Bets 29/02/2012

“Don’t have time to research” and “no willpower to research” = Jog on, don’t punt. Did I heed? Nope? Both days, I wrote this prior to betting, I returned donuts. I had a sneaky peek at what was being back last night and compared it to what I think today, but the real punting research will come tonight when we aim to dissect some of the juicy Cheltenham races. Darlan has been backed solidly over the last few days and Henderson has been praising the horse's well-being, but will focus on that tonight and publish the syndicate bets.

Folkestone 2.10 – Five Rivers. Warren has a great record at the track and won this race last year. Goodish form behind Prospect Wells, but the racing post is telling me not to back it as he’s had enough chances?

Folkestone 4.15 – There’s a old boy in this race in Miko De Beauchene who is very decent on his day and on a ridiculously low mark. I’d find it too hard to pick between Chapolimoss and Wide Receiver, so may have to leave this. Upham Atom was 20/1 last night and now as low as 6/1 on a decent mark.

Folkestone 4.45 – Start Royal vs Session Or Recession? Can’t pick between the two.

Think I’m going to sack Folkestone off. I may regret it, but meh….

Kempton 5.35 – This is competitive, but I’m hoping Sakhee’s Pearl and Megalala will battle it out at the front and Dunhoy will come from the back and take them in the final few yards, though not yet proven over this trip. Money for it last night.

Southwell 2.00 – Hoping Milgen Bay’s is the better horse than Ring Bo Ree, but also looking interesting is Seigneur Des Bois. Winner over 2f here on good ground and technically 3lb lower with jockey allowance. Money for it last night.

Southwell 3.05 - Lump Job Kudu Country?

Bangor 4.25 – This is fairly wide open, but I’m interested in a handicap debutant in Dawn Commander. Despite this being a big field the favs have won this for the last few years. He was 11/2 last night but into 3/1 this morning.

In other news, Paddy Power are now a bit worried about their SS Money Back Offer...

£50.00 Kudu Country 2/7 - WIN £64.29
£25.00 e/w Dawn Commander 3/1 - PLACED £43.75
£12.00 Milgen Bay 5/4 - LOSE
£12.00 Dunhoy 9/4 - WIN £39.00
£12.00 Doubles - PLACED £22.22
£6.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

Disciplined P&L @ 29/02/12:

+£90.55

Reckless P&L @ 29/02/12:
+£304.97

AntePost P&L @ 29/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 29/02/12:

+£701.52

Bets 28/02/2012

Nothing major going on today and no willpower to research. Segal tipped up Alan King’s Batonnier at 12/1 for the Neptune. I had to put a bit on. If you are following someone, you should not pick and choose. You should just trust in them if they are prolific. I certainly am not prolific, yet, or never. I slacked on Sunday and did not read the RP. Low and behold he tipped up Third Intention and Seabass. Had I have read this, I would no doubt have lumped more on TI and had the conviction to back Seabass. Yes, yes, hindsight, hindsight. Back to the Neptune and I really like Boston Bob, but, not sure which race he’ll line up for. Mullins does rate this horse though. Simonsig, Fingal Bay, Monksland, Sous Les Cieux are all decent horses as well, so it's an interesting call by the Guru. Think you can still get 10's if you fancy it.

Catterick 2.50 – Might be worth chancing Dane Cottage. Ellison is 33% here, cheekpieces may revive, never heard of the jockey though. Obvious why Flora’s Pride is favourite, especially with a 7lb jockey claim. And early money for Below the Deck who when last seen, looked handy beating couple of decent(ish) horses.

Catterick 3.20 – Saveiro, according to his trainer is not a bad jumper, except a huge error here at Catterick. If the trainer, who has a 25% strike rate, is right, he should have no problem following up under a penalty. Zaramix should not reverse the placings, but Storm Surge is interesting.

£6.00 e/w Dane Cottage 13/2 - LOSE

£12.00 Saveiro Evens - PLACED

Total Stake £24.00, Total Return £0.00

Disciplined P&L @ 28/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 28/02/12:
+£291.75

AntePost P&L @ 28/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 28/02/12:

+£680.26

We All Love a Bit of Cash Back

Another tempting Money Back Offer. This time for the Arkle. I'm already leveraged on Sprinter Sacre @ 9/4, so might interest me. The problem is, who do you pick? Cue Card who flopped last year, probably not, Peddlers Cross who there's been a lot of money for over last few days, or Al Ferof who is a Festival winner and who Ruby Walsh said there is value in backing, with Paddy Power. Will Sacre flop up the hill again? 

