Bets 31/10/2013

Yesterday was bad, bad and bad.

Just a real quick go at this today. No big punts like yesterday!!!

Stratford 1.10 - Easy Beesy 1/3
Stratford 2.10 - Hayjack 5/2
Lingfield 2.20 - Horsted Keynes Evs
Stratford 2.40 - Snake Eyes 4/9
Lingfield 3.20 - Tempest Fugit 5/1
Sedgefield 3.30 - Talkin Thomas 7/2

Bets 30/10/2013

Orion Love was pants, and a bit frustrated with E Lady. But Firecruise and Tarquin pulled home so easy enough profit.

Notts 2.00 - Amulet 7/4. Saw this one yesterday afternoon and had it down as a banker. Looks wads ahead of handicapper. 6/4 still available but imagine won't last long. Has been tipped up all over the place today too so fingers crossed.

Kempton 6.40 - Never To Be 7/4. Again backed yesterday after watching a very easy handicap win over C&D last time. Just have to hope does not get stuck in traffic! New Row was the biggest danger I saw so had a small insurebet saver.

Bets 29/10/2013

Saint Cloud 1.50 – Using Treve as a formline Orion Love 10/1 beats Galvaun and Sparking Beam with Tasaday as a marker. So why Orion Love is 10/1 and those two are 2/1 and 3/1 respectively I’m not sure. Orion Love is in first time blinkers too so must be each way value with 3 places in an 8 horse race..

Yarmouth 2.40 – Firecruise 5/2 looks an obvious choice here, but another who looks well ahead of the handicapper in these conditions is Evacusafe Lady 8/1. I can’t see passed these two and took prices last night. The r f/c was 18/1 earlier. Looks like everyone has the same idea

Ffos Las 3.30 – Tarquin De Seuil 4/11 has only one danger. The fences on chase debut.

Bets 28/10/2013

Gutted missed all the racing at the weekend but glad Kingston Hill bolted up as the 40’s I took on betfair for the Derby are now looking immense. Australia still looks the one to beat at this point though. Triple Crown?

Naas 1.45 – Oscar’s Well 9/4 gets 7lb from Realt Mor as does Alderwood. With no McCoy on Alderwood I have to go with Oscars Well

Naas 2.15 – If Rule The World 13/8 is fit he wins. Simple. Morris horses not running well so you’d be cautious. 

Bets 25/10/2013

Flying out for the weekend. Had a quick look at Donny and gone for Desert Society 4/1 and Ty Gwr 7/4

Bets 23/10/2013

Newmarket 3.40 – Sudden Wonder 11/10 form form form – Pinzola

Newmarket 4.10 – If I back Sudden Wonder because of Pinzola then I’d be daft not to back Mujaz. Problem is a load of people have been looking forward to see Touch The Sky. Not sure if that is the same as they think is a decent horse though. Hmm

Kempton 5.50 – Pretty Bubbles 7/2

Kempton 6.50 – De Kock @ Kempton? Moonafraid 8/11? Heard a rumour about Steve Rogers though 12/1

Kempton 7.20 – Again only a whisper Ian’s Memory 11/8

Bets 22/10/2013

Yarmouth 3.20 – If John Best was in form I would be lumping on Berrahri 11/1 here. Rewind two races on soft ground where is runs behind Kingston Hill. This mark is lenient. I’ve backed him on betfair too as guaranteed to be hammered in the betting so a free back to lay bet. Iseemist can’t be out of it based on old form against Bedale Memory and Ventura Mist

Yarmouth 3.50 – Green Howard 9/2 has some solid form to name at the moment and ignore last as had a daft draw and is not a hold up horse at the back. Jason will put that right. I’m just wondered whether Gatepost is the better bet or not though.

Yarmouth 4.20 – NAP goes to Stomachion 6/4 who looks miles ahead of the handicapper

Bets 21/10/2013

Nice easy Trixie yesterday.

