Saturday, 4 May 2013

Bets 04/05/2013 - 2000 Guineas

Woopee freaking do. We are here! It’s going to be big. And I’m going to miss it all L However, won’t stop me from punting. The first thing I have to do is go through ALL my AP bets. This might take a while. So, Antepost bets:

AP Losing Bets:
£5.00 E/w Treble – Dawn Approach 10/1, Mars 8/1, Newfangled 8/1 – LOSE - Gutted about this
£75.00 e/w Nargys 1k 25/1 – LOSE – Was hopeful about the value in this
£15.00 e/w Aquatinta 1k 40/1 – LOSE – Will keep an eye out on this one though for heavy ground
£15.00 e/w Sendmylovetorose 1k 33/1 – LOSE – Stupid bet

AP 1k:
£100.00 e/w Just the Judge 1k 20/1
£15.00 e/w What A Name 1k 12/1
£15.00 e/w Snow Queen 40/1 1k

AP 2k:
£15.00 e/w George Vancouver 2k 20/1
Through backing and laying on Betfair £23.50 liability pays £155.51 on Dawn Approach and £296.50 on Mars

AP Accs:
£15.00 e/w Double – Moth 7/1 1k, Mars 2k 9/1
£15.00 e/w Double – BoM 7/1 Derby, Mars 2k 9/1

Right that wasted 45 minutes. Man my admin is slack, but I’ve got is all down now. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked out:

Newmarket 2.05 – Rye House 7/1
Newmarket 2.35 – Doc Hay 25/1
Newmarket 3.50 – Moohaajim 25/1
Churchill Downs 11.24 – Normandy Invasion 11/1

I had a look at how I did last year and it wasn’t a white wash but it wasn’t a profitable one either so will try not to go overboard. Right, my bets for today are:

Newmarket 2.05 – Basseterre was one of my frustrating horses last here and has a chance, but I struggle with him so will avoid. Am stuck on Dance and Dance, Icebuster, Boonga Roogeta and Patriotic. Feck. Will stick with Dance and Dance 25/1 on previous form and Icebuster 12/1 on current form. Will be annoyed if one of the other two win!

Newmarket 2.35 – Spirit Quartz 7/1 is a decent yardstick and I think the best horse in the race. (OR agrees). Tangerine Trees 16/1 has to be overpriced based on record here and current form. Make sure you go with bookies paying 4 places!

Newmarket 3.10 – 4 horse race. Avoid. Tactics will win it.

Newmarket 3.50 – So AP I already have Mars, George V and Dawn A covered. The obvious thing for me to do is back Toronado 2/1 with Ladbrokes who are refunding bets is Dawn Approach wins. This has to be between the first 2 in the market, but with Ballydole here it’s not that easy. We’ve not seen Garswood of the bridle, but he could easily be a contender as could Van Der Neer and Segal’s pick Moohaajim. It’s not clear cut. I’ve been a fan of Mars for a long time, but I think he’s my Derby winner. I reckon George V will be the best of the Ballydole lot today and that’s why I backed him AP @20/1. I’m not having any more bets. Sorry to disappoint J

Newmarket 5.00 – Unsinkable 11/2 looks the least unexposed even if the favourite does look decent

Newmarket 5.35 – Glean 4/1 on C&D form with Havana Gold. Hannon is flying too.

Goodwood 2.55 – The Confessor 13/2 has a solid record here and can go well fresh. Tempted by Shamaal but has been done over by draw here again

Goodwood 4.05 – Feel bad betraying Stirring Ballad, a horse that made me a lot of cash last year, but Sentaril 3/1 looks smart

Doncaster 6.45 – Bonnie Charlie 25/1 looks tempting on this mark over a furlong shorter than has previously gone. Will go straight into the lead and try and win it from the front.

Churchill Downs 11.24 – Revolutionary 9/1 worth a punt

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