Bets 30/01/2014

The bookies have certainly got the favourites right today. I picked my horses before the prices were out and all led to the favs!

2.40 Meydan – I don’t usually seem to bag these 5f tur  f sprints but will give it a go. Racy is too high in weights. Hitchens in poor form and too high in weights. My Propellor ran too badly in last race to consider as did Seachanach. Roicead has been walloped up the handicap and looks better at 6f than 5f and much more competitive than last easy win. Ahtoug might be able to win again but if you use Steps as a marker this race has to go to Medicean Man 10/1 and on paper puts him ahead of Desert Law and Take Ten too. Dungannon is interesting but this is a step up in class, not claimer and has to defy another raise. Masamah ran well for me last time but not sure the rise will help and MM again beats him on paper using Steps. Fityaan was disappointing last time and not sure can back again. There are two others I can’t shift off the shortlist. Beat Baby and Merhee. No idea how good BB is. Easily winning last two races but I think until I’ve seen him race can’t be confident. And Merhee 7/2 has to be backed. Decent debut and we know most De Kock horses step up again after first run.

3.15 Meydan – Argh – this is a tough one. Have 5 on shortlist. Rebel Song might find this too tough in this company, but stuck with Ottoman Empire, String Theory, Intrigo and Start Right. Start Right never starts right and although travels well doesn’t seem to find any gears so sack him off. We have to trust that Intrigo is going to stay the distance and clearly has a chance if he does. String Theory 4/1 could be special and has to be the main bet and Ottoman Empire is a solid place claim might do better from a decent stall.

3.50 Meydan – Flotilla is clear by 10lb on weight and rating on Shuruq, but Certify surely would have gone on to be a higher rated horse? Hmm it might be that she needs this race, so I am not going to punt on this one.

4.25 Meydan – Tamarkuz 3/1 looks another decent horse in the making. Also possibility Mufarrh 15/2 bounces back to form

Kempton 4.50 – Greensward 8/1. Not sure Just One Kiss is that well handicapped based on previous handicap form.

5.00 Meydan – A number of these have great chances, but I’ve always been a fan of Mushreq 4/1

5.35 Meydan – Too many with maybe chances. Maybe Aussie Reigns if the draw was not so bad. Think the favourite Haafaguinea 7/2 might be the one

Bets 29/01/2014

Always the last bloody leg! Guess should be happy with 4/5 though.

Kempton 5.20 - Poitin 9/4 is finally going to prove to everyone is he miles ahead of the handicapper, although problem is Steelriver potentially is too on AW so can't lump. Evs to be placed on Betfair might tempt me to lump a bit though. Hmm

Could back loads of these horses, but just one more:

Kempton 8.20 - Examiner or Jalingo will probably improve and win but I reckon Truancy 10/1 might be better than last race. Just looked too keen all the way around and ran quickly in snatches. If settles better might reverse form. Decent claimer will help.

Right all eyes on Meydan tommorow!

Bets 28/01/2014

Looks like a decent day to back short priced nags and bank some accumulators. 40/1 for the lot J

Taunton 2.10 – Milo Man 8/11 ought to win this. Will take a decent novice to beat him

Southwell 2.20 – Stand Guard 11/10 to beat La Estrella.

Southwell 2.50 – Tellovoi 10/11 ought to win this on this mark and is in good heart.

Southwell 3.20 – Tacthmaster 4/6 was immense on AW so hoping can return to that form as a dozen pounds in hand on OR

Southwell 4.20 – Stun Gun 7/4 is at least 6 lbs ahead of handicapper.

Worth betting Johnston will let me down! Ha

Bets 25/01/2014

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped up a handful today:

2.25 Chelts – Restless Harry 16/1

2.50 Leapordstown – Talbot Road 8/1

3.15 Doncaster – The Druids Nephew 10/1, Unioniste 11/2

3.25 Leapordstown – Sullane Chief 22/1

Hopefully land a couple at decent prices today: Fingers crossed.

Chelts 1.15 – Ohio Gold 7/1 ran a cracker in a much classier handicap in festival. 2lb lower. Go gold go! 25/1 on Tempest River wouldn’t be worst shout as a decent hurdler at Chelts. Thinking about Dark Lvoer as loves Chelts but ran only 10days ago, so might be tough and does look dodgy jumping.

Donny 12.25 – I can see why Centasia looks well treated down to form of Blue Buttons, but Mcllhatton’s 8/1 form at Doncaster last year makes this one looks miles ahead. Back to this course am hoping for a big run as looked to be travelling really well in last race on come back. Elmore Back 5/1 might be better handicapped than I think too.

