Bets 29/10/2012

OuCh. 5 bets and 5 losers yesterday. Not cool. Can't explain any of them. Few today:

Leicester 2.20 - Shamaal Nibras 5/2. Easily the best handicapped horse in the race. 3yr old dominate this race, so fingers crossed. Might be a double bet, but not sure if this is me chasing losses.

Leicester 3.50 - Hughes double on Model Pupil Evs. Was excited by this horse in Spring. Hopefully the break won't be a problem and class will shine through.

There are a number of horses that I want to back over jumps, but I should just hold out for a couple more weeks!

Total Staked £120.00, Total Returned £0.00

£60.00 Shamaal Nibras 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Model Pupil Evs - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Shamaal Nibras, Model Pupil Double N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 28/10/2012

Wow. A lesson in not to bet during the season transition. Not done the maths yet but I reckon I burnt about £400. I lumped on Kingsbarns like I said I would I also then saw the carnage unfolding and lumped £500 on Famous Name. So the blows were lessened, but not massively. I had around 7 horses come in second place as well which is uber annoying, but such is the punting bazar. My antepost on O’Brien being top jock will pop in soon so that will allow me to the flat season on a high!

Aintree 1.10 – Will take a chance Son of Flicka doesn’t like Aintree. Vendor 6/4 looks a solid fav, but Skint 14/1 runs very well fresh and could be the one to be on. If there is a market for Skint w/o Vendor that’s the place to go.

Aintree 2.15 – First Fandango 6/4

Aintree 2.50 – Lovcen 7/2 – Beat Fingal Bay on last appearance. If goes well fresh should win

Aintree 3.25 – Merrion Square 3/1 – Well handicapped using Tiger O’T as a marker

Total Staked £90.00, Total Returned £0.00

£30.00 First Fandango 6/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Merrion Square 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Lovcen 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 27/10/2012

Woop. Landed another big winner over jumps with Sporting Boy couple of days ago, so hope that bodes well for today! I like the look of soooooo many horses so I could get a tad carried away. Will be piling into accumulators! There is a lot of hype about Kingsbarns and I hope it’s all true as I reckon I’ll lump on and look for a few trebles too.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has selected:

Doncaster 2.30 – Doc Hay 12/1 and Dungannon 20/1

Newbury 3.45 – Sir John Hawkwood 6/1

My long list of thoughts for today:

Doncaster 2.00 – Art Scholar 11/1 has had a tough schedule of late, but the Nottingham race has decent form lines with First Mohican and Swnymor. Goes well at Donny too, but this field is 20 big and not the easiest race of the day! Proofreader 5/1 looks a few steps ahead of the BHA.

Doncaster 2.30 – Captain Dunne 14/1 looks on a decent mark and looks in better shape now. Goes well over C&D as does Kaldoun Kingdom 25/1. Drop back to 5f will suit. Just hope I’ve picked right side of the track!

Doncaster 3.05 – I backed Van Der Neer 8/1 Antepost, but all the chat is about Kingsbarns 2/1 and all the money is for Kingsbarns. Ladbrokes have been avoiding this race all week as well and then opened at 6/4. Clue? I hope so.

Doncaster 4.10 – No telling how good Taayel might be as the form is rock solid, but I’ll go Lucky Beggar 10/1 as not keen on short price as not proven on ground

Doncaster 4.45 – Skilful 5/4 looks a solid favourite. Second in this last year and come here in great form!

Newbury 2.15 – Wow. Tough. Tentatively going with Glean 5/1. Aimed at this race and I think the Havana Gold form is the strongest.

Newbury 3.15 – Momalorka 9/2 gets Moore onboard today and takes step down in class. Great chance and officially highest rated.

Newbury 3.45 – 3 year olds do remarkably well in this and the one I like is Lahaag 5/1 even though Sir JH is also of interest. I always seem to ignore the unexposed improving horses and go for proven, but hopefully caught the right one this time!

Newbury 4.20 – Gouray Girl 8/1 or Russian Rave 10/1. If the former gets a good start is in with a big shout and the latter has solid C&D credentials on heavy going with similar mark to play with.

Leopardstown 5.00 – Famous Name 4/5.