2.50 Plumpton - Old Boy Doheny Bar 9/2 can prove C&D form is crucial
3.20 Plumpton - I'vebeenthinking 4/1 can defy penalty
4.20 Plumpton - Ballyculla 3/1 looks on a decent mark
4.50 Plumpton - Rocky Elsom 16/1

Bets 20/10/2013

Olympic Glory and the Farhh/CDA forecast really bailed me out yesterday. Not what I expected to happen. If I would have reproduced the flat stakes over jumps I’d be laughing. But I didn’t. Anyhow just a few quick ones today:

Kempton 2.45 – Dodging Bullet. Bets Hurdler by far. Hopefully can reproduce over fences

Kempton 3.20 – Sea Lord 5/6 miles ahead of everything else

Kempton 3.50 – Segal has picked Surburban Bay 7/2

Kempton 4.25 – The New One 4/6 – I’m still gutted I didn’t cash in at Chelts. Gutted

There’s a Nicholls Acc on the cards too.

Naas 3.15 – Segal has picked Uleavemebreathless 10/1

Cork 3.55 – Segal has picked Runwiththewind

Bets 19/10/2013 - Champions Day 2013

I’ve had a pretty poor run up to today, but hopefully all change today and all the big fancies bolt up. Segal does not think that will happen but that’s his job. His picks today are:

Ascot 1.45 – Pale Mimosa 20/1

Ascot 2.20 – Jack Dexter 6/1, Cape Approval 20/1

Ascot 4.05 – Morandi 14/1

Ascot 4.45 – Intrigo 25/1

I can see the rationale is some of Segal’s choices today but I think the outcomes might be more obvious like they have been in previous years. Class will prevail. Guess have to watch out for Johnny M too…

Ascot 1.45 – Harris Tweed is top rated and Azeemah and Estimate both finished a neck ahead of Simenon (as a marker). However, Estimate 9/4 has been aimed for this, she is a Ascot specialist, her form at the distance is the best and I backed her Ante Post but I’m going in again. A G1 winner in a G3 race with no penalty

Ascot 2.20 – I somewhat understand the rationale behind Jack Dexter, but the races he has won he should have won, the ones he was not top rated he hasn’t and again today he comes up against last years winner Maarek 3/1 who is in blinding form and 4lb clear on BHA ratings. I saw the race he lost against Cape of Approval. That wasn’t him and he has conditions to a tee today. The price may drift a bit as Segal has tipped up Dexter.

Ascot 2.55 – Dalkala is class yes and was a nice winner for me in the Middleton but not sure about trip, and with a 3 year allowance Talent 7/2 surely has the best form in the race.

Ascot 3.30 – No Frankel, No Excelebration. Hardest race at Ascot to sort out so far. 3year old allowance ought to be the key here. Maxios on paper looks very strong, however Dettori was warned by Hughes about going downhill with Olympic Glory and Hughesy was right. Back to a flat track and Olympic glory was pretty close to Dawn Approach in the Coventry. No idea what has happened to Dawn Approach. At the prices it has to be Olympic Glory 5/1 but a bit of a cop out in that if Dawn Approach is back to best will be hard to beat. I wonder whether the ground will go against him though and play to OG. Might forecast DA/OG @13.27 as saver

Ascot 4.05 – 3 year old don’t have a good record in this. I’m a huge fan of Farhh and the Lockinage was easy money, but there was no CDA in that race. CDA 6/4 has won this race and has got closer to Frankel than any other horse and these conditions are perfect for him. Ruler of the World has been well backed and it’s interesting Ladbrokes are the shortest on him. You know what that means…but, it’s generally only true when the fave. Argh, Farhh, hmm. Might forecast FAR/CDA @8.13 as saver

Ascot. 4.45 – 3 I like in this. Boots and Spurs in good form and goes on soft. Jack’s Revenge goes well at Ascot and best form in race by far. Fils Anges as have backed so many times now won’t give up today.

On to Chelts. I need to get back into this. Am excited. Will back more than I should so can relearn the game!

Chelts 2.00 – Aerial 6/1 was a very good chaser and based on that stick him up in this sphere.

Chelts 2.35 – Finger on the Pulse 25/1 gets a sweet 10lb allowance. Vulcanite 6/1 looks on a decent mark and got a hugely hampered last time out. Missed out on two big Vino Griego 16/1 wins last year. Tempting.

Chelts 3.10 – Sametegal 9/4 clear on ratings and Nicholls reckons best chance today.

Chelts 3.45 – Sire Collonges 16/1 on a decent mark, Balthazar King 6/1 is in very good nick, Life of Lusso 33/1 a nice outsider and Conncetivity 20/1 well handicapped on hurdles form

Chelts 5.00 – Balder Success has a penalty so am with Dark Lover 2/1

Chelts 5.35 – Trickaway 16/1

Bets 18/10/2013

Chelts 2.10 – Yes yes yes the jumps are nearly back. There are some very good novice hurdlers here. Pure Science 3/1 was one for the notebook last year and the market also seems to think has a chance despite having no experience. I’ll dosh out my first AP bet on the Neptune Chelts 2014 40/1.

