Bets 01/06/2024 - Derby

13.25 - Perisca. Missed the ew price so not going to back it. Going with Golden West 16/1ew. Looks well handicapped and Masar (sire) won the Derby. 

2.00 - Running Lion 15/8 - Best horse in race. On paper is still improving and came back a much better horse over the break. I didn't back Luxemborg yesterday as focussed on the sire stat. Ignoring the fact Roaring Lion's offspring are 0/6 at Epsom. Small saver on Chic Colombine 8/1 as gets a huge allowance

2.35 - Regal Reality 9/2 best horse on best form. Other than Royal Dubai everything looks pretty exposed.

3.10 - Tears of a Clown and Enchanting. Both 20/1ew

3.45 - Silkie Wilkie 9/2. Lame price but best handicapped. Dream Composer and Chipstead next but just back SW.

Derby - Ancient Wisdom 7/1ew. I was really hoping Portland was going to run. Anyhow. I backed City of Troy 7/1 and Los Angeles 11/2. I read a stat about Justify 3yr olds and that Camelots are 0/34 at Epsom. All roads point to Ancient Wisdom. 10 of last 11 winners drawn 7 - 12, so all systems go.

5.15 - Relentless Voyager 9/1ew, L'Astronomie 22/1ew

5.50 - Mr Wagyu 6/1, Mums Tipple 10/1 as a cover

Bets 31/05/2024 - Oaks

This time last year was very close to 2,400/1 quad in the first 4 races, but Haatem fluffed the start in the Woodcote.

2.00 Woodcote - Been so busy forgot to bet New Charter 9/4. Think was 9/2. Ahhh Solid form with Mountain Breeze who is fave for the Albany. Megalitihic was the only danger I could see in the field. New Bay ped perfect for this. I'm not sure it's value now, but alas punting it anyway.

2.35 - Last year focussed on a front runner who I know will stay. Bencare 12/1 ew fits the bill this year. Twice a course winner. Ran well enough in the Licoln Trial before wandering around. I've forgiven Kingscote now after winning on Kerdos, but he has a good record at Epsom. I'm nearly convinced Orbaan 16/1ew is back. Running of 12lb lower than last year when a decent fast finishing 3rd. I just think needs better ground, but at 16s I'm happy to have a small ew. Koy Koy 11/2 is the one to spoil the party. In Meydan was not ridden prominently like needs to, to win. Would have finished closer lto. I'm not backing Koy Koy though as two is enough but there's a tempting tricast here.... If Dutch Decoy wins then I cry. Bopedro I'm keeping for an HQ Handicap.

3.10 - I have Emily Upjohn 11/4 Antepost. I do worry about Shoemark. Camelots have never won at Epsom which is madness given he won the Derby, but that crosses Lux off. Feed The Flam is interesting, but I have no need to do anything else.

3.45 - Bolster 9/2ew - Should have backed it when earmarked as was 7/1. Anyhow. I had 4 or 5 I liked in this. Killybeg will make all and hopefully Bolster will sit prominently and win it. Improved a lot last time out and think ground should still be soft enough.

4.30 Oaks - Ylang Ylang 15/8 just wins. Form, ped, draw, running style all points to it

5.40 - I was keen on both O'Meara horses but changed first pick to Spanish Star 8/1ew. Remember this winning last year and no idea how collared Darkness. Running of 2lb lower and previous race suggests in good form. Rhoscolyn could surely go close, but perhaps given is due to go down -1, will shed some more ready to bolt up at Glorious Goodwood.

7.15 Donny - Sky Warrior 7/1ew

Bets 25/05/2024

 York 1.35 - Do you just back Royal Pleasure 5/1? Last run says yes, but I hate the draw. So many I fancy today are draw high. Urgh. Will back this one, but leave the rest. I also like Little Muddy 16/1ew based on current form and some previous C&D runs.

York 3.20 - River of Stars 5/2. Best horse in the race for me. Won this last year also.

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Goodwood 1.30 - I like Al Shabab Storm 4/1. Only thing I'm worried about is Advertise prog just don't seem to cut it C2 an above. Big worry.

Goodwood 2.05 - Regal Jubilee 5/2 to bounce back to form

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Haydock 1.15 - Be really surprised if Candonomore 5/1ew didn't place. Given it's mark I'd hope it wins. Did a 

Haydock 1.50 - Kerdos 14/1ew was maybe unlucky not to win lto. Profitable (sire) won this race. Beautiful Diamond 6/1 next best. Maybe even the tricast with Vadream...

Haydock 3.00 - English Oak 9/4. Banging on the door. Down in class. Stable in form an have won this race before.

