Bets 11/08/2025

 Windsor 7.10

Chief Mankato 10/1ew (8/11) & Change Signs 15/2ew (8/11)

Missed the break lto and had traffic issues, yet gets a 6lb pull with Badri and is double the price. Channon stable back into form and a 42% SR in August at Windsor enough for me to hit the button. Amazonian Dream has plummeted in the weights but has shown nothing of late and don't like the stats. Woolhampton is interesting but think will hit traffic all day long being held up from that draw. The other which difficult to ignore is Change Signs. The form behind Circe over C&D is decent enough. It's run in a G3 at Sandown shows potentially is ahead of mark and I'd just ignore the run lto in the Racing league with cheekpieces on. Was supposed to win at 2/1. The rfc pays 80/1 for those who play loose change on these.

Bets 09/08/2025

Ascot - Shegar Cup is generally one to avoid, but given 3 I think have chances are ridder by Jo or Hollie (only two racing here today with course form, it's worth a go). Sadly, like Haydock no big prices.

2.10 Ascot Handicap - La Vita Nova 4/1 (8/11)

Ran really well in the Curragh stayers handicap and improved last even though running over too shorter distance. Harrington won the race two years back, is in great form and is 2/2 with first time cheekpieces in the last couple years. Only Hollie and Jo have experience of Ascot and Hollie rides this....

3.20 Ascot Handicap - Zayer 7/1ew (6/11)

Opened 11/1 so missed the juicer price but still think there is some value left in the price. Ran a cracker in the Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot. Step up in trip was a good one. Back to Ascot in a much easier race. Jo Mason onboard. Has an 11lb pull with Prince of India and I'm not sure that's enough to turn the tables, but given the jockey onboard, willing to risk Jo can help turn the tables.

4.30 Ascot Handicap - Treasure Time 11/2ew (8/11)

Hasn't found form this season, and when it does it is going to win a decent handicap / big prize pot (this is a big prize pot). This one has also been backed a fair bit already, and the stats are decent with this one.

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Haydock - No major trends to assess today and I can't find any big price value on the card

2.25 Haydock Non Handicap - Protest 4/1 (8/11)

Improving rapidly. Varian won this twice before.

3.00 Haydock Non Handicap - Royal Dubai 5.1 Exchanges (9/11)

Royal Dubai was an impressive winner LTO. Burrows targets this race and does well with his LTO winner. Jockey/Trainer combo in fields of less than 12 is a whopping 7/9 wins....

5.20 Haydock Handicap - Hawksbill 5/1 (8/11)

The form behind Luther over C&D means this one on a going day is going to win this. Given Palmer still in good form , has won this race before and now second race post gelding op, seems the perfect time to recapture form

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Newmarket

3.07 Newmarket Handicap  - Righthere Rightnow 11/2ew (8/11)

Took a while to get going LTO, but finished well and was a return to form. Is a C&D winner and if runs anything like that could be tough to beat. The price has been nicked on this already as well. Very annoying.

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Curragh

4.35 Curragh - The Highway Rat 7/1ew (2/11)

If runs to C&D mark from that G2 will win this. Only meets 2 of normal 11 markers, but 1 of them is a max. Be warned!!!

5.05 Curragh - Rappell 7/1ew (6/11)

Ran really well over C&D and also LTO over too short. Trainer comes in in good enough form, draw is decent and rest of field relatively average

Bets 07/08/2025

After some tricky handicaps  just some small punts to keep interest until better racing returns

2.20 Notts - Yazaman 10/1

Decent C&D winner on very winnable mark

5.30 Chepstow - Adison Grey 4/1

Likely quite far ahead of opening mark.

7.00 Chepstow - Be Frank 8/1

In good form, likes straight tracks, should have won lto and Saffie knows how to ride this track.

8.30 Chepstow - Austrian Theory 14/1

Likes undulating tracks. Should have won a handicap this season and I think can ff this mark. Easterby and Allan go well enough here

Bets 02/08/2025

Ardestia! I knew was decent. Wish delivered when backed it as 70s! Anyhow onwards. Good to get 2 decent winners on the board after some shocking days.

1.55 Goodwood - Subsequent 11/1ew (5), Feigning Madness 12/1ew (5) (Split stakes)

Runs well after a short breaks and goes on this ground. Balding placed in this race 3/5. Is well handicapped looking at that Ascot run. Stays all you need. The risk is if fooks the start. If doesn't and races prominently can win this. I like Master Builder, but not sure will stay fully at this distance on slow ground. Feigning Madness, highly tried in ground races. 16f was too far. 12f was too short. Running 14f today...

