Bets 29/12/2013

Really quickly today:

Segal has gone for Jezki 3/1 in the big one.

Doncaster 12.40 - Next Sensation 3/1 is still ahead of handicapper I hope.

Doncaster 1.45 - Oscar Hoof Evs. Best form by a long way and all Hendo's runners have improved after first run

Leopardstown 2.00 - The field need to improve a stone to beat Hurricane Fly Evs. Lets wait til he is toppled before jumping off thechampion

Leopardstown 3.05 - Morning Assembly 11/8

Bets 28/12/2013

Segal landed decent ew accs again yesterday and he goes with 3 more today:

1.45 Newbury - Kaki De La Pree 8/1
2.35 Chepstow - Tidal Bay 14/1
2.55 Leapordstown - Unioniste 6/1

Just a few for me...

1.30 Chepstow - Lookout Mountain 6/1 can reverse placings with Moorlands Mist as 15lb better off with the claimer

2.00 Chepstow - Solar Impulse 5/2 looks to marginally have best form in France. Nicholls likes him.

2.35 Chepstow - I heart Tidal Bay and yes it's a tough weight but Nicholls thinks he has an incredible chance as does Segal so lets go with it. The Henessey is the key indicator for this and we know he stays and stays and stays.

Bets 27/12/2013

A lovely Segal 25/1 double yesterday! Was actually 42/1 if you managed to get his prices, but I did not! Argh! More decent racing and more Tom Pricewise Segal bets:

1.20 Leopardstown - Hidden Cyclone 12/1

2.55 Leopardstown - Sraid Padraig 14/1, Daring Article 12/1

3.05 Kempton - Valoroso 8/1

Bog runner focus today:

1.00 Kempton - Vicenzo Mio Evs has won decent French races on very soft ground

1.30 Kempton - All the favs got turned over yesterday but Grandeout has 6lb weight in hand from Valdez and Dodging Bullets. Grandeout was the best hurdler and I think should have beaten a very useful Hinterland last time out and we know he handles ground.

2.00 Kempton - Utopie Des Bordes 4/1 brings best form to the race and although Mrs Peachy finished 9 lenghts in front of UDB 3 races ago most of Hendo horse have needed their first run and all best form is on soft/heavy

3.05 Kempton - Can kind of see why Segal has gone for Valoroso but at 14/1 On Trend is surely better value coming down so far in the handicpa. A couple races last year where he hacked up at Sandown on heavy and was very close to winning a similar handicap over C&D too off the same mark.

3.40 Kempton - Can't work out whether Three Kingdoms is well handicapped or not. I think he might be so 7/2 is worth chancing as looks better on flatter tracks. The other I like in this is Fergall 8/1. Looks ahead of handicapper.

Not touching Ireland...

Total Staked £320.00, Total Returned £357.38

£20.00 Vicenzo Mio  Evs - WIN £40.00

£20.00 Utopie Des Bordes  9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Fergall  10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Three Kingdoms  10/3 - WIN £90.00

£30.00 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00 £20.00 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Valoroso (Segal) 7/1 - PLACED £0.00

£10.00 e/w Daring Article (Segal) 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hidden Cyclone (Segal) 12/1 - PLACED £40.00

£40.00 e/w Accs (Segal) Accs - PLACED £187.38

Bets 26/12/2013

Sadly only no time to punt today. Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has gone for a couple today:

Wetherby 1.35 – Cloudy Too 9/2

Kempton 3.10 – Silvi Conti 5/1

Kempton may turn out to be the Nicholls and Hendo show,so might be worth a cheeky acc of some sort. 

I've already backed Al Ferof 8/1 for the KG. Cue Card ran badly here last year unlike Dynaste, Menorah and Long Run who love it here. Tough race.

Kempton 3.45 – Quaddick Lake is a few pounds away from winning and the 10lb claim may do the trick. Twelve Roses 4/1 has the best form (More of That) and Special Catch franked that at the weekend. If Beyeh reproduces the romp he pulled out last time then he is miles ahead of handicapper. Beyeh 5/1 w/o Twleve Roses is maybe tempting.


Total Staked £150.00, Total Returned £450.00

£20.00 Silviniaco Conti (Segal) 4/1 - WIN £100.00

£20.00 Cloudy Too (Segal) 4/1 - WIN £100.00

£20.00 Accs (Segal) Accs - WIN £250.00

£20.00 Al Ferof (Antepost) (Segal) 8/1 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Twelve Roses  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Beyeh (w/o Fav)  5/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 21/12/2013

Funny how you can be up £700 after days of good wins and then back to even after 2 bad days! Maybe Tom Segal can help. He has picked:

Haydock 2.05 – Wicklow Lad 16/1

Ascot 3.35 – Kaylif Aramis 20/1, Willow’s Saviour 16/1

Main focus on Ascot, but a few elsewhere too.

Haydock 1.00 – As I am 10/3

Ascot 1.15 – Easter Day 5/4 has good form course form and a trainer who has won this race last 3 years

Ascot 1.50 – Pendra looks awesome, but this is a handicap, but clearly is better than 139 so ought be winging this. Lots of C&D winners but the one I fancy is Gus Macrae 12/1. He won a listed handicap chase here last November of 128 within enough in hand and today he is 122. So it’s a winnable mark and no excuses. The price is 12/1 largely based on average current form so if hits form which is always does at Ascot has a good e/w chance.

Haydock 2.05 – Can see why Segal has picked Wicklow Lad. Was running of much higher mark but does have something to prove for me. Loch Ba, Tartak, Triptico and Night Alliance all on the shortlist. Hmm. Will go with Triptico 16/1 who ran a decent race here in March behind Cedre Blue and Night Alliance 14/1 who is still ahead of the handicapper.

Ascot 2.25 – Surely between the top two and At Fishers Cross 4/7 was a long way ahead of Reve De Sivola last time before mistake cost him maybe even the race. No excuses today. Cost me a heck of a lot of cash last time out!

Haydock 2.40 – More of That’s formline points to Special Catch 11/8

Ascot 3.00 –Houblon Des Obeaux 4/1 loves Ascot and heavy ground! Was nearly tempted by Cedre Bleu.

Ascot 3.35 – The horses that win this aren’t world beaters but they are decent handicappers. Sounds obvious I know, but just like to remind myself. I went through each horse trying to find a reason they coulnt’ win and I was left with City Slicker 11/1, Chatterbox 9/1 and Willows Saviour 16/1. City Slicker bolted up last time pretty much on the bridle and it’s likely the huge hike will still underestimate him. Interestingly the sponsors are shortest about a few horses in the betting City Slicker and Chatterbox both only 6/1. Chatterbox is much more effective on softer ground and I was peeved when we beat MTOY, but having had first run of season will be close at the finish as still only on 143 which might underestimate him. Willows Savoiur is simply a progressive looking horse who likes Ascot. Segal has picked him so adds to the confidence.

When you bet on 8 races, have 5 winners at 16/1, 12/1, 4/1, 11/8 and 5/4 and 2 places at 12/1 and 4/1 you really ought be be making more than this...FUMING...

Total Staked £646.00, Total Returned £934.66

£10.00 e/w Wicklow Lad (Segal) 14/1 - LOSE £0.00 £5.00 e/w Willows Saviour (Segal) 16/1 - WIN £110.00

£10.00 e/w Kaylif Aramis (Segal) 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Accs (Segal) Accs - LOSE £0.00 £5.00 e/w Willows Saviour  16/1 - WIN £110.00 £20.00 e/w City Slicker  8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£78.00 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £263.16

£20.00 Special Catch  11/8 - WIN £47.50

£20.00 Houblon Des Obeaux  3/1 - WIN £68.00

£10.00 e/w Triptico  14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Night Alliance  12/1 - WIN £170.00

£10.00 e/w Chatterbox  9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 As I Am  4/1 - PLACED £0.00

£20.00 Easter Day  5/4 - WIN £45.00

£5.00 e/w Night Alliance  12/1 - WIN £85.00

£150.00 At Fishers Cross  4/7 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gus Macrae  12/1 - PLACED £36.00

Bets 20/12/2013

ARGH! Quiet Warrior was laid for a shed load at 1.21. And guess what, yes, my lay was set at 1.2. FFS! Argh! No bankers today I don't think.