Aintree 2.25 – Nikola 5/1, won this last year of a higher mark. Old boy now but nothing else hugely scares me at the weights.

Aintree 3.30 – Noble Prince 5/1 if primed will be hard to beat. Wishfull Thinking is one of my favs, but think will struggle today, just have a feeling. Mad Max 25/1 is interesting if recapturing form, but trainer is not going well at mo

Chepstow 2.35 – Knock a Hand 6/4. Easily the best over hurdles. Please take to chasing.

Chepstow 3.10 – Back Bob Back 6/1 (just). Nearly went Plein Pouvoir but no record when after a break and hoping the 5lb claim BBB gets will make all the difference.

Chepstow 3.40 – Wonderful Charm 6/5 looks a good import and Nicholls has won this race a few times before too.

Chepstow 4.15 – If Salubrious 2/1 doesn’t turn out to be a well handicapped horse and sure he is then last year’s winner Arthurian Legend 6/1 will be around to pick up the pieces.

Chepstow 4.50 – Tataniano 7/4. Reckon Kumbeshwar’s jumping will let him down. Well, hoping.

8.30am update...Couple more horses to throw in...

Aintree 1.50 - Rumble of Thunder 16/1. Loves it here, good mark.

Newbury 2.45 - Noble Mission 4/1. Top rated 3yr old in the race. Will be a good gallop this time around (I hope)

Right, enough is enough. Let's hope this is not a disaster. The transition between flat season and jumps season has never been a successful one for me, but I had a good transition the other way around for the first time this year, so fingers crossed for a repeat.

Total Staked £1,827.25, Total Returned £1,628.79

£15.00 e/w Noble Prince 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Mad Max 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£28.75 Skilful 11/10 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Art Scholar 11/1 - PLACED £54.19

£30.00 Proofreader 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Skilful 5/4 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Glean 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Lucky Beggar 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Gouray Girl 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Nikola 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Back Bob Back 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Salubrious 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Doc Hay 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Dungannon 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sir John Hawkwood 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Knock a Hand 6/4 - LOSE £0.00

£151.25 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - PLACED £148.55

£36.00 Famous Name 2/9 - WIN £44.00

£15.00 e/w Kaldoum Kingdom 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Captain Dunne 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£150.00 Kingsbarns 15/8 - WIN £431.25

£15.00 e/w Lahaag 4/1 - NR £30.00

£15.00 e/w Russian Rave 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£90.00 Famous Name 4/5 - WIN £154.80

£30.00 Wonderful Charm 6/5 - WIN £66.00

£30.00 Arthurian Legend 5/1 - PLACED £0.00

£30.00 Tataniano 7/4 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Rumble of Thunder 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Noble Mission 10/3 - LOSE £0.00

£500.00 Famous Name 2/5 - WIN £700.00

Bets 25/10/2012

I enjoyed Prince Buster yesterday outrunning his price and once again shows the power of formlines. I had zero success on the flat as Subtle Knife was def drawn unfavourably looking at the results, so maybe now is the time to start focusing on the jumps. Clearly I'll be paying attention to the Breeders, Melbourne and RP Trophy but the jumps really are about to get exciting!

Carlisle 4.30 – Ballyclough doesn’t look well handicapped, but top stable so not as easy just to say that. Ahyaknowyeself is the paper pick as is going up 6lb but track may not suit and I’m hoping Pas Trop Tard 2/1 improves past him.

Carlisle 5.00 – Super Duty 10/11 is the classiest horse in the race. Doesn’t mean he will take to chasing, but if he does he should hack up

Ludlow 3.15 – Nikos Extra 5/1 looks on a decent mark here.

Ludlow 5.20 – Sporting Boy 12/1 w/o fav looks like has conditions to suit

Total Staked £150.00, Total Returned £317.22

£30.00 Pas Trop Tard 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Nikos Extra 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sporting Boy (w/o fav) 12/1 - WIN £255.00

£15.00 e/w Treble N/A - PLACED £62.22

£30.00 Super Duty 10/11 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 24/10/2012

Newmarket 2.30 – Market says Miraaj. I shouldn’t punt on this really, but I’ll go Insurebet 3 places Miraaj 9/4. Hannon newcomers backed in have a decent record. Oddly, maybe, the one I like is Admiralofthesea. Looked like he wasn’t really prepped for first race. The form of that race is quite strong and pedigree suggests may go well on the prevailing conditions, so Admiralofthesea 9/1 w/o Miraaj. Still not sure why I’m even considering this race.

