Bets 31/05/2012

Just a quick dip in the betting pool before a dive bomb in the swimming pool. Sandown looks tasty today.

Sandown 7.20 – Opinion Poll is the class act here. I know stable is not fully on fire, but I heart this horse.

Sandown 7.55 – Carlton House nearly landed me a big prize and looks the class act. Heart this horse also.

£20.00 Carlton House 10/11 - WIN £38.19

£20.00 Opinion Poll 7/4 - WIN £55.00

£20.00 Opinion Poll, Carlton House Double N/A - WIN £100.23

Week 15: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Initial Pot: £1500.00. Total Staked: £19,585.34, Total Returned: £23,927.51  = Profit: £4,342.17

Despite £120 in the bank this week, that sense of hindsight frustration has bestowed itself upon me again.

• Why did I go 50p each way on my big trebles bet instead of £1 trebles? Imagine at the time having a 28/1, 20/1 and 16/1 in there it made sense?
• Why did I not put Power or Jet Away into the big trebles bet? I was scared of Trumpet Major and Fiorente
• Why did I lay Bonfire at 7s knowing full well it would shorten further? I was scared might be a non-runner
• Why didn’t I lump onto La Estrella or Bated Breath? I just have no conviction sometimes, but have been burnt with lump jobs before so was sensible
• Why do I still follow Tom Segal’s bets? Loyalty and FOMO..

Glad I did that. Regretful feelings now out of my system. I’m in Spain this week so limited punting, but I’m already set for the Derby. If Camelot wins, which looking at the field, he must have a solid chance, I win over £500, but if he loses, £50. So it’s win, win now. How? Well, had a £100 double on Camelot and Frankel which will return £240 and a £10 treble on Bated Breath, Power and Camelot which will return £440. On the flip side I back Born to Sea @ 20/1 and Bonfire @ 25/1 on Betfair and smoothly laid Bonfire at 7/1 and have now laid Camelot as well so a win-win job. Clearly I hope Camelot wins.

Right off to the pool!

Bets 27/05/2012

Segal has picked Reliable Man and La Collina.  I'm keener on Homecoming Queen, So You Think and Cirrus D A. Off to Spain...

£20.00 Treble Homecoming Queen, So You Think, Cirrus Des Aigles LOSE £0.00
£5.00 e/w Reliable Man 16/1 - LOSE £0.00
£5.00 e/w La Collina 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 26/05/2012

Argh. Just woken up. Bad day yesterday and now I've missed all the Pricewise value. His bets are:

Haydock 2.30 - Frog Hollow 8/1 but now 7/2.
Curragh 3.15 - Trumpet Major 7/1 but now 9/2.
York 3.45 - Ancient Cross 25/1 but now 14/1.

2.20pm update...Could be an expensive day!!!

Haydock 2.30 – Segal has tipped Frog Hollow and will leave it there

Haydock 3.00 – This is going to be an awesome race. I’m a Bated Breath fan and I should look around but I’m emotionally attached. Charlton is on fire so will help.

Haydock 3.30 – Going to be a bit outrageous and punt on Ginger Ted at 33/1. Has some form behind Hoof It and Secret Witness and on a low mark

Haydock 4.05 – Another Try and a longshot at 28/1

Haydock 4.40 – Tamareen looks interesting at 12/1 with form behind Piscean.

Haydock 5.15 – Afaal looks a solid favourite at 11/4.

Goodwood 2.45 – Jet Away is the highest rated horse in this race and ran a decent race here last year as did Fiorente. Not sure which way to go.

Goodwood 3.20 – Grumeti and Ithoughtitwas over have both beaten Local hero. If you look at the weights and the manner in which Grumeti won, have to go with Grumeti, but it could easily go the other way if Ithoughtiwasover continues his progress.

Goodwood 5.00 –Alfresco has won this race twice before and will put up a bold bid for the hatrick. Am also tempted by Aye Aye Digby.

York 2.35 – 3 places offered in this race, and although Saamid is the class horse Regal Parade and ran a blinder here behind Our Jonathon. Ground might be a worry.

York 3.45 – Segal had picked Ancient Cross and looks a good bet. Gutter missed the 25/1. Secret Witness flew home last time and although up 5lb gets a 3lb claimer.

Chester 4.00 – Imperial DJay looked unlucky last time out and just needs a bit of luck this time out.

Curragh 2.40 – The Reaper landed me a solid win earlier this year but the one who caught the eye in that race was Experience. There’s a few form lines behind Krypton Factor and at the prices Experience at 9/1 looks the one for me. Hitchens is too short.

Curragh 3.15 – I managed to back Power at 6/1 Antepost. Segal has tipped the other I would have backed; Trumpet Major. I wonder which O’Brien outsider will win today?

Curragh 4.20 – Billyford’s form behind Windsor Palace and Excelebration should not be dismissed at looks a juicy 14/1. Sweet Lightening is a worth favourite 

Total Staked £464.00, Total Returned £807.90


Antepost Bets:

£5.00 e/w Power 6/1 - WIN £46.00

£10.00 Power 6/1 - WIN £70.00

Today's Bets:

£20.00 Bated Breath 3/1 - WIN £80.00

£20.00 Afaal 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Jet Away 7/2 - WIN £90.00

£20.00 Grumeti 7/4 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 Aye Aye Digby 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Frog Hollow 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Experience 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Ancient Cross 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Ginger Ted 33/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Another Try 28/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Secret Witness 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Imperial Djay 8/1 - WIN £116.00

£10.00 e/w Regal Parade 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Alfresco 15/2 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Trumpet Major 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Tamareen 12/1 - WIN £170.00

£10.00 e/w Billyford 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Sweet Lightening 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£42.00 e/w Trebles N/A - WIN £235.90

£2.50 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 26/05/12:
£2,933.78
AntePost P&L @ 26/05/12:
£1,448.39
Total P&L @ 26/05/12:
£4,382.17

Bets 25/05/2012

Primaeval got first run on everyone yesterday and a number of horses came flying from the back, but it was a solid bet and Citrus snatched 3rd so the race worked out well. Lucky really as nothing else did! I really should lay of the 3yr old races for a few more weeks. The merky ground has not allowed for consistency, but such is life. Let's crack on.