27/02/2012 Bets

If only I had backed the SP Favs at Fontwell yesterday. 6 out of 7 won!!! Again, I put it on a plate for myself by saying the favs do well at this meeting. Did I listen. No. No conviction. Meh.

Plumpton 2.15 – Alan King has a 37% strike rate here and only has one runner here today in Kings Bayonet. I’m willing to take a punt at 6/1 for a 37% chance. A decent(ish) flat horse so not without hope.

Plumpton 2.45 – Hows business can’t lose this?

Plumpton 3.15 – Velator. If runs like last time, hopefully the penalty won’t prevent a follow up. Rocky Ryan could be a danger on comeback

Plumpton 3.45 – I backed Deep Pockets last night at 13/2. Does well over C&D and Keevil does 26% well at Plumpton.

Plumpton 4.15 – I was looking at this race last night, thinking it was quite tough. On Khee has been backed from 7/2 into 6/4 and it’s only 8am, so thinking smash, or a bookie trap?! I was more keen on Songsmith last night, but not anymore. Market has convinced me.

Wolves 4.30 – Honey of a Kitten. Who named this horse? Is so far down the weights and reviving. It was 8/1 with Hills this morning, now 9/2. Vanilla Rum has won 2 races over C&D very easily.

£6.00 e/w Kings Bayonet 6/1 - PLACED £13.20
£12.00 Velator 2/1 - WIN £36.00
£6.00 e/w Deep Pockets 13/2 - LOSE
£12.00 On Khee 13/8 - PLACED
£6.00 e/w Honey of a Kitten 9/2 - WIN £44.40
£6.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE


Total Stake £72.00, Total Return £93.60

Disciplined P&L @ 27/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 27/02/12:
+£315.75

AntePost P&L @ 27/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 27/02/12:

+£704.26

Week 2: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Total Staked £1,636.50, Total Returned £2,319.16 = Profit £682.66 (41.7% Return)

Another profitable week! Nothing major, but, not many would say no to a cheeky £175. I’ve been ill-disciplined throughout the week, but, this blog is not about the pursuit of discipline, but about the pursuit of smashing a bookie to the extent they can’t take your liability any more. Discipline, however, is an enabler for this feat, so I need to fix up. You may have noticed I’ve upped the reckless betting stakes by 20% to a whopping £12!?

I must have bummed the Triumph Crew of 2011 enough by now but Third Intention emphasised why. I was hoping to have some serious ammo in the bag for the 2012 Triumph post this weekend, but may have just upgraded to a bow and arrow. Some may say this is quite accurate, I’d say, not if I’m handling it. I can’t build a solid case for any of them; Grumeti, Baby Mix, Pearl Swan, etc. Darroun is a dark horse (whispers). Not convinced that this bunch will be as strong as last year, but no doubt I’ll be proved wrong!?

For last year’s Cheltenham I teamed up with Fats and Hally, to create the DFH Pot. We were hoping, as we hope every day, we’d land a big one. We didn’t, but we did double our investment. This year, we’re adding a couple more people to the syndicate to add more hope, more glory. Will issue our punts on Wednesday night. Right, back to work!

26/02/2012 Bets

Some days my lack of discipline costs me, some days, like yesterday, it costs the layers. I backed Portrait King on Friday night and after I read Segal tipped it, I backed it again and after the morning line pundits bigged it up, I backed it again! On the flip side I am supposed to back on the nose, and not each way @ 5/1, so I hedged my profits. My doubles and trebles went well yesterday and no need for a hindsight moan. Just looking to break through the £700 mark now.

Fontwell 2.35 – I was massively impressed by Sir du Bearn at Fontwell last month, though not really the easiest race to call.

Fontwell 3.40 – Don’t think The Knox is a Cheltenham horse and clearly not a chaser. Back over hurdles could be the one to give Third Intention the most trouble. TI is part of the Triumph Crew and I’m attached to that bunch.

Fontwell 4.15 – Barbers Shop can’t lose this, can he?

Favs do pretty well at this Fontwell meeting so may be worth a cheeky reckless Accumulator on some of the favs

Naas 4.05 – After watching Hunt Ball defy the handicapper, again and again, I wonder if Seabass can do the same? Difference is, will be up against Tranquil Sea. Not touching.