Haydock 4.10 - The Amazon 11/4 - How has it got away with this mark?

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Chester 4.05 - Boardman 8/1ew is going to win as some point soon.

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Curragh 2.30 - Backed Art Power 5/1ew earlier in week. Think my 3rd Tim Easterby horse today. Hmm. Top rated and won this race last year.

Curragh 4.15 - Timourid 33/1ew 

Curragh 4.50 - Monasterboice 14/1ew

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Windsor 6.05 - Sensorium 13/2ew. Missed the 14/1 price but in a recent video Dylan said was 'ready to win'. 

Bets 17/05/2024

2.15 York - Magic Mild 15/2ew, Invincible Annice 16/1ew

2.45 York - Reach 9/1ew, Eilen Dubh 12/1ew

3.15 York - Bolsena 11/2ew

4.15 York - Under Seige 7/4

4.45 York - Danzan 10/1ew

5.20 York - Midnight Affair 18/1ew

2.30 Newbury - Cracksing 11/2ew

3.23 Newmarket - Firayn 20/1ew

Bets 15/05/2024

 2.15 - Klondike 9/2 - Based on the Bahrain Trophy and the listed at Goodwood race before is well handicapped. Haggas won this race 2 / 3 times and in good form.

2.45 - Lethal Levi 15/2ew - 2nd in the race last year and other than a slow start his reapparance was better than last season and running off 5lb lower

3.15 - Dilligent Harry 22/1ew - I backed this yesterday as was a crazy price for anyone who keeps a close eye on Meydan. May not win as a number in here with a very good chance. Backed Fivethousandtoone 25/1ew also. Shouldhavebeenaring 25/1 burnt me last time, but put small cover on

3.45 - Friendly Soul Evs. Classical Song does worry me a bit though....

4.15 - Elmonjed 7/2 - Chucked in (assuming stays 7f)

4.45 - Tuscan Point 33/1ew

Bets 11/05/2024

Lingfield 1335 - First Officer 9/2 - Improved last 3 runs. All other stats are fine. Esmeray, though, could be totally chucked in.

Lingfield 1350 - Aimeric 9/4. Was trying to take it on with a few like Track of Time and Global Heat. Base Note chucked in on AW form, but all points to the fave in this

Lingfield 1425 - Rubies and Red 11/2ew - On ped, wins. Also had the AoB prep run which most need. Daneille is being well backed but Cracksmans have not won at the track and only won 1 race at this level from 20 attempts, hence taking on. You Got Me was interesting also, but stick with one.

Lingfield 1500 - Meydaan 8/1ew. A derby trial where none won last time out. Hmm. I backed Illinois 33/s for the Derby at some point, although think still can. Meydaan looks a decent ew on stats. Think between Meydaan and Illinois. 

Lingfield 1610 - South Kensington 9/1ew. Based on that Newmarket race last year can win this. 30% place SR for first time cheekpieces for Palmer.

Ascot 1330 - King of The Plains 9/1ew - Based on a few turf runs last year looks well handicapped. Oisin back in saddle and lto was impressive enough, albeit was last season

Ascot 1405 - Topanga 11/1ew. Chucked into a G3 on seasonal debut. Oisin gave up after a blocked ride and its decent form with Relief Rally and the 1KG winner Elmaka

Ascot 1440 - Arabian Storm 14/1ew. Looks a crazy price to me. Based on the listed race at newmarket is well handicapped. Got the draw. Trainer got the form. Got the best sire ped for this race. Suspect could be a cliff horse for me if doesn't win today will win a decent handicap at HQ.

Ascot 1510 - Reposado 12/1ew. Ped bet only. 

Ascot 1545 - Too Bossy For Us 10/3

Ascot 1620 - Miss Apilles 8/1ew Ran well enough behind couple good ones, even though they didnt win nto in step up in grade. STS decent ped,  Ed Walker is firing and thought this would be 4/1 or lower.

Ascot 1655 - Alcazan 25/1ew Tough race. Banking on high draw being okay. Thrown into a Listed race so must think something of her. Good return lto. Teal going okay. With a good lb is below last winning mark now

 

Bets 10/05/2024

Not having a good time of betting atm :)

Chester 130 - Fools Rush In 20/1, Boardman 9/1

Chester 205 - Mr Hampstead Evs

Chester 305 - Passenger 9/4

Chester 345 - Zoffee 13/2, Atzec Empire 4/1

Chester 415 - Law of The Sea 11/2

Ascot 400 - Western 10/1

Ascot 435 - Terabb 5/2, Aljezur 50/1

Bets 09/05/2024

 

Bets 08/05/2024

Chester 1.30 - Beyond Borders 9/1

Chester 2.05 - Kodi Beat 7/1

Chester 2.35 - Kings Merchant 4/1

Chester 3.05 - Port Fairy 9/2

Chester 4.45 - Evocative Spark 14/1

Bets 05/05/2024

 Not too bad with a 9/2 and 6/1 winner and a couple of places, but marginally down on singles.

