Bets 30/03/2024 - Dubai World Cup 2024

Backed some of these during the week. Some price changes. Gunning for Seemar to have a decent night.

11.30 - Race 1- Dubai Kahayla Classic (Group 1) - Dirt - Asfan Al Khalediah 5/6 

Can't see it beat. The fc with Tilal Al Khaldiah seems a cert too, with maybe Alarqam or Rb K in 3rd.

12.05 - Race 2 - Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Emaar (Group 2) - Dirt - Saudi Crown or Isolate should win this even from rubbish draws as these two are pretty far ahead on ratings and so wouldn't be surprised if was a 1-2. That said, I can't back either at the prices nd likely speed they are going to set off at and the one I pop for is:

Walk of Stars 12/1ew - There is going to be a lot of speed and from this draw WoS can sit behind the lead and then use it's stamina to power pass :) Given stays the extra distance this might be valuable for a pace that might collapse. Finished 3 lengths ahead of Clapton (Rated 112) and 10 lengths ahead of 100+ rated horses in a G2 lto, so is a case to suggest that it's rated higher than 107. Eastern World 50s and Qareeb 25s are not the worst bib ews shot I've seen,. If there were 4 places I'd have back Qareeb 25/1ew.

12.40 - Race 3 - Dubai Gold Cup Sponsored By Al Tayer Motors (Group 2) - Turf - Could back half a dozen of these all towards the top end of the market. Trawlerman top on ratings, but ran so badly in this last year. Elder Eldrov, Tower of London, Siskany and Giavellotto all have strong formlines with each other and could make a case for any of them. However, what's done it for me is watching Siskany lose it last year. Therefore I want a horse that will 100% stay the trip and a bit more, so for me its:

Coltrane 6/1ew - With 5 places on offer at 6/1 I'd be really surprised if worst case was money back. Best runs I think have come on fast ground and Balding is on fire atm as is Oisin. Stamina going to be key.

1.15 - Race 4 - Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi Developments (Group 1) - Turf - California Spangle and Casa Creed solid on paper. I can't back Spangle who has just raced on one track all it's career no matter what the ratings say. Casa is surely not a 6f horse. A couple of solid 3year olds in Star of Mystery and Frost at Dawn who at the weights should win. Star's last run was a worry and I think FaD is a better 5f horse so plumping for:

Danyah 12/1ew. Won this race last year. Lto ran a blinder without cover an a poor draw. My biggest worry is actually Crowley. Only a 6% SR at Meydan.

1.50 - Race 5 - Uae Derby (Group 2) - Dirt - Hmm. I was backing Killer Collect in this race, but is a NR. Two AoB unknown on dirt is a worry for me. Autobahn is interesting at a big price given proximity to KC, Guns and Glory also decent. With the blinkers on is gona go try make all again. Forever Young probably wins this and wins well, so will stick in an acca, but I'm going with:

Mendelssohn Bay 9/1ew. Massive step up last time and given family have broken the track record and won this race and the gold cup, I really think/hope we'll see another massive step up. 

2.25 - Race 6 - Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Nakheel (Group 1) - Dirt - I think Tuz has got the draw to go win this. The difference between tonight and other festival races is of course the speed upfront. So many of these are going to battle it out. I can't work out what will happen, so will pick two:

Tuz 8/1ew - To make all. Has the draw to get a start on some of these, but I don't know enough about many of these Jap/US horses.

Mouheeb 20/1ew - Pick up the pieces. Decent win for me lto. Looks solid. The draw is dire and normally I stay clear, but given 4 or 5 of these will try to make all something could come flying down the outside (like Mouheeb). 

3.10 Race 7 - Dubai Turf Sponsored By Dp World (Group 1) - Turf - Do Deuce is the best horse in the race for sure, but this is 9f and not 11/12f so it is still the best? Hmm. Surely should have run in the Sheema? Maybe scared? Dunno, anyway for me it's too odd, even though I'm sure will probably win. The two Gosden horses are very good but the draws bother me. I backed Luxembourg last week at 14s, but I'm not sure I agree with it anymore. Was on a whim. Have two fancies in this:

Voyage Bubble 12/1ew.  Backed earlier in the week. The form is ridic behind Golden Sixty and Romantic Warrior.

Catnip 66/1ew - The form behind Warm Heart not to be sniffed at. Lemaire is decent around here and trainer send 1 horse here before and won. Was a 6/4 fave but nonetheless. Draw is decent. I hope for a place with this.

4.00 - Race 8 - Longines Dubai Sheema Classic - Turf - If Auguste has trained on then this will be some race. Liberty Island and Emily Upjohn with AR could be something to behold

Auguste Rodin 11/4

Justin Palace 12/1ew - I seem to have backed this last week and not written notes on why....