Newmarket 3.05 – Meehan has won this several times before with 7s and 8s and it’s tempting to back Master Ming purely on that, but So Beloved’s 11/10 form put’s him up there with Telescope (nearly).

Newmarket 4.45 – Subtle Knife 9/2 to slice through the field from the back. Feels like another larger e/w bet after Jack Dexter’s form was boosted by Cheveton (glad I went large on that!). Stable going well too. No Poppy is up 4lb plus doesn’t get the previous 5lb apprentice allowance, but he does get Frankie. He has run well here before, but ran less than 2 weeks ago so will stick with Subtle Knife – just hope can cut through the field. Am also hoping Firedaws is not well handicapped and doesn’t go well on soft.

Worcester 2.10 – Only treading cautiously with the jumps at the moment. It will take me a while to get back into this, but I can’t work out why Prince Buster is 16/1. There are a few decent horses in this so I’ll got Prince Buster 11/1 w/o the fav. The form of that Sir Des Champs race is not bad for this level.

Total Staked £210.00, Total Returned £236.25

£30.00 Miraaj 9/4 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Admiralofthesea 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 So Beloved 11/10 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Prince Buster (w/o fav) 11/1 - WIN £236.25

£15.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 e/w Subtle Knife 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 22/10/2012

Why I bet on Brampour I don’t know. I now remember watching the Betfair Hurdle  which Zarkandar won and thought he got lucky because Get Me Out of Here got badly hampered and then finished very strongly. Based my Brampour choice on that race on the stats, but this just reminds me how important it is to actually watch a few races! I also saw the highlights from Cheltenham on Saturday. Feel gutted that Galaxy Rock didn’t rock in as was cruising until stumbled two out. Anyway, back to today. Need a few boosters!

Pontefract 3.50 – Oasis Cannes is probably the choice pick on form, but I reckon the value lies with Willie The Whipper 13/2. Duffield won this race with a similar sort last year, and running out an 8 length winner on debut when still a bit green is not too shabby!

Pontefract 4.50 – West End Lad 6/1 to exploit drop in mark and Satanic Beat 14/1 to use his 3yr old allowance on ideal conditions

Pontefract 5.20 - Maybe a large e/w bet on Cheveton 4/1, after Jack Dexter bolted up on Saturday

Total Staked £190.00, Total Returned £469.58

£50.00 e/w Cheveton 10/3 - WIN £308.33

£15.00 e/w Satanic Beat 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w West End Lad 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Wilie The Whipper 7/1 - WIN £161.25

P&L @ 22/10/12:
£14,399.29
AntePost P&L @ 22/10/12:
£2,300.92
Total P&L @ 22/10/12:
£16,700.21

Bets 21/10/2012

What an immense day @ Ascot. I've only just woken up. Financially it was dire and lumps on Excelebration got me out of trouble, but I'll write a full review of my flat season later this week.

Only 1 bet today:

Kempton 4.25 - Brampour 6/4

£54.10 Brampour 6/4 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 20/10/2012 - Champions Day

Should not have bothered mulling over the cards yesterday at lunch, but I did, and I took a minor beating. Had I have won, no doubt I would have said, 'glad I had a cheeky punt yesterday, has warmed me up for Champions Day!' Yesterday was a stark reminder that favourites over obstacles are not as straight forward as favourites on the flat, as they have to manoeuvre the bad boys and not end up on their face. Fairly obvious statement! Ha, but it should be embedded.

I'm off to Ascot shortly to witness Frankel in the flesh, in the glory, in his majestic beauty for only the 4th time, but the last time. I cannot wait. Let's hope I can make a few bob on the way. I won't be including my on course punting on here.

Tom 'Pricewise' Segal from the RacingPost has tipped up:

Cheltenham 2.30 - That'lldoboy 7/1. I backed this yesterday and wondered why Willhill limited me to £10 ew. Now I know. Most of Segal's bets are limited on WH. Well for me anyway. Anyone else have this problem?