Southwell 12.10 – Better Value 12/1 looks better value than Mishrif Evs.

Ascot 1.00 – Keen to give Mac’s Return 16/1 another chance. Was sick last time out but was very impressive on debut. Such A Legend 20/1 form with Beat That is interesting too

Ascot 1.30 – Rio De Sivola was not that impresseive in a 4 horse race which he made all in as some are saying (Well in my view) and a mark of 122 is not overly compelling although you’d expect him to improve with age and he does get a nice 5lb age allowance too. I just wonder whether Orabora 11/2 who achieved one of the better hurdles marks might be on a decent chase mark. Hobbs mentioned him in his stable tour and although didn’t give any clues away interesting he was mentioned.

Ascot 2.00 – Inevitbaly everyone will be either Volnay De Thaix or Irving and perhaps a few on Splash of Ginge. So I’ll be different. Massini’s Trap is currently definitely a mid 130’s horse proven against Flaxen Flare, Caid Du Berlais and somewhat Jezki and I think so might SoG. The two principles don’t have more grounding for their ratings than a well informed BAH rating which yes will be the best around, but still not proven so at 20/1 willing to give Massini’s Trap a pop.

Ascot 2.35 – 4 horse race so not betting but would have gone with Mr. Mole.

Bets 19/12/2013

Funny how when you have a small good run you think you’re able to pluck out 100/1 and 25/1 shots in competitive fields and bet in 4 runner races  when you’ve always avoided. That’s what happened yesterday but thankfully Quiet Warrior was rampant and that was as I wrote the bigger bet so covered me, and some.

1.20 Exeter – Shammick Boy 5/1 and Look for Love 18/1 both look to have a chance here. Both have soft ground form and course form and are on conceivably winninig marks. Look for Love had first run back and looked a bit rusty but if you look back to April he beats Shammick Boy on formline. However SB takes a big drop in class here and you’ve be very disappointed if was not in top 3.

1.50 Exeter – 4 horse race so avoiding even though Bury Parade looks likely.

2.10 Towcester – Gorgehous Lliege 13/8 lost an iron at beginning of last race and his record here is 121. Looks worthy favourite in this lower class.

2.50 Exeter – I know I shouldn’t be hitting long shots but old boy Knapp Bridge Boy 65/1 looks too good to pass up. Runs well fresh and won a similar race last year over C&D by 16 lengths when only 4 pounds lower.

5.30 Kempton – The two market leaders look worthy but there are two who are definitely better at Kempton than their handicap mark and worth chancing ew. Bint Alzain 16/1 and Moortahan 16/1. The latter ran half a dozen lengths behind horses who finished close to Toomore and Steeler.

6.30 Kempton – Asia Minor 4/1 to bolt up again.

7.00 Kempton – Grey Mirage 11/10 is the banker of the day so a large back to lay bet again. Last month in a class 2 over C&D he beat higher rated horses by 6 lenghts with a quick time. If he front runs again then theres always the danger of something catching him so hence why hitting the lay button at about 1.2

Bets 18/12/2013

A few more nice wins yesterday. Slightly peeved ditched Forthefunofit for Cool Sky as would have been a nice treble, but all good.

Newbury 12.10 – May consider backing Dawalan 6/5. A number of Henderson horses have needed their first run and actually the form of that last race is sound and this is a drop in class.

Newbury 2.15 – This is really competitive and probably not worth betting on. Gullinbursti 2/1 has to rate as a worth favourite as on official OR he has 6lb in hand. Hadrian’s Approach will have perfect conditions today to prevail as in fact all the rest do. O’Fs Boy is clearly a danger on Chase debut as was rated the same as Gullinbursti over Hurdles. If pushed would stick with the favourite though

Newbury 2.45 – Tistory and Broomfield probably deserve their place at the top here. The former has to give weight all round as is entered in a G2 in 2 days time, so not sure why is here. Unconvinced maybe? I’m not as close this year to hot juveniles, but I do remember watching Captain Cutter and thinking was pretty decent. On that form, I think Fine Words 22/1 absolutely has to be worth and ew punt. RPR ratings have him down as 4^th best, not 8^th best.

Kempton 4.20 – Thankyouverymuch cost me a wad of cash but that formline must be the best on show here and so going with Spring Tonic 6/1 ew

Kempton 5.50 – Quiet Warrior 10/11 was hammered in the betting last week before the meeting was canned. Same again today. I’m going to have a big back to lay on Betfair on this one so don’t lose any money if gets close to winning. Travelled very well on debut and has solid chance to win today.

Kempton 6.20 – A very competitive race with loads of C&D winners and hopefully it will be a truly run race with those held up storming home. If they do I have to be with Troopingthecolour 7/1 ew. He takes a long time to get going so reckon could trade at a high price, but that race wime was pretty quick and beating Glorious Protector who is a solid 3 year old is good form.

Kempton 6.50 – Time for a 100/1 ew bet. Swale Star ran okay for about 4.5furlongs before the pace increased against some decent enough horses over 6f here. Is bred to be a 8f horse so there is a slither of hope that might improve after first run and step up in trip and 5lb claim

Total Staked £610.00, Total Returned £662.36

£20.00 Troopingthecolour  5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 Troopingthecolour (Backed then Laid)  6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Spring Tonic  5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Gullinbursti  7/4 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Dawalan  10/11 - WIN £38.18

£385.00 Quiet Warrior (Backed then Laid)  10/11 - WIN £624.18

£10.00 e/w Fine Words  22/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Swale Star  100/1 - LOSE £0.00

£42.50 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

Bets 17/12/2013

Going to a have a few bets today but all minimum £20 bets and an ew double on the jumps picks.

1.40 Catterick – Cool Sky 5/1 ew. I thought he ran a decent race last time out but had a pretty hard flat campaign for a young one and a break and with that experience and being held up a bit more can take this. The reason going each way is Forthefunofit who lost me a bet last time out might well be the one to beat

2.00 Southwell – I knew La Estrella 8/11 would get beat against Reve De Nuit last time out at Southwell, but really does not have any excuse except age today

2.50 Fakenham – Hopeland 7/1 ew. Again there might be a couple better handicapped, but won by 28 lenghts (which value for more as was eased) over this distance two races ago. Last time I think was too far.

3.00pm update... Kanfer has given me a tip. 3.10 Catterick - Master Dee 2/1 so will have a score on it and maybe a back to lay on betfair as well seeing as made a nice bit on earlier bet

Total Staked £100.00, Total Returned £157.45

£10.00 e/w Hopeand  11/2 - WIN £86.00

£20.00 La Estrella  4/6 - WIN £34.55

£10.00 e/w Cool Sky  4/1 - PLACED £18.00

£20.00 Master Dee  2/1 - PLACED £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £18.90

Bets 16/12/2013

A decent enough weekend. The only daft thing was betting on 5 horses in the big handicap. I thought Sew on Target was going to do something for me, but did not last after front running. The New One looks decent but not sure how to assess with Hurricane Fly yet. More of That looks decent and Kings Palace who was the obvious lump job looks like a potential banker for the festival as does Briar Hill.

I was happy I managed to only bet in a few races on Saturday. I will try to keep doing the same. Also, I thought I would stop lumping, but I don’t think I will. I’ll just change tactics and use Betfair. Going to back big and lay off at around 1.2/1.3. I’m happy to hedge because 4 of 5 lumps that I’ve lost this year all traded really short before coming 2nd, so will give it a whirl….

Plumpton 1.15 – Everyone is tipping Knock House 7/4. I’m not convinced is a banker but will go with it. He can have a score of my money but that’s it and if that Hendo horse gets act together looks dangerous alongside Sky Watch.

A fair few interesting looking favourites, but the rain makes it hard to assess how deep it's going to get, so leaving alone

Total Staked £20.00, Total Returned £50.00

£20.00 Knock House  2/1 - WIN £50.00 HA - Tipsters got it right today, but the Hendo horse was a NR so may have been different.

Bets 14/12/2013

Chelts 12.10 – Geraghty reckons Kentucky Hyden 7/4 is very very good, although Nicholls thinks Vicenzo Mio is very good. Hmm

Chelts 12.40 – Rematch between Le Bec, Shutthefrontdoor and Sam Winner, but it’s a four horse race so I’m not getting involved.