Lingfield 12.50 – Loads of C&D winners, but only one winner for me; Sister Guru 7/1. Likes to come from last to first so needs all the breaks, but if gets them then has to go very very close. Poor start last time and was romping home before no space ended that chance in a higher class.

Donny 12.55 – Arnaud 16/1 looks a big price considering how easily he brushed aside Rebel Fitz rated 152. Clearly Rock on Ruby is the one to beat on hurdles from though.

Lingfield 1.25 – Random Success Evs is hopefully progressive and must be well handicapped if is

Chelts 1.50 – I remember backing Our Mick 9/1 in this last year and feeling gutted as he got bumped and unseated. Looked like he was going to go very close. 5lb lower must have a chance. Double Ross. Jesus. Can’t believe he has hit back to back wins here. I reckon though with a 6lb reversal Cedre Blue 7/1 has to be better value.

Donny 2.40 – Urban Hymn 10/3 looks like he could be one that sprints the whole way round and stay and stay

Chelts 2.25 – Giant Bolster 7/1 has proven how good he is at Chelts during the festival. Every horse has to give him weight which puts him bang in contention

Donny 3.15 – Uniotiste 9/2 on paper will eat these lot if runs to his mark. Time for Rupert 14/1 is on a crazy low mark and Niceonefrankie 22/1 is also still leaps ahead of the handicapper, but on the basis Segal has taken a shine to Unioniste then lets double up.

Lepoardstown 3.25 - Quick Jack 3/1 has to be back as the Lyvius/Deep Trouble form has made me good money to date

Chelts 4.10 – If Totalise 6/1 returns back to form he produced in Fred Winter he outght to hack up. Big if though as was poor last time. Lac Fontana 7/1 has always been close to my punting and Nicholls reckons is fairly handicapped so why not.

Lingfield 4.20 – Hopefully Understory 12/1 is underated with the 3lb claim.

Rocky, Mio and Red Sherlock are all wait and see for me, but might have the treble.

Some form of Nicholls acc has to be tapped up today too.

Bets 24/01/2014

Lingfield 3.05 – Hawkeyethenoo 7/2 looked like he was going to get up last time out but just failed. Only up 1lb and the extra furlong will suit. Big chance.

Wolves 7.00 – Hunting Ground 8/1 on Betvictor 4.30pm yesterday. The only other time he has run on AW suggests he is a wad ahead of the handicapper if he stays. Not sure I’d be so sure at 2/1 though.

Week 3 Dubai Carnival Review

Jesus. Forget UK racing. Meydan has always been a good hunting ground and yesterday could have been one of those days I cleaned up. The picks were brilliant but the staking was terrible.

Race 1 - Jamesie was not overly difficult to pick. Was still happy with my choice of Masamah. Finished a decent 3rd. The other pick was useless and I should know better then to pick random horses with little form.

£20 Masamah 8/1 - Placed £3rd, returned £0
£20 Alraihan 7/1 - returned £0

Race 2 - Boom. Certerach won. I went through every horse in that race and it paid off! Excellent Result did okayand will come on with experience. The most horrible thing about this is that I wrote "On paper Certerach 12/1 just beats Topclas". Guess bloody what. Exactly that happened, and the forecast was 160/1!!!!!! Argh

£20 Excellent Result 9/2 - Placed 4th - returned £0
£20 Certerach 12/1 - Win, Returned £260

Race 3 - I really thought I was going to land a 25/1 winner in this. Was a decent enough 3rd place. I wouldn't have picked the winner out and reckon he'll probably win again soon. Free Wheeling was on my short list but again happy with my original pick. 

£10 e/w Derbass 16/1 & £20 Bertiwhittle 9/1 - Returned £0
£10 e/w Capital Attraction 25/1 - Placed 3rd - Returned £72.50

Race 4 - This totally pi$$ed me off. The jockey went way to bloody soon. He won't be a big price next time and this cost me £3,700 as it broke my each way acc! SOB! He should have won, but all I needed was a place.

£10 e/w Plantegenant 14/1 - Placed 4th - Returned £0

Race 5 - This was really unlucky. Mshawish would have won this had he not been trapped in for so long. Very annoying. Even more annoyingly I had the winner on my shortlist.

£20 Mshawish 8/1 - Placed 2nd - Returned £0

Race 6 - I got 1st and 2nd in this but again no forecast! Argh.

£20 Gabrial 11/2 - Win, Returned £130
£20 El Estundoso 8/1 - Placed 2nd - Returned £0

So the singles stacked up as:
£220 staked and £460 returned. So happish.