£12.00 Barbers Shop 4/6 - WIN £20.00
£12.00 Third Intention 6/4 - WIN £27.30
£12.00 Sir Du Bearn 3/1 - LOSE
£6.00 e/w The Knox 6/1 - LOSE
£6.00 e/w Acc on Fontwell Horses (NOT THE FAVS LIKE I SAID - SILLY BOY) - LOSE


Total Stake £60.00, Total Return £47.30

Disciplined P&L @ 25/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 25/02/12:
+£294.15

AntePost P&L @ 25/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 23/02/12:

+£682.66

25/02/2012 Bets

No betting yesterday and bets may be limited over next couple of weeks (may be) until Cheltenham. I cannot wait. Kempton looks tough today but I think those prominent in the market at Newcastle could well. Potrait King stands out at 5/1 and Pricewise have also tipped it up. Minsk is running at Fairyhouse today and could be immense if translating flat ability to jumps. With that race and the Adonis at Kempton could see a huge mix up in the Triumph market. May also have a dabble on some reverse forecasts and the footy today J

Chepstow 2.40 – Teaforthree is proven on heavy over C&D when beating a decent Restless Harry. Chasing Grands Crus was undoing at Kempton. Imagine will be a short price and although Hobbs horses do well at Chepstow, he is not yet banging in the winners.

Chepstow 3.10 – Bendant beat Esteem, one of my selections last week. Could follow up under penalty and Dirty Deal was lucky to win last race.

Kempton 2.00 – The Adonis. Key trial for the JCB. Henderson and Nicholls have won this between them in the last 5 runnings and have Une Artiste and Dildar respectively both who I back over the last couple of weeks. Sadler’s Risk destroyed his opposition over C&D, but not sure can bet on this. Hobbs is a massive fan of Sadlers Risk, but I think

Kempton 3.05 – Pricewise has selected Michel Le Bon. If his horse returns to his best, must have a chance. Planet of Sound ran a cracker in the Hennessey and no reason won’t again.

Kempton 3.40 – Annoyed that Keys lost the other week. Grumeti is a horse I’ve backed a couple of times but can’t say I’ not nervous about Dodging Bullets

Kempton 4.10 – Another tough one. Looks between front two in market though.

Kempton 4.45 – I’m a fan of Semi Colon, and switched back to hurdles looks interesting.

Newcastle 1.50 – At first looks like an open race, but there’s one bit of form that stands out to me. Netminder. Finished 2^nd to an immense Brindisi Breeze and won the next by 23lenghts.

Newcastle 2.20 – Gansey won this last year and on better terms than runner up Categorical. Reunited with Brian Harding, looks like good place money.

Newcastle 2.55 – Again looks like it’s the front 2 in the market. Stormy Weather landed a pricewise gamble and up 3lb with jockey claim. Spiekeroog’s form boosted by a solid Bourne. Denis O’Regan will know Stormy Weather’s weaknesses and strengths so may have an edge…

Newcastle 3.25 – Pricewise has selected Portrait King and Negus De Beaumont

Newcastle 4.00 – Agent Archie

Lingfield 2.15 – Pricewise has selected Picansort.

Lingfield 2.50 – I back Oasis Dancer last night.

Lingfield 3.20 – Veroon may interest me at a big price

Lingfield 3.55 – Cut and thrust hack ups around here and no reason why won’t again

So much for limited bets!

£6.00 r f/c Cristal Bonus, Minella Class - PLACED
£10.00 Oasis Dancer 7/4 - WIN £27.50
£6.00 r f/c Semi Colon 11/2 - LOSE
£12.00 Grumeti 4/5 - WIN £19.20
£6.00 e/w Stormy Weather, Spiekeroog - PLACED
£6.00 e/w Cut and Thrust - LOSE
£12.00 Agent Archie - WIN £18.00
£6.00 e/w Gansey 4/1 - LOSE
£12.00 Netminder 11/4 - LOSE
£12.00 Bendant 2/1 - WIN £36.00
£12.00 Teaforthree 8/15 - WIN £18.40
£6.00 e/w Panjo Bere 8/1 - LOSE
£6.00 e/w Michel Le Bon 11/2 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Portrait King 5/1 - WIN £41.25
£5.00 e/w Portrait King 5/1 - WIN £41.25
£6.00 e/w Portrait King 4/1 - WIN £40.80
£6.00 e/w Negus De Beaumont 9/1 - LOSE
£6.00 e/w Veroon 33/1 - LOSE


£6.00 e/w Accumulator - LOSE
£12.00 Doubles: Netminder, Portrait King, Oasis Dancer, Bendant - PLACED - £60.83
£12.00 Trebles: Netminder, Portrait King, Oasis Dancer, Bendant - PLACED - £92.63


Total Stake £246.00, Total Return £395.86

Disciplined P&L @ 25/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 25/02/12:
+£306.85

AntePost P&L @ 25/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 23/02/12:

+£695.36

Bet365 are playing a dangerous game

From midnight, bet365 will become the first major firm to offer the 'non-runner no bet' concession for all races at Cheltenham and added a significant extra attraction with 'best odds guaranteed' terms.

