Friday, 10 January 2014

Bets 10/01/2014 + Week 1 Dubai Carnival Review

I seem to be prevailing on the flat and it’s the jumps that are bringing me down. A quick review of Meydan as good learnings:

Race 1 – The winner was one of the few that won a decent handicap last time out. 6 months off was always a risk but Appebly started his debut with a bang. RP has the ground down as god to soft. I had no idea this was the case and so the home team with speed horses were always likely to struggle. My pick last year’s winner Fityaan clearly had a reason for not racing since and ground would not have suited. The winner was pickable.

£10 ew Fityaan 25/1 – Lose - £0 back

Race 2 – I backed Busker a number of times last year and he did the job, but didn’t think it was the right distance for him yesterday. In his last race over a few furlongs shorter he was blazing home and this was the only clue to picking this winner. 2nd place Layali was on the shortlist but I didn’t think was up to winning. Having the 6lb claim was important and has been before. My pick Ottoman Empire did well enough and will keep him onside. El Estru, Specific Gravity and Clon B look like keeping and eye on especially the De Kock runners as tend to improve for first run.

£10 ew Ottoman Empire – 3rd Place - £20 back

Race 3 – Really pissed off about this one. Fulbright was the obvious winner except one crucial thing. He last 3 races were pants so took him off shortlist. He was running to an accurate 113 on tapeta in G2/3 company last year so was very well handicapped. In hindsight his last 3 runs can be excused for ground, field size and other reasons. Appelby again though. I picked a handful in this and the best was Modern History 20/1 who was unlucky to be pipped but was pipped but a better handicapped horse. Bertiwhittel finished the race well

£10 ew Modern History 20/1 – 2nd Place £65 back
£10 ew Maraheb 25/1 – 5th - £0 back
£10 ew Lui Rei 25/1 - £0 back
£10 ew Proud Possibility 20/1 - £0 back

Race 4 – Mushreq won easily like I expected as was class act. Do It All didn’t make all like I expected and won’t be betting like that again. Will keep an eye on both Gabrial and Artigiano

£25 Mushreq 7/2 – Win - £112.50 back
£10 Back to Lay Do It All – Lose

Race 5 – Shuruq was another good winner for me and no excuses for the other two

£20 Shuruq 6/1 – Win - £140 back
£20 Mufarrh 5/1 – Lose - £0 back
£10 ew Capital Attraction 10/1 – Lose £0 back

Race 6 – Another decent winner in Anaerobio for me. He will win again on that performance if not upgraded in class. Fav was disappointing

£20 Anaerobio 8/1 – Win - £180 back
£25 Complicate 7/2 – Lose £0 back
£10 ew Across The Rhine 20/1 – Lose £0 back

So I made about £250 quid on the single but lost around £100 on accs. Still, although I backed far too many horses, after 8/1, 6/1 and 7/2 winners with 12/1 and  20/1 placed horse I’m pretty confident I can nail Meydan again this year. I also think, all the races had pickable winners….

Nothing exciting today, but I have a few really decent ones tomorrow I think!


6.00 Wolves – Kashmir Peak is not yet proven on AW, so I marginally think the best C&D runner on show is Gabrials King 3/1.

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