Goodwood 3.10 – Konstantin has been heavily backed this morning and may well hack up, but there are number I’d love to take him on with. Indian Art is the first. Is in cracking form as is the stable, has won here at Goodwood before and Hughes is up. Space Station is down in class and weight and could bounce back to form, but I really want to take a punt on Rougette is 28/1. Clearly I’ll be disappointed, but if not here with these conditions then she will never(is unlikely) live up to her maiden promise.               

Goodwood 4.20 – Triple Aspect in a Class 2 handicap at 12/1. What? Has been gelded, yes, but 12/1 after one butters performance? Noble Citizen looked very very impressive yesterday but did have a 5lb claim and maybe wants further. I’ve picked up some good place money on Parisian Pyramid and feel for this horse. Has won this race before and is in blinding form so arguably a justified favourite.

Goodwood 4.55 – Lady Rosamunde is due to go up 7lb so is well handicapped. At a bigger price Crafty Roberto looks interesting. Can see bursts of speed in his jumps form. He beat Art History over hurdles who is rated 85 on flat so a mark of 75 is somewhat interesting.

Goodwood 5.30 – Despite my opening paragraph I want to take a chance with Cockney Rhyme. Couple of solid races as a 2yr old but as above 3yr old form has been blown out a bit with the ground…

Total Staked £235.00, Total Returned £75.00

£10.00 e/w Triple Aspect 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Crafty Roberto 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Doubles N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Basseterre 11/4 - WIN £75.00

£10.00 e/w Space Station 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Rougette 28/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Indian Art 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Lady Rosamude 9/4 - PLACED £0.00

£15.00 Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Cockney Rhyme 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Parisian Pyramid 9/4 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 24/05/2012

La 'Bank Job' Estrella pulled through again yesterday but I didn't do a Frankel lump job. No conviction. Never had the best time with punting at Goodwood, but let's give it a shot.

Goodwood 2.35 – A lot of “no idea how good they will be horses” in here. Chance taken with Mr Churchill. I think the horse has been badly ridden in the few races he has run and hoping Barza can pull off some magic at 7/1. Early morning money for Attenborough.

Goodwood 3.10 – Bonnie Brae and Primaeval look to have the best form here. The former appears to prefer soft so will pass over. The Fanshawe horse however looks a solid 3/1. At a bigger price Citrus Star is tempting with good C&D form but Primaeval battered CS @ Kempton and gets more in hand on Turf.  

Goodwood 3.45 – We just don’t know how well some of these have progressed over the winter. What we do know is Charlton and Doyle are firing them in and Estrela was with Vow for a long while before the trip was beyond hope. Hoping for a strong front running performance today.

Goodwood 4.20 – Golan Way is a speedy hurdler but seems to flop after 2m 4f mark. I can envisage another strong front running performance and 2m will definitely suit. 

Total Staked £130.00, Total Returned £115.00

£20.00 Primaeval 3/1 - WIN £80.00

£10.00 e/w Mr Churchill 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Citrus Star 10/1 - PLACED £35.00

£10.00 e/w Estrela 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Golan Way 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Doubles, Trebles, E/W Acc N/A - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 24/05/12:
£2,845.88
AntePost P&L @ 24/05/12:
£1,352.39
Total P&L @ 24/05/12:
£4,198.27

Bets 23/05/2012

Again, little to get excited about today. Methaaly was butters yesterday. 10 minutes of research and this is what I have today...

Southwell 2.20 – A number of these could pop up. Abi Scarlet had to work hard to get her victory in last and is up 4lb now. Reve Du Jour should be turning tables at the weights with the jockey claim, but I wonder whether at 11/1 Flying Pickets offers the most value. Alan McCabe is not having a good spell so I should not entertain this but horse has put up some decent efforts over 7f and just needs to get a good start to be in the reckoning at these weights

Southwell 3.50 – La Estrella has been somewhat of a bank job for the last 6 months and I’ll go in again.

£20.00 La Estrella 1/2 - WIN £30.00

£10.00 e/w Flying Pickets 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 22/05/2012

Little to get excited about today, but will try in 5 minutes to work out a big handicap in Nottingham.

Nottingham 2.45 - Methaaly is an old boy with a mixed career, but today, down in class and running off a low mark. Trainer had a 9/1 win yesterday. Being highest drawn will have it's draw bias advantage, but the key here is the jockey booking of Hughes. He is going to have to be ridden early as his best trip arguably over longer and previous jockeys have failed to time it right. Let's hope Hughes can at 9/1. Some bookies are offering 4 places. Just seen this. Too late. Schoolboy. D'oh.