Chelts 1.15 – I like Eastlake 13/2. Clearly Hendo wants to win this, but can’t work out which one has the best chance.

Chelts 1.50 – On paper looks like a walk in the park for Kings Palace 11/8. The horse he beat by 18lenghts won a G2 here last month. Surely a LUMP?

Chelts 2.25 – It’s not Segal this week but Pricewise has gone with Color Squadron 6/1 and Salut Flo 14/1. Agree with both. Cantlow, Easter Meteor and Grandioso meet again and at the weights Grandioso 15/2 has a chance. If there are two long shots to target then Sew On Target 16/1 has to be that. He is only 4 pounds higher when Johns Spirit beat him 4.5 lengths whereas JS is 19pounds higher. Yes you have to take into account improvement but who is to say Sew on Target can’t improve a handful? Lastly with Hobbs going so well and Gauvain 40/1 returning to chasing his Chelts form is worth chancing for a place!

Chelts 3.00 – Everyone is saying The New One even Nicholls is suggesting it, so the only logical value bet is the straight forecast as nothing else is in this league, but even that is probably not worth it as imagine everyone will be on it.

Doncaster 3.15 – Harry The Viking 11/2 can bounce back over a track he likes and ground he needs

Chelts 3.35 – Another 4 horse race – no interest in betting as tactics are important as we simply can’t mind read.

Total Staked £1,402.50, Total Returned £2,205.86

£30.00 Kentucky Hyden  6/4 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Salut Flo (Segal) 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Eastlake  13/2 - WIN £225.00

£55.00 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £96.60

£48.75 e/w Accs  Accs - LOSE £0.00

£855.00 Kings Palace (Backed then Laid)  6/5 - WIN £1734.26

£15.00 e/w Gauvain  40/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Grandioso (Segal) 9/1 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Colour Squadron  6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sew on Target  16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£100.00 The New One  1/2 - WIN £150.00

£30.00 Harry The Viking  5/1 - LOSE £0.00

Worth the LUMP...

Bets 13/12/2013

I was lucky to make profits yesterday and I’ll explain how, but it went badly wrong for two reasons:

Firstly I listened to all the pundits about Module and went against the obvious class in Riverside. He had 12lb in hand over Module on ratings and guess what he beat him by 10lenghts... Thankfully put 5 times more on RS than module closer to the off.

Secondly, I looked at trainer form and results of trainers at tracks then tried to find reasons that horse would win. Stupid. Out of desperation I tried to find a better way of punting. No need. I watched the first race on RUK and the commentator suggested backing Rule of Thumb because of some race at Kempton April. Low and behold it was pretty much on the bridle 95% of the way round and won with ease. He gave his reasons and it reemphasises important of video study and knowing your form. So that helped me win a good amount

Anyway back to today, Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has picked two today:

2.10 Chelts - Prince of Pirates 7/1

3.15 Chelts - Abruzzi 16/1

I heart Chelts...

Bangor 12.10 – Ahyaknowyourself  3/1 was the best hurdler so will risk it.

Chelts 12.30 – Wonderful Charm has been impressive, but giving 8lb to Oscar Whiskey Evs might be hard especially as WC’s only go at Chelts was a bit disappointing.

Chelts 1.40 – Seriously tough this one. Impossible to know whether Skyfarmer is well treated. Will take a risk looking at RP ratings and fact not run at Chelts to say cross of list. Uhlan Bute looked to have a pretty hard race last week and not run at Chelts, so even though on a decent mark can’t back him. Zafranagar should not beat Canadian Diamond at the weights this time as 9lb better off. Lyvius who went chasing now back to hurdles won a Listed handicap of this rating last year so has to be there but I think might prefer soft ground. Dresden was in contention for most of the race last time over C&D and not sure whether the hill beat him or just got tired. The trainer quietly fancies him at a big price, but that day Maxi Chop was travelling much better than him and the form of that race is hot so MC over Dresden. I going Maxi Chop 7/2 and Canadian Diamond 12/1

Chelts 2.10 – All the pundits are once again on one horse. This time is Prince of Pirates. I will of course back it as is Pricewise, but I’m not convinced. Hendo says “He’s interesting” – can read jack all from that. Theatre Guide is the obvious one after the Henessey but had a tough race. Burton Port should not be handicapping at this weight. Pigeon Island has come into form again in class2 and we know he likes to win at Chelts, but step back up in grade surely too much to ask. Aimigayle was a decent 2^nd in the Byrne couple years ago, but never convinced about horses who switched between jumps disciplines. Duke of Lucca is not bad but held on form with Quentin Collonges and so it’s the Murphy Group handicap form we need to look at – Monbeg Dude, Knockara Beau and QC. I just get a slight niggling feeling that QC struggles up the hill so will go with KB 9/1 and MD 8/1

Chelts 2.40 – At the weights Any Currency 9/2 has a massive chance.

Chelts 3.15 – I don’t get why Sunnyhillboy is hurdling, unless its to lower his chase mark. Actually not sure that’s possible, but either way cant see him winning today. Thomas Crapper and Angles Hill both solid Chelts horses but can they step up in trip and class? Destroyer Deployed might be an interesting outsider here, but think the ground is too quick for him. So, we end up with that painful race where Return Springs booned my two Nicholls horses on the line last time out. I’m taking Southfield Theatre 4/1 to avenge defeat

Total Staked: £465.00, Total Returned: 372.41

£30.00 Ahyaknowyerself  100/3 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Oscar Whisky  5/6 - WIN £55.00

£80.00 Oscar Whisky  11/4 - WIN £176.00

£15.00 Captain Diamond  12/1 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 Maxi Chop  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Knockara Beau  9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Monbeg Dude  8/1 - WIN £123.00

£30.00 Any Currency  9/2 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Southfield Theatre  3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Garde La Victoire  7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£62.50 e/w Accs  Accs - PLACED £18.41

£20.00 Prince of Pirates (Segal) 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Abruzzi (Segal) 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accs (Segal) Accs - LOSE £0.00

Bets 12/12/2013

Huntingdon 12.30 – Zafaraban 15/2 runs with potential and then runs like he needs a kick on off on off. Very frustrating I imagine. A stronger handler onboard today and first time cheekpieces might do the trick today!

Huntingdon 1.00 – Be a shocker if Une Artiste 1/2 lost this. I knew not to back him last time out, but the weights all in his favour today

Huntingdon 1.30 – I feel a good day coming on for Hendo. Karazhan 7/1 looks a solid horse. Bags of speed and a solid jumper. Top weight might be tough, but he;’s entered in the Ladbrokes Hurdle later this year so must be well thought of

Huntingdon 2.00 – Pretty decent race today. At the weights I’d be shocked if Captain Chris pulled this out the bag. The obvious one is clearly Riverside Theatre on OR and weights but he has just been poor last few races. Problem is when fresh he has won all but once and has bags of speed and on a quick track like Huntingdon has no excuses today. But as I am doing so poorly at the moment I’ve bought into all the tipsters choice (including Tom Pricewise Segal) of Module 4/1. His form is best on offer currently and the stats say he is improving. I’ve used my free loyalty bet on the RT/Module F/c 12/1 so I don’t kick myself about following the herd as I think Riverside T who is 12lb better off than Module looks better and sure can find a few excuses for previous run with were not suitable conditions…

Huntingdon 2.30 – Time to be a bit mad. On form Balinderry 18/1 has nothing. On pedigree has a lot more and has had McCoy onboard previously so clearly well thought of. Trainer is in decent form so if chasing over longer trip is the answer then 18/1 might be silly.

Huntingdon 3.00 – Namibian! Blast from the past! What is he doing here? Had massive colic issues I think and although a class apart surely cant back him in different sphere after so long off! Instead the mare Truckers Darling 25/1 has a 7lb allowance and might be worth changing. Ran a decent race last time in a similar quality race last time and on RPR must have a better chance than this with the pull.

Hong Kong 2013

Hong Kong Vase – Looks like you want to avoid high draws on this, and by far the best in The Fugue 6/5.

