Bets 30/06/2013

Missed all the racing yesterday, but Tominator 10/1, Majestic Queen 16/1 and Baby Strange 14/1 made it a good day. I'm VERY annoyed that I got put off by backing favs and especially those on my tracker so lost out on Ducab, Jack Dexter, Tropics and Fig Roll. But hey ho, my loss.

Segal finally chalked up a winner after a dry Ascot spell and has 3 more today:

Chantilly 2.40 - Anodin 13/2
Curragh 3.05 - Back Burner 25/1
Curragh 3.35 - Rehn's Nest 20/1

My thoughts:

Chantilly 2.40 - I agree with Fats that Style Vendome looks like the likely winner and 2/1 is perhaps generous? I'm trying to find value and it has to be San Marino Grey 12/1. I think there's a Tricast waiting to happen with these two and Segal's pick?

Curragh 3.05 - Maggie Dalton 9/1

Windsor 3.20 - Duroble Man's 3/1 form with London Bridge and Broughton is rock solid but I am thinking that with Gosden in form Flying Officer looks on a decent mark, but must be questions about trip and first run of season?

Windsor 3.55 - Fast 8/11 ought to win down in class

Windsor 4.30 - Rees' Rascal 5/1 must rate as a solid place option. C&D winner, form franked at C2 level and hopefully still improving

Salisbury 4.05 - Fair Trade 2/1 on a low low mark and ought to romp this

Bets 29/06/2013

Taken apart yesterday. My one tentative bet on City Girl was only real bit of credit and although a couple of short price favs won too was pretty disastrous!!

Tom Pricewise Segal needs to help me out today! He has gone for:

Newcastle 2.40 - Baby Strange 16/1
Newcastle 3.15 - Mashaari 33/1, Ardlui 10/1
Curragh 4.45 - Mississippi 14/1, Srucahan 33/1

I'm going to take my time with this today, so my punts after close to midday.

Newcastle 2.05 - Jack Dexter is a worthy favourite but the one who must be the danger is Justineo 8/1. Varian is in cracking form has a decent record at Newcastle (30%) and the form of the last is pretty. Then again Majestic Myles could easily bounce back and is one that has raced in decent group races. Most of them are stepping up in class. No bet - can't decide.

Newcastle 2.40 - Fast Shot 6/1 won this last year, in decent enough form, drawn well, but it's that Dick Bos form I'm not overly keen on

Chester 2.45 - Lady Ibrox 10/1 course specialist has been running in races far better than this company. Back to realistic terms and good enough draw

Newcastle 3.15 - Was all over Ile De Re last year and he runs of the same mark! Why would you not back him? Well the only reason is beacause the second in that race Crackentorp is 5lb lower and is 33/1! Handsome Man could well be decent and money for him but not sure the form has worked out. If Party Line stays the trip then 33/1 is interesting as is 7lb better off with Ardlui when beaten 5.5 lenghts in their last encounter. My two more obvious picks would be Tominator 10/1 and Moidore 10/1 on form.

Newmarket 3.30 - Libranno 10/1 will surely struggle to make all and win conceding this penalty? Or will he? Always steps up in this race

Chester 3.55 - If you're going to take a long shot it has to be at Chester, 8 runners, 3 places and a horse you know can handle the track. Today that is Kay Gee Be 33/1, else Kiama Bay 4/1 is worthy fav

Curragh 4.15 - Majestic Queen 16/1 - following money

Curragh 4.45 - Artic 40/1, Bajan Tryst 20/1

Curragh 5.50 - Russian Soul 8/1

Curragh 6.30 - Sugar Boy 10/1

Bets 28/06/2013

Nice cheeky double on Big Time Billy and Winning Express saved blushes yesterday. I shouldn’t punt on low grade races, I know, but I love it.

Doncaster 2.30 – Talent Spotter 4/1 and Misty Sparkler 14/1 have best form on show (I think)

Musselburgh 3.45 – Rothesay Chancer 5/1. There are a fair few solid C&D winners but you can’t get away from the Kingsgate Choice form. I owe that form bucks and maybe it’ll pay out again.

Doncaster 4.10 – Muharrib 6/1 was an impressive winner here on last run. Yes, first run back but does stop the SBS horses generally. Saw that yesterday with My Freedom. Only one to have course experience which usually important at Donny.

Doncaster 4.45 – Toast of the Town 2/1 is the best of the raced. Unraced look at the pedigree of Filia Regina 9/1 – tasty

Doncaster 5.20 – Gabrials Star 12/1 is creeping down the weights and has no excuses today and Rocktherunaway 14/1 based on C&D

There is some decent racing tonight so will have a look apres work!

5.30pm update.. I got RIPPPPPED to shreds at donny.

Newmarket 5.55 – I’m not sure it’s worth taking on the 3yr old fav is this as Aussie Reigns 7/4 has strong claims, but if I did it has to be with Greyfriarschorista 12/1. Down the weights, step up in trip looks a good thing to do and step down in class too.

Newmarket 6.30 – Lamar 6/4. In the tracker behind Wedding Ring so good form and hopefully experience will pay off

Chester 6.50 – At the weights you have to back Toto Skyllachy 9/4. With WTD onboard essentially got a 3 length headstart. I’ll be annoyed with myself if Clockmaker wins. One that’s on my tracker and missed him at 12/1!

Newcastle 7.15 – Prussian 5/4 owes me one after flopping last time. Back in trip needed.

Chester 7.25 – If Danat Al Atheer 2/1 takes to Chester and doesn’t kick off a fuss in the stalls may well romp this with 3yr old hefty allowance

Newcastle 7.45 – Can the York Glory and Kingsgate form land another big bet? Lady Gib 9/1 is the obvious one with Confessional 9/1 and Ubetterbegood 16/1 also interesting

Chester 7.55 – We know London Bridge is miles ahead of the handicapper but not around to stop Broughton 2/1 this time.