£10.00 e/w Methaaly 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

Week 14: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Initial Pot: £1500.00. Total Staked: £18,656.34, Total Returned: £22,899.61  = Profit: £4,243.27

Rarely is epitome of sheer class lavished upon us in such natural harmony. Cecil’s tears signified more than an exuberant sensation. Frankel’s minor injury scare had a horse-racing nation on its’ knees. We may never have witnessed the majestic force that is Frankel again, but on Saturday, we did. It was stunning. Long Live The King. Nothing in the One Mile Club will touch him, so, should Cecil step him up in trip and more importantly should Cecil take him outside the UK for a chance at World Domination? There is not a racing fan dead or alive, and that is not presumptuous, that would not relish the Frankel vs Black Caviar showdown. There are no more superlatives to describe this animal/machine and his tenth career race was a genuine 10/10.

The sloppy ground has made this season uber complicated so far with few yardsticks and a few 2yr old still to be unleashed. I think this is going to be a tough flat season to make any serious money and although there are some mouth-watering meets on the horizon, my focus really will be Champions Day.

So, the all-important question. Am I close to being banned by a bookmaker? Quite Frankely, No. Have a long way to go, despite making £750 in the last fortnight.

Bets 19/05/2012 - The Return of The Frankel

Never look a gift horse in the mouth? What a senseless phrase when taken on face value. I was adamant the bookies gave me a 6/1 gift horse yesterday. But, like the City of Troy, taking a gift horse without digging deeper was my undoing. Okay, I didn’t have an Agamemnon burn down my city, take my women and children, massacre my priests and temple, but I was still mugged of £20. On Agamemnon’s returned to Troy he and his followers were ambushed and murdered. Odyssey has written the future. Jay Desai will ambush the gift bearers…maybe not today, as today is all about The Frankelstein.

I’m uber glad I never had more time to bet yesterday. Missed out of the classy Red Cadeaux, but looking at the other results yesterday, phewie. Racingpost’s Tom ‘Pricewise’ Segal has picked out two today:

Newmarket 2.45 – Dark Castle (16/1), Gabriels Lad (20/1)

My thoughts later on, as always…

Newbury 2.00 – Can’t pick between Ibicenco whose trainer won this last year, and has form behind Campanologist which actually is not as good as it looks, Nehaam whose trainer is flying and has solid form behind Fame and Glory or Hawaafez whose trainer is in outer space and hacked hacked hacked up in last race. The ground factor swings it back to Fallon’s mount, but I’m staying clear. Decided.

Newbury 2.30 – Bertiewhittle won a few decent 3yr Handicaps last year. Looked a tad unlucky in last race and seems to be early money for him. I know it’s a cop out but Mac’s Power who is favourite, was 2^nd in this last year ought to go close, but may stick with just the former as 4yr olds have a solid record in this as well.

Newbury 3.40 - Ladbrokes don't fancy Excelebration, I don't either. Yes he is he class, but Frankel is 10lb better which is about 3 lengths better. With Strong Suit out, surely nothing can stop the Machine. This would be a terrible day for racing if Frankel lost and terrible on my P&L. Short short price now, so there's the forecast option.

Newbury 5.20 – Dance Company ran a blinder in last race. 7/1 is interesting.

Henry Cecil Special – Frankel, Thomas Chippendale, Noble Mission Treble at 14/1 is definitely worth a pop.

Newmarket 1.40 – Couple of interesting prices in this. Illustrious Prince is on a decent mark and his trainer’s form figures are 128232121. Course winner so 14/1 is a decent price. I was looking at Ongoodform, but may be too high in the weights, so will pass over.

Newmarket 2.15 – Will be so much hype about Noble Mission. Will have to concede weight to win this, but why not.

Newmarket 2.45 – Tough one. 3yr Handicaps always are. Segal has picked Dark Castle. Gabriels Lad is now a NR. I like the look of Pea Shooter. Has some serious form line boosts and the trainers hold in high regard.      

Newmarket 3.55 – Hmm. I’m really drawn to Bernie The Bolt.  On a good mark but really does have to be on top of his game to land this.

Machine

Total Staked £928.81, Total Returned £1,057.97

Antepost Bets:

£100.00 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £140.00

£85.00 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £119.00

£111.26 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £155.76

£85.00 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £119.00

£66.30 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £92.82

£41.25 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £57.75

£150.00 Frankel 2/5 - WIN £210.00

£120.00 Frankel 4/11 - WIN £163.64

Today's Bets:

£10.00 e/w Illustrious Prince 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Bernie The Bolt 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Bertiewhittle 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Bertiewhittle, Macs Power r f/c N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Thomas Chippendale, Noble Mission, Frankle Treble 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Doubles N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Dance Company 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Pea Shooter 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 19/05/12:
£2,890.88
AntePost P&L @ 19/05/12:
£1,352.39
Total P&L @ 19/05/12:
£4,243.27

Bets 18/05/2012 - York Dante Festival Day 3

The feeling I had about Judge n Jury was spot on. I watched his last race here and his previous race and that was the only convincing I needed. Trusted the jockey to go earlier and he obliged, although he had no choice with the way the race was run. Secret Witness came flying home, flying home. Considering he won a race two days that was some performance. The handicappers will now merk him. There was an almighty gamble on Fury before the off and am glad to say I was in it from the beginning meaning a cheeky 80/1 double with Judge n Jury. Would have been so much sweeter if Sajjhaa came in, but Izzi Top and John Gosden continue their march forward. I don’t think Bonfire was that impressive and Ladbrokes (remember, key to O’Brien horses) is 8/11 on Camelot. I backed Bonfire for the Derby at 25/1 with £40, so time to lay, lay, lay. Boylesports are offering 4/5 NRNB on Camelot….Double with Frankel and you have 7/5? Worth it?