I am going to get all over this. NRNB is a bonus, BPG is mad! Smash, smash, smash...

Jay Desai's Golden Rules: 2. Research or Jog On

After today's lack of research and corresponding results, it's time for this. I wonder if there's a correlation in my words written and race results. Doubt it. However, words don't/can't depict a race enough. There is nothing like a bit of RPTV. This costs money, but money buys knowledge and knowledge makes money. A perfect circle, right? Anyone who saw Samasana vs Pelican Rock on 07/02/12 knew that the weight reversals in their next race meant nothing, despite the words and prices suggesting otherwise, and on 21/02/12 video evidence won. Anyone who saw Kinglet fly home over 7f (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ED0yYfCQ7U) knew that a step up in trip would be perfect. Did he win his next over 8f? As Polish would say, does a one-legged duck swim in circles?

Like plenty of profit making industries, horse racing is based on fact and subjective instinct. Nail these, toss in a bit of luck and insider-info and you’re on your way to being banned by your bookie!

www.racingpost.com is my bible. Punting is banned without it.

• Horse (Form + Ability + Weight + C&D + In-Running Commentary + Video) x Trainer (Form + Course + Records) x Jockey (Allowance + Ability) = Acceptable to Punt. This way, there is no whinny excuse and violin playing for a flop. Any missing factor should stop a punt. I’ll try to add this to my discipline.

www.oddschecker.com is my trader. Punting at Best Price is just obvious.

• I've seen prices range from 14/1 - 33/1, 13/8 - 3/1, etc. You'd be ecstatic if you won £70 but pissed when you found out you could have won £165. Also good for spotting steamers.

There are many other sites, tipping lines, people “who know”, etc that can help, but once you know the basics the above is matrimonious. I know who the woman is...

23/02/2012 Bets

Bish Bash Bosh or should I say Whip Whip Whip. I’m absolutely against animal cruelty but the latest revisions to the whip rules feel like we’ve reached a sensible point between being Cruel to Horses and having No Jockey On Board. Again, a bit of ill-discipline yesterday with an additional accumulator and last minute bet following a shortening horse. Cost me another £20.00. All adds up! If only would have put a different three horses in the accumulator. Hindsight, hindsight!

Little time today. Shame. I heart Meydan, so does my bank balance.

Meydan 2.30 – Sarrsar Vs Capponi. Sarrsar 1lb less this time and was definitely not fully stretched last time. I hope my eyes did not deceive me. Hope there’s nothing else in the field but I’ve not checked. 9/4

Meydan 3.45 – Cash Luck. AUS Horse. Seen a few rave reviews. Fingers crossed 2/1

Lingfield 2.20 – Joseph Lister has a decent 10lb claimer. 6/4

£10.00 Sarrsar 9/4 - LOSE

£10.00 Cash Luck 2/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Joseph Lister 6/4 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

Total Stake £40.00, Total Return £0.00

Disciplined P&L @ 23/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 23/02/12:
+£156.99

AntePost P&L @ 23/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 23/02/12:

+£545.50

22/02/2012 Bets

Another okay session yesterday. I lost discipline with Accs, which cost me £20 and Urbain De Sivola finished in a dead heat, which cost me another £30 odd quid. But, till churned a profit, which is the main thing. The jumps didn’t do me many favours yesterday, but on the other hand I nailed 4 out of 4 at Southwell @ 2/9, Evens, 5/2 and 11/2. If only I put it into an Accumulator like Benjamin. Maybe I should turn this into a tipping service!? No, no plans to do so! Keighley had another big price winner at Wetherby and Railway Dillon really was an unknown quantity – bolted up!

Punchestown 2.00 – Cousin Vinny has not run in nearly 2 years. If is anything like he used to be should beat Won in the Dark who has not won since winning this 2 years ago! Tofino Bay’s form behind Stephanie Kate is sound. Tentative vote for the favourite.

Punchestown 2.30 – I’m not up to scratch with Irish Form so really should not be tempted, but Psycho looks to be running on a low weight in addition to jockey allowance.

Ludlow 3.10 – Esteem. Back over fences, should hack up

Ludlow 4.15 – Ere Alfie won this off the same mark last year

Doncaster 1.55 – I don’t seem to do well at this track. I thought that Ardlui was going to land a Juvenile hurdle at Newbury last year. Got that wrong but no disgrace behind Ranjaan and Urbain De Sivola. King is in great form so worth chancing.