4.35 - Race 9 - Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (Group 1) - Dirt - Laurel River will make all and hopefully Derma Sotogake will catch.

Derma Sotogake 4/1

Laurel River 12/1ew

Bets 29/03/2024

 A very quick look at Newcastle. Seriously tough I think.

2.25 - Cross The Tracks 11/1ew

3.35 - Misty Grey 20/1ew

4.10 - Storm Catcher 9/1ew

4.40 - Greatgadian 9/1ew

Bets 24/03/2024

 Navagio should have won. No doubt with a better trip. Crossbar day, but decent enough profits. Poor racing today so gone half stakes on everything

Donny 3.05 - Bernado O'Reilly 7/1, Parisiac 25/1ew

Donny 3.40 - Stressfree 4/1, Percy Shelley 33/1ew

Naas 2.35 - La Filemena 9/2

Naas 3.10 - Bid for Chester 8/1ew

Naas 3.45 - Janoobi 5/1

Bets 23/03/2024

THE FLAT IS BACK!!!!

1.20 Donny - Grey's Monument 9/1ew. For me looks the one who is potentially still progressive. Decent distance winner lto.

1.50 Donny - Atherstone Warrior 16/1ew. Managed to back this before got hammered.

2.25 Donny - Thunder Roar 8/1ew. Solid C&D two race back. Decent draw. Spencer onboard. Had a prep run

3.00 Donny - Orazio 3/1

3.35 Donny - Navagio 25/1ew. Do you ignore the fact this beat a 102, 98, 104 horses when two of them also had 7lb claimers and carried nearly a stone less? No.

Bets 15/03/2024

 Again no more than 20mins spent on this. Worked out okay yesterday with this much time :)

1.30 - Tough unless you have some info

Backed Bunting 7/1ew lto and was keen on it so give it another go

Salver 33/1 Antepost

2.10- Do you just back Skelton blindly? hmmm

Mr Freedom 40/1ew massive chance of placing

Bialystok 14/1ew was surely going to win lto

2.50 - 

Captain Teague 8/1ew - festival form

3.30 - Be surprised if GDC doesn't win.

Given the ground is merked Nassalam 33/1ew or 12/1 w/o GDC is very tempting

4.10 - It's on the Line 6/4

4.50 - Which JP horse?

I actually backed River Etel 20/1ew last night. Backed it in this race last year. Not convinced can win, but small chance. Been hacked in 10/1 and not sure would back it now

5.30 - Waterford Whispers 7/2

Bets 14/03/2024

 lol. Gave up on Captain Guiness at 30/1 cos of ground and wins. Saved me for sure after Day1. Couple good places in the handicaps and a straight forecast. 

Really not had time to look today :( but most AP bets are today.

1.30 - Zanahiyr 16/1ew - Decent chelts form. Elliot good record in race. I backed Ikoro 10/1 AP, but prefer Zana today. Money also for it.

2.10 - Emitom looks a good ew price. Goath Chuil 8/1ew cost me about £9k not winning last time out in an yankee. Will keep the faith

2.50 Envoi Ellen 3/1. Backed Stage Star 14 AP

3.30 Noble Yeats 14/1 AP but will back Teahupoo 7/4 today

4.10 - Given all the talks of plots Ciel De Neige 140s could be one of them, but more likely regressed massively. Crebily is chucked in on paper but gosh is very short. Probably a small bet on it.

Shake 'em Harry 10ew

4.50 - Jade De Grugy 2/1

5.30 - Daily Present 14/1ew for the Nolan double :)

Creibily / Inothewayurthinking ew double also

Facile Vega, Envoi Ellen, Jade De Grugy worth doubles and treble

Bets 13/03/2024

 There you go then. Don't pay attention to a whole jumps season and get white washed. Standard. Not much more hope for today. Looks pretty lame from a betting pespective

1.30 - 

Don't see what could beat Ballyburn 2/5. For some reason I have a bet on Mercurey at 160/1 on the exchanges antepost. No idea why.

2.10 - 

Montys Star 13/2ew. 

Fact To File/Monty Star SFC

2.50 - 

Looked at this briefly antepost and locked in Built By Balimore ew when was 14/1. Didn't back it. FFS. 3/1 now. Jokes. Hmm

Built for Balimore 3/1

Shanbally Kid 18/1ew

3.30 - 

Had backed Captain Guineas at 30/1AP, but on this ground I'd give up. El Fabiolo 2/5 should win

Cross Country was on a big priced double with Minella Indo. AHHHH

4.50 - 

Sant Roi 7/1

Path D;oroux 10/1

5.30 - 

Jalons D 4/1

Bets 12/03/2024

 Couple decent winners at Meydan again but also a lot of decent places and a couple of them were very annoying...