Ascot 2.55 - La Pomme D'Amour 10/1

Ascot 3.30 - Carlton House 11/1

My thoughts very shortly...

8.30am update...

Ascot 1.45 – Rite of Passage will have to overcome a huge layoff. Color Vision has a tough race at Longchamp. Saddlers Rock has been disappointing of late and was also at Longchamp. Don’t think Il De Re who won be some serious moolah in last two races has the class for this and either does Electrolyser. Askar Tau goes better on good (I think). So that leaves Fame and Glory, but not convince about the ground even if he did win this last year. Opinion Poll will no doubt place as a solid consistent performer, but that leaves me with Aiken 6/1, who will definitely love the cut in the ground, arguably still improving and, well it’s Gosden, trainer of the year.

Ascot 2.20 – All week I’ve been over Slade Power, but Lynam has indicated the prep has not been ideal, but I’ve backed Antepost so no going back. Wizz Kid didn’t run well at Ascot last time out and surely it’s too soon from Longchamp. I never thought I’d do this, but Society Rock 3/1 is the class horse in the race. He’s nailed Ascot before, the form is working out well and surely the only bother is about him playing up in the stalls? On course, I might back Sirius Prospect one last time. Change of headgear could do the trick!

Ascot 2.55 – Dancing Rain was my hero in this last year, but surely will find it tough to overcome the absence and Haggas has said he’d prefer less cut. The 3yr olds get a few lengths head start so will need to tread carefully even if they aren’t great this year. I was going to hit Shirocco Star, but she had a very hard race at Longchamp. Willhill are taking on Great Heavens 11/4. I can’t. She wasn’t aimed at the Arc, but have no doubt Gosden would have targeted today in case he was behind in the trainers title. She was won after a short break before.

Ascot 3.30 – This is surely Excelebration 10/11 all the way. On paper his last run over C&D with Frankel does not count. He had to try and go with Frankel and had no chance so the rest of the field were much closer. He readily despatched of top class opposition in the J Le Marois and the ground is no concern. There are so many decent sorts in this. I backed Most Improved 20/1 antepost in the hope some of these might drop out as he won the St. James Palace in good style even if that form is not the best. Carlton House was supposed to be my glorious AntePost bosh for the Derby last year, but he has been targeted for this race, hence why Segal has veered that way. I’m still all about Excelebration.

Ascot 4.05 – I think I’ve seen the worst quote ever on the RacingPost “Frankel performs particularly well under Tom Queally” – clearly automation gone wrong! However Frankel is 1.25 in places and now might be worth a lump job? I’m fully devoted, but it will not be a romp. Cirrus Des Aigles will be chasing him home ever step of the way. Nathaniel won’t be far away and Pastorius may well prove far better than the 50/1 on offer if you check that form out around Danedream!

Ascot 4.45 – Bookies will be waiting for this all day long. I’m only going to have a couple of bets and no more in this and this is not easy with the apprentice jockeys, but one I really do like is M J M Murphy. So Redvers 20/1. C&D winner and on same mark as when despatched by Idler so has a great shout if ground in not too soft. Atlantic Sport 33/1 is far too big and Axoim 16/1 both go very well at Ascot.

Catterick 2.15 – Chance taken that Alexandrakollantai 10/1 will bounce back. Trainer has 75% strike rate here.

Catterick 2.50 – Verinco 7/1 won this last year. Draw is not as good this time round and is a few lbs higher without a claimer. But, Catterick is fairly unique so sometimes pays to stick with C&D winners.

Cheltenham 2.30 – That’lldoboy 13/2. Really shouldn’t be punting in big handicaps like this, this early on, but far too exciting not to. Nicholls is starting to bang in the winners already and this one like Cheltenham. Has jumping issues and maybe might need this run as record fresh not good (based on 1 run), but I’m still going in.

Cheltenham 3.40 – Galaxy Rock 10/1 has had his prep run. Loves it here. I will love him if he wins. Bradley 11/1 is another with a great shout looking at last C&D run. The winners of this race have always been prominent in the market.

Kelso 3.15 – Lie Forrit 9/4 goes well over C&D. I’ve got a soft spot for the one though, so might be an emotional punt.

