I'm not sure I'll top last year at RA, but let's see...
I think it's a very tough day, playing two in each for most of them. Even if I think the fave can win, you know more often than not at Ascot, I'm playing a bigger priced ew chance :)
James McDonald, Oisin and Moore look to have the best of chances today.
2.30 Queen Anne - 5lb separates the top 7 in this race. Lake Forest not won over the trip before so be a tough test. If Cairo wins, just give up. Notable Speech looks suspect to me over 1m at Ascot and Appleby no record in this race. On RPRs Carl Spackler price is big and maybe a decent ew. Tough to win this though. Quddwah, Sardianian Warrior and Docklands don't meet trends. Dancing Gemini very interesting, but losing Moore means surely held by Lead Artist
Leaves Rosallion and Lead Artist the two most likely winners and Diego Velazquez and Carl Speckler.
Rosallion is the best horse in the race. Won from stall 1 last year and had to wait for room so can mark that effort up. I remember last year Hannon had 4 winners in few days before Ascot. He's had 1 this year and last 7 favourites beaten. A big worry for me. Gosden has real strong stats for last time out winners before Ascot (13/30) which alone gives Sardinian Warrior and Lead Artist chances. 4 yr old colts who've won the Lockinage are 5/8 wins. Sardinian maybe had a touch race at Longchamp?
I think Diego, Carl and Lead all still look progressive. Colin Keane is decent, but I'm playing the below in the hope the jockey change causes some challenge. Keane is 2/40 at Ascot. I have Rosallion in couple of accas and so here are the plays:
Diego Velazquez 12/1 offers decent ew value with 4 places. A lot of AOB horses not needed the run this year. That Meld stakes performance was solid and is 4/4 on G/GF 1m-1mf.
Carl Spackler 20/1 another that offers decent ew value with 4 places. European ped, RPRs are strong, times are strong. In fact times are faster than anything in field. Has a straight mile instead of a bend....
210/1 Rfc DV/CS
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3.05 Coventry - Military Code only just held on over 5 here so for me that's a no. Postmodern ran slow time and form not done much. Andab and Power Blue form very interesting given AE was the fave and now a NR. Be interesting to see the price Coppull drifts to. Might be worth an ew at big price.
Gstaad 9/2 an easy bet to place. Drawn well. Moore onboard. Beat True Love who is top3 in the Queen Mary on Wednesday and ran best final furlong which important here. 96 RPR decent enough for debut and AOB horse usually come on massively for first run. Saw it at 12/1 few days back, but looks like was hit hard which is annoying.....AOB won this 10 times.
Andab 14/1 should have backed it yesterday when 20/1, but hey decent ew with the AE formline. Will hopefully improve past Power Blue
Father/Son Rfc 60/1
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3.40 King Charles Stakes - Asfoora a massive winner for me last year, but prep looks different this year, plus blinkers added. Might be one for Glorious Goodwood. I've been chewing this one for too long and all the horses I want are drawn low. American Affair looks a massive improver and maybe can turn tables with Mgeera. Asterius is the most interesting of the 3year olds, but with sprinters have to back inform ones.
Believing 9/2 - I think better horse than last year. I am worried about the draw, but best horse behind Asfoora whose prep I don't like
Prime Art 50/1 - Supplemented for the race and came back this year much improved. Should have won lto, but had traffic issues and then was a difficult ride on wrong side of course. Has a solid turn of foot.
120/1 Rfc Believing / Prime Art
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4.20 - St. James Palace Stakes - Looking at times and Henri Matisse times were quick at Longchamp and Del Mar. Faster than anything Field of Gold has done.
Henri Mattisse 9/2
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5.00 Ascot Stakes - Reaching High interesting but not a real lot of experience. Align the Stars and Zoffee interesting at big ew prices. I like East India Dock just not from the draw. All the horses I like including Dawn Rising and Nurburgring all drawn so high I cannot entertain. The fast ground give flat staying horse more chances looking at previous results.
Zoffee 50/1 (Exchanges) - I'm not sure can win, but does have form in the race, generally in good nick after a decent Chester Cup run and Palmer is banging in winners. Decent place chances.
Poniros - 3/1 So much money has come for this and when you think 149 hurdle rating to 91 flat rating got to think is chucked in. I mean it's massive.
Rfc Zoffee / Poniros 90/1
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5.35 - Wolferton Stakes - Sonsandlovers is potentially a 115+ horse. Not sure about draw. Galen and maybe couple others are going to set a lively pace here, so really don't want anytime trapped behind horses. Checkandchallenge is once again a big ew price.
King's Gambit 13/2 - Best horse in race over course, distance and at ratings. Hateem not proven at this distance and Hannon form as above worries me.
Meydaan 14/1 - Potential big improver.
Rfc KG/ Meydaan 95/1
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6.10 Copper Horse Stakes - Charlus a total unknown to me, but it's a Mullins horse in a staying handicap at RA so can't ignore.. French Master 5/2 with first time blinkers not for me thanks. May well romp but not betting it in a race like this, though will likely put into an acca only. Pappano interesting off this mark but thinks want soft. Not heard of Banso before but on numbers is well handicapped. Fairbanks and Prywden also well handicapped
My Mate Mozzie 33/1 (Antepost). One of the few AP bets had this year. His run in the JH at Chelts was much better than a lot of his runs last year. Therefore I'm stating he's improved. Runs off 4lb lower with Warren F's decent 5lb claim and easily could have won last year.
Barnso 20/1 The form behind Chemistry and Kyprios tell me this is well handicapped. Should have finished closer in a handicap but was staying on far too late. Oisin is booked to master the ride.
214/1 Rfc MMM/Barnso