I've had minimal AP bets at Chelts this year. Just not into the jumps this season. Also been punting Crypto hard last 6 months which means not paid too much attention to what's going on.

Let's see how badly I go as I have zero buzz this year on it....

1330 - Tullyhill 3/1. I think the ground will be worse than soft and so this is best proven from my perspective.

1410 - My Mate Mozzie 12/1ew. Not gone to the Grand Annual. Maybe as Cromwell already has that wrapped up with PathD'O. Or because has a live chance here. Gaelic back in trip. Hunters and IET average runs at festival last year. Found a Fifty was close enough to IET lto and My Mate Mozzie not that far off FaF and was really staying on at the last. Ground may be a slight worry but race looks open so why not at 12/1

1450 - The Goffer 7/1, Eklat De Rire 20/1

1650 - Latin Verse 14/1, Eagle Fang 20/1, Mordor 50/1

1730 - Salvador Ziggy 8/1 (Antepost), Apple Away 9/1

Bets 08/03/2024

 1405 - Mezzontinto 9/2 - Plum draw and ran well enough from a wide draw behind Kafoo and well enough over too far behind Nyaar lto to have a decent chance. 

1440 - Backed a number of these this season. Think backed Law of Nature twice now so be fuming if this wins. I just watched last race back and Poster Paint looks better value than Law of Nature. Had a wide draw last time. Is going to surely try and make all again. My concern is if Crowley tries to make all with Mostawaa who is 7lb lower then when running behind Franz K and Laser Guided last year. Can it win. hmm. Maybe value with 5/6 places. The other who looks a massive price is Aeonian. Does need a clear passage so all down to Chavez and some luck. Backed Algeron last time out also but was so keen. Still think Poster Paint the one to beat, but Aeonian makes an interesting fc. Small on Mostawaa

Poster Paint 12/1/, Aeonian 28/1, Mostawaa 22/1

1515 - Surely between Destructive and Guns and Glory. That said Elyabri won me a decent 40/1 few weeks back and could easily make all again. Fayadh at 25s is also potentially decent. Hmm. Just leaving it. If Destructive was drawn better would have taken it, but 9/4 bit short for me

1550 - Nibras Angel step down in class, running behind 100+ horses. Assume Tadhg got first choice and picked Nibras Passion, but this 5lb claim going to make the difference. Have to back King Of Time who backed lto. Hammered in the betting, but poorly away.

Nibras Angel 8/1, King of Time 11/1

1625 - No interest

1700 - Chandigah ran a blinder lto, but stable form worrying me. One of the cliff horses Batwan has been dropped 7lb... Now or never.

Chandigah 12/1, Batwan 20/1

1735 - Triple Venture 10/1, Border Edge 11/2

610 - Jumairia Bay 16/1, Andreas Vesaius 7/1

Bets 02/03/2024

 Much better, but no handicaps this week :( boooo

1205 Meydan - Interesting that Appelby is starting to have a few losers now, but Cinderalla's Story is so far ahead of anything else not worth taking on with some potential unknowns. No bet at 2/11 though.

1240 Meydan - Not easy. The current form of all these trainers is shocking. I backed Laurel River lto but really didn't show much, even if was after a lay off. Could easily improve but tough draw to do if from. Backed Hypothetical lto as well for  a decent win, but was hard work but also might improve for it. Southern Artist looks a decent one as an improver but with Spencer booked on a round track, not for me. Sound Money is the most interesting back up in trip and probably the likely winner. Celtic Prince a massive price for a place. However going for:

Hypothetical 11/2ew

Celtic Prince 100/1ew

115 Meydan - Struggle to see how Star of Mystery loses this. I really wanted Equality to show up last time but not sure what happened. Put very small stakes on it today as I still believe this is the perfect C&D for it. Spencer onboard is very interesting. Last chance though

Star of Mystery 4/5 

Equality 9/1 small

150 Meydan - Was backing Simca Mille in this, but a NR. Not sure which of the 3 Appelby winner wins. Castle Way may actually want further. Warren Point who won at decent odds lto is stepping up in trip and unknown. Bold Act won really well in the Sycamore Stakes so going with this.

Bold Act 7/2

225 Meydan - Nevershow Weakness back again but in tougher company and harder draw. Aldous Huxley is really tempted. Was 6/1 after a two year lay off and ran a great middle race. Hmm I'm leaving this

310 Meydan - Vafortino is the best horse in the race

Vafortino 3/1

345 Meydan - Rawy 9/2

420 Meydan - Legend of Time is far too short, 2/11 like Cindrella. Wouldn't even bother doubling them.

Athan 10/1ew if by some miracle LoT flops. Maybe the sfc is better.

Couldn't find many bigs ews today at Meydan

2.17 Kelso - Personal Ambition 7/2

2.50 Kelso - Under Control 3/1