Total Staked £725.00, Total Returned £347.85

Today's Bets:

£15.00 e/w Alexandrakollontai 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Galaxy Rock 10/1 - PLACED £52.50

£105.00 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - LOSE £14.10

£15.00 e/w Verinco 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Bradley 11/1 - PLACED £56.25

£15.00 e/w That'll Do Boy 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Society Rock 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Great Heavens 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Redvers 20/1 - PLACED £90.00

£15.00 e/w Atlantic Sport 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Axoim 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w La Pomme D'amour 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Carlton House 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£75.00 Excelebration 4/5 - WIN £135.00

£50.00 Lie Forrit 9/4 - LOSE £14.10

Antepost Bets:

£15.00 e/w Most Improved 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 19/10/2012

A very quick lunchtime look over a Thai Green Curry:

Cheltenham 2.10 – The New One Evs

Cheltenham 2.45 – Go All The Way 2/1

Haydock 2.25 -  Lady Phill 11/2 w/o the fav

Haydock 4.10 – Arthurs Secret 11/4

Haydock 4.45 – Chosen Character 4/1

Total Staked £180.00, Total Returned £90.00

£15.00 e/w Lady Phill 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 The New One Evs - WIN £60.00

£30.00 Go All The Way 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Arthurs Secret 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Chosen Character 4/1 - PLACED £30.00

Bets 17/10/2012

Wouldn't normally do this, but in the honour of Frankel at the weekend I'll look at one race which involves his half brother!

Nottingham 1.40 - Morpheus 2/1 is being slightly hyped, but you'd probably expect more being Frankel's half brother! However this is purely a loyalty bet. The one I like in the race is Personable 11/2 w/o the favourite. He was very green on debut, but the form of that Telescope race is working out very well with Autun and Soviet Rock winning.

Total Staked £60.00, Total Returned £129.00

£30.00 Morpheus 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Personable (w/o Fav) 11/2 - WIN £129.00

P&L @ 17/10/12:
£14,610.96
AntePost P&L @ 17/10/12:
£2,330.92
Total P&L @ 17/10/12:
£16,941.88

Hughes bags 7 winners at Windsor

Wow. Hats off. Richard Hughes becomes only the second rider in history to ride seven winners in a day on one card in Britain, the other being Frankie Dettori when he notched his 'magnificent seven' at Ascot in 1996

However, the only reason I'm blogging this is because the racecourse doctor was unable to say why Ryan Moore was stood down from riding in the last race, on the grounds of "medical confidentiality". This allowed Hughes to pick up the 7th! Apparently it was “Jet Lag”!

"Jet-Lagged" Ryan Moore smirking in that background as King Hughes winds up Dettori for no longer being the only jockey to land 7 on one card. 

Bets 15/10/2012

Missed a plump Segal 10/1 winner yesterday and there was every reason why I would have backed it, looking at the card. Clearly that's very very easy to say in hindsight. I should probably save my bunce for the Frankel Farewell, but...

Musselburgh 2.40 – Powerful Presence 9/1 has a great chance here. Will need to be prominent, has won over C&D, down in grade and back to ground he likes. Capaill Liath 7/1 will come running fast from the back but will need a lot of luck but Amy Ryan who is fighting for the apprentice title will really go for this.

Musselburgh 3.15 – Gordonsville 10/1 has a great chance in this. Winner 2 years ago, 2^nd last year of 1lb higher, goes on soft, so has a shout. Seems to run every other race well, and this time is lined up to run well!

Total Staked £120.00, Total Returned 282.50

£10.00 Powerful Presence 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Powerful Presence 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 Capaill Liath 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Capaill Liath 7/1 - PLACED £27.50

£15.00 e/w Powerful Presence, Gordonsville Double  N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gordonsville 10/1 - WIN £145.00

£10.00 Gordonsville 10/1 - WIN £110.00

Bets 13/10/2012

4 places and 1 win yesterday. Very frustrating. 1 more place and I've have £1.5k from the e/w accumulator. Some early thoughts for tomorrow, but will add more tomorrow.

Refreshed 7.45am...