BUT, for those of you who've seen my mental reverse forecasting and crazy accs you'll be disgusted to know that:
1) I didn't do any £5 reverse forecasts. 160/1 in race 2 and 30/1 in race 6, so nearly £1,000 lost
2) I only bet 25p lines instead of usual £2.50 lines. I hit 5 out of 6 so reckon lost out on another £3,500

Had that German jockey not gone too soon on Plantegent and finished 3rd and not 4th the £2.50 ew acc would have paid £3,700. 

Clearly this is all I could have jockey should have and it didn't happen....

Anyway the good news is I'm picking big priced horses in 14 - 16 runner races that are winning /getting very close to winning. Bring on next Thursday.....

Bets 23/01/2014

I swear Meydan was not this hard last year. It was much easier to pick one of two with really decent chances, but feck me, so many have chances today all at decent prices. I’ve really tried to limit the number I’ve backed today, and I will no doubt regret it once some of the shortlisted pop up, but pah. I’ve managed to keep to 11 horses over 6 races.

2.30 Meydan –Alraihran 7/1 is Barzy’s pick and in a difficult first race might be worth trusting his course supremecy, Instransigent was interesting as decent on AW but wide draw and high mark enough to leave. Masamah 8/1 is one I’ve always liked and the only risk is he does not take to tapeta (which is always a big risk)

3.05 Meydan –Jedi comes back from a long lay off, but maybe one to watch next time. Restraint of Trade is Barzy’s choice so has to be of interest, but again young and looked better on soft. Jutland doesn’t look up to scratch. The Corishcockney, back after a year surely cant’ win this with different trip and surface and big step up in class. Genius Beast won me a solid prize 3 years ago, but again back after a break, but if fit is well handicapped. Bank of Burden and Submariner look too high in weights. Handsome Man needs to prove he is upto this class. Tanfeeth has had enough chances to prove himself so not keen. Dormello has had his chances but tends to start poorly. If fixes that will go close. Right left with Excellent Result, Inthar, Topclas and Certerach. On paper Certerach 12/1 just beats Topclas, but Topclas trainer in Topclass form so is tough, but Certerach is proven on this course multiple times at the level and has to have a decent e/w chance. It’s a big step up in class for Inthar but he come here in incredible form and is very tempting but the only other bet I might have is Excellent Result 9/2. The draw might make it slightly harder, but those Ascot handicaps are strong from and I remember SBS having a decent record in staying races here.

3.40 Meydan – Capital Attraction 25/1 ran poorly last time for me, but it may be that he needed the run. If he produces similar form to last year he can take this at a big price back in handicap company. I like Free Wheeling but think mile is too far. Disa Leader has dropped to a nearly tempting mark and won’t be surprised if goes close. Barbeque Eddie was phenomenal last year and made me decent cash. He’s down 7lb in lower company so he might be chucked in. However I just reckon he has just had it now. He is an old boy. Derbass 16/1 and Bertiewhittle 9/1 who both ran decent races last time out. Derbass interestingly wasn’t given an overly hard time once beat so from a better draw is juicy.

4.15 Meydan – Banoffee is one of my let down horses. She does have decent form on AW but not sure is well handicapped. Plantagent 14/1 has a love affair with Meydan as it somewhat average everywhere else. On this mark he might make his price look silly. Zip Top may well be the one to beat but until proven on Tapeta can’t play a part. Manalapan looks too high in weights I reckon. Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby in 2012 comfortably so is the class in this race and very well handicapped but has to bounce back before I back him. Layali seems to fall short at this level but on his last run puts him in with a chance.

4.50 Meydan – Very few of these have run in handicaps so it’s tough to assess. This is a decent class race and a step up for some of the seasoned handicappers. I would love to say back Anaerobio again and Fulbright but Mshawish 8/1 finished close enough to Dawn Approach, Intello and Torando for me to think is on a workable mark.  It’s a big step up in grade for the other two, but can’t fully write off.

5.25 Meydan – Gabrial 11/2 can go one better than last time . No idea how good Sanshaawees but could romp on paper. El Estuendoso 8/1 might step up after first run back too.

Back in the UK;

1.50 Warwick – Franklin Roosevelt 4/1 back down in class, down the weights can take this.

2.15 Gowran Park – Zaidpour 4/7 should not be beaten

3.15 Gowran Park – Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for Groody Hill 16/1. Decent choice. Might need to Lookoutnow 10/1 for a Rich Revival 16/1 though.

6.30 Kempton – Poitin 4/1 was one I called out a few weeks ago at a massive price and was unlucky not to do better than 4^th at 16/1. Runs of the same mark and if stays the extra 2f will have a very good chance.