Newmarket 8.05 – Being potentially controversial here with myself. I know the Zanetto formline is not very strong anymore but I’ve got a soft spot for City Girl 8/1. Massively hampered in last race. Beckett knows how to win this race too so for me it’s worth a punt.

Chester 8.25 – The sensible bet is probably Kingscroft and I might have a saver on it, but I’ve watched back 2 races he run at Chester and the jinks around on the home straight as if unbalanced – it’s weird. So I’ll take a chance with Red Art 15/2. Down in weights and does go well here.

Chester 9.00 – Osin must be one of the best 7lb jocks around at the moment and Clary 13/2 ran a decent race here behind Callmeakhab who I backed other day but sadly was a NR. No idea if well handicapped as form was confusing but let’s go with it.

Bets 27/06/2013

I'v been having a few random bets not on this blog as the boys are freaking loving the punting at the moment and Watsapp has exploded. Had a good win on Venus de Milo yday and Green Lightening the day before. Few today:

Newcastle 3.00- Hi There 7/1, Galician 10/1 – backed both last night. Hi There - Ignore Epsom 8f fast perfect. Galician – backed last time – decided to jump litter on the track when was blatantly going to win. Step up good and Johnston starts to come into form at this time of year ready for Goodwood

Newcastle 3.30 – Big Time Billy 5/4 – Bowen smashing them in and looks well handicapped. Neil Farley surely must have learned that he needs to go bloody sooner on Come Here Yew 10/1

Warwick 3.40 – Winning Express 8/11 keep bumping into some smart horses and can hopefully win this. Looks a decent horse and the Sky Lantern from is the best on offer

Newcastle 4.00 – A very odd gamble on Mullins Way 8/1

Yarmouth 4.20 – Comrade Bond 11/2 – Decent C&D runner and last time ran here was close to Khubala and King of Jazz

Bets 26/06/2013

5 minute glance so very speculative punting on 3.00 Carlisle Just Like Heaven 16/1 and 3.30 Carlisle Cooperwood 20/1

Bets 25/06/2013

Brighton 2.15 - Beacon Lady 5/2 should have done far better last time out and ridden into contention earlier. Reunited with Nordblad who has a 80% SR on this course must go close

Beverley 4.00 - Reset City 2/1

Beverley 5.00 - Tallaay 6/1 - This is purely speculative on jockey booking and this stat I read "Cape Cross three-year-olds have produced notable statistics at Beverley since the start of 2012, with five winners and four second places from nine runners"

Newbury 8.00 - Callmeakhab 11/2 w/o Imperial Glance. Auction was 2nd in the Sandringham. Strong form if ignore last race on AW

Newbury 8.35 - For exactly the same reason Everleigh w/o Fav 7/1

Bets 24/06/2013

All I will say is York Glory. I said that form was the strongest handicap form and it really was. Was double the price the day before so I was not the only one who would have been happy. I LUMPED on. I mean LUMPED on.

Chepstow 2.30 - Dimitar 8/1 will relish step up in trip.

Windsor 7.40 - Derwent 7/1 will like it back away from turf and Short Squeeze 10/1 back in trip is REALLY loved by his trainer.

Bets 22/06/2013 - Royal Ascot Day 5

Thank you Ladbrokes for pointing me towards Leading Light. Had a hefty wedge on which brought me up for the day, just. I’ve been putting on far more than my £20 over the last few days on certain horses. Naughty. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost is having a bad week here, but maybe today is his day. He has had 24 out of 24 losers, but I like some of his today:

Ascot 2.30 – Ihtimal 10/1

Ascot 3.45 – Dandy Boy 16/1, Slade Power 14/1

Ascot 4.25 – Louis The Pious 25/1

Ascot 5.00 – Stensive 10/1, Ustura 12/1

Ascot 5.35 – Courtesy Call 12/1

I’m off to Ascot today. Gona be mental. GL.

Ascot 2.30 – Bunker 11/4

Ascot 3.05 – I am Mount Athos 3/1

Ascot 3.45 – Kypton Factor 16/1 is top rated, Society Rock 4/1 as long as he breaks well, Dandy Boy 16/1 decent C&D

Ascot 4.25 – York Glory 25/1 Antepost has best handicap form on show this season and if takes to Ascot will have a great chance. Duke of Firenze was also an Antepost Bet which am sticking with. Was keen on Nocturn but form has not held up. Bapak C would make a mockery of mark on best form but just in bad bad form.

Ascot 5.00 – Following the Azeemah formline here so Stensive 10/1 and Silver Lime 20/1 – I think being drawn wide will help them avoid traffic. Hammerfest 12/1 was second in this last year with no well handicapped Cambourne to deal with. Random guy who called me reckons lump on Rye House 6/1

Ascot 5.35 – Courtesy Call 12/1, Junior 12/1 and Mad Moose 12/1

Bets 21/06/2013 - Royal Ascot Day 4

Another fandabydosy day yesterday. Even landed my first ever placepot with 4 winning lines. Segal is adamant there has been no draw bias. I’m totally not convinced by that. When the clerk waters one side of a field after the first day, he knows there was a bias and then having over watered it the other side hacked up. Either way he has had 19 bets this weeks and no winners, but he knows far more than me and I won’t stop following his bets. So today Pricewise from the Racingpost has gone for:

Mutashaded -3.05 Ascot -1pt win at 12-1 with Boylesports (10-1 with Paddy Power)

Siyenica -3.45 Ascot  -1pt win at 12-1 generally

Fattsota - 4.25 Ascot -1pt win at 16-1 generally

Campanology -5.35 Ascot - 1pt win at 22-1 with Hills (20-1 generally)

Dream Tune - 5.35 Ascot- 1pt win at 14-1 with bet365 and Paddy Power

Let’s hope for another few winners today and one big acc J

Ascot 2.30 – Albany – Deano reckons this tipster knows his stuff. He also tipped Elidor like me yesterday so maybe he does!? Anyway he has gone for Lucky Kristale 25/1. I really don’t know how to choose between these and as much as I like Sandiva I just have to back the Frankel line; Joyeuse as I can now get 9/2. Going totally against the market with this, but meh. Feck I’ve accidently backed this random tip twice. I did that the other day with One Chance 100/1 and it paid off. Maybe an omen! Ha.