Tom 'Pricewise' Segal from the Racingpost has gone for 3 today, although 1 is a non runner:

• Newmarket 3.35 – I toyed with this one yesterday, but went Higgins instead. He has gone Monstaser 12/1. The big cheese has sacked of one of his runners to get him in as he originally missed the cut so is obviously fancied.
• York 3.45 – Mass Rally 7/1

First half of thoughts. Off to Nottingham today, so will post the other half before lunch!

Chepstow 3.00 – Fingal Bay 4/6

Chepstow 3.40 – Hinterland 6/5

Newmarket 1.50 – Red Jazz 11/1 to bounce back. Solid C&D winner. Won this race 2 yrs ago. Although 3yr olds do well in this race, might be worth taking them on with the quality of this years bunch

Newmarket 2.20, 2.55 – I’m fully dedicated to Reckless Abandon and Dawn Approach. Doubled them @ 2/1 * Evs earlier in the week.

Newmarket 3.35 – I’ve backed Countrywide Flame 12/1 AP (Segal) and for some odd reason I think I backed Lordofthehouse AP as well but haven’t looked for it. Also think backed it at 16/1. Whoops. It bugs me that Pipe has so many runners in this and I feel like I have to plug one of them, but not sure who. The two yardsticks I’m going to use for this are Mount Athos and Sir Graham Wade and last year’s runners. So from last year, the easy choice is Ermyn Lodge 40/1, although really doesn’t look like is in the same form as last year. My number one choice for the race is Hurricane Higgins 14/1 today. After his Group race he’s miles ahead of handicapper and just hope he takes to C&D. Lots of others but will stick with HH and maybe Beyond 25/1 as Pipe is defo after this race!

Newmarket 4.05 – Scintillula 3/1 on the form, but so many unknowns

Newmarket 4.40 – Montiridge 11/4. Hughesy tip for the day

Newmarket 5.15 – French Navy 6/1 based on ground and has won here at Newmarket. I had Quick Wit and Trade Commissioner on shortlist and found them hard to take off, but just had to!

11.00am Update...

York 2.05 – Steps 5/1 got shafted on the wrong side of York last time

York 3.10 – Royal Rascal 10/3 owes me

York 3.45 – Regal Parade 12/1 to turn back the years

York 5.30 – Bridle Belle 8/1. Trust in Hanagan to play this one smart and take from the front

Total Staked £760.00, Total Returned £1225.98

Antepost Bets:

£30.00 Dawn Approach, Reckless Abandon Double 5/1 - WIN £180.00

£15.00 e/w Countrywide Flame 12/1 - PLACED £60.00

Today's Bets:

£15.00 e/w Ermyn Loadge 40/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Scintillula 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Steps 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Bridle Belle 8/1 - WIN £152.40

£30.00 Dawn Approach, Hinterland, Fingal Bay Treble N/A - WIN £142.48

£110.00 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - PLACED £106.20

£15.00 e/w Beyond 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Hinterland 6/5 - WIN £62.40

£30.00 Royal Rascal 10/3 - WIN £120.00

£15.00 e/w Regal Parade 12/1 - WIN £292.50

£30.00 Fingal Bay 4/6 - WIN £50.00

£15.00 e/w Mass Rally 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w French Navy 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Hurricane Higgins 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Montridge 11/4 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 e/w Montaser 12/1 - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Red Jazz 12/1 - PLACED £60.00

P&L @ 13/10/12: £14,379.46 AntePost P&L @ 13/10/12: £2,330.92 Total P&L @ 13/10/12: £16,710.38

Bets 12/10/2012

Butters ground at York and Bath today, so the mud-larks will be out in force.

York 2.00 – Despite all the non-runners, still looks a tough one. Bachotheque 7/2 looks a solid favourite, but I also like the look of Shahdaroba 11/1 w/o fav and Old Man Clegg 14/1 w/o fav. Where do I go?

York 3.05 – Vainglory 15/2 tentatively

               

York 4.15 – Tawaasul 6/1. This season Haggas is 5/5 in 3yr old handicaps at York. Looks a fair mark, but not overly generous and really I’m going with the stats. Otherwise Doc’s Legacy 11/2 looks a worthy favourite going on same mark as last race.

York 4.50 – Soviet Rock 5/1

York 5.20 – Allied Power 11/4. Solid on last year’s form but clearly a chance taken on fitness

Bath 1.00 – Sir Quentin 4/1 to shade Awake My Soul. Might forecast it.