Racingpost’s Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up:

York 2.00 – War Poet (11/1) and Bridle Belle (16/1)

My thoughts later…

York 2.00 – If someone tells you John Gosden has picked up 3 big prizes at York in the last two days and then offers you 6/1 on one of his horses in a Class 2 handicap, who came 3^rd on return from break in a Class 2 handicap and is going up 4lb in the handicap tomorrow, you take it.

York 2.30 – Don’t think too many front runners win at York, and not convinced Harris Tweed likes it here at York. I don’t think this is the right distance for Red Cadeaux but is the class act in this race, so this leaves me with Artic Cosmos. Another John Gosden boy who just didn’t go on soft ground last time. There’s also an interesting one here in Times Up. That form behind Fame and Glory is solid. Opinion Poll, Colour Vision and Eternal Heart have all gone on to win. Just a nagging problem that he has not run as well first time out, despite his immense C&D record. Hmmm. Don’t think I can pick. Grr. Tricast?

No time to do any more :(

£10.00 e/w War Poet 11/1 - NR £20.00

£10.00 e/w Bridle Belle 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Caucus 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 17/05/2012 - York Dante Festival Day 2

York, once again, proved costly yesterday, although a couple of big priced places numbed the pain temporarily. O’Brien, once again, proved I really can’t pick a short priced winner from his camp. The Fugue was stupendously impressive though. Coffee necked, croissant devoured and I'm ready for some more Yorkie, not for girls pain. Bring it.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone all out today for Day 2 of the Dante Festival at York:

York 1.30 – Racy (12/1), Doctor Parkes (11/1)

York 2.30 – Fencing (6/1)

York 3.00 – I many times has ‘Justonefortheroad’ never worked out @ 10/1

My thoughts later…

York 1.30 – Grr. Segal has already tipped Racy and Doctor Parkes. I can see why he has picked both, but I have a problem as I really fancy Judge and Jury today. DEE is still an inexperienced jockey, but I’m going to trust him to go sooner this time. He also ran wellish in this race last year and goes off a lower mark.

York 2.00 – Last year’s second Sajjhaa loves it here and goes well fresh. 6/1 looks tasty. John Gosden is hacking up and Izzi Top is definitely on the up. Will be a tight race.

York 2.30 – Segal has tipped Fencing. Not necessarily convinced but don’t want to back anything else in a small field. This is a toughy, but hoping a class act will emerge!

York 3.00 – Segal has tipped Justonefortheroad. Fury is always just a tad short and the handicapper probably has him but goodish value as a place job.

York 3.30 – Es Que Love to make all and nothing will catch him.

York 4.45 – Hmm. A tough one. A number of decentish Jumps Horses who I’m eyeing up. Cape Tribulation must have a solid favourites chance as has plenty of speed in him and arguably the class jumper in the race. Hollins, Kayf Aramis and Dark Ranger have all won this race before. My outsider would have to be Orsippus. A speculative punt based on previous C&D form, ok jumps form, low weight.

Total Staked £238.00, Total Returned £585.75

£10.00 e/w Fury 13/2 - WIN £101.25

£10.00 e/w Racy 11/1 - PLACED £37.50

£10.00 e/w Doctor Parkes 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Fencing 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Justonefortheroad 17/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Orsippus 14/1 - PLACED £45.00

£20.00 Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Judge N Jury 10/1 - WIN £132.50

£10.00 e/w Sajjhaa 6/1 - PLACED £22.00

£10.00 e/w Es Qe Love 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£18.00 Doubles JnJ, Sajjhaa, Fury, Es Que Love N/A - WIN £247.50

P&L @ 17/05/12:
£3,100.88
AntePost P&L @ 17/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 17/05/12:
£4,154.12

Bets 16/05/2012 - York Dante Festival Day 1

I rocked up to the York festival a couple of years ago with Desai Jnr and in 6 races managed to pick no placed horses in any race, cumulating in a horrendous £1,200 loss. On top of doing a Jay Desai roly poly on course, leaving cots outside peoples doors, trying to hunt down Patrick Veitch and nailing a KFC mega bucket I was left with a mental scar, so I'm always wary of betting at York now.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has tipped up:

York 1.30 - Space War (25/1)
York 2.00 - Barnet Fair (16/1), Baby Strange (20/1)

My thoughts later....

11.00am update...

York 1.30 – Flag Officer has the form lines, Saeed has the trainer record in this race, and I’m struggling to see beyond. Right Step got merked by the handicapper but Segal has tipped Space War.

York 2.00 – Segal has tipped up Baby Strange and Barnet Fair. I’m tempted my York Glory, but I might see how the market sees this. Absolutely hacked up over 5f here and stayed on very strongly.

York 2.30 – All the rage for Twirl, but as before I’m useless at picking O’Brien winners.

York 3.00 - Hoof It is the top rated horse in this and has won fresh before. The problem is Easterby is having a ‘mare. Quite a difficult choice to make as C&D from is solid as well, but have to write this one off today especially at 2/1. I’ve won with Mayson before and I go in again for a hopefully progressive sort. The other is Sirius Prospect. Need first run of season, doesn’t like Newmarket and conditions all set for him to bounce back

York 3.30 – Wide Open. No reason why Mica Mika won’t win again as penalty negated by jockey. Sticking with the jumps massive, Eagle Rock looks interesting at 16/1 on rock bottom weight.

York 4.45 – Hmm. Grizzle. 