Chelts 2.40 – On paper Third Intention wins by 7 lenghts. Desai Jnr is not having it and is convincing me Rebel Fitz is the one to be one. I’ve seen his last few races and he has won them so so easily. However he has beaten noting of note. Third Intention on the other hand running with the likes of Captain Conan and Dynaste. And impossible to write Tarquin De Seuil off. A horse who finished very close to My Tent or Yours. I’m not touching a 3 horse race. And won’t cry if don’t double money on RF.

Haydock 2.55 – I’m sticking with these Nurseries. I love them even though are hard to solve. I’m keen on the favourite here – Meadway 4/1. I have him rated at least 8lb higher than the BHA.

Chelts 3.15 – I tried to stay away. I could not find a big price. The market looks right with Captain Sunshine 4/1 and Viking Blond 8/1 at top of it.

Chelts 4.25 – Lac Fontana 4/6 is a couple leagues above anything in this

Haydock 5.10 – Modern Tutor 10/3 might get done by a 3yr old but willing to take the risk that Moore will win the race. Strong form

Caulfield Cup – Segal has gone for Dandino 9/1. Quest for Peace 33/1 worth a nibble I reckon.

Bets 17/10/2013

Nearly a clean sweep yesterday. Had Lucky Landing and Grandad's Horse on my shortlist so annoyed for scrapping them!

Wincanton 4.20 - Moon Prince 9/4
Uttoxeter 5.00 - Sliver Dragon 11/4

Bets 16/10/2013

Lingfield 2.00 - Outback 15/8
Lingfield 2.30 - Black S 6/4
Notts 3.45 - Proximate 11/8

Bets 13/10/2013

Ladbrokes were once again vindicated for avoiding War Command. They are rarely wrong with the Ballydole faves in top races. Was the only thing that once again saved me from embarassement. I lost the plot yesterday and lumped £600 on Accs. All lost! No idea how Scatter Dice did that either.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has picked 3 today. Missed the prices again though!

Curragh 4.40 – Time For Action 14/1, Montefeltro 12/1

Limerick 4.50 – Spring Heeled 9/1

A few punts today:

Ffos Las 2.15 – Midnight Minx 2/1

Pardubice 3.30 – Orphee Des Blins 7/4

Goodwood 3.40 – Nordic Quest 10/3

Curragh 4.05 – Sir Walter Scott

Curragh 4.40 – Victory Song 25/1, Celestial Prospect 25/1

Goodwood 5.15 – Empress Ade and Squire Osb both look really well handicapped and Thomas Hob was unlucky to bump into Battalion last time. The tricast pays around 60/1

Ffos Las 5.30 – Solstice Son 6/4

Goodwood 5.45 – Sir Mike 12/1

Bets 12/10/2013

City Zen just prevailed yesterday and as my big bet was happy. Glad I was not mislead by the market. Graphic and Lahaag meant I was in the blue but generally all my other single bets were useless!

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for 3 today and all of them are on my shortlist!

Newmarket 2.05 – Trumpet Major 14/1

York 3.30 – Baccarat 8/1

Newmarket 3.50 – Tiger Cliff 12/1

Going to have to jump on the jumps bandwagon today after watching the boys land a heap of favs:

Chepstow 2.25 – Keltus

Chepstow 3.00 – Killala Quay

Okay back to the flat…

York 1.50 – Seek Again 4/1 form stands out by a long way and King George River 10/1 must be a threat with strong C&D form

Newmarket 2.05 – 3year olds have dominated this race. There’s only 1 today. 1 that cost me a nice double. Darwin 10/3. The Gordon Lord Byron form stands out too and so many of O’Briens horses are victorious in headgear, BUT I just think at the price and the ground you can’t back him with confidence and on collateral form Ansgar beats him and is 16/1. Also it’s tricky when you see Amarillo 11/1 who has put Libranno in his place and got somewhat close to Moonlight Cloud. Hmm

York 2.20 – First Mohican 6/1 must be one of the big bets of the day. Back in handicap company form is really strong