Doncaster 2.25 – Quentin Collonges. Although the Twiston-Davies horse looks the better horse and looks like will easily step up in trip, just like yesterday not keen on the stable form at the moment. Interesting article in the RP this morning showing stats leading to the conclusion the TD’s will do well @ Chelts as not doing well at the moment!

Doncaster 3.00 – McCain has unveiled some huge unknowns over the last couple of weeks and I’m banking on the Weatherman being another. Obvious danger is Oscar nominee (the fav)

£10.00 Esteem 5/4 - PLACED

£5.00 e/w Ere Alfie 4/1 – WIN £28.00

£10.00 Psycho 7/2 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Weatherman 4/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Quentin Collonges 7/4 – WIN £43.34

£10.00 Cousin Vinny 4/5 – WIN £17.60

£10.00 Ardlui 11/10 – PLACED

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Esteem, Psycho, Weatherman - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Rowan Tiger - LOSE

Total Stake £100.00, Total Return £88.94

Disciplined P&L @ 22/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 22/02/12:
+£196.99

AntePost P&L @ 22/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 22/02/12:

+£585.50

21/02/2012 Bets

Yesterday I was a tad fortunate that I managed to tuck into the Teenando gamble. I went in at 7/1 and then remembered that I said I would hit Marisa with any steamers so I put another bet on at 6/1. The brilliant Best Price Guaranteed returned them both at 10/1. Not all bookies offer this and is sometimes worth bearing in mind. The other gamble Chookie Avon was butters. There was a move on Alderluck last night from 11/1 into 5/1 this morning and I remember backing this horse on Boxing Day a couple of years back only for it to be pulled up, but I must have thought it was half decent. Although, not sure my punting two years ago is a good benchmark. This morning Tom Segal put up Medermit for the Ryanair at 9/1. Was available at 9/1 between 8.00-8.30am. Not fully convinced by this. At the festival I have done okay over the last two years focusing on horses that have performed well in March at Chelts, not in December, but in March. Buena Vista @ 20/1 was the biggest winner following this path. Medermit is a mixed bag if you adopt this approach and there are a few smart performers still in that line up!

Charlie Longsdon has a 46% Strike Rate at Wetherby over the last 5 years, and 67% this season! O’Neill is 28%, Twiston-Davies 30% and Keighley 22% (+£30.68!!!).

Wetherby 2.10 – The Twiston-Davies horses have hit a wall, so although Swerwani Wolf is top of the market, really shouldn’t back a trainer in bad form, and definitely not in terrible form. I’m sure stats will show the odd winner, but can’t do it. Railway Dillon is an unknown quantity. Signalman might be a big price as fell at the last. O Crotaigh has been strolling home but has only proven his worth at Market Rasen. Kings horses are flying but not sure about Soir D’Estruval. I can’t bet in this. Too much going on…

Wetherby 3.15 – I’ve already back Alderluck at 7/1, so can’t go in again. Looking at it a number of these have a chance.

Wetherby looks hard today, let’s check out Taunton. Usually Nicholls dominates this (only strike-wise), but with reports of his horses coughing, maybe today is a good day to take him on across the board?

Taunton 2.00 – Nicholls has won this the last 3 years in a row! But as above have to take Nicholls on here and Urbain De Sivola looks a smart prospect. Took Ranjaan and Ardlui apart when last seen. I do want to highlight Definitive Memories as well; an expensive purchase who had an extremely impressive debut. No money for the horse at the moment, so sticking with the fav.

Taunton 3.40 – Great to see some big names mid week. Sire De Grugy must be the one to beat, but race a hard race on Friday. Doubts whether will be fully fit? Ski Sunday is a smart hurdler and I quite like the double figure prices available. I’m a fan of Edgardo, but in the Nicholls camp. Not sure why Highway code is 40/1 as has some good form next to his name, but must be a reason? I hope. Again Dee Ee Williams. 28/1 seems big bearing in mind close to Binocular and Thousands Stars on best form! Dare me must have a chance

Taunton 5.10 – Hobbs NHF Bandwagon Bertie Boru

Southwell 1.50 – Ingleby Arch will hopefully not battle it out with Cape of Storms at the front and take this. I think Punching needs 7f but if IA goes of quickly with CoS will be set up for Punching.

Southwell 2.20 – Surely between Pelican Rock and Samasana. The former 10lb better off than when losing by 1.5lenghts, but watching the race may well be not be enough.

