Bets 16/04/2014

YES! Sick flat racing on a Wednesday! Newmarket is on the Rowley Mile today and have to remember the incline at the end which doesn’t help speedy front runners if not proven stamina. The reverse on the July course.

1.45 Newmarket – Gosden, Gosden, Gosden. Provident Spirit 8/11. Solid debut, trainer bang in form.

2.20 Newmarket – George Baker reckons Hurricane Harry as he accidently called him faces a tough task in this so despite weight reverse with Flyball I’ll keep Flyball ahead. 5 are debutants so will pass over, although Mind of Madness is the one to fear on trainer form with 2yr olds. Bill Turner’s Abscent Friends won on debut like a lot of his 2 yr olds and he is always someone to follow early season. However Flyball 11/4 is a big horse and just think he’ll improve again. The stable has a decent record in this and will stick with them. Just hope he doesn            t go off too quickly.

2.55 Newmarket – Wedding Ring 11/4 is fit, goes well at Newmarket, Applebys lot are running well after Meydan and is best weighted. Price won’t last.

3.05 Beverley – Aetna 11/4 landed me a phat wedge last time out and is still well handicapped. Signeur 5/1 is the biggest danger today, but runs the traffic risk coming from behind!

3.30 Newmarket – When I saw Segal backed Parbold I was really annoyed as was all over this one and meant could only get 5/1 when bookies changed their morning price. What I didn’t realise was this was a handicap race at the time. I’ve backed him anyway because Fahey really likes this one, but Shifting Power 7/4 of a mark of 105 who has been aimed for this race has to be the pick. I was toying with Mushir as arguably is best handicapped on RPR, but not convinced will stay. He is nippy no doubt, but let’s stick with Hannon. I’ve also got £20 at 90/1 on Betfair for 2k with view to lay out after bolts up ;)

3.40 Beverley – Fahey reckons Flycatcher 7/2 is well handicapped. I don’t see it but I’ll trust him as nothing looks well handicapped.

4.05 Newmarket – Segal has tipped Dorothy B. With Gosden in form I get it. If front runs again will have no chance, but the form is solid. Loads of these are similar though with strong form behind Lucky Kristale, Princess Noor, Kiyoshi etc. It’s tough to work out who will come on top from those. And so I’m going left field. Folk Melody 8/1. Hitting an 95 OR after 1 race with at least 5 runners from that race going onto win, must have a decent chance. Using Dancelot as a marker in that race she must be rated higher. Also have to take a chance on Euro Charline 8/1. The last race puts here as top rated horse in this field, but guess it’s turf and not AW. Still, work a shot.

4.40 Newmarket – Somewhat looks pretty class and has Barlow Mow on form. I’m just wondering whether the 3lb Listed penalty might be a penalty kick to Somewhat. He has been aimed for this. Truth or Dare finished well behind Kingston Hill, Master of The World related to KH will no doubt go one from here too, but the two I’m toying up are True Story 7/4 who bolted up in last race whilst green looks a 110 at least. And Obilterator 5/1 who is related to Just The Judge will def also improve from a solid debut. My only concern with both of these is the lack of experience might hurt their chances. I think True Story 50/1 is worth a nibble for the Derby….

5.10 Newmarket – Munjaz 11/8. Good form on course. Looks like will stay and it’s another Gosden lad.

5.40 Newmarket – If Quiet Warrior 8/1 is as effective on Turf, he ought to go close. Was toying with Expert but weight will be a burden. This is hard to call but I’ll take a chance with Sleepy Sioux 12/1. Looks on a capable mark although I’m not sure likes Newmarket. But at the weights worth a chance.