Chester 2.15 –
Like the first race it’s probably best to sit out and watch, but I have no
discipline. I really want to back Gertrude Versed, but the form really doesn’t
stack up. Although half sister won this for Gosden few years back. I’m going to
take a risky bet on Hollowina 16/1. I think the step up in trip will be the
making on the horse. Trainer has a 25% SR here.
Chester 2.45 – This
will be a decent race and looks a decent renewal. Stats suggest the draw won’t
be a massive hindrance. I’m still keen
on Tominator 10/1 as ground has stayed quick. He is normally a favourite pick
for Segal, so surprised he didn’t pick him out. So many have chances. Ingleby
Spirit has never raced beyond 1.4, but his hurdles efforts suggest will be no problem,
but it’s a risk. Justification is Segal’s pick and must have every chance if takes
to quick ground. Softsong should not be last in the betting, so had a half bet
on Betfair at 90/1. Has decent form on the flat in France and ran a blinder behind
Meandre on good ground back in the day so ground should be okay. Countrywide
Flame has obvious chances. Buckland 12/1 is potentially well ahead of the
handicapper after last week’s performance behind Estimate. Can’t have Ile De Re
at the weights and on the ground. Thimaar looks handicapped to his legit mark,
else would have been tempting with the conditions and same goes for Simenon. If
Theology is fit and back to best he could make a mockery of the chance the
handicapper has given. I like Suraj, but is perhaps not race fit and also is
drawn uber wide.
Feck so in summary – this is not easy. I’ve gone full bets
on Tominator 10/1 and Buckland 12/1 and half bets on Softsong 90/1 and Theology
16/1
Chester 3.15 – I like
both Segal’s picks (Gatepost and Captain Dunne) but the problem I have with both is fitness. Therefore I’m
far keener on Noble Storm 9/1 who has run well here before, can go fresh and
has okay draw.
Chester 3.50 –
Space Ship 10/3 without Russian Realm. Has decent form behind Telescope and
Improvisation. Top young ones.
I was going to play heavy and have 1 big bet today, on Countrywide Flame. As you have not posted this up as a bet, that is enough for me not to do it. Instead, I will go with a fun day and small punts in each of the TV races, main bet will be Noble Storm for me today.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck today pal.
Ha! don't let me stop you! It's the most obvious pick in the race, it's just the fact it's still GF that slighlty put me off. I'm still tempted to have a saver on CWF!
DeleteNo no, as you say it is the most obvious pick. Perhaps too obvious. It's just the fact I like taking the jumpers in the long distance races, and is weighted far inferior on the flat, had a great season and fit. But I can talk my way out of it - especially with the OBrien runner - could be anything. And I don't like the fact that Kiama Bay has got in the race (same stable as CWF and I would be angry if that popped up and won). I will be sensible today!
ReplyDelete