Couldn't have picked a few of those winners today.

1.50 Newmarket - Kalpana 7/4

2.25 Newmarket - Silver Lady 4/1ew

3.00 Newmarket - Cannon Rock 12/1ew

3.40 Newmarket - Cinderella's Dream 16/1ew

5.25 Newmarket - Sea The Thunder 4/1ew

Bets 04/05/2024

I've assumed ground will be GS. Big risk. Friggin hate when rain does this :(

13.10 - Unequal Love 9/2ew. G2 entry. Top rated for me. Haggas won this race twice, in good form and can reverse with Funny Story.

13.45 - Summerghand 9/2ew. Thought might be a better price, but wishful thinking. Just watch the last race back. The risk is gets caught in traffic again, everything else points to this.

2.20 - Dutch Decoy 15/2 - Backed lto and still fuming at the ride Fanning gave it. Tougher race, and statistically not wise backing a 7year old in this race. 

Majestic 10/1ew. With Channon is such good form might eeek out a few lbs improvement and if so will go really close.

2.55 - Mitbaahy 3/1 - Other than trainer form didn't see any negs. 

3.35 - I don't have any AP bets. CoT ticks all the boxes. 8/11. hmmm. 10 years ago, I'm sure I'd have lumped :)

For fun I'll got City of Troy / Taskforce 20/1 Sfc.

4.10 - Hope You Can Run 16/1ew

4.45 - Moswaat 9/1ew. Entered in the Commonwealth and Prospect Stakes form looks okay to me.

5.15 Newmarket - Christian David 9/1 e/w, Indivar 12/1ew

5.50 Newmarket - Rowayeh 6/1, Crack Shot 6/1

Bets 03/05/2024

 Amazing. I only bet £20 on singles. Normally reckon would have done at least £100.

Lots of decent places even if just one win.

DATE	Bets	Wins	SR%	Staked	Profit	ROI%
Thu May 02 2024	15	1	6.67%	480.00	120.00	25.00%

Carrying on with same testing for now. Gutted it started raining for the Guineas weekend :(

Date	Time	Day	Course	Selection	Jockey	Trainer	Type	Hcap	Cls	Dist	R4?	Rnrs	Odds	SP	BOG	Stake	W/EW	Pos.	P/L	C.P/L	Comments
03/05/2024	15:00	Fri	Newmarket	Love De Vega	Oisin Murphy	C Johnston	FLT	Y	2	7f	0	0	25/1	-	Y	20	EW	-	0.00	0.00	TS+
03/05/2024	15:40	Fri	Punchestown	Private Ryan	Mr J Scallan	S Doyle	CHS	N	4	2m 4f 55y	0	0	10/3	-	Y	20	W	-	0.00	0.00	XGap1
03/05/2024	16:15	Fri	Punchestown	Perceval Legallois	Mark Walsh	G Cromwell	CHS	Y	1	2m 4f 55y	0	0	4/1	-	N	20	EW	-	0.00	0.00	BlueTrainer,ULTO
03/05/2024	17:25	Fri	Punchestown	Ferns Lock	Mr J Hendrick	D Christie	CHS	N	3	3m 160y	0	0	7/1	-	Y	10	EW	-	0.00	0.00	XGap
03/05/2024	18:10	Fri	Newcastle	Queen's Guard	Kevin Stott	Michael Bell	AWF	Y	4	5f	0	0	9/4	-	N	60	W	-	0.00	0.00	RPROR, TS-
03/05/2024	18:35	Fri	Punchestown	Predators Gold	Mr P W Mullins	W Mullins	HDL	N	1	2m 4f 140y	0	0	20/1	-	N	20	EW	-	0.00	0.00	BlueTrainer
03/05/2024	19:40	Fri	Punchestown	I Am Mimi	Mr D G Lavery	G Cromwell	NHF	N	4	2m 2f 181y	0	0	10/1	-	Y	20	W	-	0.00	0.00	BlueTrainer
03/05/2024	19:55	Fri	Newcastle	Feel The Need	Tom Eaves	M Herrington	AWF	Y	4	7f 14y	0	0	17/2	-	Y	20	EW	-	0.00	0.00	FF+9, ULTO