Backed some of these during the week. Some price changes. Gunning for Seemar to have a decent night.
11.30 - Race 1- Dubai Kahayla Classic (Group 1) - Dirt - Asfan Al Khalediah 5/6
Can't see it beat. The fc with Tilal Al Khaldiah seems a cert too, with maybe Alarqam or Rb K in 3rd.
12.05 - Race 2 - Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Emaar (Group 2) - Dirt - Saudi Crown or Isolate should win this even from rubbish draws as these two are pretty far ahead on ratings and so wouldn't be surprised if was a 1-2. That said, I can't back either at the prices nd likely speed they are going to set off at and the one I pop for is:
Walk of Stars 12/1ew - There is going to be a lot of speed and from this draw WoS can sit behind the lead and then use it's stamina to power pass :) Given stays the extra distance this might be valuable for a pace that might collapse. Finished 3 lengths ahead of Clapton (Rated 112) and 10 lengths ahead of 100+ rated horses in a G2 lto, so is a case to suggest that it's rated higher than 107. Eastern World 50s and Qareeb 25s are not the worst bib ews shot I've seen,. If there were 4 places I'd have back Qareeb 25/1ew.
12.40 - Race 3 - Dubai Gold Cup Sponsored By Al Tayer Motors (Group 2) - Turf - Could back half a dozen of these all towards the top end of the market. Trawlerman top on ratings, but ran so badly in this last year. Elder Eldrov, Tower of London, Siskany and Giavellotto all have strong formlines with each other and could make a case for any of them. However, what's done it for me is watching Siskany lose it last year. Therefore I want a horse that will 100% stay the trip and a bit more, so for me its:
Coltrane 6/1ew - With 5 places on offer at 6/1 I'd be really surprised if worst case was money back. Best runs I think have come on fast ground and Balding is on fire atm as is Oisin. Stamina going to be key.
1.15 - Race 4 - Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi Developments (Group 1) - Turf - California Spangle and Casa Creed solid on paper. I can't back Spangle who has just raced on one track all it's career no matter what the ratings say. Casa is surely not a 6f horse. A couple of solid 3year olds in Star of Mystery and Frost at Dawn who at the weights should win. Star's last run was a worry and I think FaD is a better 5f horse so plumping for:
Danyah 12/1ew. Won this race last year. Lto ran a blinder without cover an a poor draw. My biggest worry is actually Crowley. Only a 6% SR at Meydan.
1.50 - Race 5 - Uae Derby (Group 2) - Dirt - Hmm. I was backing Killer Collect in this race, but is a NR. Two AoB unknown on dirt is a worry for me. Autobahn is interesting at a big price given proximity to KC, Guns and Glory also decent. With the blinkers on is gona go try make all again. Forever Young probably wins this and wins well, so will stick in an acca, but I'm going with:
Mendelssohn Bay 9/1ew. Massive step up last time and given family have broken the track record and won this race and the gold cup, I really think/hope we'll see another massive step up.
2.25 - Race 6 - Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Nakheel (Group 1) - Dirt - I think Tuz has got the draw to go win this. The difference between tonight and other festival races is of course the speed upfront. So many of these are going to battle it out. I can't work out what will happen, so will pick two:
Tuz 8/1ew - To make all. Has the draw to get a start on some of these, but I don't know enough about many of these Jap/US horses.
Mouheeb 20/1ew - Pick up the pieces. Decent win for me lto. Looks solid. The draw is dire and normally I stay clear, but given 4 or 5 of these will try to make all something could come flying down the outside (like Mouheeb).
3.10 Race 7 - Dubai Turf Sponsored By Dp World (Group 1) - Turf - Do Deuce is the best horse in the race for sure, but this is 9f and not 11/12f so it is still the best? Hmm. Surely should have run in the Sheema? Maybe scared? Dunno, anyway for me it's too odd, even though I'm sure will probably win. The two Gosden horses are very good but the draws bother me. I backed Luxembourg last week at 14s, but I'm not sure I agree with it anymore. Was on a whim. Have two fancies in this:
Voyage Bubble 12/1ew. Backed earlier in the week. The form is ridic behind Golden Sixty and Romantic Warrior.
Catnip 66/1ew - The form behind Warm Heart not to be sniffed at. Lemaire is decent around here and trainer send 1 horse here before and won. Was a 6/4 fave but nonetheless. Draw is decent. I hope for a place with this.
4.00 - Race 8 - Longines Dubai Sheema Classic - Turf - If Auguste has trained on then this will be some race. Liberty Island and Emily Upjohn with AR could be something to behold
Auguste Rodin 11/4
Justin Palace 12/1ew - I seem to have backed this last week and not written notes on why....
4.35 - Race 9 - Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) - Dirt - Laurel River will make all and hopefully Derma Sotogake will catch.
Derma Sotogake 4/1
Laurel River 12/1ew