Ascot 3.05 – King Edward - Everything I read says take on Derby horses I this race. It was a tough one, but Battle of Marengo is rated 14lb higher than anything else in this. Hmmm. I genuinally don’t rate that Derby form to be top drawer so I will take on with Tha’ir 16/1. He ran a decent race one first effort back last time out and although another step up in trip we know he goes here as won the Chesham last year. The only off putting thing is that Hoarding got thumped a couple of days ago so the form takes a hit but at best he was up there with Olympic Glory and Toranado over a shorted trip.

Ascot 3.45 – Coronation – Ahhh Just The Judge, Sky Lantern and my other contender Rehn’s Nest are all drawn out wide. The JTJ for has stood up all week at Ascot and I’m not deserting it. This has to be the hardest Group race to call all week. Purr Along was blinding last year but yes had injury setback, Viztoria is rated the same as JTJ and Lynam’s last 3 runners have all won, including Sole Power, Lovely Pass is also solid based on C&D and form against Shuruq, Stoute is a genius and the fact supplemented Pavlosk could be very meaningful and then you also have Siyenica. Bloody hell. Urgh. Right if the draw is not a factor then JTJ 5/1 but if it is then you have to be on Big Break 6/1. Form with JTJ, will improve after first run and Weld has an amazing record with 3yr old fillies.

Ascot 4.25 – Wolferton -  Pyman has written up a decent case for Albasharah 5/1 and although he been hiked up the weights the form of the previous stacks up and to listed level too. All the stats say 4 year old have a good record in this, but our 4yr olds are butters. Gosden has won the last two years and although has not yet hit top form chance taken with Dick Doughtywylie 10/1. Don’t think he’s massively well handicapped, but has a good draw and has sound place chances at minimum

Ascot 5.00 – Queens Vase - Ladbrokes have opened up mega short on Leading Light 2/1 and it looks daft to take on. However in the betting without market worth backing Royal Skies 7/1. Wanted to back him yesterday but was a NR. Only a few trainers can surely train a young horse to this distance so stick to the Jumps trainers, Johnstons, Obriens and Stoutes of the world, I reckon

Ascot 5.35 – Loving Spirit 16/1 has to be backed based on last race. Looked short of room and ran on really well but draw concerns me. So another to looked at is Nassau Storm 20/1. Belgian Bill franked form, has a good low draw and decent form here at Ascot. I’d be daft no to back the favourite Enrol 7/1. Form is rockadoodlesolid. Whothecatz landed me a solid 14/1 the other day with that form.

Bets 20/06/2013 - Royal Ascot Day 3

Well I totally went on the wrong side of the track yesterday except for my 100/1 which placed. Duntle & Rizeena won with a couple of good places so recouped all my loses from first day and a bit more as only went with £2.50 e/w accs, rather than the usual £10 e/w ones! Tom Pricewise Segal had a ‘mare yesterday but is back again with a host of picks:

• Biographer -3.45 Ascot -1pt win at 25-1 with Boylesports and Ladbrokes
• Market Town - 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win at 25-1 generally
•  Queensberry Rules - 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win at 25-1 with Paddy Power (22-1 with bet365)
• Windhoek -5.00 Ascot - 1pt win at 16-1 generally
• Greeleys Love - 5.35 Ascot -1pt win at 33-1 with Coral (25-1 generally)
• Number One London- 5.35 Ascot -1pt win at 16-1 with Boylesports and Hills

I’m keeping it simple today as don’t have time and also far too many unexposed horses. Just want the rain to come for Rite of Passage.

Ascot 2.30 – Coach House 5/2 on rumour, Coulsty 7/1 ran a blinder last time out and looked impressive too

Ascot 3.05 – Alive Alive Oh 11/4, Just Pretending 13/2

Ascot 3.45 – ROP, ROP, ROP 7/1 (I’ve backed Simenon 12/1 and Earl of Tinsdal 25/1 AP advised by Pricewise). Unfair that Model Pupil has been lumped at 50/1. Beat a host of decent horses last time and was certainly plugging on.

Ascot 4.25 – Wentworth 4/1 looks ahead of the handicapper and Secret Talent 18/1 as I love a Morrison handicapper at the Royal Meeting and decent enough from over C&D. Also means have one low draw and one high draw – now watch the middle hack up.

Ascot 5.00 – Remote 7/2 on rumour and what the experts say, Elkayeed 8/1 as is the next best thing to Telescope on all known form and won me both my last bets. Looks impressive. Chopin 13/2 must be a danger. I was keen on him for the Derby and trip down in trip will suit. Dunno which one to back as all short.

Ascot 5.35 – Royal Skies 12/1 as a decent Johnston shot – he does well in this race, Elidor 25/1 based on form at Donny and Pontefract. Damn Royal Skies is a NR so Shrewd 33/1. Bell another who does well with 3yr old handicaps

2.15pm update - just looking at Colour Vision 16/1. Looks overpriced on return to decent ground and level weights. First time visor too?

Bets 19/06/2013 - Royal Ascot Day 2

Home advantage looked a massive advantage as did the draw yesterday – well only if the jockey decided to go that way. I’m sure everyone will tomorrow! I had a shocker. Overly excited, accumulators ahoy. Did more in accs than singles and paid the price. Irrelavant I had a shocker. Segal has 3 good places and my only decent bet was on Declaration of War because Ladbrokes opened up 11/2 and made me think something was going on! Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone for another handful (7 in fact):

Mutin - 2.30 Ascot - 1pt win at 10-1 with Coral (9-1 with bet365)

Saint Baudolino - 3.45 Ascot - 1pt win at 14-1 with Betfred and Ladbrokes

Educate - 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win at 14-1 generally

Field Of Dream - 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win win at 33-1 with bet365 (22-1 with Coral)

Reroute - 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win at 14-1 with Betfred (12-1 with Boylesports)

Bracing Breeze - 5.35 Ascot - 1pt win at 11-1 with Hills (10-1 with Boylesports)

Mango Diva - 5.35 Ascot - 1pt win at 8-1 with Boylesports (7-1 generally)

Note to self: Don’t get carried away – It’s a freaking hard day!