Hong Kong Sprint – Lord Kanaloa looks the bees knees. There is a lot of emphasise on the draw but I’m willing to ignore at my own peril. Lucky Nine will take advantage if draw is that mega.

Honk Kong Mile – Sky Lantern for the emotion

Hong Kong Cup – Nothing random - Military Attack

Bets 07/12/2013

Out all weekend so no major punting. Pricewise Segal has gone for:

2.05 Aintree - Rose of The Moon 33/1, Storm Survivor 25/1
2.25 Sandown - Milord 12/1, Whitby Jack 16/1
3.15 Aintree - Stormin Exit 16/1

No time to look at anything else which is a shame as card looks pretty fun!

Bets 05/12/2013

I've had a poor couple of months and a couple of wipeout days so have taken punting slowly. Jsut a few today.

2.40 Wincanton – Roman Flight 2/1

3.40 Meydan - Skycruiser 6/1

4.15 Meydan – Innocuous 3/1, Hajoum 20/1

Bets 28/11/2013

I’m trying a new tipster today as apparently they nail this festival and they have gone:

Union Du Chenet 18/1, La Reve 12/1, Harry Hunt 10/1, Irish Saint 8/1, Red Devil Lads 11/4. They can have half bets!

This is not and easy day and maybe just one punt in the big race:

Newbury 3.15 – I was all set to back Puffin Billy or Chatterbox, but I’m going to be controversial with myself and back Get Back In Line 5/1. Although far less experienced, he comes in on a very low mark. Using Special Catch as a form line who was heavily fancied at weekend this form is decent. I’ve hit rock bottom backing top weights in handicaps and I might regret not backing one of the top two, but worth a shot

Might be worth a small Nicholls acc too.

Away from Newbury Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up two for the Welsh National:

28/12/13 Welsh National – Goonyella 12/1, Amigo 40/1

Bets 24/11/2013

Yesterday was all set to be a good day when Ruler of All came close to landing a 16/1. Annie Power was decent and the 25/1 I took about Cue Card for GC looks decent. Except for that, it was a disaster. I’m not looking at the cards today except for Segal’s tips:

Navan 2.25 – Pass The Hat 9/1, Mad Brian 13/2

Bets 23/11/2013

Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up 4 today:

1.50 Haydock – Special Catch 14/1

2.25 Haydock – Two Rockers 9/1

3.00 Haydock – Dynaste 8/1

3.45 Haydock – Relax

I'm going to be bowling around in Fabric tonight so getting this out of the way:

12.10 Haydock – Ruler of All 16/1 has best form on show and drifted down the handicap mark, so not sure why so big

12.45 Haydock – Runswick Royal 6/1 that beaten Rolling Star comfortably before and Far West has to concede a fair bit of weight so take a chance with RR

1.00 Ascot – Civil Disobedience 9/1

1.15 Haydock – Our Island 8/1 in first time blinkers has best form on show

1.50 Haydock – Clondaw Kaempfer 9/2 beat The Liquidator few races back and was travelling pretty well against Taquin DeSeuil. A long time off but a decent handicap mark I reckon.

2.40 Ascot – Zarakander will probably struggle to give this much weight to Annie Power 4/5

3.00 Haydock – Bob Bob Bob’s Worth 5/2 On all known form he wins and wins well. I’ve jumped ship from Long Run. Cost me thousands in broken accs now.

3.15 Ascot – Lancetto 11/2 is weighted to reverse tables with Drumshambo

Bets 22/11/2013

Ascot 2.40 – I was looking at Greywell Boy who has very strong C&D handicap form. Is likely to improve for that too. BUT, it’s hard to get away from Double Ross 2/1 who has the best form line. At a glance finished 6 lengths behind Johns Spirit from 6lb out the handicap which puts Double Ross on a VERY GOOD mark. And then when you tie in Balder Success to the equation it rings Banker.

Bets 21/11/2013

Graphic was rats yesterday. Was very keen early on I assumed it was game over before went round the bend.

Chepstow 1.40 – Tigresse Bleue 4/6 is short but watch his last race. It was a stroll so won’t have used much energy. Banker of day

Chepstow 2.15 – Radmores Revenge 7/2 takes a drop in class on seasonal start. Has run well fresh last couple years and won at the course but just hope age not caught up with him and the young ones like Alborz don’t capitalise.

Mark Rasen 2.40 – If Compton Blue takes to soft ground could be a danger, but I won’t take the risk and instead Stick with Willy Fox 6/4 who was not penalised for an easy C&D win last time.

Meydan 3.20 – Hazaz 3/1 an easy C&D winner last week

Meydan 3.55 – Haatheq 1/2 ought to walk this. If Busker hit top form I would be worried at a big price.

Meydan 4.30 – If a fortnight ago was not a fluke then Muhtaram 3/1 is one a low low low handicap mark!

Meydan 5.05 – If Murbeh ran a bit better last week I’d be all over him. He didn’t so even though has the best form have to choose between Innocuous and Sand Stamp. Might got tricast or forecast?

Meydan 5.40 – The El Mansour race formline was a slow time but the best of those at the weights is now Representation 5/1. If Mizbah is fit he will outrun 14/1

Bets 20/11/2013

I really enjoyed the Open Meeting this year. Segal landed me some wads and I landed some really very good e/w bets. On Sunday if Pipe didn’t send out any runners I would have had a 9/2 (Saulisto Sunrise) winner, Evs (Sea Lord) winner, 10/1 (Sametegal) winner and 7/2 (Carningli) winner!!! The 560/1 quad in the end paid nothing as the Sea Lord race was only 4 runners L Either way I know I’m in the right area so looking forward to rest of jumps season. Also a few decent formlines to take away from it.

1.10 Hexham – I like Quinn’s horses who go from flat to jumps and arguably Forced Family Fun 13/8 was the best on flat. Quinns horses are running very well and he has a solid 42% course record

6.30 Kempton – Graphic 7/4 finally steps up in class and OR says he wins. C&D time says he wins too. 

Bets 17/11/2013

Hit some decent e/w accs yesterday including Colour Squadron, John’s Spirit, RIH, Shutthefrontdoor, Bradley, Southfield Theatre and Cross Kennon. If Segal would have hit the double I’d be oh so happy, but still am. The man is on fire, as were the bookies yesterday. Tom Pricewise Segal's picks make total sense to me and were on the shortlist...

Chelts 3.15 – Redera 40/1, Flaxen Flare 12/1

Another good card today to work through!

1.00 Chelts – Hobbs lot ran well yesterday and the form of Sausalito Sunrise’s 5/1 last race has not been bad at handicap level (using Aaim To Prosper as a marker). L Miller clearly a danger

1.35 Chelts – Sea Lord 5/4 is rates 20lb more than Lac Fontana who was one of my disappointments last year.

2.10 Chelts – My Bro S too much weight, The Cockney M doesn’t look good enough. Raya Star was arguably a better hurdler than Dodging Bullet but is 2 years more his senior and the reason I can’t back him was his only run at Chelts was pretty poor. So I’m left with Dodgin Bullets 7/4 and Ted Veale 11/4. Hmm which way to go?

2.15 Punchestown – Clearly not taking on Hurricane Fly, but can’t back him at 1/7. When Jezki was still in this he was 5/6 and I was happy to lump, but missed the boat.

2.40 Chelts – Sire De Grugy 5/6 can concede weight all round and win again.

3.15 Chelts – I just saw Jezki in the formline and saw it was Flaxen Flare 12/1 who walked a race in the festival. Flaxen Flare is in a formline with Redera 40/1 who looked a little unlucky in the VOB a couple years ago looks a decent price. Clearly Cash And Go goes well fresh and is on same mark as last year when a decent second. Henderson’s lot aren’t going that well so it’s a tough ask to back when other trainers are in blinding form. Court Minstrel romped home in the Scottish Champion Hurdle but again stable not in good form and up 11lb since then. The horse behind him that day was Sametegal 10/1 who won last time out over C&D and Nicholls hurdlers seem to be going pretty well!

3.50 Chelts – Carningli 9/2 had form franked by The Govaness who won the Listed NHF race here yesterday. And the form was from over C&D so has be to backed. Clearly a number of dangers with shed load of unexposed horses with other good form, but will stick with this one.