Bath 1.30 – Cool Macavity 7/1 looks far too big when you look through form on soft at this level. Ahzeemah, Encke. Enough said.

Total Staked £452.60, Total Returned £373.38

£15.00 e/w Docs Legacy 11/2 - PLACED £33.56

£15.00 e/w Soviet Rock 5/1 - WIN £114.28

£15.00 e/w Old Man Clegg (w/o fav) 14/1 - NR £30.00

£15.00 e/w Shahdaroba (w/o fav) 8/1 - PLACED £39.00

£30.00 Allied Answer 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Cool Macavity 8/1 - PLACED £45.00

£15.00 e/w Tawaasul 6/1 - NR £30.00

£30.00 Bachotheque 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Vainglory 15/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sir Quintin 4/1 - PLACED £27.00

£76.30 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - PLACED £54.54

Each Way Punting - Less Profitable?

Last week, ‘Nath’ asked me whether or not I’d be sitting on more cash had I have backed all my selections on the nose, rather than each way. So, I spent a couple of hours crunching in Excel. Well, Excel did the crunching and I did the creative accounting and it was insightful! This is not 100%, but it is very close.

My two big wins on this blog came courtesy of each way accumulators, so I felt it only fair to remove these initially, as I didn’t want to skew the numbers. You’ll read why later.

1) The split between Accumulators and Singles was an intriguing one for me. I’ve done £9k on accumulators! Clearly I’m chasing the dream, but irrelevant, the returns are far better compared to the singles betting!

• Accumulators: Total Staked: £8,975.00, Total Returned: £16,400.32. Profit: £7,425.32
• Singles: Total Staked: £43,660.38, Total Returned: £52,543.07. Profit: £8,882.69

2) In total, I staked £26,085.51 on Each Way singles! Now, here’s the interesting part:

As-Is:

• Placed Returns: Total Staked: £6,793.94, Total Returned £11,172.01 Profit: £4,378.07 (This includes, NR, refunds, etc.)
• Win Returns: Total Staked: £3,175.25, Total Returned £21,130.95. Profit: £17,955.70
• Losers: Total Staked: £16,116.32, Total Returned £00,000.00. Profit: -£16,116.32
• Total: Profit: £6,217.45

Could-Have-Been:

• Placed Returns: Total Staked: £6,793.94, Total Returned £1,072.00 Profit: £-5721.94 (This includes, NR, refunds, etc.)
• Win Returns: Total Staked: £3,175.25, Total Returned £32,347.73 Profit: £29,172.48
• Losers: Total Staked: £16,116.32, Total Returned £00,000.00. Profit: -£16,116.32
• Total: Profit: £7,334.22

So, yes, if I would have bet on the nose, and not each-way I’d be £1,116.77 better off. If I included the accumulators, I’d be far better off. I’ve not worked it out, but in order not to feel sick, I won’t, though it’ll be around 10k extra!

Will this change how I punt? Maybe. When I have more time, I’d be interested to see what odds range I'm making more return on and whether this means for example I should bet win only on 6/1 and below. But, that's for another time.

Either way, ’Nath’, yes you are right J

Dotted blue is where I'd be if I had bet Win-Only on singles

Bets 08/10/2012

I really hope Champions Day @ Ascot is not going to be a similar Longchamp bog. Although was def a profitable day yesterday, like most we want to see speed over decent ground. The poor Japs were done again. Do you blame the jockey or the ground? Hmm. Orfevre was always the class act in that and surely should have won.

Pontefract 3.10 - I need some rain asap @ Pontefract. I backed Fireship 4/1 and 10/3 last night. The form stands out a mile, and though he still ran well on good ground at Ascot, the softer the better. RAIN!!!!

Total Staked £75.00, Total Returned £249.00 £35.00 Fire Ship 4/1 - WIN £119.00

£30.00 Fire Ship 10/3 - WIN £130.00

P&L @ 08/10/12:
£14,172.70
AntePost P&L @ 08/10/12:
£2,150.92
Total P&L @ 08/10/12:
£16,323.62

Bets 07/10/2012

I was AWOL yesterday. Alcohol. Enough said. I’m short of time today. Gutted. Racing looks amazing. The ground and draw will be key. Thousand Stars is running today as well, but I’ll keep my attention on the flat.