Ascot 2.30 – Jersey Stakes – Pearl Flute 14/1 has been racing in competitive races and Spencer has a decent record on straight tracks. Well drawn on what was seen yesterday. Well Acquainted 25/1 is a horse I was quite frustrated with last year but Espom is apparently good indicator for the Royal meeting and his last race was mighty impressive and perhaps should be rated a bit higher? Ah and what about my boy Ninjago 25/1 who didn’t get the pace he needed last time. Bound to get it this time. Opps got carried away already! O

Ascot 3.05 – Cambridge - I just really like Duntle 11/4. A group 1 winner, C&D winner including in last year’s meeting. Wachman’s string is in decent form and yep the Irish are smashed us yesterday!

Ascot 3.45 – Prince of Wales – The top 3 in the market are all tempting, but following through form lines and OR I end up with Red Cadeaux 22/1. Could this be Detorris first Group 1? I’m looking for value and this is where I’ve ended up. This formline is even true with Maxio, who I was tempted to back, as Red Cadeuax has beaten Dunaden, Pastrious and Plantuer

Ascot 4.25 – Royal Hunt - There’s an almighty gamble going on with Field of Dream 33/1 into 10/1. However I’m sticking to the stands side and go with Moran Gra 25/1 who was travelling very well in same race as Navajo Chief until first race match fitness kicked in and then at Curragh when probably struggled off top weight and also Sandagiyr 50/1 who ran in decent enough handicaps in Meydan. SBS won this race with Invisible Man a few years ago and maybe even Directorship 28/1?

Ascot 5.00 – Queen Mary - Urgh. Who knows. Apparently speed figures mean Reroute is exciting. I’m going to punt on a random outsider who had some from with Rizeena and ran a blinder last time out. One Chance 100/1. Far more realistically the boys are keen on Fast 14/1, but can’t help think this is between either Rizeena 13/2 or Beldale Memory 9/2

Ascot 5.35 – Sandringham – Nargys 20/1 is back and certainly owes me one. Not sure what happened last time out, but certainly has a few pounds in him (I hope). If the draw bias still exists then Fleeting Smile and a couple others will certainly set up a fast pace for Nargys to storm home, if doesn’t get trapped like did when behind Just the Judge. Expert weaver Spencer onboard. Hint of a Tint 10/1 also similar Just The Judge form line and another one of Wachmans. The outsider cos I just have to have one is Harmonic Note 135/1 on Betfair. Trapeze who finished a length behind HArmoic Note on level weights is 33/1  but is 4lb out the handicap this time so price does not make sense. That Elik race is not that bad either

This is a tough day....

Bets 18/06/2013 - Royal Ascot Day 1

We have arrived. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone for 6 selections today:

Trade Storm -2.30 Ascot -1pt each-way at 14-1 generally

Pearl Secret - 3.05 Ascot - 1pt win at 14-1 with Coral (12-1 generally)

Sir John Hawkins - 4.25 Ascot - 1pt win at 6-1 generally

Big Easy - 5.00 Ascot -1pt win at 14-1 with Ladbrokes (12-1 generally)

Mubaraza - 5.00 Ascot - 1pt win at 11-1 with bet365 and Ladbrokes

My Catch -5.35 Ascot -1pt win at 20-1 with Ladbrokes (16-1 with Hills)

The bookies could take a pounding if the favourites oblige today and I’ve been pretty bland and followed most of them.

Ascot 2.30 – Queen Anne – As much as I want to I just don’t see the point taking on a horse rated 10lb higher in a G1. There’s talk about the straight course, drop back in trip and different ground, but Animal Kingdom Evs is a class horse. In my opinion there can surely only be one horse in this race that can beat AK and that’s one of my favourite horses; Elusive Kate, the closest bet to Excelebration/Cityscape and therefore Frankel. Betting without he is Elusive Kate is 10/3. Ladbrokes are really short about Declaration of War 9/1. They are 11/2! Ballydole connections.

Ascot 3.05 – King’s Stand – If Shea Shea 2/1 was not in this race would be exciting from a betting perspective, but he is and I just don’t see the point in taking a horse that freaking quick on. On bare stats he thumps Sole Power but when you watch the videos he destroys Sole Power so would be surprised if tables were turned and that rules out most of them on that formline alone. Swiss Spirit was very unlucky last time out

Ascot 3.45 – St James Stakes – I just can’t take Dawn Approach 6/4 on.

Ascot 4.20 – Coventry – Read a decent article by Pyman about the profile of horses that win this and it all points directly towards Stubbs 3/1. Looks straightforward enough and will no doubt continue to improve. If Riverboat Springs was not so hard to get going I’d be all over him cos he has some serious pace, but I think his optimum might well be further. Still might be worth a bet in the without Stubbs market.

Ascot 5.00 – Ascot Stakes - Hobbs has sent out 3 winners out of the last 5 runners. Big Easy 14/1 is one of the best if not best hurdler in this. He stays. He’s got a fair bit of pace and WTD is taking off a decent 5lb. As I’ve written this over the last few hours, he’s been backed into 10/1. I could back many others but I’m sticking to one and also Midnight Oil 10/1.

Ascot 5.35 – Windsor – No need to get involved in this. But will stick with the International theme and tap Ogermeister 7/1. Be interesting to see how Wilshire Boulevard 11/1 gets on. Ladbrokes are 7/1. Maybe they have whispers from Ballydole

So my front line is fairly obvious – Kingdom, Shea, Dawn, Stubbs, Easy and Org.

