Friday, 6 June 2014

Bets 06/06/2014 - The Oaks

Every year I seem to have a wad of picks in the Oaks and appears to be no different this year. The doubles I have are True Story/Ithimal 170/1 and Marvellous/Australia 12/1. Inevitably I will choke again. Let’s see. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has picked three today:

2.10 Epsom – Gworn 16/1
4.00 Epsom – Tarfasha 7/1, Amazing Maria 25/1

Right, let’s make some dollar….

1.35 Epsom – Thistle Bird 3/1 is a favourite of mine. She won this last year although I wasn’t sure she would 3f out. She is top rated, a few have done the double and I hope she can too. None of the others have ridden at Epsom before so if you back any other horse, you’re basically taking a gamble that Thistle Bird won’t run to top mark, your horse will improve from current mark and will handle Epsom. I just hope she settles. Just The Judge has let me down too many times now and need to let go, but may annoy me today. The most interesting horse I think is Mango Diva 6/1. She romped a G3 last year and if Ryan stays well positioned on her she may well take this. Skybet are taking the favourite on. Titanbet are offering 5/1 so makes me think they know she won’t win?

2.10 Epsom – Soviet Rock would have been pick 1 from the race back in April over C&D but after winning at Lingfield is up in the weights. Might still have a chance. Air Pilot has arguably the best form with Clever Cookie and looks on a very tempting mark. Farraaj looks like an interesting handicapper, and think extra distance and hitting the go button sooner will help. Hi There should turn the tables with Soviet Rock on this mark, and looked unlucky in that Epsom race but is always the risk with hold ups at Epsom, but next time out thumped by Clever Cookie. Resurge has won this twice before and on a winning mark but looked naff last time out, although was first run back. Tres Coronas has been hiked up the weights now and probably wants it softer and similar for Sennockian Star. Charles Camion is very interesting. Ground now in favour, Spencer onboard and was looking good behind Kaka in penultimate race and has slipped down weights. Segal has picked Gworn. Not sure why, but sure the race will show me. Salutation decent form behind Yar but a flop at Epsom. Aussie Reigns solid handicap form in Meydan. Clon Brulee 10/1 decent form back on turf handicaps and is the one I’m picking. After this blurb about how pretty much everyone has a chance, SBS is hitting form, he won his last handicap turf race by a shed load more than on paper. Cruised into the lead and won easily with half a furlong left. Clearly no shoo in but very good each way chance in a very competitive field.

2.45 Epsom – Gregorian 5/2 won this last year and keen on chances again. Haggas quoted is a bit frightened of Gosden’s one. Penitent was second in this last year but ground might be too quick. Titanbet taking her on by offering 5/1 again. I’m making a note of these to see how well they do!

3.20 Epsom – Abseil 5/2 has been smashed in for the Royal Hunt Cup which suggests a win here is a formality. Vainglory is a decent C&D player but an old boy now. Fury in on a very very low mark now, but need to wait till he hits form. Haggas has been smashing them in so can’t be surprised if does win. Llanarmon Lad looks interesting and I’m not too bothered about draw when look at previous winning stalls. Red Avenger could be on a decent mark but not convinced by trip. Dance and Dance 10/1 is one of the unluckiest handicappers I know, but today everything is in place

4.00 Epsom – My notes read…Dazzling – “Oaks filly”, Ihtimal “10l UAE Oaks Winner”, Madame C – “very good”, Palace “best AOB filly last yr”. Segal tipped up Palace Antepost @ 25/1 and Ladbrokes are shortest on her today which is interesting. I also have Volume @ 25/1. Can’t remember why. Think Hughes wrote something positive about her in one of his columns. There are no trainer clues as all of them are bullish about their chances. Today I am with Tarfasha 7/1. She destroyed a G3 field of decent markers.

4.45 Epsom – Parbold is costing me bucks and I reckon Moore and hood will fix this one up as the Shifting Power form is rock solid. Problem is That is The Spirit Evs looks Group Class in the making

7.10 Goodwood – Steeping Out 15/8


I don’t think it’s an easy day today, but let’s see what happens

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