Newmarket 2.35 – Great White Eagle 5/2 looks decent but Supplicant 9/1 and interesting outsider

Newmarket 3.10 – I’m a big Outstrip fan, and although the War Command 11/8 form has not really worked out Ladbrokes are telling me not to get on the wrong side of War Command

York 3.30 – Baccarat 6/1 a decent horse. Ancient Cross and Hallelujah might be of interest with strong course form and current form

Newmarket 3.50 – Tiger Cliff, Tiger Cliff, Tiger Cliff, despite the tough draw. On paper L Miller beats him at the weights but I think Tiger is still improving and will further with step up. Could back loads of these but the only other one I will back is Earth Amber who looks on an okay mark and has a decent draw

Newmarket 4.25 – All form points to Lightening Thunder Evs

Newmarket 5.25 – Could be a decent day for O’Brien. Alfonso De Sousa looks big 10/1 and Ladbrokes again think so too

Bets 11/10/2013

A few days away in the sun will hopefully have revived my selection process as last Saturday was a travesty. Like many can’t believe didn’t back Treve in the Arc. I got my money back on Orfevre (e/w) and lost some AP bets too, but landed a ridic bet by Willhill about a foreign horse winning the Arc 5/1 so about even.

Deasi jnr has been nailing the jumps in last week, so will take him up on the Letterpress and Kangaroo Court 15/1 double.

Was not going to bet today but Fats has convinced me without trying….I’ve ignored draw but either way this is SERIOUSLY tricky for a Friday!

York 2.00 – A mental race to try and pick a winner. Makin the Rules 8/1 is clearly consistent handles York, the distance, the ground and gets a decent claimer so has a decent chance. The Hooded Claw 8/1 is MILES ahead of the handicapper based on effort in listed race last time out, but there’s no market confidence and didn’t handle York last time, so I have to bet but only a small saver. Bahamian C 25/1 could be well handicapped based on first race but recent form not great and the only one at a big price is Mr Matthews 25/1. Handles York, form is pretty strong.

York 2.30 – Pearl Blue 8/1 is an obvious pick as was a comfortable winner in this race last year and only 3lb higher. Lady Gibraltar 16/1 ran out of her skin in a Listed race last time out and if this race is not too soon is certainly in with a shout as goes well here and with Kieran onboard Jarvis must think has a chance. Pabusar 16/1 runs out of skin every time he runs at York as if the first time headgear sharpens him up and the ground is not too soft then has a great chance. I’ve leaving Above Standard out as Pabusar ought to turn the tables now.

York 3.05 – Graphic is clearly the likely winner but surely too short. Haggas is still in good form and has an immense record at York. There are a few at interesting prices though as a result of having a strong favourite. Justonefortheroad 20/1 is 16lb lower (with claimer) than when 3.5lengths behind Navajo Chief in a Listed handicap over C&D. In first time blinkers to get him back on track. Brae Hill is slightly tempting as is hit and miss but goes well at York and finished very strongly in the same race. Another in the same who might have a sneaky chance is Andereigo 16/1. No surprise to see him bounce back to form with Fallon onboard.

York 3.40 – I think I’m being stupid but I really don’t get why City Zen 9/4 is not the favourite here. The form is best my a mile and ran a blinder here at York behind Hot Streak who won a G3 by 5 lengths last week?

York 4.15 – Wow too many formlines for me to really solve but Martin Chuzzlewit 14/1 has to be up here. Runs very well here, decent form and the drop in trip might be the answer today. Another with decent form, course form and down in the weights is Saptapadi 20/1. Elhaame is tempting but the only other I’ll got with is Lahaag 10/1 in the hope can see out the trip.

Bets 05/10/2013

All my pops failed yesterday except my max bet lump job which is always a bonus as £20 on the losers but half a g on the banker. It also makes you wonder whether if you’re not that confident about the others should you really be betting! Hmm. Anyway Segal has gone for loads today which doesn’t always bode well, but with the form he is in who am I to judge J. Tom Pricewise Segal picks today:

1.30 Longchamp - Darbadar 7/1

2.08 Longchamp – Siyenica 14/1

2.40 Ascot – Gospel Choir 6/1

3.30 Redcar – Trading Profit 12/1, Ohama Gold 40/1

3.50 Ascot – Ascritpion 8/1, Shamaal Nibras 25/1

My thoughts later…

12.30pm update..NOT AN EASY DAY

Ascot 1.30 – Last night when I looked at this I was all over Rocky Ground 12/1 but form some reason I thought the ground would be quick. Clearly it’s not. If Eton Rifles is fit, and that’s a tough ask, he wins hands down. Definightly 25/1 looks too big but not sure good enough to win and previous winners Free Zone and Doc Hay both last time out winners must have the best chances. This is wide open in summary. Even old boy Judge must have a chance today along with Masamah who I’ve backed a few times. No idea but just wasted 20 minutes on this! D’oh.

