Before I get onto these, this is not how I’d normally stake.
Most of these definitely go against all Jay Desai’s Rules! Will bore you with
my staking strategy on the train home from Bristol, but these are minor pass
the time bets and when I’m in, I’m in with a minimum of £50 a pop.
2.45 Southwell – I’m emotionally attached to Ingleby Arch
(day two and second rule I’ve broken). I fancy it, but not sure if 3/1 is a tad
short. Imprimis Tagula is a horse one of my friends used to own in a syndicate. It
was dire when they owned it; constantly injured and the costs he explained put me off wanting one! However Bailey fixed that, after they sold it! I still want one really :)
3.15 Southwell – Was set to pile in on the class horse in
the race, Nazreef, but is now a NR. I fancy a drop in trip for Follow the Flag.
3.50 Southwell – Captain Bellamy should be my disciplined horse
here, with good form, C&D, solid trainer record, but technically up 11lb as
a claimer this time round. I work that out at 3.33 lengths without factoring
Jimmy Fortune as being able to make some of that up with his class. Storm Hawk
is the other. So discipline should tell me not to bet as I like both, but I am not disciplined so let’s
flutter with a reverse forecast.
4.55 Southwell – NAP Budva. I’m a big fan of jump horses on
the flat. Rite of Passage represents my biggest success in this category in the
Ascot Gold Cup. I was gutted took it at 14/1 when it drifted to 18/1 on course.
Either way I spent all £600 on winnings on champagne. Standard. Back to Budva.
If you watch his last race over C&D he was not beaten by that much as eased
down when well held. Technically riding 7lb lower with a claimer and ran in
bursts of speed in last race – just didn’t jump well. 12/1 is a big price in my
book. Some will argue my book lies.
Ayr 2.20 – McCain has a few playgrounds over the country and
Ayr is definitely one of those. Stats show it’s the chases he churns the most
success but I like Avenging Aces for a place. Just can back TTS at 1/3.
Ayr 4.00 – This morning Mr. Woods opened at 8/1. He has the
class (minus the 99.9% non completion rate). Market confidence suggests might
be on track for a good show today. Into 11/2. The other one I quite fancy is
Sammy Spiderman. Slightly inconsistent but ran on well in last suggesting is up
for the longer trip. Has won at this distance. 6/1.
I always watch out for Wilson at Ayr. Has a couple of
runners but don’t fancy them today. No doubt one will pop up…
£2.50 Captain Bellamy
11/4 - WIN £9.38
£2.50 Storm Hawk 3/1 - LOSE
£1.50 RF/C on Above - LOSE
£2.50 Sammy Spiderman
5/1 - LOSE
£2.50 Mr. Woods 5/1 - LOSE
£1.50 RF/C on Above - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Budva 12/1,
£5.00 e/w 10/1 - LOSE
£10.00 Avenging Aces
7/2 - LOSE
£10.00 e/w Ingleby Arch
11/4 - PLACED £16.88
£5.00 e/w Follow The
Flag 4/1 - LOSE
£2.00 e/w Acc on
Above - LOSE
£80 Total Stake
P&L @ 14/02/12:
-£73.74
P&L @ 14/02/12:
-£73.74
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