Health Warning before start posting my thoughts for this week. Goodwood has been tough for me over the years. I went through my last 14 years of Glorious Goodwood betting and only made profit in 8 of the years. Worst meeting was -28 which isn't too bad in the grand scheme of things. Last year I did not a winner until Day 4 when had a 20/1 and 12/1 winner but I remember those first 3 days. Painful. I found a betting slip from 2012 to remind me it's possible to smash it though :) Either way do not get carried away with life changing accas and don't chase this meeting.
1.50 - This tends to go to an improving 4 year old who has won over at least 1m2f. I think this is quite tough to be confident on the winner as most of the top 6 in the market have a serious chance.
Yabher meets all the trends. Won by 6l over CD. Won't get an easy lead again but looked decent when hit go and interestingly is 0/4 with left hand tracks so can maybe forgive York.
Midak was 9/1 for the Derby and is ahead of mark. If breaks cleanly and doesn't run too free, can go close.
Diego has been well backed. Entered in a G3. Form is good and Lyons is 1/1 here.
Al Ali I backed in Dubai believing was well handicapped and bolted up lto very easily. Something has clicked.
Quai De Bethhune won well at Ascot but not sure what's happened since. Has the talent to win though.
Twisting Physics is very interesting on trends and very unexposed for a 5 year old with a very good 5lb claim, but Cole has no record at Goodwood, so have to pass this one.
Diego is no price now, but must be a lot of confidence behind it. Going with Yabher for C&D form and Al Ali for potential I saw in Meydan that now might be unlocked. This was also have one high and one low draw.
Yabher 8/1ew
Al Ali 8/1ew
3.35 - Trawlerman now has the fitness and 1lb pull, which is the margin I need to give him the vote to win
Trawlerman 2/1
4.10 - Race has changed format so trends in the bin. Keeping it simple. Twinlight Calls and Seven Questions are the best on numbers. Twinlight cruised to win lto and Seven Q's was given a magic ride by Spencer over C&D in May but had lbs in hand. Taterstalls was not next best on numbers but his C&D form is very good, just a question of whether low enough mark to win. Rappers Delight frustrated me couple times in Meydan but is no doubt going to win soon but Twinlight had the full measure of him lto. Jasour is well handicapped on graded form and could easily win this if turns up. Toca Madera is impossible not to back though given draw, front running style and previous glorious goodwood form and again helps cover low and high draw now.
Twinlight Calls 8/1ew
Seven Questions 16/1ew
Toca Madera 16/1ew
5.20 - 3year olds have farmed this race and Annastarzy looks a solid improver and a C&D winner. Proposal was interesting but has to overcome a difficult draw. Liked Crazee Icon and Wid also but stick with one given price.
Annastrzy 4/1
5.55 - Beaujolais Nouveau is a mental price at 40s when compared to Bintaryana. Can make all from Draw 1 and get a very soft lead as not many front runners drawn low. Machadadrop looks a likley big improver and main danger.
Machadrop 9/2
Beaujolais Nouveau 40/1ew. (For transparency I've backed at 50's on exchanges and laid out in running at 10s to get my 40s. I placed a Top 5 bet separately. If front runs and gets a soft lead odds should drop to below 10s on the exchanges 1 - 2 furlongs out).
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