Total Staked £232.00, Total Returned £126.00

£10.00 e/w Space War 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Barnet Fair 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Flag Officer 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w York Glory 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Twirl 11/10 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Mayson 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Sirius Prospect 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Eagle Rock 16/1 - PLACED £46.00

£10.00 e/w Mica Mika 5/1 - PLACED £20.00

£10.00 e/w Baby Strange 20/1 - PLACED £60.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£12.00 Doubles N/A - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 17/05/12:
£2,753.13
AntePost P&L @ 17/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 17/05/12:
£3,806.37

Bets 13/05/2012

Segal saved my bacon butty yesterday with Red Merlin. A last minute bet on Vow after seeing the market collapse, a cheeky forecast on Grumeti and Local Hero and a decent performance from My Queenie were the only punting pluses yesterday. I underestimated Our Jonathon, totally ignored copious money for Aiken and the Victoria Cup was dominated by the low numbers, though my picks still had no chance. The value of consistent stakes really really bailed me out...

Today Pricewise's Tom Segal has picked Furners Green for the French 2000 Guineas @8/1

My thoughts after a fry up...

Post Fry Up Update...Wondering how much to lump on Frankel next weekend?

Longchamp 2.40 – Hard to see beyond Beauty Parlour. A lot of chat about her.

Longchamp 3.10 – Dabirsim looks solid and I would totally overlook her beat by Dragon Pulse. Segal has tipped Furners Green. I worry about the draw and the ground, but I’m a sheep to him.

Worcester 2.20 – De Faoithesdream looks a solid favourite.

Total Staked £150.00 Total Returned £138.17

£30.00 Beauty Parlour 4/7 - WIN £47.17

£30.00 Beauty Parlour, Dabirisim Double N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Furner's Green 7/1 - PLACED £36.00

£30.00 De Faoithesdream 5/6 - WIN £55.00

£15.00 e/w Accumulator Beauty Parlour, Dabirisim, De Faoithesdream, Famous Name N/A - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 13/05/12:
£2,859.13
AntePost P&L @ 13/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 13/05/12:
£3,912.37

Bets 12/05/2012

Once again a jumps horse hacks up and this time saved me an embarrassing white wash. I wonder what stats are out there to show how well those horses who win staying flat races at the beginning of the season are those who have come off the back of a good jumps season. Local Hero, Il De Re, Overturn, Absinthe, Mica Mika, etc all ran remarkable races at Chester this week. Today looks like a tough day, but I've had a few good days so will take that confidence, bag it and ooze it over my punts today!

Racing Post's Tom 'Pricewise' Segal's bets today are:
Ascot 3.25 - Pravada Street 40/1
Haydock 3.40 - Red Merlin 10/1 & All The Aces 14/1

Will post my thoughts later....

Ascot 2.20 – Aiken looks a solid favourite, but I can’t ignore Dawn Twister who has some form behind the late Fox Hunt. Aiken was 11/8 this morning and is now 4/7 so the market is speaking. I’ll chance with Dawn Twister at the prices and may be worth forecasting A/DW as a cover. If anything else pops up will be a shock.

Ascot 2.50 – My Queenie has some decent form in some far more competitive races than this. Not convinced with relish the trip and that’s reflected in the price, but with Hayley onboard could be interesting. Free Verse will absolutely relish this trip and ground. Was also an interesting article about Pedigrees on soft ground. Free Verse ticks this box as well.

Ascot 3.25 – Segal has tipped Pravda Street. I missed the 40/1 but picked up 33/1. Not sure I get the rationale but never mind. It doesn’t look like there will be much pace in the low number stands, but it’s worth backing one high drawn and one low drawn. I really like the look of Nasri here towards the high numbers. 3^rd last year, proven(ish) on soft if excluding his last as Pontefract but is going to get a 7lb jockey claim today. Towards the low end, Tariq Too has been back all week and goes well on soft. Ran a decent race last time and form has been somewhat upheld.

Ascot 5.10 – Pedigree suggests Peace Seeker will be as good on AW as on testing ground, if not better. Was awesome last year, but does have a break to overcome

Ascot 5.40 – Have to believe Grumeti’s speed and class is better than Local Hero’s. Forecast it.

Haydock 2.00 – Not sure why the cheekpieces have been kept on Cross Kennon, but he loves it here although would love some more rain. Top weight so faces a tough task, but on his best days he can get close to the mighty Big Bucks, so will have a chance if turned out.

Haydock 3.05 – Our Jonathon is a top notch handicap horse. At level weights here at Haydock Markab has to be the pick.

Haydock 3.40 – Segal has already tipped Red Merlin and All The Aces. A tough race. A tough handicap. A good place to look in these circumstances is Pipe. I have a free £15 bet so will slap on Dream Esteem.

Haydock 4.15 – I want to bet in this but can’t pick the winner. D Nicholls’ horses are in dire shape but Beacon Lodge has won this race twice before. Red Jazz only ever run on GS ground once before but argualbly one of best and Firebeam bolted up over C&D&G in last race. Tough.

Lingfield 2.40 - Vow

Lingfield 3.10 – Going to take a huge punt here on Ed De Gas. There are some class horses in this race; Shantaram who was just beat by Model Pupil, but not sure he will stay. Rougemont, who beat Mickdaam amongst others. However EDG is a course winner, hugely unexposed, won over this trip so must hold a chance.

Lingfield 3.45 – Last one for today I think! Cai Shen looked hugely impressive in the Winter Derby and if was given a run earlier and was not forced wide would have had this. Beachfire is a danger and loves to come from the back and storm home, but might need this run after a break.