Reserve line is harder but – Elusive Kate, Swiss Spirit, Magician, Riverboat Springs and Midnight Oil.

Will probably hit an O'brien Acc too especially those two slashed by Ladbrokes

Ascot Offers/Notes from last year

Sure more will come out but more for me if anything a few to remember. Interesting BV are fobbing off Hughes...

Ladbrokes

If your selection finishes second in any race from Royal Ascot between Tuesday 18th June and Saturday 22nd June 2013, we will refund your losing bet, as a free bet, up to £/€25.

Assume Willhill will do the same as always through RacingPost App.

BetVictor

Place a bet on any race at Royal Ascot and if Champion Jockey Richard Hughes finishes in the frame(placed) BetVictor will refund your net losses on the race up to £25 as a FREE BET!

Paddy Power

If Animal Kingdom wins the Queen Anne Stakes, we will refund all losing win single stakes on the race upto £100

Notes from last year:

·         Pipe - for staying races

·         Hannon - Second string horses. 2yr olds. Partnership with Hughes, non-handicaps, not above 1m2f and those that have come via Newbury, ridden by Dobbs or Hughes last time out. Not Moore

·         Fanshawe – Back all of his older horses

·         O’Briens horses who didn’t perform well last time at 2m tend to bounce back but not if over 17/2. Group 1 horses

·         Stoute – Avoid runners over 1m

·         Johnston – 1m2f-2m, lay if below, Group 3 horses best rated 96-103

·         Gosden – Lay handicaps, but look at Group 2s, fillies and mares Ribsdale and Sandringham

·         Bell - fillies and 3yr old handicaps

·         Morrison – handicaps especially those under 16/1

·         Wachman – 2 yr olds

·         Murtagh - over 1m, Group1, with Noseda, Fanshawe and Bell and partnered the horse before

·         Fortune - previous rides on a horse

·         Spencer - straight track only, lay on round track

·         Check previous Epsom form as a good indicator

·         Clear/Joint favourites coming from Curragh, Newmarkte, Newbury and Chester in non-handicaps only for Group 1 and 2 only 2 and 3 yr old only. Lay the other favourites

·         Royal Hunt Cup - Previous 5 winners got their RPR on polytrack- Dimension 10/1

·         Wokingham – winners have decent course form

·         All handicaps: Don’t back horses going from graded/listed down into handicap C1 and C2. Banded ‘ideal’ 8st8lb to 8st10lb band handicaps

·         All handicaps and 3 yr old handicaps from Haydock last run do well

·         3 yr old handicaps - those who stepped up in class do well

·         Group 1 - up/down 1 furlong, clear favourites do well, but lay runners who step up in class

·         Group 2 - those who contested previously in Group 2 don’t do well

·         Group races - Avoid runners from Goodwood and Windsor

·         Jersey Stakes, Queen Alexandra, Sandringham – Big price winners just outside top 2 in market

·         Buckingham Palace Stakes – Look for outsider

·         Draw – check impact after Day 1

·         Ribblesdale – Epsom Oaks favourite gone on to win 5 times

Bets 17/06/2013

Whozthecat! Whoztheman! I thought got done on the line but 14/1 happy days. Had an awesome week and hope it continues into Ascot.

Windsor 7.35 – Blue Jack 5/1 has solid from with Nocturn which ties in with Enrol. Happy to ignore Newmarket over inadequate trip and tough C2 race at Epsom

Windsor 8.05 – Shamdarley 11/4 ran with huge credit for a long way last time out. Cheekpieces and a lower mark are of interest

Windsor 8.35 – At the risk of not listening to Hughes again, Ducal 4/5

Bets 16/06/2013

There were some huge gambles landed yesterday and glad to say I was in on two of them. Kingsgate Choice and Body and Soul and at both at prices of 12/1 - SPs were half! Feel daft not listening to Hughes but at least I hedged. Was a good day in the end.

Salisbury 2.20 - Continuum 9/4 looks well treated. 3rd home in last race won of a mark of 76 on handicap debut in a c4 and Cont was giving over a stone due to weight allowance so as long as the weight-to-age allowance is not distorted then good chance.

Chantilly 2.45 - Pricewise Segal has gone for Silasol 5/1

Cork 3.45 - Fully expect Maarek 4/6 to win this.

Chantilly 4.05 - Park Reel

Doncaster 4.40 - The formlines to stick with here are clearly Nocturn/Enrol and Moviesta. That means Whozthecat 14/1 but doubts about Donny, Line of Reason 7/1 who is improving and not massively up in the weights so must have god chance and finally Threes Grand 20/1 who has to be forgiven for York and Chester (both specialist tracks) and can go far better than this price back at 6f and much better of in the weights that LOR. Cleary Mississippi has form with Enrol too but has been put up 6lb and too short even if justified market leader. The only thing i see against TG and LOR is their age which may tell, but worth the risk.

Bets 15/06/2013

Last race saver Smarty Socks and an impressive Montaser meant level pegging yesterday. Will try to avoid over punting today to save for Ascot but I know what will happen once I start going through em! Segal has gone for five today. Pricewise Selections:

Sandown 2.20 – Ashaad 7/1

York 2.40 – Maven 11/1, Clayton 10/1

Musselburgh 3.35 – Nero Emperor 12/1

York 3.50 – Body and Soul 14/1

Jeez York, Musselb’ and Sandown handicaps are minefields and I am not stepping into them, well, maybe a couple.

Musselburgh 1.55 – Go Nani Go 11/2 won easily last time out and still well treated. Acts well here like half the field!

Musselburgh 2.25 – Keep an eye out on the winner to frank either Bedale or Thunder Strike. Not betting just watching.

Sandown 2.20 – With old boy Segal on this one. Ashaad 7/1 was really impressive last time out and is I think well ahead of the handicapper.