Southwell 3.25 – La Estrella

Southwell 4.10 – Newport Arch has the better times next to his name

£5.00 e/w Ski Sunday 10/1 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Ski Sunday 8/1 - LOSE (Stupid boy)

£5.00 e/w Alderluck 7/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Ingleby Arch 10/11 - WIN £20.00 (BPG Evens)

£5.00 e/w Newport Arch 5/1 - WIN £43.00

£10.00 Samasana 5/2 - WIN £35.00

£5.00 e/w Bertie Boru 20/1 - LOSE

£10.00 Urbain De Sivola 8/11 - WIN £10.00 (Deat Heat so half stake - Boooo)

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£10.00 Acc La Estrella, Ingleby Arch, Urbain De Sivola - WIN £24.44 (Deat Heat so half stake - Boooo) - Basically was a double between La Estrella and Ingleby Arch. Hmmm...

Total Stake £110.00, Total Return £132.44


Disciplined P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 21/02/12:
+£208.05

AntePost P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 21/02/12:

+£596.56

20/02/2012 Bets

Carlisle 2.00 – Crowning Jewel has Bourne to thank for his short price. Bourne beat my boy Smad Place at the weekend and though 2 stones is always a lot to give. Has won at this course before and looks a good bet. However at a bigger price I’ll take a chance with South Leinster. Got mullered by Brindisi Breeze in the last who went on to win again at the weekend in an impressive manner. Trainer does well here so worth a punt.

Carlisle 3.40 – Do It Do It Do It For Dalkey. Big fan of this horse and despite being top end of weights, must have a chance back down in trip.

Carlisle 4.10 – Steamer alert! Teenando in from 25/1 – 7/1 and still shortening…I think Playing the Field will reverse placings on Et Maintenant, but that form line may not be the best in the race?

Carlisle 4.45 – The favourite looks most likely - 2^nd a smart Stormy Weather in the last.

£5.00 e/w South Leinster 9/2 - LOSE

£10.00 Do It For Dalkey 7/2 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Teenando 7/1 - WIN £70.00 (BPG @ 10/1)

£5.00 e/w Teenando 6/1 - WIN £70.00 (BPG @ 10/1)

£10.00 Diamond D'amour - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc Crowning Jewel, DIFD, Teenando, DD - LOSE

Additional Bet: £10.00 Chookie Avon 11/4 - LOSE

Total Stake £70.00, Total Return £140.00

Disciplined P&L @ 20/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 20/02/12:
+£185.61

AntePost P&L @ 20/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 20/02/12:

+£584.12

Week 1: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Total Staked £1,010.15, Total Returned £1,514.62 = Profit £504.12 (49.9% Return)

After the first two days, I thought this was going to be another failed attempt by some mug punter who believes he can beat the layers. With a cheeky 50% profit this week, it’s quite the contrary, albeit, a heck of journey left and next week I may have to revert back to the mug punter comment. I did some brief research about how to get banned by a bookmakers. What did I find? Nothing useful. Who actually wants to get banned by a bookie? Imagine not being in it to win it? Well, oddly, I’m still game.

I did, however, find a very precise article about how to avoid being banned by your bookmaker. Surely I just need to mirror this? It talks about bet sizes, bet timing, following big movers, betting on low profile events, specialising and general profitability. If I want to repeat the Coral experience I’ll need to take all of this on board… http://articles.submityourarticle.com/David-Duffield-8265/Bookmakers-115052.php There a couple here I think I can latch onto. Who will I target first? Rosie Huntington-Whiteley. I am going to focus putting the big moves on Rosie Huntington-Whiteley going forward. I will endeavour to make sure that Rosie takes me up on any horses from a gambling or high profile stable that go blue across the board on oddschecker.

Marisa Miller will not have me on her radar yet, but I’ve given her a couple of cheeky nudges with Zarkandar and Gorgeous Goblin. £317 return from £35.

Cheltenham is within touching distance and although I have £1500 in Ante Post bets already the boys and I are sitting down next week for some form crunching and pot betting (a.k.a the elusive retirement fund). The favourites are looking strong and if Long Run, Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks, Quevega and Sizing Europe all bolt up, I’m looking at £30k windfall. After Binocular and Zarkandar tore up this weekend I am slightly nervous about The Fly's chances, and Long Run, well, I still think Kauto is the only threat there and that will all be dependent on the old boy’s wellbeing. Clearly I will need to start laying some of these off to prevent any loses! I am getting excited, just a shame won’t be in a Cheltenham Box again!

18/02/2012 Bets

Sprinter Sacre blew my mind, Long Run brought me back to earth and Zarkandar (The King of the Triumph Crew of 2011) re-elevated me.  All week I was itching to back the treble, but bottle jobbed it when I revisited the weights. Hindsight hindsight. Blah Blah. Another relatively successful day either way. Some of my Cheltenham AP bets are now looking SOLID. Although, I said that last year and the year before and those dreams were not fulfilled! Should have tickled the Mahbooba/First City forecast. Nearly spelt it out for myself, but could not quite translate it. Village Vic was just pipped on the line which was frustrating but Il De Re finished the day off on a positive note.

