Bets 11/01/2014

A decent day of jumping today. Sadly not been doing too well in this sphere, but there are a number of trainers in good form and a number of horses who hacked up last time out who still look well handicapped. Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has gone for 4 today:

2.10 Kempton - Pepite Rose 10/1

2.40 Kempton - Saphir Du Rheu 6/1

3.35 Warwick - Noble Legend 14/1, Royale Knight 16/1

I feel a good day for Hendo on the cards.

Kempton 12.25 – Toby Lerone 4/1 hopefully has not has confidence dented by last fall as I think has more improvement in him after a nice little break. Shangani has been heavily backed but has too many jumping issues for my liking

Wetherby 1.45 – Allied Answer 7/2 has to be ahead of the handicapper. If Wordy’s Boy is somehow 100 % fit after 2 years off he would potentially walk this but can’t back it

Warwick 1.55 – A lot to like about Dolatulo 4/1. Looks ahead of handicapper in both disciplines. Sew On Target ran well for me last time and also must get close, but just prefer Dola.

Warwick 2.25 – Aiden Coleman and the market reckons Tidal Dance 4/1 is going to hack up. Couple of longshots; Grand Vision 12/1 who returned from a long lay off last time has surprisingly not dropped in the handicap but if 80% back to best has a great chance. Cyrien Star 12/1 ran too soon last time still has more in him

Kempton 2.40 – A number of these have been slapped up a lot of pounds by the handicapper and it’s hard to see some of them overcoming that burden. I’ve not seen a horse blitz a field in the last 2furlongs like Saphir Du Rhen 6/1 did. It’s good form and Derham removes 5lb of the huge 15lb hike he easily deserves. Can he overcome that? I don’t know. I don’t think Home Run can reverse the form though, so will cross that off. Juntion Fourteen went up 16lb for a very easy win and is tempting. Kaylif Aramis is on the only one who drops in class and must go close too .But the two I really like are River Miague 7/1 and Spirit of Shankly 10/1. The former needed that first run, ran a blinder at Kempton over a year ago and I think is well handicapped at this Listed level. The latter has a blinding stable form, form at Kempton and the last race has two form winners which he walked and so looks well handicapped.

Wetherby 2.50 – Shimla Dawn 3/1 again must be ahead of the handicapper, with McMurrough 7/1 the form pick after first run back behind More of That

Kempton 3.15 – If anyone is going to get extra distance out of a horse it’s McCoy. He teams up again with Nadiya De La Vega 11/2 who he has won on a few times. The last race was never going to suit and must have a decent chance if sees the trip out

Warwick 3.35 – Was about 8 I liked in this so will just stick with Segal

Kempton 3.50 – If River Maigue wins the 2.40, bookies will be in Deep Trouble 4/1. It will be backed in as will hold the form. He would have won by a lot more had he not lost total control at the last but 8 pound rise might be a tad harsh. Has to be one of the bigger bets of day though, but again I think the market is right because Lyvius 4/1 is in decent form and The Skyfarmer is a solid yardstick. Must have a chance too. Except Right Step 33/1 to outrun price. 10lb claim will be huge as last time over C&D he was not closer because of a blunder when getting tired.

I’ve avoided a couple of the big races as I’ve just struggled to pick a winner so will chicken out a bit and just hit a Twinlight / Upazo 12/1 double as Mullins doesn’t send them over for fun.