Total Staked £530.00, Total Returned £477.60

£30.00 Aiken, Dawn Twister f/c N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Dawn Twister 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Markab 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Nasri 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Pravda Street 33/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Free Verse 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Tariq Too 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Cross Kennon 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Ed De Gas 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Red Merlin 12/1 - WIN £255.00

£15.00 e/w All The Aces 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w My Queenie 12/1 - PLACED £51.00

£30.00 Grumeti, Local Hero f/c N/A - WIN £104.10

£30.00 Cai Shen 10/3 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Trebles N/A - LOSE £0.00

£0.00 Dream Esteem 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Vow 5/4 - WIN £67.50

£30.00 Peace Seeker 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 12/05/12:
£2,870.96
AntePost P&L @ 12/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 12/05/12:
£3,924.20

Bets 11/05/2012

The Chester Cup was never a big ticket item for me. That has all changed with half a grand pocketed in the last two days. Segal and Desai have roared back into form with only 5 losers, 4 placed horses at 15/2, 16/1, 5/1 and 6/1 and 4 winners at 12/1, 9/2, 13/2 and 8/1. Have to say it. The 8/1 and 12/1 were mine! Let’s try and rip Chester another hole today.

Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped two horses for the Chester meet today:

Chester 1.35 – Dubai Dynamo 10/1. Get on at Ladbrokes at 8.17am this morning for that price if you want it.

Chester 3.05 – Bubbly Ballerina 14/1.

Will post my thoughts before lunch…


12.30pm update...

Chester 1.35 – Tariq Too has been heavily backed all week for the Victoria Cup and if that’s anything to go by, Dubai Dynamo’s form behind must put him in with a chance. Segal has tipped this up. There are a number of other interesting horses in a tough race so I’ll stick with Segal.

Chester 2.35 – If I ignore the 2 outsiders and flip a coin it emotionally sway towards Brown Panther.

Chester 3.05 – I was looking forward to backing Vocational in this, but is now a NR. Segal has tipped up Bubbly Ballerina. She now gets a 7lb claim and looked like was running well so perhaps just stick here now that my 12/1 is out.

Chester 3.45 – Tentative vote to Mica Mika. Did well over jumps, recently so that will hopefully restart his flat form.


Total Staked £120.00, Total Returned £80.00

£10.00 e/w Dubai Dynamo 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Mica Mika 3/1 - WIN £80.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Kingswinford 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Brown Panther 6/5 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Bubbly Ballerina 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 10/05/2012

Genius. In my weekly update I wrote "Just need a cheeky little outsider in the Chester Cup tomorrow get me going again", and just like that up pops my 12/1 pick Ile De Re. My love of jump horses going flat racing over testing distances just went up another notch. Will add that one to Rite of Passage. The reason this was arousing was I picked Overturn and Tom Segal picked Gulf of Naples and Eternal Heart. i.e. I backed 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place. BOOM.


Tom Segal Pricewise picks for Chester today are:


Chester 1.35 - Absinthe
Chester 2.05 - Marcret

Will remind you he has not won a bet for Pricewise for 35 races, even if he has brought in a few tasty each-ways. Will post my thoughts for day before lunch...


10.10am Update...

Chester 1.35 – I’m not going to take on Segal’s choice in this. Absinthe - Jumps horse, decent trainer, horrid drink, handles the ground, goodish mark. 11/2 is a good price.

Chester 2.05 – A tough little race, so again I’ll stick with Marcret, Segal’s choice. I might have a saver on Questioning though as to me is the class in the field.

Chester 2.35 – Another O’Brien decision. Happened again yesterday when I backed Betterbetterbetter and came second. I’m not going to back David Livingston today and inevitably he will win. Instead I’m going to chance with Mickdaam. Drop in class and proven on soft.

Chester 3.05 – I imagine Gabrial will be hot favourite. I can’t seem to back a favourite at the moment. I liked the look of Glen Moss and his form. Hills has aimed him here and his old man used to hack up at this meeting. 


Total Staked £143.75, Total Returned £537.92

£13.75 Questioning 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Absinthe 9/2 - WIN £61.67

£10.00 e/w Glen Moss 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Doubles Absinthe, Glen Moss, Questioning, Mickdaam N/A - PLACED £195.00

£10.00 e/w Accumulator Absinthe, Glen Moss, Questioning, Mickdaam N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Marcret 13/2 - WIN £101.25

£20.00 Mickdaam 8/1 - WIN £180.00 (I backed this at 4/1 - Thank you Best Price Guaranteed)

P&L @ 10/05/12:
£2,963.36
AntePost P&L @ 10/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 10/05/12:
£4,016.60

Bets 09/05/2012

Tom Segal Pricewise tips for Chester Cup Meeting:

Chester 2.35 - Gulf of Naples, Eternal Heart
Chester 3.05 - Dickie's Lad

Will post my thoughts a bit later...

11.30am update....

Chester 2.05 -    Betterbetterbetter is a decent price at 5/2. I have no luck in backing O’Brien horses. When I do, they lose, when I don’t they win. Cubanita’s form behind Bonfire and on soft ground must put him in with a good chance at 6/1.

Chester 2.35 – Segal has tipped Gulf of Naples and Eternal Heart. I’m a huge fan of jumps horses switching to flat in staying events. Local Hero (nearly the other day) pulled off this feat and they are always well handicapped. Therefore Ile De Re 12/1 must have a chance with his form on soft ground. Can't forget Overturn, who I foolishly backed Antepost, but the ground looks against him.

Chester 3.05 – Segal has tipped Dickie’s Lad. I’ll tip Star Rover at 20/1 a solid C&D performer on a potentially nice mark.