Longchamp 12.55 – Segal has gone for Wizz Kid 12/1. I go Monsieur Joe 11/1

Lonchamp 1.30 – Agent Allison 6/1. Newfangled form.

Longchamp 2.05 – Olympic Glory 9/4.

Longchamp 2.40 – Izzi Top 3/1

Longchamp 3.25 – All the horses I like are drawn double figures. Argh. Tom Segal has back Masterstoke 12/1 and Yellow and Green 22/1. I’ve backed Masterstoke 20/1 AP already. The two I’ll punt on are Saonois and Great Heavens. Both come in good form, draws okay, and the key is they’ll handle this ground. No way I can have Camelot. Orfevre may well be the best horse in this race, but that’s a tough draw.

Longchamp 4.55 – Gordon Lord Byron 3/1

Longchamp 5.25 – Segal has gone for Nikita Du Berlais 14/1 which is the one I would have gone for with these conditions. 

Total Staked £492.00, Total Returned £570.61

Today's Bets:

£15.00 e/w Nikita Du Berlais 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Yellow and Green 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Wizz Kid 9/1 - WIN £198.75

£15.00 e/w Monsieur Joe 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Agent Allison 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Olympic Glory 9/4 - WIN £90.75

£15.00 e/w Great Heavens 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Saonois 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Gordon Lord Byron 3/1 - WIN £120.00

£32.00 High Jinx 4/1 - PLACED £30.40

£65.00 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - PLACED £10.71

£30.00 Izzi Top 3/1 - PLACED £0.00 Antepost Bets:

£15.00 e/w Masterstroke 20/1 - PLACED £120.00

Bets 05/10/2012

Started the day off well yesterday and then went downhill quickly. The ground is soft at Ascot today and the fields are biggish and competitive. Tough nuts to crack, but lets try.

Ascot 2.20 – Idler has the form shout by a long way, but form away from Newmarket and good ground is not so good. Chance taken on Genius Step 7/1 to take to soft ground and reproduce 2yr old form. Reckon Dubai beckons. Dream Tune 6/1 might be worth a cover bet.

Ascot 3.30 – Fattsota 4/1. C&D winner, ground perfect and Encke formline.

Ascot 4.05 – Tempest Fugit 20/1 was the horse that pulled me out a sticky patch. Interestingly she beat Roc De Prince by 8l who was beat by Mawaqeet by 3l, who was beaten by SGW by 1.75l when giving weight away. Clearly a MASSIVE step up, but the maths is easy. Had a dream last night about Good Morning Star 25/1. Means nothing, but has gone well at Listed level before.

Ascot 4.40 – Ocean’s Minstrel 10/1 looks a big price here, but it bugs me the trainer is 0 from 14 here. First run back from a season off and put in a solid effort that makes his mark look very workable.

Ascot 5.15 – I’m pushing the boat out further, but Ewell Place 50/1 strikes me as a good chance, but only based on runs at York and Newbury when it was soft. Well guess what, it’s soft today and they were good races compared to this level. 

Total Staked £310.00, Total Returned £111.00

£15.00 e/w Genius Step 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Dream Tune 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Fattsota 9/2 - WIN £111.00

£15.00 e/w Tempest Fugit 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Good Morning Star 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Ocean's Minstrel 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Ewell Place 50/1 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 e/w Trebles, Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 04/10/2012

Cheeky couple of punts today.

Bangor 2.20 – Next Edition 4/1. Everything else looks pants.

Warwick 2.40 – Saint Jerome 5/2 looks to have a good chance here based on calibre of races before. Haaatefina 12/1 (w/o SJ) very interesting back on soft. Form with Annecdote looks good.

Warwick 4.40 – McBirney 9/1. Barzalona up. First time away from Newmarket and Kempton in a while. Could go well on a lowly mark now!

Total Staked £150.00, Total Returned £102.00

£15.00 e/w Next Edition 4/1 - WIN £102.00

£15.00 e/w Haatefina 28/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Mcbirney 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00 £15.00 e/w Saint Jerome 5/2 - LOSE £0.00