Sandown 2.55 – Morawij 2/1 is proven at this level and course and looks decent. Surprised not shorter.

York 3.15 – Hughsey is really bigging up Baltic Knight so 25% on him but 75% on Ladys First 9/2. I’m only hedgin’ because of Hughes but otherwise Ladys First goes well here, in very good form and hopefully she can win at this lower grade.

Musselburgh 3.35 –Face The Problem 20/1 looks overpriced but then quite a few do. Just look at the last time FTP was in handicap races. Hamish McGonagall 25/1 is also interesting. Averagely handicapped but really excels here perhaps by a few pounds. Both of them run in decent graded races. I’m going to be naughty with this race only because a) I can but b) I’m only betting on a few races today. I don’t think Barnet Fair can turn the table on Kingsgate Choice 12/1 and last years winner is well in after a decent run and looks a big price Bajan Tryst 18/1. I really couldn’t order which one I like more. Could be a costly race!

York 3.50 – With old boy Segal on this with Body and Soul 14/1, but in true style always opt for a couple more and vote goes to Rivellino 12/1 and Odooj 16/1. The former is risky but I think is well handicapped but no C&D form whereas Haggas puts first time blinkers on Odooj and could be the key.

Musselburgh 4.10 – If Gandalak 4/1 gets an uncontested lead which looks likely then can win this

Well except for the 3.35 at Mussel have behaved myself J

Bets 14/06/2013

Shocker yesterday in the end. If I’m having to back several horses in a race it’s probably an indication I’m not overly confident. Noted.

York 2.00 – Royal Mezyan 2/1 form is strong enough but Wiki Tiki 16/1 looks overpriced when you tie up from line with Quator via Honey Meadow

York 2.30 – Stepping Ahead Evs ought to win again on this mark, but tempted with Top Notch Tonto 20/1. Mark is workable, goes well at York and a horse that can win on Heavy over a mile could if not averse to quick ground stay to extra distance.

York 3.05 – Surprise Montaser 7/2 ins not higher I the weigths, but if old By Blue Bajan 6/1 is still up to it, rates a danger. Not convinced about Martin C w/o a visor

York 4.10 – Silvanus and Ubetterbegood both 20/1 rock the Kingsgate Choice form which is once to stick with with Duke of Firenze in it. Wassem Faris 9/1 looks on a tempting mark. Goes very well here. In fact a fair few go well here. Hmm.

York 4.45 – Smarty Socks 6/1 to bounce back to form

Bets 13/06/2013

Going to have a quick lunch break look but before the first race starts:

Newbury 1.50 - Perhaps daft to take on this favourite but I am with two 20/1 shots. Alnawiyah 20/1 on old form and Bohemian Dance 20/1 - Stoute first time hood and similar form to the favoruite behind Banoffee

2.45pm update... Bohemain Dance was running on well then so happy with that. Few more for today:

Newbury 3.25 - This is really tough but will offer so many clues for future races. If the Talent form upholds then Lady Nouf ought to blitz this field, but again I'll take it on. Jathabah 20/1 to relight the Banoffee form and Butterfly McQueen 8/1 to continue franking the Telescope form through Space Ship. This form keeps giving.

Nottingham 4.10 - I bloody hate Dik Bos and I will, maybe foolishly take him on again. In fact Im taking on a couple of horses I have on my tracker including Tioman Legend and Forest Edge and I'm tapping Misplaced Fortune 14/1 and El Viento 12/1. Both run well over this distance and firmness and have been competitive of these marks in this class too. The problem I have is Nassau Storm who looks like he will come on for last run and eye catching jockey booking. Argh.

Nottingham 4.45 - Morpheus ought to win, but not backing odds on, especially with a New Approach debutant in this line up

Might check evening races later, if leave work at decent time.

5.00pm update...Argh pants afternoon – but a few more this evening.

Leopardstown 6.55 – No reason not to back Reply 11/10

Haydock 6.20 – Jordaura 7/1 solid C&D form and back down in class. Step up in distance doesn’t look like it should be a problem.

Haydock 8.20 – I know this is the wrong thing to do but I want to do it to prove to myself its’ wrong. This is a handicap not graded and Luhaif 25/1 surely can’t be well handicapped. I was hoping I’d learn from Valbchek at the weekend but he was a non runner. The way I see it is Luhaif finished uber close to Olympic Glory, Glory Awaits and Van Der Neer in previous runs and would beat them in a handicap based on their ratings, so why ought it to be different now? I know I will find out.

Ascot - Sat 22nd - Join the banter

I can't get any days of work next week, but if anyone wants to join the boozing and punting on Saturday, I'll be there pumping money.

Bets 12/06/2013

Glad I didn’t follow the money yesterday and stuck to initial thoughts. Didn’t touch the forecast after looking at the odds, but £20 not much to shout about.

Beverley 2.00 – Limegrove 4/7 ought to win, but one for an Acc rather than a single

Haydock 2.20 – I heart a long shot and Dubawi Phantom 33/1 and like two in this race. Using the Icebuster form DP definitely has work to do to get close to the places but hoping the additional aids can help. No reason why Now My Sun should be 1/3 of the price based on that form either so DP is the value. If the fav turns out then looks ahead of this field. Queen’s Estate 28/1 is going to switch back to ideal conditions again and the form behind Deai Sunrise and ahead of Saytara last year is very interesting but can understand the price with this one.

Haydock 3.50 – I don’t like the Mont Ras form anymore (I’ve written that – so better stick with that). Therefore Lord of The Dance 14/1 gets a vote based on C&D form but Hit The Jackpot 5/1 gets a bigger vote looking at form on fast ground over 8f. On a decent mark.

Haydock 4.20 – Sticking with the Icebuster 6/1 formline

Bets 11/06/2013

RIP Cecil. Too much jumps action going on for my liking.

Salisbury 3.00 – Kyllachy Rise Evs ought to use experience at high level to good use although Muthmir has been back from 7/1 into 2/1? Hmm forecast? Which way?