3.05 Goodwood - Completely Random 12/1ew (5), Strike Red 14/1ew (6) (Split stakes)

The draw has got me this week so picking one either side. Completely Random meets trends and gets a good pull with Eljomed. Whelan has ridden it to all 3 wins and low draw dominated on Day 4. Strike Red is just in great form and as I'm backing CR given the pull gets with this that I have to back it from the high draw

3.45 Goodwood - Headmaster 10/1ew (6), The Waco Kid 25/1ew (5) (Split stakes)

I thought Headmaster would be close to fave here. Chucked in on paper based on formlines. Enthusiam is massively tempered with the jockey. Not sure who it is.... The Waco Kid is much riskier. Has to bounce back to form, but if does could make all here and not be caught 

4.05 Thirsk - Darkness 11/1ew (5)

If bounces back to form showed over C&D couple months back can win this

4.55 Goodwood - Killybeg Warrior 33/1ew (6)

On best form this is the best on the going and distance. Ran okay in the Chesterfield Cup last year when running for MJ. Didn't stay the 1m2f. Down 1f, perhaps ground will have dried out more by end of day and can get home. Running off 10lb lower than that. Ran well last time out so hopefully can build on it.

Bet 01/08/2025

Keeping it simple today. Didn't even bother with trends or draw assessment. Goodwood not working out this year :)

Could have got some decent prices if was on the ball earlier when ground turned heavy.  

1.20 Goodwood - Tashkhan 8/1ew

Love soft. Runs well fresh. Can win off this mark.

2.30 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn 12/1ew

Multiple C&D winner on heavy. Ran well enough from poor draw lto. Assuming no worse for it has a great chance in these conditions

3.05 Goodwood - Kerdos 9/1ew

I have Asfoora 8/1 AP and soft no issue. Think the one to beat still but like Kerdos chances. In good form as is Cox and goes in the ground fine. Clarendon House may be a big ew play.

3.45 Goodwood - Carrytheone 9/1ew

Only Liberty Lane is as good on this ground.

4.20 Goodwood - Game Striker 20/1ew

C&D winner and ped says will like soft. I backed Ardisia 70s lto and was potentially really unlucky. Put a small cover on this.

4.55 Goodwood - Ride The Thunder 10/1ew

Decent formlines. Will like the ground and step up

Bets 31/07/2025 - Not So Glorious Goodwood Day 3

 Not sure would have picked many of these winners on Day 2, even in hindsight. 

1.20 - Want a low drawn horse who is prominent. Ersnt Blfeld 25s, is one and the other is Janey Makers. Going for Janey Makers 18/1ew as ran pretty well at goodwood over C&D lto. Missed the break and was running on slower pat of track. Run in Listed twice so obviously rate the horse. Is a bit of juice in her mark. 

1.55 - Coppull 7/2

3.05 - Whirl 11/10

3.45 - Marty Hopkirk 15/2ew. Meets trends. In very good form. Good draw. Prominent runner. Unexposed. Good chance. Wanted to back Nad Alisha Green, but Appelbys horses not running well at Goodwood last couple days.

4.20 - Goldwork 15/2ew. Meets trends. Solid course winner. Eve had two decent winners at GG already. Stellar Sunrise just franked form. Vicotrious One the big danger.

5.30 - Antipodes 8/1ew. Looks well treated and form is working out well

Bets 30/07/2025 - Glorious Goodwood Day 2

Total whitewash. Happens. Didn't expect it. Went with Tony M in the first. Can't find any obvious excuses. Didn't pick but called out Naqeeb 28s and Silawi 18s as ones considered as met trends but Westridge was far too good backed from 22s overnight. Laureate missed the break, Kinross was my best result of the day being a NR. M Appleby's string all ran poorly.

1.20 - Sudu 5/1ew.

Meets the trends. 2lb ahead of handicapper officially, but likely more watching it's win lto. Form of Newbury pretty good. Varian won 2 renewal of this from 3 runners. He also in good nick and his record with lto winners based on this horse profile is over 50%.

Cape Breton, Novelista and Mdawi also met all trends applied.

1.55 - Arabian Dusk 14/1ew

Backed lto. Coming strongly enough but couldn't pick up. I think can get 7f. Pretty strong on ratings for the price.

2.30 - Military Code 7/2

One to beat.

3.45 - Wonder Star 9/1ew.

Wonder Star, Wisper and Patagonia Girl meet the trends applied. I probably missed the value with Wisper but hasn't won of a mark this high before so leaving it.

Wonder Star beat Spirited Style at Ascot by 3lengths. That horse is now rated 106. Even though didn't run that well lto, was some encouragement. Haggas does well with handicap debutants and gotta love Sea the Stars at Goodwood. Think we'll see this horse at Royal Ascot next year. 

4.55 - Diamondonthhill 33/1ew

Ideally you want to be drawn 10 and below. I do wonder with the draw bias today though if anyone is brave enough to move over to grab it in this 7f race. Would only make sense for higher drawn horses to attempt this though.

Native Warrior, Diamondonthehill, Rosycolyn, Physique and Signature Castle meet all trends applied. I can make a strong case for 4 of these, but plumping for the biggest price one. A super consistent horse. Proven at the track. Meets the trends and stable had a 25/1 winner here on Day 1. Jockey is a worry even though takes 5lb claim. I did watch a couple of here rides, and I think she's fine. She won a G1 with JOB in Ireland last month.