Total Staked: £170.00, Total Returned: £268.95

Antepost Bets:

£20.00 Overturn 5/1 - PLACED £0.00

Todays Bets:

£10.00 e/w Dickie's Lad 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gulf of Naples 15/2 - PLACED £28.75

£10.00 e/w Eternal Heart 16/1 - PLACED £50.00

£10.00 e/w Ile De Re  12/1 - WIN £170.00

£10.00 e/w Star Rover 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Betterbetterbetter 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Cubanita 6/1 - PLACED £20.20

P&L @ 09/05/12:
£2,569.19
AntePost P&L @ 09/05/12:
£1,053.24
Total P&L @ 09/05/12:
£3,622.43

Week 12: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Initial Pot: £1500.00. Total Staked: £16,083.78, Total Returned: £19,607.26  = Profit: £3,523.48

The bridge across the boggy marsh from the jumps to the flat has cost me nearly £900 in the last month. Yes, it’s all profit, but yes, it’s painful, demoralising, annoying, expensive, frustrating, and worst of all Tom Segal has lost something like 32 bets in a row (excluding each-way wins). I’ve been looking forward to the flat for a while, and now I wish it had never come. The ground has not helped and Ballydole’s bloody pacemakers are popping up all over the place, again.

I just need to recompose and go back to basics. My stakes are wavy, confidence low and Pricewise aren’t helping. I’m nowhere near being banned by any bookie at the moment, but I always knew this would be a long term game with the stakes I started with. And yes after 6 weeks, I thought this would be easy peasy. Just need a cheeky little outsider in the Chester Cup tomorrow get me going again J

Bets 07/05/2012

Curragh 2.50 – I liked the look of Takar but so many of the favourites I pick first time back seem to flop. Might be safer sticking with a C&D winner who beat Nephrite last time out. Coolnagree (11/2)

Curragh 3.20 – Ishvana ran a cracker over C&D in March and am hoping Coolnagree will win the former race and boost the form chances. (I should wait to see the outcome, but I’m not sure the timings will worth with my plans today!!)

Curragh 4.25 – St. Nicholas Abbey is back in Ireland and primed to hack up here. The ground is only obvious concern but for value’s shake worth forecasting with Sharestan.

Kempton 4.50 – Could spend hours looking at this one. Perfect Cracker is now high in the weights but is awesome around Kempton and 16/1 looks value. Terdaad looks a decent horse in the making but has not run a in a long time. The other horse I have to back is Ashva.

Kempton 5.50 – Haamaat would have won his last race if it was over 6f. Was a quick time a looks set to go well here. Ray Of Joy last year’s winner may cause most problems 

£10.00 e/w Coolnagree 11/2 - PLACED £23.75

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£27.50 St. Nicolas Abbey/ Sharestan f/c N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Haamaat 11/8 - WIN £47.50

£20.00 Ishvana 13/8 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Ashva 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Perfect Cracker 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 06/05/2012

I’m back. Yesterday’s results may not clearly articulate that, but my daily bets produced a profit. My Ante Post bets all failed miserably. Tom Segal Pricewise had a solid place at 25/1 and I’m disgusted no bookie paid 4 places in the Kentucky Derby despite having 20 runners. (Maybe they did and I just blindly missed it). More damning as Tom Segal picked at 25/1 shot which came 4^th! Camelot was a star yesterday. All the hype was real but more importantly we know not to doubt when Ladbrokes are the shortest price bookie. It’s already happened at least 6 times this season. They are shortest again on Maybe today…

Newmarket 2.05 – A lot of the Triumph Crew of 2011 did me proud over the jumps season. Local Hero(12/1) didn’t manage to win, but he can make up for it here on the flat. Looks uberly well handicapped. Tom Segal agrees with me on this fact.

Newmarket 2.35 – Timepiece(7/4) is the class horse here. Cecil had two winners yesterday and TP is taking a drop in class here. This may not be all that easy though. Izzi Top looked mightily progressive but has now been off for a while and will have to concede 3lb today. Khawlah looks an even bigger danger, but will not like the ground. Came on massively from 2 to 3 yrs old and after two huge wins in Meydan last year might be interesting. Reading the notes from when she raced here on good to soft, it didn’t work out, so will stick with Timepiece.

Newmarket 3.15 – Tom Segal has picked Alla Speranza at 66/1 for the 1000 Guineas today! I’ve backed Maybe in a double with Camelot, so won’t go any further than that. Maybe looks like she’ll be tough to beat and Ladbrokes are yet again the shortest firm (Can’t ignore this). William Haggas’ records in big races is insane so Diala (16/1) must get a look. If you watch her 2^nd behind Lyric of Light must have a chance – looked unlucky and ran on. Think Discourse is the better of the two Zarooni runners. The other I’m tempted by is Mashoora (8/1). French Fifteen came close yesterday and their trial times show Mashoora the quicker horse. I’ve lost some Ante Post on Wading (Booo).

Newmarket 3.50 – Tom Segal has tipped Alben Star(14/1) and The Confessor(12/1). If Seal Rock is currently top of the market then Parisian Pyramid(16/1) is a bet to have. Ran massively wide due to stall draw in last race against Mirza and Seal Rock. I have no doubt would have finished very much closer and will do with a better draw this time!

Gowran Park 3.30 – Chrysanthemum looks the part.

