Bets 01/08/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 3

Hindsight is an annoyingly rewarding moment in life if you take heed. Mr Simon Fats was uber adamant we could retire yesterday. Clearly an exaggeration but let’s review the 3 things that ended that dream:

1. THE DRAW. Last year I made little or no reference to the draw. Yesterday I did; I made a big deal of it. Where did it cost me?
1. Race 1 – “Lieutneant Millar and Borxborne def have the best chances at the weights in this but I don’t like their draw” – They came first and second. Though am still a bit peeved off there was no stalls start! Seaside Sizzler still placed respectively so happy with that.
2. Race 6 – “Ribbons has to be respected, but think draw and weight hopefully against her” – Ribbons won and more annoying this was my placepot breaker
3. Race 7 – “Hughes is going to pull off some magic with Magic City from this draw” – Magic City won cosily. Thankfully I backed it, but I still doubted it. I read what Hughes was going to do in this race and he negated the draw
2. HUGHES. Hughes has been extremely bullish about 3 horses this year. Sky Lantern, Baltic Knight and Toranado (“My banker for Goodwood”) – I didn’t listen to him on any occasion and this time cost me Race 3. Muppet. Who knows them better?! If you knew nothing about horses and you watched their last battle you’d pick Toranado every time
3. IRISH DERBY – Race 2 – “I was going to be all over Cap O’Rushes” - the boys were all over it. I didn’t’ like the Irish Derby form but it has been franked. I still think Excess Knowledge was a little unlucky but sure backers of COR won’t agree.

Put them all together with my winner of Race 4 and placed 16/1 in Race 5 and I think Fats you were right….If you ignore the race full of unexposed horses (though that wasn’t overly hard as the winners had all the right credentials) then the above was about 19,0001/1. Ha. As I said, hindsight. Marmite.

Right back to today and Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has tipped up 3 today. He seems to be doing pretty well at Galway; not so much so at Goodwood though:

Goodwood 3.15 – Altano 8/1

Galway 4.55 – Flaxen Flare 16/1, Thomas Edison 12/1

It’s definitely not a ‘retirement day’ today. Looks tricky

Goodwood 2.15 – This is hard. I thought using Circus turn I might be able to split Tha’ir and Mundahesh, but I have them deadheated on BHA ratings, so sod that. Code of Honour and Mushaakis go head to head again of same weight so surely COH beats him again. The key thing for me here is Mushy was on the bridle for a lot longer the COH and COH might just tire himself going up that hill whereas Mushy might not need to hit go until coming down it and also it’s Johnston. Oh feck. I don’t know. I was a bit annoyed I didn’t back Harris Tweed a couple of days ago. A horse running well in Pattern races dropped into a lower grade handicap. I did it with Sirius Prospect only days before and it was fruitful. So perhaps King George River 16/1 might be the one to be on? Bailey is in poor form so can’t jump up and down about it but thumped Glory Awaits and close enough to Intello to suggest well handicapped. I could back most of these to be honest so perhaps let’s not.

Goodwood 2.45 – I’m all over Thunder Strike 10/1 in this. Without Goodwood form to go on, Epsom is next best and he bolted up there. You have the Goodwood King onboard and 10/1 has to be too big

Goodwood 3.15 – Only Sham Desai can tell you how gutted I was when Athos was given a pants ride at Ascot. He is not a G1 horse and has to be debate about G2. However I have to have my emotional bet with Mount Athos 4/1 (Paddy Power will refund if comes second). He is top rated so I’m not giving up on this. Colour Vision 15/2, 2^nd in this last year doesn’t have the penalty that stopped him winning this last year, but Caucas 13/2 has the best form in book against Estimate. Feck. Who to pick?

Goodwood 3.45 – Wild Coco 11/10 is immense. I admit I’m nervous about Elik getting nearly a stone allowance in this, but at 3yr it’s a tough ask. Estimate had the same allowance and was rated the same as Elik last year and could only finish 3^rd.

Goodwood 4.20 – Ridiculous price cuts for Inchila 12/1. Was 25/1 this morning. Possibly a bookie trap but sod it.

Goodwood 4.50 – I could back 7 or 8 in this, and so no real confidence, but Yourartisonfire 12/1 won convincingly enough last time out. Homage and Pythagorean are arguably worthy faves, but I can’t back em. Maybe in a couple of accs.             

Galway 4.55 – Moon Dice 75/1 on Betfair is a bit mental considering won this race easily 2 years ago and with claimer only 6lb higher.

Goodwood 5.25 – Again a number could back here. I like Lord Ofthe Shadows 10/1 based on the race at Epsom a while back. Similar course, ground easier than previous races so hopefully run a good race. Xinbama 12/1 landed me spoils last time out an think has more to offer