There’s a divided opinion with Long Run today. Some bookies have eased Long Run for the Gold Cup, but I’m not sure that’s a wise ploy. Burton port has been massively cut for the GC but again I'm not sure why. There was a 10lb give and it was not the gruelling Cheltenham finish with LR will murder.

The Henderson/Nicholls Show it was yesterday, and I feel a round 2 today, with a bit of Pipe and McCain. Tom Segal has picked 4 horses today. All have plummeted in price. None more so that Eastlake. 25/1 into 8/1. 25/1 was available for 30mins, and 30 mins only. I missed it!

Ascot 1.15 – Have doubts about the step up in trip for Keys, but gets an 8lb allowance over closet rival Super Duty

Ascot 1.50 – Silviniaco Conti should have Bob’s Worth again. All the money seems to be that way at the moment

Ascot 2.25 – Segal has picked Viking Blonde. I like some of the previous C&D Winners, but I don’t want to take Pricewise on today but if I had to I would with the Minack, though looks mega high in weights.

Ascot 3.00 – Riverside Theatre should keep Kauto Stone at bay. Again, the money suggests this.

Ascot 3.35 – Segal has picked Eastlake. On the basis it’s come in from 25/1 and is 7/1 in places, something must be brewing? By now I’m sure you’ve realised I bum the Zarkandar form line. Smad Place won a nice prize for me in his last and I don’t think the rise in weights was harsh. I also like Crack Away Jack

Ascot 4.45 – Hobbs NHF Bandwagon – Uncle Jimmy

Haydock 1.35 – Favourites have won this 8/9 times so no reason to revert from the favourite, Une Artiste, who is another Henderson Triumph entry.

Haydock 2.10 – Real Milan. McCain does well here, but more importantly I like this form line.

Haydock 3.20 – Segal has picked Some Target and Sona Sasta. This is a tough race, but I had a dabble on Neptune Collonges yesterday

Haydock 3.55 – A tough race. Tamarinbleu feels big at 25/1, but lots of interesting sorts switching to Hurdles and As De Fer looks solid.

Wincanton 12.55 – Mentioned It’s a Gimme should not have been beaten by Waterunder, but Pipe in flying and Farrelly can do it again. 

Gowran Park - Rubi Light and Zaidpour should stroll home

Lingfield 4.00 - I'm only fluttering as it's in the Scoop6. Just like at Meydan  I look for horses that just need a kick a bit sooner. Gorgeous Goblin the only one I can see comments which say just did't quite get there, or finished closest, etc. Prices vary 16/1 - 28/1, so might be interesting?


£25.00 e/w Acc Rubi Light, Zaidpour, Silviniaco Conti, Une Artiste, Riverside Theatre - LOSE
£25.00 e/w Acc Silviniaco Conti, Riverside Theatre, Keys - LOSE 
£5.00 x 10 Trebles on above - PLACED £108.40


£50.00 Riverside Theatre 13/8 - WIN £131.25
£10.00 Riverside Theatre 13/8 - WIN £26.25
£10.00 Keys 8/13 - LOSE
£10.00 Une Artiste 5/4 - WIN £22.50
£10.00 Waterunder 6/5 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Uncle Jimmy 16/1 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Real Milan 9/2 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Tamarinbleu 33/1 - PLACED £46.25
£10.00 Silviniaco Conti 5/4 - LOSE
£10.00 Silviniaco Conti 5/4 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Smad Place 5/1 - PLACED £11.25
£10.00 The Minack 7/2 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w As De Fer 13/2 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Neptune Collonges 10/1 - PLACED £17.50
£5.00 e/w Major Malarky 16/1 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Gorgeous Goblin 22/1 - WIN £142.00


£5.00 e/w Viking Blond 8/1 (TOM SEGAL) - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Some Target 13/2 (TOM SEGAL) - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Sona Sasta 10/1 (TOM SEGAL) - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Eastlake 8/1 (TOM SEGAL) - LOSE


£16.00 Scoop6 - LOSE
£5.00 e/w Acc 7 fold - LOSE


Total Stake £416.00, Total Return £505.40


Disciplined P&L @ 18/02/12:

+£82.51

Reckless P&L @ 18/02/12:
+£115.61

AntePost P&L @ 18/02/12:

+£306.00

Total P&L @ 18/02/12:

+£504.12

If you want to get on Segal's bets at recommended prices, you have to do it 8.30am on Saturday, else you have no chance

Eastlake's odds this morning.