Total Staked £220.00, Total Returned £172.50

Antepost Bets:
£15.00 e/w Wading 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

Today's Bets:

£10.00 e/w The Confessor 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Parisian Pyramid 14/1 - PLACED £67.50

£5.00 e/w Local Hero, Parisian Pyramid, Diala Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Alla Speranza 66/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Local Hero 12/1 - PLACED £60.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Alben Star 14/1 - PLACED £45.00

£20.00 Timepiece 7/4 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Chrysanthemum 8/11 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Maybe Camelot Double 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

P&L @ 06/05/12:
£2,516.49
AntePost P&L @ 06/05/12:
£1,073.24
Total P&L @ 06/05/12:
£3,589.73

Bets 05/05/2012

Pricewise Tom Segal from the RacingPost is on a 24 race losing streak and he has picked out 4 more today. Let’s hope he has some reversal in this and more importantly let’s hope I do. I’m getting butted at the moment and I’ve already lost 3 Antepot bets before the racing even starts today.

Newmarket 2.00 – A tough race. I’m veering towards Circumvent. Drop in trip, grade and fact has won on ground like this, puts him up there alone. Christophe gets the mount today and will go close (I hope). Need a boost like this to my form. Memory Cloth looks the danger to this.

Newmarket 2.30 – Segal has tipped up Sadeek’s Song. Al Zarooni’s record here is 28%!!! He pulverised Colombian who pulverised Poet on heavy ground last week. It’s an interesting bet, but we have Meandre and Dunaden here today. The former is the class horse in the race and Fabre has won this race twice before. The French could have a very very good day today!

Newmarket 3.10 – I’ve already got Born to Sea and Top Offer on Antepost, but I’m not convinced about either of these two anymore. Camelot has been shortest with Ladbrokes for a while now and we will find out how much they really know about Ballydole horses today. I might be tempted to forecast my selection with Camelot because he could easily hack up. There’s no real obvious class in this race and there are memories of St. Nicholas Abbey resemblances and worries about his breeding. The other O’Brien horse will be my first pick; Power. Dragon Pulse is a serious form line in the race and Power was unlucky not to win the Dewhurst. Could be an APOB 1-2. I’m ditching the Casper Netscher form now, after much deliberation. The other two who are interesting are Abtaal and Trumpet Major. Unfortunately I have much on across so many horses, unless a forecast comes in could be on the losing end even if I have a winner. If Power wins I’ll be all good as well as in and AntePost double with Merigo!

Tom Segal has picked Hermival.

Newmarket 3.45 – Tom Segal has tipped Night Carnation. I would have as well reading the form. The other is Mayson.

Newmarket 4.55 - This surely is between Mariners Cross and Noble Mission. Just depends who stays better. Mariners Cross and

Newmarket 5.30 - Rewarded has been heavily backed in this

Goodwood 2.15 – Vita Nova looks a class apart in this.

Saint-Cloud 4.50 - I've backed Kesampour for the Derby between 50/1 and 75/1 (albeit only about £7 on betfair) and am a huge fan. Can hopefully enhance claims today.

Churchill Downs 9.44 – Brilliant Speed can go close if reproduces from behind SNA.

Churchill Downs 11.24 - Not sure I can pick something out here. Segal has picked Went The Day Well. Gemologist is on the up and has raced on a mucky track before so might be interesting?

Total Staked £550.00, Total Returned £415.39


Antepost Bets:

£50.00 Most Improved 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Harbour Watch 22/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Power, Merigo Double N/A - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Top Offer 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£40.00 Born To Sea 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

Daily Bets:

£10.00 e/w Sadeeks Song 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hermival 25/1 - PLACED £72.50

£20.00 Mariners Cross 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gemologist 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Rewarded 10/3 - WIN £86.67

£20.00 Circumvent 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Meandre 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Vita Nova 4/7 - WIN £31.43

£40.00 Vita Nova 2/5 - WIN £57.78

£10.00 e/w Mayson 5/1 - WIN £82.50

£10.00 e/w Night Carnation 16/1 - LOSE £20.00

£5.00 e/w Power Camelot r/fc N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Brilliant Speed 12/1 - PLACED £34.00

£10.00 e/w Went The Day Well 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Power 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 e/w Accumulator N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Kesampour 1/2 - WIN £30.51

P&L @ 05/05/12:
£2,553.99
AntePost P&L @  05/05/12:
£1,103.24
Total P&L @ 05/05/12:
£3,657.23

Bets 03/05/2012 - No Bets

Colour Vision was absolutely superb yesterday and I was naive to think his super staying effort behind Fame and Glory would be curbed by the AW @ Kempton. Desai Jnr was not so naive. Thankfully Gusto's competitors were slightly held back by the surface, although I did call 1,2,3 in that race.

Still feeling cautious on the betting front, but inevitably that will all change at the weekend. THE CLASSICS ARE HERE!!! The ground gamble continues and my ante post bets continue to flop, but I still have a few cheeky ones left in including Top Offer and Born To Sea

Whilst I can't add any betting value today, I am hoping those of you love Ascot will absolutely heart the New Furlong Club. This is as close to VIP as I'll get in the immediate future, although arguably I'm just paying more, so no resemblance to VIP at all...

http://www.ascot.co.uk/furlong/index.html

Bets 02/05/2012

Some big races at Kempton today. I don't have time to lookie lookie fully but:

Kempton 4.20 - Gusto excels at Kempton. If it was not on AW I would look at Burwaaz and Bannock

Kempton 3.45 - Red Cadeux nearly landed a big prize in Auz, but Dunaden has now pipped him twice. He is clearly the class horse in this, but again we are treading AW and Thimaar who was mighty impressive over C&D must get the nod

Total Staked £20.00, Total Returned £27.50

£10.00 Gusto 7/4 - WIN £27.50
£10.00 Thimaar 2/1 - PLACED £0.00

P&L @ 03/05/12:
£2,478.60
AntePost P&L @ 03/05/12:
£1,313.24
Total P&L @ 03/05/12:
£3,791.84