Bets 20/06/2012 - Royal Ascot Day 2

Coral paid 10/1 for Frankel to win by 10 lengths or more, and even though I wanted it I never believed that he’d win by 11 lengths! Frankel was scintillating! Tom Segal lost 6 out of 6. Congratulations. Seems to be no surprise lately. Oddly the bookies didn’t massively cut any of his selections yesterday. Makes me wonder. I just know that first race I don’t follow his selection, is the race it’ll win! Maybe I should just bite the bullet, as it’s not doing me any favours. Got far too clever in King’s Stands, and actually the ground was not too soft and three of the top rated horses romped home. Masamah was a non-runner, Sir Prancealot placed, but my two savings graces were Medicean Man, who I forgot I backed ante post after reading a pundit banter on about it in the RP and I have now backed for him the Wokingham and Most Improved really made me smile. I knew he’d come good eventually and after I saw BetVictor laid a £20,000 bet I went in again.

Kings Stand - Stalls of 1st 5 in race - 7,8,22,3,6 (Pace came from 9 and 23)

Windsor Castle Stakes – Stalls of 1st 5 in race -18,4,20,5,21 (Pace came from 5)

I.e. sack the worry about draw bias and find the pace. I know this, just need reminding of this sometimes!!!


Today, Tom ‘Pricewise’ Segal from the RacingPost has tipped:

Ascot 2.30 – Valbchek (8/1)

Ascot 4.25 – Belgian Bill (14/1), Dimension (12/1)

Ascot 5.00 – Hoyam (25/1)

Ascot 5.35 – Duntle (7/1)

***Tom Pricewise Segal Tips***

***My bets (Not tips)***

***Both agreed***

Ascot 2.30 – Ladbrokes aren’t bothered about Reply, and feels like O’Brien is finally having a comedown.  I don’t find it particularly easy finding an improver. Segal has tipped up Valbchek and looks a decent enough bet. The odds of previous winners suggests it pays not to look too far away in the betting, but for some reason Lethal Force @28/1 has drawn me in. Think will make the step up and Laffan and will provide the pace in stall next door. Lastly Aljmaaheer @5/1 winner of King Charles II which is a good trial, posted a decent time and looks set to go well.

Ascot 3.05 – Nahrain and Emulous are the two class acts in the race but both have penalties to carry. Have to confess Emulous looks the part, but I will take last year’s second Chachamaidee to go one better this year. Available at 11/2. Fanshawe watch with Captivator 20/1

Ascot 3.45 – So You Think may well hack up, but I can’t have him at 11/10 and Ladbrokes have no interest. I don’t hide my feelings for Carlton House either. I’ll take him at 7/2 any day, though I’m tempted to go each way with a bigger bet.

Ascot 4.25 – This is a ridiculous race to call. There are a lot of front runners (Boom and Bust in 3, Arabian Star in 9, Rock Critic in 12, and Brae Hill in 23). Sacked these out of the running, removed about 10 horses who aren’t near these horse. Sacked off the 7 and 8 year olds. Sacked off anything that not in good form this season. i.e. not finished in top 4 once this season. Still left with 10 horses! Taken out those who haven’t done well at Ascot or badly on Polytrack and then there were five! Invisible Man, Cai Shen, Edinburgh Knight, Mull of Killough, Dimension. Edinburgh Knight is out on basis won’t make trip. The SBS stable is not in form and I think Invisible Man in now too high in the weights, so tentatively taking out!

Now I don’t know if this is fate, or the same thought process I went through last time, but I’ve already backed Cai Shen @ 25/1 antepost and a nibble of Mull of Kill @ 20/1, Dimension @ 10/1, so actually feeling more confident about these now. Although inevitably this process will be a waste of time! If Fair Trade gets backed then watch out for the Shrewd Morrison. Segal has tipped Belgian Bill as well. I'om half tempted on Invisible Man still. Argh

Ascot 5.00 – Wachman’s record with 2yr olds is pretty impressive. Therefore Mironica is worth a punt at 7/1. Segal has tipped Hoyam, which is interesting because if you follow the form line it all points back to Graphic Guest @ 8/1 who should come out on top if you take it on paper. Difficult with such an unexposed bunch to asses on paper but if you do use stats then Channon is also someone to keep on side and his other runner is Jillnextdoor @ 16/1 who was just beat by yesterday’s Ascot winner Hototo. Hannon also has a decent record in this, but can’t choose between his 3 runners! Hmm.

Ascot 5.35 – This is the first time Ladbrokes have been clear stand out shortest price on an O’Brien horse at Ascot at 8/1. Stanjames are offering 12/1 Devotion, so I’m taking that hint and Hello Glory @ 10/1 interests me. Segal as tipped Duntle 7/1

James Fanshawe Lucky 15 – Sadly the prices for the Buckingham aren’t up yet, but I can still put Macs Power, Society Rock, Captivator and Dimension in an e/w Lucky 15. This guy has a sick record at the festival and is currently in banging form although following placing this bet found out he does even better with his older team.

Total Staked £438.00, Total Returned £393.13

Antepost Bets:

£10.00 e/w Dimension 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Cai Shen 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Mull of Killough 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

Today's Bets:

£10.00 e/w Aljamaaheer 5/1 - PLACED £22.50

£10.00 e/w Lethal Force 28/1 - PLACED £80.00

£18.00 Combination Tricast N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Valbchek 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Belgiam Bill 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hoyam 18/1 - PLACED £55.00

£10.00 e/w Invisible Man 20/1 - PLACED £60.00

£10.00 e/w Graphic Guest 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Trebles N/A - LOSE £0.00

£25.00 e/w Carlton House 7/2 - PLACED £46.88

£10.00 e/w Carlton House 7/2 - PLACED £18.75

£10.00 e/w Chachamaidee 11/2 - PLACED £21.25

£10.00 e/w Mironica 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Jillnextdoor 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Devotion 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hello Glory 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Duntle 11/2 - WIN £88.75

P&L @ 20/06/12:
£2,799.94
AntePost P&L @ 20/06/12:
£1,612.48
Total P&L @ 20/06/12:
£4,412.42