Bets 09/06/2013

Hmm. Segal popped up with a couple of beauties yesterday. Chester once again was good hunting ground for me but I had a number of really well backed horses flopping. The Germans did their country proud and I was worried about that. Pastoral Player got boxed in again, but irrelevant as was third day of profit in a row. Long may that continue!

Nottingham 3.45 - When Taurus Twins won this last year he had it all his own way upfront and made all. He won't have it his own way this year and could set the race up for Sir Maximilian 4/1

Perth 4.30 - Mumbles Head 11/2 to take this again. When Bowen has race specialists they are worth sticking with despite age. Plus is is smashing them in.

Auteuil 3.10 - Segal has tipped Serienschock 25/1. Guess he has to look for the value. Thousand Stars could win this 3 times in a row

Bets 08/06/2013

It’s been a decent two days and I hope it continues today. Seems to be a German horse in every race at Haydock today. Hope they don’t scupper me. Lastchancelucas finished a neck behind the favourite so even though he didn’t place he outran his price and I was right about the fact the difference in price between them was a joke. There are some mental big handicaps at Chester today and C&D runners with decent draws are the ones to focus one. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped 4 horses today:

Haydock 2.05 – Brockwell 12/1

Newmarket 2.55 – Nocturn 5/1

Newmarket 3.30 – No Heretic 5/1, Highland Castle 14/1

I have a lot of thoughts today!...

Haydock 2.05 – Sun Central 4/1 is on of my favs but also think Kiama Bay should not be 22/1. On a very very low winnable mark.

Newmarket 2.20 – Having watched Ehtedaam’s 3/1 last race I don’t think Nabucco can reverse the placings.

Haydock 2.40 – Prussian 9/2 is top rated and form is solid enough for me. I guess Nymphea is an unknown and the trainer is very bullish.

Chester 2.45 – Chooseday 18/1 hacked up over C&D last year. Gets same conditions again and only 4lb higher but does have a tough draw, which is why you have to back David O’meara’s Roker Park 7/1. Decent C&D winner and he is pissing winners. Finally getting on his bandwagon.

Newmarket 2.55 – Hugo Palmer landed a decent race with Khubala the other day and there was a lot of money floating around for it. Interesting that there’s money pouring in for Zero Money 18/1 (writing this 8pm day before). I’ve been mulling over Valbchek 14/1. It’s a handicap debut and I think his rating should be higher. Does that mean his well handicapped? Not sure. Will learn a lesson today.

Chester 3.20 – Area Fifty One 11/2 has the best form on show. Handles the track but there are a few dangers. Greeleys Love gets a huge 3year old allowance and so runs 2 stone less than AFO. An Cat Dubh looks a smart C&D performer and at Chester it’s all about them, but is running from out the handicap. Finally Haylaman who nearly landed me a phat double a couple of races ago but with the form line I’ll stick with AFO

Haydock 3.15 – Pastoral Player 3/1 ought to be same price as Eton Forever. PP had to check his run last time out. The ground is defo more in his favour and he won this last year.

Newmarket 3.30 – With Tom on this one. No Heretic 5/1

Haydock 3.50 – 3 year old do well in this with their allowance. Ladies Are Forever was 3^rd last year behind 2 of them and I reckon same again this year expect behind Hoyam 10/3 and City Girl 8/1 and hope it’s not Sandreamer

Beverley 4.20 – Class 5 race – what am I doing. Last Destination 8/1 either runs a blinder here or a total stinker. Lets hope for the former today.

Haydock 4.25 – I’m taking Zanetto as a bit of class and that’s why I picked City Girl. If CG wins Clancy Avenue 13/2 is my pick. Probably worth a double too. Professor is short and I think better at 7f.

Newmarket 5.15 – Maria’s Choice 2/1 has course distance and consistent form.

Bets 07/06/2013

Honey Meadow and Asian Trader provided a nice 70/1 double yesterday. Bosh. I would have been livid if Gladiatrix won. I no longer like the Mont Ras form

Newmarket 2.40 – 3 year old handicaps are so difficult because we just don’t know how much improvement each horse has, and so I’m always on the look out for handicap debutants on a mark I think is generous. Jubilante is the worthy favourite here but the one who looks on a decent mark, if has improved over the winter is Nardin 16/1. The form of Hoodna and Discernable is decent enough for this class. Hopefully will be ready on first run back.

Newmarket 3.10 – All roads point to Telescope here. Elkaayed who is bagging me winners, Glorious Protector who I’m angry with myself for not backing last time out all hold the form with Telescope. I’m still so gutted he didn’t run in the derby as he really would have had an amazing chance. Anyway, this is pretty tough, but I think Fledged 7/1 ran well on debut here and ought to improve and go close

Newmarket 3.45 – Highland Colori is probably the obvious choice but I would want a bigger price as more of and e/w punt. There are 4 on my shortlist so I’m just going to sack off. The main reason is Top Offer who could destroy the field, or not

I've saving my energy for tomorrow or maybe later this evening :)

4.30pm update. That was a pretty successful afternoon. A nice e/w double, but frustratingly I was too greedy to take a in hindsight decent price on Highland Colori who bolted up. A few for the evening...

Pontefract 7.05 - Will be brave with this one and call a reverse forecast on Orsippus and Mojolika

Pontefract 7.35 – The market is wrong here. It must be. I really don’t know why Hoofalong is favourite. And if he is then why the heck is LastchanceLucas 40/1? LCL beat Hoffalong, has won here and it’s easy to forgive a horse at York, but actually that was a tough race. He’ll be fitter today and I just can’t understand the price. The race will no doubt prove me wrong! The more realistic bet has to be Mayaasem 7/1. Solid C&D winner and solid handicap form.