Fergal O'Brien has Dark Energy (1.00), Arthur McBride and Gunner Fifteen (3.50) running today.

Bets 16/11/2013

An 8/1 Segal winner and a 12/1 forecast = a good day yesterday. Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for only a few today:

Chelt 1.35 – Alvarado 20/1 and Bradley 8/1

Chelts 3.00 – Southfield Theatre 8/1

Uber competitive today, but just focus on course specialists…

12.40 Chelts – Royal Irish Hussar destroyed a listed field last time out, but Nicholls has beaten many a Hendo favourite in this race and Art Mauresque 9/2 can do the same today. Hard to assess the form but the prize money is an indication.

1.00 Punchestown – Difficult to avoid wandering towards Champagne Fever 8/13. Ignore Punchestown Festival as had a hard race at Chelts and can win on chase debut. Has the class.

1.15 Chelts – Tough. On paper Bobs Ford close to AFC, but actually he was thumped and similar story for African Gold. I’ll go for Shutthfrontdoor 11/4 who I’ve backed a few times and also ran a blinder at the festival and the time of that race was about 40secs quicker although ground was much softer for AG.

1.50 Chelts – Not convinced Goulnes is well handicapped. I never seem to get Pipe horses right. Rather annoying. Bradley 8/1 reopposes with Tour Des Champs with 2lb less and the extra distance will suit the former. The only other one who worries me might be Burton Port as lets not forget he was second in the Henessey Gold Cup on only 1lb lower couple years back. If Bradley does win then then form is good and I expect Tour Des Champs to follow home. The forecast pays 40/1 both ways.

2.30 Chelts – A number of AP bets already which is daft, but too late to change! Ballynagour 12/1 (one of the festival banker flops, but potentially still well in and might be better for rest), John’s Spirit 12/1(Easy C&D winner last time) and Colour Squadron 12/1 (had so much potential but had a poor rest of season, but as a result is on a low mark). Everyone is banging on about Chamption Court and I can’t back another now at the top of the market can I? Argh. The only other one I think is a mental price using John’s Spirit as a marker is Woolcombe Folly 40/1. Would have been much closer the JS is didn’t blunder close to home and not meets JS 10lb better off.

3.00 Chelts – Sliver Eagles form was franked by Thomas Crapper but this a Listed race. Impossible for me to know how well handicapped Southfield Theatre is, but trust in Segal. Salubrious romped the Martin Pipe at  the festival but Nicholls reckons will struggle at top weight. If Recession Proof 16/1 stays the trip he could be very very well handicapped and Cross Kennon 16/1 will no doubt have been primed for another crack in this. His prep this year was much better than his prep last year!

Away from the jumps a double on Hoodna 5/1 (3.10 Lingfield) and Nice Life Evs (7.50 Wolves)

Bets 15/11/2013

Nice – on a roll again. 3/3, although following the RP tips is bringing me back down. I was not expecting Segal to have a couple of bets today so I missed his prices already but he has picked:

1.35 Chelts – Anay Turge 12/1

2.40 Chelts – Whisper 10/1

My punts...

Chelts 1.05 – Be mad not to stick with Standing Ovation 6/4. Bolted up against a decent field so clearly still ahead of handicapper. Guess I’d worry that it is Chelts though

Chelts 1.35 – Be mad not to back Renard 6/1 at this weight, in this class over this distance on this track. I can see why Segal has backed Anay Turge as he is 8lb better off with Eastlake who must also have a chance in this but can’t assess the form

Chelts 2.05 – Taquin Du Seuil has to give 5 pounds to a an Aintree Hurdle winner and one of the boys Oscar Whiskey 4/6. We know there are no problems at Chelts and goes well fresh.

Chelts 2.40 – Top Gamble 7/2 is being hyped up. Walked his hurdles debut. Using some formlines Decimus is interesting, but will stick to Top Gamble. Once again can see why Segal has picked Whisper. Hendo reckons this horse is closely match to Oscar Whiskey. Quite frankly though this is a tough race and I’m like many are hoping for an aptly names winner!

Chelts 3.15 – Diamond Harry in a cross country? Surely not. Chicago no form at Chelts. There should only be 2 in this. Uncle Junior who has won this race twice and runs very well fresh and Balthazar King who was thumped by 11 lengths in this last year. Honestly don’t know which way to turn as BZ in in blinding form but UJ always does well in this race. UJ/BZ fc pays 18/1 and 12/1 vice versa!

Bets 14/11/2013

Jumps are hotting up, but am still just in first gear until it really kicks off:

2.25 Clonmel – Arvika Ligeonniere 10/11 wins at the weights

Racingpost Tips:

1.40 Taunton – Don Pooleoni

2.50 Southwell – Mataajir

3.20 Southwell – Monsieur Jamie

3.25 Clonmel – A Fine Young Man

Also worth noting handicap hurdles at taunton produce a very very good profit as do Nicholls Runners at Taunton and Henderson runners at Ludlow

Bets 13/11/2013

A few punts:

2.10 Exeter – Smad Place into an Acc

1.30 Lingfield – Sir Robert Cheval

RP Tips:

2.50 Bangor – Bourne

3.10 Exeter – Horizontal Speed

Desai Jnr tips:

Bourne, Joanne One, Valdez

Bets 09/11/2013

This is one of the worst weekends of racing in the year(in my opinion) as we have the flat finale.

Tom Pricewise Segal has plumped for four picks today:

Donny 2.25 – Mass Rally 12/1

Wincanton 2.40 – De La Bach 10/1

Donny 3.35 – Rhombus 12/1, Forgotten Hero 16/1

Half stakes today:

Donny 12.05 – Resolute 2/1 has well last time out enough to suggest can win a contest like this.

Donny 12.40 – Penny Drops 4/7 can bag a Double Donny maiden for Haggas

Donny 1.15 – Donny Rover 14/1 might just be a couple pounds ahead the handicapper based on last run. He ran pretty in penultimate race here too when looked a bit unlucky.

Donny 1.50 – A number of solid C&D winners. Tariflette 12/1 loves to win at beginning and end of season, Lilac Lace 20/1 bolted up last time in similar conditions and Favourite Treat 8/1 is most unexposed

Donny 2.25 – Eton Rifles 11/2 will be all the better for run last time. Big chance

Donny 3.00 – Cocktail Queen 8/1 will love the ground and will run above mark. Agent Allison 20/1 will love the ground so interesting one.

Donny 3.35 – Highland Castle 14/1 has good current form and also over C&D and Swnymor 25/1 still looks on a decent flat mark.

Sandown 1.20 – Grandeout 4/9 has had Yogi working his jumping and was far better than Hinterland over hurdles.

Sandown 1.55 – Ought to be a formality for Kentucky Hyden 4/9 dropping down from Listed class

Sandown 2.30 – Kapga De Cerisy 4/1  has decent C&D form and also October is Williams month

Will have to be some form of Nicholls Wincanton acc here today too, but otherwise also:

Wincanton 2.05 – Everything say back Far West but am drawn to Cotton Mill 4/1 (probably because of the MTOY handicap form)

Wincanton 2.40 – Poungach 13/2 looks above his mark, but this competitive…

Naas 12.50 – I think this is mad, but Art of Payroll 8/1 beat Easter Hunt who is apaz a decent sort.

Bets 08/11/2013

Meydan did not go the way I was hoping but a 5/1 winner was enough to stop a massacre.

There’s some interest in a John Ferguson clean sweep today: Purple Bay, Curzon Line, Population, Paddy Mulligan and Ronnie Lawson!

Mussel’b 12.30 – Purple Bay 4/11 ought to win

Mussel’b 2.35 – Population 9/4 has some very good form for the level (God’s Own, La Reve both won and of course The New One and MTOY) and on a workable mark based on the former pair.

Southwell 3.45 – Ferguson may well land a five timer. Imagine McCoy’s ride Forthefunofit 7/4 will be backed too but Mr Gollings always has a couple of decent soft ground performers and Powerstown Dreams 12/1 might be interesting?

Bets 07/11/2013

Only 3/10 winners yesterday but one was an 8/1 so got out of jail.

Lingfield 1.20 – Proper Desai Jnr betting here. Trainer is on a hot streak. Be A Rebel 80/1 on Betfair.

