Bets 17/06/2014 - Royal Ascot Day 1

 Get in Secret Gesture. I thought I was going to lose £2k just like that but class eventually prevailed. Right, first day of Ascot. I will be by the Veuve Tent until the first race, writing numerous accumulator slips….

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone for:

3.05 Ascot – Jungle Cat 25/1

3.45 Ascot – Es Que Love 33/1

5.00 Ascot – Sir Graham Wade 20/1, Another Cocktail 25/1

5.35 Ascot – Hootenanny 8/1

Right, time to break to bookies (I hope)… I just don’t know what AOB is going to do today. Might be worth covering a Verrazona/War Envoy/War Command combo. Also on Stats Verrazona/Kingman, but not 

backing any of these is singles…

2.30 Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes – Confidence is oozing out of the Hannon camp. Bookies are running scared and I just hope Toronado Evs does the necessary damage. Hannon has won this with Paco Boy and Canford Cliffs and surely Toronado who 5lbs clear on ratings can take this. Soft Falling Rain is decent but as best on Tapeta not turf.

If you watch the Lockinage, Verrazano was switched and definitely ran on strongly without being given a hard time. I’m convinced he could have got closer and at least have beaten Tullius. Not sure he could have beaten Olympic Glory. OG and Toronado are pretty closely matched in my view but Hughes is saying he has got better and therefore can’t have Verrazano (argh).

Side Glance is good but surely not up to this standard although is a G1 winner. Glory Awaits has not really improved since last year so can’t see him involved. Never heard of Ansgar. MoK is not a G1 horse.

Producer is decent but Hughes doesn’t think he can beat Toronado but might sneak a place. Anodin beat OG last time out but convinced OG did not run to form.

3.05  Ascot – Coronation Stakes – I really think The Wow Signal 13/2 e/w is under the radar here. He recorded a RPR of 92 on debut. Frankel hit 95, Kingman 96 on debuts. Now, I’m not suggesting he will progress as well but let’s look through that form. He beat Doc Charm by 9 lengths easily. Doc Charm then went on to beat Blackfoot Brave by 6 lengths in next race. TWS beat Jungle Cat by 20 lengths, who then went on to beat two pretty decent Hannon horses in a decent Goodwood maiden; Sixty and Aledaid. Sixty went on to win a maiden next race too and Aledaid was beaten 3 lengths by Adaay who is a shorter price than the Wow Signal. John Quinn was bullish about TWS chances and when you look through the form and watch his debut you can see why. His horses are doing pretty well too.

Adaay did not win as comfortably as the RP comments suggest, Kool Kompnay only just held on to his last win against Toscanini who was interestingly beaten 2 lengths by Cappella Sansevero 10/1 who also races today. Ger Lyons says possibly best he has ever trained and Qatar Racing bought him last night. I think that shows the quality. Also they made most of that money back by selling Frankel’s first foal to Coolmore.

Portamento might be interesting at a price as beat Toomores half brother pretty easily. Both War Command and Power came here unbeaten and I just didn’t like the way he failed to take over Kool Kompany last time. Ground and a few other excuses or a typical AOB trap? The upshot is AOB is generally not performing well so I am going to stick with The Wow Signal

3.45 Ascot – King’s Stand Stakes – Sole Power beat Shea Shea in this in a thriller last year. The ground looks to be slightly slower than last year which means neither two are guaranteed the fast ground they crave. Both have won me shed loads of cash but this year a new sprint king will be crowned. It will be Hot Streak 9/2. He absolutely bolted up in the Temple Stakes and a lot of people think he will win well again today. Pearl Secret was 3^rd to SS and SP and so the form holds after being beaten easily by Hot Streak.

I’m sure Guerre will be decent, but don’t think is up to scratch at this level yet and also did have a stone in hand when beat Maarek.

Ancil broke a the track record at Tampa Bay but has been in poor form since. Stepper Point 66/1 is a massive price considering how close he finished to the principles in the Palace House but not worth covering. Athough 14/1 and Medician Man 33/1 are also big prices looking at the Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan. Ordinarily I’d back one of these but I’m sticking to Hot Streak.

4.25 Ascot - St James Palace – Flip a coin? All the top pundits keep saying they should both be evens, but most are sitting on the fence, including Hughes. If you look at 2kG then Night of Thunder 5/2 wins this. Problem is Kingman is bloody good and will have improved again. Gosden put a sly comment out there about a spoiler. Can’t see it in Toomore even though he did beat a very good Great Gatsby but both were KO’d in the 2kG. War Command might be the one to do it. We’ve seen what AOB cheekpieces can do many times before. Ladbrokes are 13/2. Others are 9/1 at time of writing. Might be a clue? Outstrip is G1 Breeder turf winner so is a huge price and Yuften could be anything.

What makes this harder is I’m not sure if there will be any pace….

5.00 Ascot – Ascot Stakes – Ballinderry Boy 8/1 has been targeted at this race. He has Osin 3lb onboard and he has won at Ascot before. The quicker ground will help him stay the distance. Perfect Heart has ground to make up on BB and real aim was Chester Cup

Last year’s Queens Vase was all about Leading Light, the next Gold Cup Winner, but Ray Ward 12/1 ran a blinding race and looked a stayer on his way. A combination of bad tracks and bad distances have seen that mark drop to 89. If he runs to the form he did in the Vase last year and stay the extra 4f he looked like staying in that race he could be nearly a stone ahead of the handicapper…

Suraj 12/1 was 4^th in this a furlong out and did not have a clear run. After jinxing about he was pulled up so on paper looks like he was destroyed. He was not. He is 5lb lower and now trained by Henderson. Jumps trainers do very well in this. Must have a very, very, very good chance today.

5.35 Ascot – Windsor Castle – Ward says this about Hootenanny 8/1 so let’s go with it: “I think he will be running in one of the weaker two-year-old races, being a Listed race, so he can get the week off to a good start and leave everybody smiling.”

If Adaay runs wells earlier then Mind of Madness is worth backing.

Of the longshots, Prince Bonnaire 40/1 is one I will back. Reckon should have won last race easily and is going down the Fredick Engles route by looks of things. Coimmnader Pattern has had coupole outside tips, but Bailey is in dire form. Fuwairt 16/1 could make it a good day for Frankie.