Haydock 8.15 – I have to go with the BHA and their highest rated horse. Has a good draw, won at Haydock before and was in good enough form in Dubai. Medicean Man 8/1, although admittedly slightly tentatively because he hasn’t actually won at this level 

Bets 06/06/2013

Sandown 6.15 – Filly allowance on Honey Meadow 12/1 with form behind Quatour may be a tad big.

Sandown 6.50 – I was keen to back an outsider in this such as Rowe Park or Gladiatrix but Dettori might well open his account this season on Asian Trader 3/1. Looks well ahead of the handicapper.

Sandown 7.25 – Volcanic Wind 7/2 – I like the Mont Ras form, but this is another big handicap

Sandown 7.55 – Mutazamen 20/1 on old form on good ground

Bets 05/06/2013

Well my expectations yesterday were correct and both placed. Unfortunately I back the wrong outsider so the tricast was not landed, but still, a decent outcome.

Ayr 4.40 – Awake My Soul may well be a well supported winner but I can’t not back Scrapper Smith 10/1. Taking a massive step down in class and back onto a mark has won with before. Not forgetting his trainer has a 19% SR here (+£28)

Ripon 8.15 – I backed Yeeoow blindly last night at 7/2. Having looked at the card and having seen this formline slump I’m not so keen anymore and also never run at Ripon before, but I have backed him. Like a couple of days ago there were a number of horses being backed in the Wokingham prior to a pretty decent handicap at Ripon and it did not lie! So today York Glory and Duke of Firenze are the two. The only formline that I can see racing today related to that is Misplaced Fortune 10/1. Based on faster ground and last C&D no reason why should be 10/1.

Kempton 9.00 – Future Reference 5/1 looks a better horse at Kempton with 7f looking the right distance too. SBS is going well and his horses go well at the track.

Bets 04/06/2013

Just one race worth looking at; a handicap at Ripon.

Ripon 3.30 - Frontier Fighter may struggle from the draw. Ruth Carr and Dubai Dynamo 5/1 have a good record here and is in decent form. Lord Aeryn 7/1 also goes well here. They both have good draws and expect them both to be placed. No idea what's happened to St Mortiz 20/1. On best form, on the mark over C&D wins comfortably.

Bets 03/06/2013

So Epsom didn’t quite work out but Segal's Antepost on Ruler of The World @ 25/1 was a saving punt.

Leicester 2.15 – As I have a vested interest in Sea The Stars juveniles am keen to see how Juvenile Lead 10/3 performs

Leicester 3.45 – Tempted to take the favourite on here. The form of Elik and Liber has tailed off and the one I like provided is fit on reappearance is Sweetnessandlight 7/1.

Naas 3.05 – Reply 5/2 ran a blinder last time out.

Windsor 7.00 – Mince 4/5 is rated 8lb better than anything else in the field.

Windsor 7.30 – Form line test. Tropics was a nice easy winner for me last time out, and is up 6lb for that. He might need a few more pounds to qualify for the Wokingham. The other in that Yeeoow formline is Tioman Legend 8/1 who looked better than Tropics in that race and is therefore better value as running off the same weight and will be fitter after that run. I have no idea whether that’s the right formline to follow because Duke of Firenze was mighty impressive last time out franking that line too. That would put Steps 22/1 in with a huge shout here, but not sure ground and distance is ideal, but who knows. Khubala is interesting from his last race it took him a while to get going and then stayed on very well, but I’m going to pass over reluctantly despite a few pounds flying in for the Wokingham now. And lastly Poole Harbour. That form is also strong, but at 4/1 not interested, but might also explain why Gabrials Lad is being back for Wokingham today too. This will be a race to defo remember for Ascot, but am sticking with Tioman and Steps more for the prices

Bets 01/06/2013

Oh dear. Epsom whitewash. Most of my picks yesterday ran from the front and got massively picked off, so need to switch tactics although the ground is better today so it might be foolish to do so!

Epsom 1.35 – Has to overcome top weight but hope Space Ship 6/1 can

Musselburgh 2.20 – Justice Day 13/8 all day long

Epsom 2.40 – As much of a Dunaden fan as I am I can’t see SNA being beat. I never get it right with him and not worth it at 2/5

Doncaster 3.10 –Baltic Knight 7/1 has solid form and Willy will take off a valuable claim.

Epsom 3.15 – This is going to be one fast arse race with so many front runners. It has to be set up for a hold up horse. Swiss Cross has an amateur jockey onboard and I’m not sure this is the right thing to do, but at 50/1 on betfair it’s worth a bet. That Hamza race is strong but moreover the race where he flew home over C&D after a bad start. The two I have to be on the nose on are Captain Dunne 8/1 and Long Awaited 8/1. Both C&D winners. The former is on a really good mark. Both drawn high which seems to be favoured over the years.

Doncaster 3.45 – Poetic Dancer 12/1 will be fitter this time round and can reverse the placings with Mezzotoint but Born To Surprise 9/1 could go really close. Hard handicap.

Epsom 4.00 – If Dawn Approach get beaten it’ll be the distance. I’ve already backed Chopin and Mars Antepost and don’t really intend on betting on anything else. Will just watch and enjoy.

Doncaster 4.45 – Elkaayed 7/4 was an easy winner for me last time out. Harder race, but still holds that Telescope form which better than most, but it will be tactical and anything could happen

Epsom 4.50 – First Avenue 16/1 runs well here and on a decent mark. Sirvino is tempting as well but not sure on the price.

Epsom 5.25 – Baby Strange is on a low mark and was placed well enough last year. 33/1 may underestimate him as well as 33/1 about Another Try. On form Crew Cut 8/1 can continue to frank the Yeeoow form.

Lingfield 5.55 – All form points to Blhadawa 4/7

10.45am update... I’ve just checked Pricewise and we’ve agreed on two in the big handicap!!

Epsom 1.45 – St Paul De Vence 14/1

Epsom 3.15 – Captain Dunne 9/1, Swiss Cross 28/1

Epsom 4.00 – Galileo’s Rock 40/1