Thurles 1.25 – Real Dubh 11/8 really ought to take advantage of the weights here.

MEYDAN IS BACK!! It will be hard for a few weeks as horses are coming back from a break but I don’t want to fall behind Meydan form….

Meydan 2.30 – Tarwabi 5/6 should have class to win

Meydan 3.05 – Take a chance with Ouzinkie 20/1 who is technically 17lb lower (with claimer) than in similar race last year

Meydan 3.40 – Innocuous 9/2 and Desert of Dreams 9/2 have chances on best form

Meydan 4.15 – Got four on my shortlist. Alnashmy and Kaiss meet again and at the weights and prices have to side with Alnashmy 20/1. I really can’t decide between Busker 4/1 and Jawhar 6/1 though. The latter because drops back in trip and class and the former still looks like has improvement in him

Meydan 4.50 – The market is right with this. Trying to decipher between Ukrainian, Moonlight Cloud and Interpret. At the weights you’d hope Ukrainian beats Moonlight Cloud this time. Although it’s a different surface Ukrainian beat Interpret so would go with Ukrainian 5/1

Meydan 5.25 – Again four on the shortlist (Karma Chameleon, Graymalkin, Mutayaser, Earth Tour). Earth Tour 16/1 is the bigger price and just don’t know how well handicapped he is. A few nuggets suggests he is. Karma 3/1 has no excuse not to be up there.

Bets 06/11/2013

Backing top class horses shouldering stones to class horses is not a good idea. I know that, but I still went against myself. Good thing was I knew Somersby’s weights was tempting and Manyriverstocross just prevailed.

I’m going all out today with lower stakes so can start remembering all the tricks of the trade with jumps:

Chepstow 1.10 – Wing Mira 8/1 of interest as stable in top nick, but the best form has to be Dazinski 4/1. That Worcester form is full of winners. Has run well on soft before.

Warwick 1.20 – I questioned Forest Walker’s Evs credentials last time and he bolted up. Still ahead of mark on that race

Chepstow 1.40 – Regal Diamond Evs – Bowen loves him. Bumper form pretty decent

Notts 2.00 – Shimba Hills 8/1 has found a good opportunity to take advantage of experience and conditions to suit

Chepstow 2.10 – Un Bon P’Tit Gars has decent hurdling form – better than most in line up. Ran very well first time out last year. Guess the worry is ran badly on debut here on soft ground

Warwick 2.20 – Balder Success 4/7

Chepstow 2.40 – Minellahalfcentury 3/1 looks ahead of his mark

               

Chepstow 3.15 – Brave Buck 6/4 looks ahead of his mark

Chepstow 3.50 – Peut Etre Sivola 5/1 worth chancing. If bounces back to form is on a mark has won a C3 with.

Chepstow 4.20 – Old Magic 11/2 to repeat last year’s win

Bets 05/11/2013

Exeter 1.50 – Sea Wall ran a pretty decent race before being hampered last time out. 12/1 is a touch big purely on Nicholls record here. McCoy will be backed all day in all of his races and Flemenson (imagine related to Flemenstar) and Champagne West (imagine related to Champagne Fever) are probably worthily towards top of market.

Exeter 2.20 – Incredible that Nicholls and Hobbs have won the last 9/10 runnings of this. Nicholls reckons Doctor Harper is the one to beat, but the market says it’s Broomfield. The fav has won this 10/11 times too so will follow the market and Nicholls.

Exeter 2.50 – Kumbeshwar is running from outside the handicap and the only one I’d rule out without a concern. We saw Grands Crus struggle to concede weight yesterday, but Cue Card 11/10 could have conceded two dozen pounds last year and still won. Somersby has been dropped 6 pounds which I think is a bit mental but is better right handed so just about rule him out. Not seen enough from Fago to back him at this level and might want to protect mark for PP GC. Module looks decent but so does Williams Wishes. Tom Segal has tipped him up at 5/1 today, but I going to stick with Cue Card. He has to be the one to beat even with this massive amount of weight

Maisons – Laffitte 2.55 – Catcall Evs

Exeter 3.20 – Purely through formlines of the betfair hurdle Dark Lover wins this. But now we are over fences and Balder Success rated 145 would have beaten Dark Lover. At the weights therefore Claret Cloak beats Dark Lover. I also think Manyriverstocross 4/1 was a better hurdler than Claret Cloak and with the 5lb reckon worth at chance

Bets 04/11/2013

When Segal lands a 1-2 in a competivite 17 runner race you just have to shout oldboy. What a hero. If only I woke up and took the 14/1 on offer and backed the forecast :)

I think a few people will be tapping this today:

2.40 Kempton - Grand Crus 9/4. Back to hurdles in a handicap. Hmm. I thought this might be a red herring, but he was spanking handicaps over hurdles, albeit a dozen lbs less. When he beat Silvi C over fences at Kempton so many dreamt of bigger things...Either way if back to form, goes at Kemptom. still competitive at this weight in this class.

3.10 Kempton - Hadrians Approach 13/8 at the weights ought to win

Melbourne Cup - Segal has gone Royal Empire 20/1. I've got Mount Athos 16/1 and Verema 20/1 AP.

Bets 03/11/2013

Yesterday was good but Long Run really burnt me. I have to stop backing him. I’m also disgusted that I didn’t back Reve De Sivola 36/1. Was on my tracker and I was too bloody hungover to remember to check it. Stupid boy. For the record Grand Crus, Cue Card and Grandeout all have current entries for midweek!!!

Leopardstown 12.55 – I’ve backed Streetcar to Stars 100/1 for the Derby so keen to see how he gets on today.

Huntingdon 1.15 – Smad Place 4/9 wins easily of translates form to fences

Carlisle 2.40 – Tap Night 11/8 wins at the weights if fit for first appearance

Cork 2.50 – Felix Yonger 4/5 has some very good form in the book

Cork 3.25 – Tom Pricewise Segal has picked two in this. Swordfish and Unoccupied both 10/1

Bets 02/11/2013

Wow. Woken up with one of those don’t bet hangovers, but I’ll try.

Pricewise has gone for:

Ascot 2.45 – Dildar

Ascot 3.20 – Merry King, Theres No Panic

Wetherby 3.35 – Cape Tribulation

My punts:

Ascot 2.45 – Gibb River 10/1

Ascot 3.20 – Opening Batsman 9/1

Wetherby 1.50 – If the BHA are right at the weights Cockney Sparrow 3/1 wins

Wetherby 3.00 – Tidal Bay 2/1

Wetherby 3.35 – My boy Long Run 6/5

Down Royal 3.05 – Rolling Aces 13/8

Newmarket 2.55 – Nabucco 11/10

Breeders Cup Turf – The Fugue 2/1

Bets 01/11/2013

Last two days have not been good. Only small stakes lost yesterday. Need some pennies for Breeders tonight! New month, new luck?

Wetherby 12.40 – Oscar Rock 8/15 thumped a horse I lost a lot on in Vago Collonges. A lot of hype for this on

Newmarket 1.30 – Squire Obsaldeston 2/1 is tempting on this mark. It may be he is better on AW but looking at the form of that Newbury race back in April this mark looks lenient

Saint Cloud 1.50 – Ectot looks smart 10/11

Newmarket 2.00 – A lot to like about Expect 5/1. The soft form with Al Thakira is solid

Uttoexter 2.20 – Depends who takes best to fences, but Raya Star Evs was the best hurdler, so fingers crossed

Down Royal 2.35 – JEZKI 4/9. BANKING BANKER. Even at the weights is 10lb odd clear.

Wetherby 2.45 – Pipe likes Ainsi Fideles 2/1. Just hope Scudamore don’t get stuck in traffic from Uttoxeter!

Newmarket 3.05 – Tweed 10/3 didn’t look green on debut and if possesses ability of Harris, bosh.

Down Royal 3.10 – Rye Martini 15/8 destroyed some very good horses last time out and if takes to fences has to be the one to beat

Uttoexter 3.30 – Marie Des Anges 15/8 was one I followed last year. Can’t work out why Forest Walker is being backed ahead of him. Will soon find out!

Bets 31/10/2013

Yesterday was bad, bad and bad.