17/02/2012 Bets

Meydan was my playground yesterday. Didn’t have that lovely soft tarmac which would have cushioned the 6 placed horses into 1^st, but nevertheless ticked a lot of boxes. Fatthui asked me which bookies I was going to target the other day. That’s a secret (for now). I’m going to code name the bookies at the weekend and will give you an update on where I am with each. Clearly at these stakes I’m a long way off a knock-out punch,  but writing this is really making me think about my bets and the last two days have been positive. Let’s hope, what goes up, stays up. Two days in nothing to cheer about.

Newbury usually ='s The Nicholls/Henderson Show

Newbury 12.10 – I was aroused watching Sprinter Sacre hack up @ Kempton. I’m in all the way with this, but worth bearing in mind Nicholls has won this 5 times in last 7 years. Hold Fast was impressive @ Sandown and I just wonder. French Opera won this last year but surely can’t take on Sprinter with 5lb extra?

Newbury 12.40 - Tom Segal has selected a horse I wish just gets going a bit sooner; Tidal Bay. Nicholls has won this 4 times in 5 years with Tricky Trickster, Noland, Denman and Kauto. All week I’ve been thinking Long Run Long Run Long Run. Looking at the weights I now have a really odd feeling. The last time I saw Long Run giving weight away, over a year ago now, he lost to Little Josh, and that was only a 6lb give.  Convinced The Giant Bolster who scored nicely for me last time does not like Newbury. Burton Port was impressive in the 2010 Hennessey when last seen but you have to take faith in fitness. Chapel House – meh. And then we have Tidal Bay and What a Friend. I’m never going to doubt Tom Segal and I will follow him, but If What A Friend who was 2^nd in this last year is prepped I think he can have Long Run. Not a fan of Fergie, but I’m going back his horse.

Newbury 1.15 – I can’t back anything else, as I am already on 3 horses AP. I’m in on Zarkandar @ 6/1 and 4/1 on the nose already. I’m not going to include these bets in my P&L but I’ll track them on here anyway. And I’m on the Segal band wagon with Soldatino and Sire De Grugy both £25 e/w 16/1. I had my eye on SDG after noticing his 11l destruction of Empire Levant and the fact Moore has won this race 2 times in last 4 years. Bit annoyed when Segal crashed the price, but I can’t stay mad at him! I’m not going to look anymore, else I will back something else and Darlan could be class.

Newbury 1.50, 2.25, 2.55 – I want to bet I really do, but just can’t. May have a flutter on the Nicholls horse Cedre Bleu. No conviction in this though.

Newbury 3.30 – I’m not usually keen on NHF Races, but I have landed a few beauties. And I’m also keen when Hobbs runs one on the flat. Village Vic no exception, although The Racing Post tells me Gevrey Chambertin is brother to Grands Crus!!!

Sandown 3.50 – Ile De Re – Mightly impressive in last race, just hope progress does not reverse.

Meydan 1.55 – I think Mahbooba will do First City this time. No way Soumillon can leave it that late again. First City is running with an extra 3lb this time round as well.

William Hill are offering 7/4 on LR and SS to win. Whenever bookies offer stuff like this I always get very wary…

£50.00 Sprinter Sacre 4/7 - WIN £78.57

£5.00 e/w What A Friend 11/2 - LOSE

£10.00 Mahbooba Evs - WIN £20.00

£10.00 Ile De Re 4/7 - WIN £15.71

£10.00 Village Vic 7/2 - PLACED

£5.00 e/w Cedre Bleu 11/2 - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc on Above - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Tidal Bay 8/1 (TOM SEGAL) - LOSE

£5.00 e/w Acc Nicholls Tribute: Hold Fast, What A Friend, Zarakandar, Deireadh Re, Cedre Bleu - LOSE

Ante Post:
£25.00 e/w Soldatino 16/1 - LOSE
£25.00 e/w Sire De Grugy 16/1 - PLACED £125.00
£25.00 Zarkandar 6/1 - WIN £175.00
£13.50 Zarkandar 6/1 - WIN £94.50
£10 e/w Zarakandar 4/1 - WIN £70.00

Total Stake £275.00, Total Return £578.78


Disciplined P&L @ 17/02/12:

+£42.86

Reckless P&L @ 17/02/12:
+£65.86

AntePost P&L @ 17/02/12:

+£306.00

I should have asked Ben Symes to write my blog today. A £1.60 bet which returned £65.68. Good man.