Ascot 2.10 – A chance Extortionist 5/1 may not like the ground but he won the Windosr over C&D and the form is sound. Looks to be the best form on show

Newmarket 2.20 – It’s a 2yr old race so anything might improve but on paper Toofi 4/1 looks strong

Ascot 2.50 – I’m somewhat with Segal on this. I’ve always liked him and he won me a big pot last week. The ground has to be the key to solving this and if it is really as slow as the 8.30am report suggests then I suggest staying away from the obvious ones and have a think about Mijhaar 8/1. Will like the ground, fresher than the whole field and I don’t think there is another front runner in this so can dictate from front

Newmarket 2.55 – Mister Music 15/2 back in handicap company can go well, but is doubts about whether likes Newmarket

Ascot 3.15 – Morache Music 22/1 always runs a stonker at Ascot and is in decent enough form so the price is big, but again I think for him to win he needs to get passed Soul and Hoof It.

Redcar 3.30 – Emirates Flyer 7/1 has to be up there on form and not giving up on Azagal 16/1 just yet, but Deeds Not Words 20/1 might be a surprise if continues to improve

Ascot 3.50 – With Segal on this. Ascription 8/1 ought to bolt up again. Still a handful ahead of the handicapper. However so is Big Johnny D and Anaconda. Pastoral Player won this couple years ago so might not be out of it either!

Newmarket 4.10 – Jathabah 16/1 looks a big price considering one of the only ones who has run really well at the course. Drop back in trip looks like might be a the right answer

Ascot 4.25 – Nargys finally repaid my faith last time out. Might struggle today mind as 7lb worse off with Switcher who is 10/1 and Enrol 7/2 who has much stronger form.

Gowran Park 4.40 -  Desai Jnr called Sizing Europe his banker. Perhaps the likely winner, but 2 years ago Rubi Light 8/1 would have thumped Sizing if not for falling, so represents the value. Sizing is 11 years old now too…

Newmarket 4.45 – Winning Express 4/1, although whenever Johnny onboard you have to take notice and he is on the fav Mince. Hmm.

Newmarket 5.15 – Ajman Bridge 6/4 went in on a decent mark. Made it count last time and can shrug off another 8lb

Bets 04/10/2013

A number of interesting races at Ascot but nothing I can back with confidence so gone for a few other races instead of the big ones.

Fontwell 2.40 – Virginia Ash 11/4. On the Tizzard bandwagon

Ascot 4.15 – Perfect Heart 13/2 lightly raced, first time head gear for a trainer in form. Mark is more than winnable if stays the trip.

Ascot 4.50 – Going for a Varian double on Horsted Keynes 5/1

Dundalk 7.45 – Afonso De Sousa 13/8

Wolves 7.55 – Living The Life 6/4 was given a bad ride last time. Filly got tired all out alone up front when miles ahead. With Jamie onboard surely banker of the day. Lump.

Bets 02/10/2013

Notts 2.30 – Merletta 1/2 – Noseda would be luckless if she didn’t win today as has come up against some decent sorts. The 3 newcomers are big prices so probably not fancied and those that have run have nothing on paper to Merletta

Salisbury 2.50 – Pipping Rock 6/4 looked a decent maiden. Bred by Dubawi you’d hope ground won’t be an issue. Hope Johnston doesn’t screw me again!

Salisbury 4.30 – Figure of Speech looks strong on this ground. 8/13 Isurebet 2 places, might tempt me more with a safety blanket as Justice Day form with Lightening Thunder now stacks up to Miss France, although Miss France routed that and was different ground.

Bets 01/10/2013

Ayr 2.10 - Love a good old Nursery. Trinity Lorraine 12/1 looks on a decent mark and get a nice 5lb claim. Had a bad start last time.

Kempton 6.50 - Another Nursery punt but less confident this time. Starlight Princess 6/1. Will appreciate step up and can win in this class of this mark.