Just a real quick go at this today. No big punts like yesterday!!!

Stratford 1.10 - Easy Beesy 1/3
Stratford 2.10 - Hayjack 5/2
Lingfield 2.20 - Horsted Keynes Evs
Stratford 2.40 - Snake Eyes 4/9
Lingfield 3.20 - Tempest Fugit 5/1
Sedgefield 3.30 - Talkin Thomas 7/2

Bets 30/10/2013

Orion Love was pants, and a bit frustrated with E Lady. But Firecruise and Tarquin pulled home so easy enough profit.

Notts 2.00 - Amulet 7/4. Saw this one yesterday afternoon and had it down as a banker. Looks wads ahead of handicapper. 6/4 still available but imagine won't last long. Has been tipped up all over the place today too so fingers crossed.

Kempton 6.40 - Never To Be 7/4. Again backed yesterday after watching a very easy handicap win over C&D last time. Just have to hope does not get stuck in traffic! New Row was the biggest danger I saw so had a small insurebet saver.

Bets 29/10/2013

Saint Cloud 1.50 – Using Treve as a formline Orion Love 10/1 beats Galvaun and Sparking Beam with Tasaday as a marker. So why Orion Love is 10/1 and those two are 2/1 and 3/1 respectively I’m not sure. Orion Love is in first time blinkers too so must be each way value with 3 places in an 8 horse race..

Yarmouth 2.40 – Firecruise 5/2 looks an obvious choice here, but another who looks well ahead of the handicapper in these conditions is Evacusafe Lady 8/1. I can’t see passed these two and took prices last night. The r f/c was 18/1 earlier. Looks like everyone has the same idea

Ffos Las 3.30 – Tarquin De Seuil 4/11 has only one danger. The fences on chase debut.

Bets 28/10/2013

Gutted missed all the racing at the weekend but glad Kingston Hill bolted up as the 40’s I took on betfair for the Derby are now looking immense. Australia still looks the one to beat at this point though. Triple Crown?

Naas 1.45 – Oscar’s Well 9/4 gets 7lb from Realt Mor as does Alderwood. With no McCoy on Alderwood I have to go with Oscars Well

Naas 2.15 – If Rule The World 13/8 is fit he wins. Simple. Morris horses not running well so you’d be cautious. 

Bets 25/10/2013

Flying out for the weekend. Had a quick look at Donny and gone for Desert Society 4/1 and Ty Gwr 7/4

Bets 23/10/2013

Newmarket 3.40 – Sudden Wonder 11/10 form form form – Pinzola

Newmarket 4.10 – If I back Sudden Wonder because of Pinzola then I’d be daft not to back Mujaz. Problem is a load of people have been looking forward to see Touch The Sky. Not sure if that is the same as they think is a decent horse though. Hmm

Kempton 5.50 – Pretty Bubbles 7/2

Kempton 6.50 – De Kock @ Kempton? Moonafraid 8/11? Heard a rumour about Steve Rogers though 12/1

Kempton 7.20 – Again only a whisper Ian’s Memory 11/8

Bets 22/10/2013

Yarmouth 3.20 – If John Best was in form I would be lumping on Berrahri 11/1 here. Rewind two races on soft ground where is runs behind Kingston Hill. This mark is lenient. I’ve backed him on betfair too as guaranteed to be hammered in the betting so a free back to lay bet. Iseemist can’t be out of it based on old form against Bedale Memory and Ventura Mist

Yarmouth 3.50 – Green Howard 9/2 has some solid form to name at the moment and ignore last as had a daft draw and is not a hold up horse at the back. Jason will put that right. I’m just wondered whether Gatepost is the better bet or not though.

Yarmouth 4.20 – NAP goes to Stomachion 6/4 who looks miles ahead of the handicapper

Bets 21/10/2013

Nice easy Trixie yesterday.

2.50 Plumpton - Old Boy Doheny Bar 9/2 can prove C&D form is crucial
3.20 Plumpton - I'vebeenthinking 4/1 can defy penalty
4.20 Plumpton - Ballyculla 3/1 looks on a decent mark
4.50 Plumpton - Rocky Elsom 16/1

Bets 20/10/2013

Olympic Glory and the Farhh/CDA forecast really bailed me out yesterday. Not what I expected to happen. If I would have reproduced the flat stakes over jumps I’d be laughing. But I didn’t. Anyhow just a few quick ones today:

Kempton 2.45 – Dodging Bullet. Bets Hurdler by far. Hopefully can reproduce over fences

Kempton 3.20 – Sea Lord 5/6 miles ahead of everything else

Kempton 3.50 – Segal has picked Surburban Bay 7/2

Kempton 4.25 – The New One 4/6 – I’m still gutted I didn’t cash in at Chelts. Gutted

There’s a Nicholls Acc on the cards too.

Naas 3.15 – Segal has picked Uleavemebreathless 10/1

Cork 3.55 – Segal has picked Runwiththewind

Bets 19/10/2013 - Champions Day 2013

I’ve had a pretty poor run up to today, but hopefully all change today and all the big fancies bolt up. Segal does not think that will happen but that’s his job. His picks today are:

Ascot 1.45 – Pale Mimosa 20/1

Ascot 2.20 – Jack Dexter 6/1, Cape Approval 20/1

Ascot 4.05 – Morandi 14/1

Ascot 4.45 – Intrigo 25/1

I can see the rationale is some of Segal’s choices today but I think the outcomes might be more obvious like they have been in previous years. Class will prevail. Guess have to watch out for Johnny M too…

Ascot 1.45 – Harris Tweed is top rated and Azeemah and Estimate both finished a neck ahead of Simenon (as a marker). However, Estimate 9/4 has been aimed for this, she is a Ascot specialist, her form at the distance is the best and I backed her Ante Post but I’m going in again. A G1 winner in a G3 race with no penalty

Ascot 2.20 – I somewhat understand the rationale behind Jack Dexter, but the races he has won he should have won, the ones he was not top rated he hasn’t and again today he comes up against last years winner Maarek 3/1 who is in blinding form and 4lb clear on BHA ratings. I saw the race he lost against Cape of Approval. That wasn’t him and he has conditions to a tee today. The price may drift a bit as Segal has tipped up Dexter.

Ascot 2.55 – Dalkala is class yes and was a nice winner for me in the Middleton but not sure about trip, and with a 3 year allowance Talent 7/2 surely has the best form in the race.

Ascot 3.30 – No Frankel, No Excelebration. Hardest race at Ascot to sort out so far. 3year old allowance ought to be the key here. Maxios on paper looks very strong, however Dettori was warned by Hughes about going downhill with Olympic Glory and Hughesy was right. Back to a flat track and Olympic glory was pretty close to Dawn Approach in the Coventry. No idea what has happened to Dawn Approach. At the prices it has to be Olympic Glory 5/1 but a bit of a cop out in that if Dawn Approach is back to best will be hard to beat. I wonder whether the ground will go against him though and play to OG. Might forecast DA/OG @13.27 as saver

Ascot 4.05 – 3 year old don’t have a good record in this. I’m a huge fan of Farhh and the Lockinage was easy money, but there was no CDA in that race. CDA 6/4 has won this race and has got closer to Frankel than any other horse and these conditions are perfect for him. Ruler of the World has been well backed and it’s interesting Ladbrokes are the shortest on him. You know what that means…but, it’s generally only true when the fave. Argh, Farhh, hmm. Might forecast FAR/CDA @8.13 as saver

Ascot. 4.45 – 3 I like in this. Boots and Spurs in good form and goes on soft. Jack’s Revenge goes well at Ascot and best form in race by far. Fils Anges as have backed so many times now won’t give up today.

On to Chelts. I need to get back into this. Am excited. Will back more than I should so can relearn the game!

Chelts 2.00 – Aerial 6/1 was a very good chaser and based on that stick him up in this sphere.

Chelts 2.35 – Finger on the Pulse 25/1 gets a sweet 10lb allowance. Vulcanite 6/1 looks on a decent mark and got a hugely hampered last time out. Missed out on two big Vino Griego 16/1 wins last year. Tempting.

Chelts 3.10 – Sametegal 9/4 clear on ratings and Nicholls reckons best chance today.

