6, Dream Composer 22/1ew

Shagraan solid CD performer and well handicapped based on last two runs.

Dream Composer harder to explain as no trends for this race, but when OR of 93 and under is 2 wins, 4 places from 7 runs He also got a 5lb claim who has won at the track before.

4.20 Goodwood - Yorkshire Pud 12/1ew

I remember Big Mojo winning at Molecolmbe at 25/1 after an average debut. Big Evs similar average debut and then won the Windsor Castle at 20/1. Does lightening strike thrice? If any good then the 100/1 for the Gimcrack is going to look decent. Is entered in the Richmond Stakes later in week but this is more winnable. 

4.55 Goodwood - Mahras Love 6.1

Fancies a few for this, but the ped swung it and Haggas won this twice before. Improving horse that knows how to win.

5.30 Goodwood - Harvanna 10/1ew

Back in good form for yard who won this last year

Bets 26/07/2025

Oromulu 100% should have won yesterday. Conor has done the horse over twice now over C&D (as far as I'm concerned)

2.00 York Skybet Dash.

• Those that meet race trends applied are Elmonjed, Jubilee Walk, Aleezdancer and Indian Run.
• Over C&D on Friday those drawn low dominated (3,5,2,4 draw finishing positions). It may mean they all come over and gets crowded.
• I expect Jungle Drums to storm out from stall 1 and make all, setting up those drawn low even better.

Aleezdancer 12/1. Meets all the trends, drawn low, is in stonking form and is a C&D winner off this mark. Stott on fire atm and knows Alzeezdancer well having won 5 times on it so everything set up again for a win.

Rousing Encore 14/1. I'm trying not to make this an emotive bet as should have won at Epsom earlier in the year and cost me a decent pot. A really good C&D win at the Ebor earlier this year. Defo got more improvement in him as showed at Epsom when should have hosed up.

Elmonjed looks an obvious pick as has strong stats all rounds and meets all the trends. As Angus Gold says, he is going to pop up and win a decent handicap. At 5/1 with first time cheekpieces it's enough for me to leave it.

Korker ties in with the RE formline and a massive danger if starts well, but given the draw happy to skip it.

3.00 Ascot International Stakes

• Those that meet race trends applied are Golden Mind, Akkadian Thunder, Oliver Show, Yorkshire, 
• Typically stands side is fastest unless they screw around with watering. Going stick says it's faster so high will have an advantage
• I expect Noble Truth and Northern Express to be the pace and they are drawn 18 and 19 so further setting up those drawn high.

 

Akkadian Thunder 20/1 - For those who follow my blog based on formlines 20/1 was a joke. Market has found it now and it's not as appealing at 6/1, but has the drawn and meets all the trends. O'Meara does my head in thought and has 3 all drawn high. Lord Bertie may well be able to turn the tables with AT.

Billyjoh 10/1. Unlucky in the Bunbury Cup. Maybe should have beaten Akkadian at Doncaster. No chance at Ascot from the draw. Appleby going okay, and had Billy won any of those three races would meet all the trends. 

Golden Mile - 35+ on Exchanges. Could have won the Chesham. Nearly won a big pot at Epsom. Can't find a massive excuse for lto, but if repeats Epsom form given C&D capabilty and that meets the trends is worth a pop

Oliver Show is well handicapped on that Bahrain form and surely is going to win big pot soon, but first time blinkers + current yard form is slightly off putting, but no surprise if went close.

Aalto has a chance on paper but looks too short especially if I'm right about the draw.

I don't think Yorkshire can turn the tables on Akkadian Thunder.

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2.40 Ascot - Bella Lyra - 7/1

3.35 Ascot - Bullet Point 9/2

4.25 York - Yasser 15/2

Bets 25/07/2025

DRAFT 

York 5.30 - Ormulu 16/1. Should have won lto. Seen the race a few times now. I'm not sure I should be backing it again as stable form has slipped and now no longer drawn as well, but either they are plotting this for something bigger or was just unlucky for an entire minute lto and can make amends

Bets 24/07/2025

 Only just watched the Super Sprint back. Wow Ardesia who backed at 70s was potentially really unlucky. Anyhow it's the result that matters! Someone asked me about who i'd pick for Racing League. I've skimmed through quickly for them. 

5.40 Yarmouth - Sword of Wessex 16/1 

If the gelding op and headgear work is well handicapped. Ped on soft no issue

6.10 Yarmouth - Wreck it Ryley 16/1

Acts on soft and in flying form.

6.40 Yarmouth - Atlantic Gamble 13s Ex

Stats are strong. C&D winner in decent form

7.10 Yarmouth - El Boden 7.8s Ex

Massive race first run of season. Goes well on soft. Stable in good form. If recaptures historic form can go close off a dangerous mark.

7.40 Yarmouth - King of Bears 11.5 Ex

No form on soft, but ped says will improve on it. The fact stays 6f will help on 5f soft. Stats look good enough

8.40 Yarmouth - Epictetus 9/1

Looks well handicapped

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