Chelts 3.45 – Sire Collonges 16/1 on a decent mark, Balthazar King 6/1 is in very good nick, Life of Lusso 33/1 a nice outsider and Conncetivity 20/1 well handicapped on hurdles form

Chelts 5.00 – Balder Success has a penalty so am with Dark Lover 2/1

Chelts 5.35 – Trickaway 16/1

Bets 18/10/2013

Chelts 2.10 – Yes yes yes the jumps are nearly back. There are some very good novice hurdlers here. Pure Science 3/1 was one for the notebook last year and the market also seems to think has a chance despite having no experience. I’ll dosh out my first AP bet on the Neptune Chelts 2014 40/1.

Chelts 2.40 – On paper Third Intention wins by 7 lenghts. Desai Jnr is not having it and is convincing me Rebel Fitz is the one to be one. I’ve seen his last few races and he has won them so so easily. However he has beaten noting of note. Third Intention on the other hand running with the likes of Captain Conan and Dynaste. And impossible to write Tarquin De Seuil off. A horse who finished very close to My Tent or Yours. I’m not touching a 3 horse race. And won’t cry if don’t double money on RF.

Haydock 2.55 – I’m sticking with these Nurseries. I love them even though are hard to solve. I’m keen on the favourite here – Meadway 4/1. I have him rated at least 8lb higher than the BHA.

Chelts 3.15 – I tried to stay away. I could not find a big price. The market looks right with Captain Sunshine 4/1 and Viking Blond 8/1 at top of it.

Chelts 4.25 – Lac Fontana 4/6 is a couple leagues above anything in this

Haydock 5.10 – Modern Tutor 10/3 might get done by a 3yr old but willing to take the risk that Moore will win the race. Strong form

Caulfield Cup – Segal has gone for Dandino 9/1. Quest for Peace 33/1 worth a nibble I reckon.

Bets 17/10/2013

Nearly a clean sweep yesterday. Had Lucky Landing and Grandad's Horse on my shortlist so annoyed for scrapping them!

Wincanton 4.20 - Moon Prince 9/4
Uttoxeter 5.00 - Sliver Dragon 11/4

Bets 16/10/2013

Lingfield 2.00 - Outback 15/8
Lingfield 2.30 - Black S 6/4
Notts 3.45 - Proximate 11/8

Bets 13/10/2013

Ladbrokes were once again vindicated for avoiding War Command. They are rarely wrong with the Ballydole faves in top races. Was the only thing that once again saved me from embarassement. I lost the plot yesterday and lumped £600 on Accs. All lost! No idea how Scatter Dice did that either.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has picked 3 today. Missed the prices again though!

Curragh 4.40 – Time For Action 14/1, Montefeltro 12/1

Limerick 4.50 – Spring Heeled 9/1

A few punts today:

Ffos Las 2.15 – Midnight Minx 2/1

Pardubice 3.30 – Orphee Des Blins 7/4

Goodwood 3.40 – Nordic Quest 10/3

Curragh 4.05 – Sir Walter Scott

Curragh 4.40 – Victory Song 25/1, Celestial Prospect 25/1

Goodwood 5.15 – Empress Ade and Squire Osb both look really well handicapped and Thomas Hob was unlucky to bump into Battalion last time. The tricast pays around 60/1

Ffos Las 5.30 – Solstice Son 6/4

Goodwood 5.45 – Sir Mike 12/1

Bets 12/10/2013

City Zen just prevailed yesterday and as my big bet was happy. Glad I was not mislead by the market. Graphic and Lahaag meant I was in the blue but generally all my other single bets were useless!

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for 3 today and all of them are on my shortlist!

Newmarket 2.05 – Trumpet Major 14/1

York 3.30 – Baccarat 8/1

Newmarket 3.50 – Tiger Cliff 12/1

Going to have to jump on the jumps bandwagon today after watching the boys land a heap of favs:

Chepstow 2.25 – Keltus

Chepstow 3.00 – Killala Quay

Okay back to the flat…

York 1.50 – Seek Again 4/1 form stands out by a long way and King George River 10/1 must be a threat with strong C&D form

Newmarket 2.05 – 3year olds have dominated this race. There’s only 1 today. 1 that cost me a nice double. Darwin 10/3. The Gordon Lord Byron form stands out too and so many of O’Briens horses are victorious in headgear, BUT I just think at the price and the ground you can’t back him with confidence and on collateral form Ansgar beats him and is 16/1. Also it’s tricky when you see Amarillo 11/1 who has put Libranno in his place and got somewhat close to Moonlight Cloud. Hmm

York 2.20 – First Mohican 6/1 must be one of the big bets of the day. Back in handicap company form is really strong

Newmarket 2.35 – Great White Eagle 5/2 looks decent but Supplicant 9/1 and interesting outsider

Newmarket 3.10 – I’m a big Outstrip fan, and although the War Command 11/8 form has not really worked out Ladbrokes are telling me not to get on the wrong side of War Command

York 3.30 – Baccarat 6/1 a decent horse. Ancient Cross and Hallelujah might be of interest with strong course form and current form

Newmarket 3.50 – Tiger Cliff, Tiger Cliff, Tiger Cliff, despite the tough draw. On paper L Miller beats him at the weights but I think Tiger is still improving and will further with step up. Could back loads of these but the only other one I will back is Earth Amber who looks on an okay mark and has a decent draw

Newmarket 4.25 – All form points to Lightening Thunder Evs

Newmarket 5.25 – Could be a decent day for O’Brien. Alfonso De Sousa looks big 10/1 and Ladbrokes again think so too

Bets 11/10/2013

A few days away in the sun will hopefully have revived my selection process as last Saturday was a travesty. Like many can’t believe didn’t back Treve in the Arc. I got my money back on Orfevre (e/w) and lost some AP bets too, but landed a ridic bet by Willhill about a foreign horse winning the Arc 5/1 so about even.

Deasi jnr has been nailing the jumps in last week, so will take him up on the Letterpress and Kangaroo Court 15/1 double.

Was not going to bet today but Fats has convinced me without trying….I’ve ignored draw but either way this is SERIOUSLY tricky for a Friday!

York 2.00 – A mental race to try and pick a winner. Makin the Rules 8/1 is clearly consistent handles York, the distance, the ground and gets a decent claimer so has a decent chance. The Hooded Claw 8/1 is MILES ahead of the handicapper based on effort in listed race last time out, but there’s no market confidence and didn’t handle York last time, so I have to bet but only a small saver. Bahamian C 25/1 could be well handicapped based on first race but recent form not great and the only one at a big price is Mr Matthews 25/1. Handles York, form is pretty strong.

York 2.30 – Pearl Blue 8/1 is an obvious pick as was a comfortable winner in this race last year and only 3lb higher. Lady Gibraltar 16/1 ran out of her skin in a Listed race last time out and if this race is not too soon is certainly in with a shout as goes well here and with Kieran onboard Jarvis must think has a chance. Pabusar 16/1 runs out of skin every time he runs at York as if the first time headgear sharpens him up and the ground is not too soft then has a great chance. I’ve leaving Above Standard out as Pabusar ought to turn the tables now.

York 3.05 – Graphic is clearly the likely winner but surely too short. Haggas is still in good form and has an immense record at York. There are a few at interesting prices though as a result of having a strong favourite. Justonefortheroad 20/1 is 16lb lower (with claimer) than when 3.5lengths behind Navajo Chief in a Listed handicap over C&D. In first time blinkers to get him back on track. Brae Hill is slightly tempting as is hit and miss but goes well at York and finished very strongly in the same race. Another in the same who might have a sneaky chance is Andereigo 16/1. No surprise to see him bounce back to form with Fallon onboard.

York 3.40 – I think I’m being stupid but I really don’t get why City Zen 9/4 is not the favourite here. The form is best my a mile and ran a blinder here at York behind Hot Streak who won a G3 by 5 lengths last week?

York 4.15 – Wow too many formlines for me to really solve but Martin Chuzzlewit 14/1 has to be up here. Runs very well here, decent form and the drop in trip might be the answer today. Another with decent form, course form and down in the weights is Saptapadi 20/1. Elhaame is tempting but the only other I’ll got with is Lahaag 10/1 in the hope can see out the trip.