Sunday 30 November 2014

No one will ban me at this rate

My only bans remain Coral, 888.com and Boylesports. 

I am having a shocking start to the jumps season and is reminding me of how bad last season was! Normally I have Dubai to keep me afloat but since they removed Tapeta the profit angle has gone.

I've gone from £1k punts in summer down to £500, to £150, £50 and now I'm moving to £10 stakes until I feel in control of the jumps. Might be a while but it will happen. It has to!

Bets 30/11/2014

Two Saturdays and two horrendous sets of selections. Can't work it out. For the first time in long time I'm in a loss for a season (this jumps one).

12.30 Fairyhouse - Kabjoy 5/1 decent

1.00 Fairyhouse - Allez Colombieres Evs will be a decent novice

1.30 Fairyhouse - Jetson 6/1 will thrive from this small field

1.55 Carlisle - Clondaw Kaempfer 11/4 is talented

2.05 Fairyhouse - Apache Stronghold 9/2 is a very good horse and Perfect Gentleman 25/1 looks a big price

2.35 Fairyhouse - Painted Lady 12/1

3.10 Fairyhouse - Ipsos Du Belais 33/1 to bounce back today

Saturday 29 November 2014

Bets 29/11/2014

Wanted to head to Newbury today, but alas, work, again. However won't stop me from punting :)

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has only tipped two today:

2.40 Newcastle - Tutchec 7/1
3.00 Newbury - Fingal Bay 8/1

Right lets make some moolah:

Newbury 12.20 - Is Carrigmoorna Rock is the best horse in this but not convinced has progressed and have to take on. I'm not sure how deep the ground is but I fancy Broxbourne 4/1. Will come on for last run and was a decent win, that said Aispas form is rock, but lets stay with the Hendo horse

Newbury 12.50 - Jumps Road 8/1 will be better for the run. Is on a low chase mark and can be exploited today. Has won at Newbury on heavy before too.

Towcester 1.15 - Not overly obvious on paper but King of Glory 4/1 is well handicapped and a little birdie tells me has returned stronger over winter

Newbury 1.20 - Nearly went nuts and back Count Salazar 100/1 as saw only few lenghts behind Caid Du Berlais in the Galway Plate and we know what CDB did! Bailey also has a 50% SR at Newbury with £16+ profit. Not sure it the right answer though. Using According To Trev as a marker Midnight Appeal 6/1 should beat Baby Shine 14/1 but I know BS has won here before and will back them both.

Newbury 1.50 - Hammersly Lake 4/1 could be very talented but I do worry about Home Run 6/1 who I backed last time out who is well handicapped

Newcastle 2.05 - At the weights and marks Aurore D'Estuval 10/3 is the one to be on. Destroyed a listed field last time. Sea Lord 14/1 (if bounces back) could be quids in

Newbury 2.25 - More of That is class but can't back at these odds, but maybe Lac Fontana w/o the fav

Newcastle 2.40 - Lie Forrit 6/1 and Broadway Buffalo 5/1 rightly head the market I reckon

Newbury 3.00 - There's only 3 horses I've been eyeing up all week and they are Fingal Bay 8/1, Smad Place 8/1 and Theatre Guide (NR). Both solid Newbury winners, on winnable marks and both go well fresh. The outsider who worries me is Ballynagour 33/1 who is class on his day and we saw that when thumped Colour Squadron by 8 lengths and Johns Spirits by 15 lengths and only lost the Melling to Boston Bob by 4 lengths.

Newcastle 3.15 - Island Confusion 5/1 on best form if back to best wins this

Newbury 3.35 - Monetaire 11/4 well ahead of mark if can get jumping sorted

Friday 28 November 2014

Bets 28/11/2014

12.25 Newbury - I'm a fan of Golden Doyen and the fact Karezak 8/11 beat GD hopefully means is a good thing. Def one of Kings's better juveniles

1.10 Musselburgh - Hopefully the ground is good and we will be Reaping the Reward 8/1 as should have won last time

Run out of time to look at anything else. Damnit

Thursday 27 November 2014

Bets 27/11/2014

1.10 Taunton - Chapel Garden 5/1 on this ground could be decent

1.25 Thurles - Max Dynamite 5/6 decent prospect

2.10 Newbury - Southfield Theatre 8/11

2.45 Newbury - Ned Stark 7/4 looks decent and progressive


Monday 24 November 2014

Bets 24/11/2014

Bragging about Fridays results led me to an awful Saturday....

12.50 Ludlow - Jack Frost 1st , Father Edward 2nd
1.05 Kempton - River Maigue 1st, Fayette Country 2nd

Double forecast 10/1 only bet putting on today

Saturday 22 November 2014

Bets 22/11/2014

Solid 11/1 and 5/1 winners yesterday from 5 punts put me over the £2k mark for the jumps seasons so good start.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped:

2.25 Haydock - Oscar Rock 14/1, Upswing 12/1
3.15 Ascot - Brick Red 11/2


My go....

12.25 Ascot - Ballycoe will be a better chaser and stayer in time. Parish Business 7/2 is a decent prospect and might take this. Hunt Ball is running but not sure what has happened to him.

12.45 Haydock - Wellforth 10/1 a CD winner of this mark and trainer thought was good enough to enter Grand National trial

1.00 Ascot - Polisky has been targeted at the race but the extra 5lb might be hard for him. Nicholls is quite bullish but I think and I hope Minella on Line 11/4 is better handicapped as I really rate the horse that beat him last time

1.05 Gowran Park - Tell Us More 1/4 is very exciting but too short to back

1.15 Haydock - Emral Silk - Trainer likes this one and 2m4f looks right trip. If runs to best could be seriously well handicapped based on one race beginning of this year, but likelyhood is one of those prominent in the market will win.

1.50 Haydock - The New One 2/5 too short to back and actually not sure conditions perfect for him

2.25 Haydock - Not sure can back Katkeau again just yet despite being well in and looked poor at Haydock last time. Uncle Jimmy needs a real test and might get that today at big price. Trustan Times 20/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 12/1 very interesting, but this a is tough race

2.40 Ascot - Faugheen is likely winner but not backing at these odds

3.00 Haydock - Most of these will be primed for today. Reckon last year's winner Cue Card 4/1 is the one to be with. Dynaste. Medermit ran a blinder last race and looks close to back to best and Menorah is def back to his best so could be a huge threat. SC is just an enigma and I reckon will travel really strongly into the race and then flop again. Might put a huge lay in running at low odds. TDS could also have a say. Hard race to call

3.20 Gowran Park - Wounded Warrior 4/1 went up against a decent one last time, but hopefully his turn today

3.35 Haydock - Lackamon is one for the Durham National so maybe not today. Masters Hill 4/1 looks seriously well handicapped and looks like he only ever runs well on first start of season but Shotofvodka 8/1 could win too based on form from May

3.50 Ascot - No No Manolito 11/8 looks a really good horse and one to follow

Friday 21 November 2014

Bets 21/11/2014

1.20 Haydock - Always have to take on a short price fave in a 4 horse race and Third Intention 5/1 who has rated in 150's a goes well fresh has to be the one to try it with

1.30 Ascot - Killala Quay 9/4 - Longsdon likes this one and could be one for Chelts festival

1.55 Haydock - The Brock Again 7/4 should win at the weights

2.30 Haydock - Nicholls reckon's Nickys' Golden Hoof is the one to beat but I reckon Grand Vision 7/1 who likes Haydock might pull a rabbit out. He clearly had a crap year last year, but if you go back two years he was a class act and may well find that form again?

3.15 Ascot - Grandad's Horse 11/1 takes a big step down in class and he has won a few C3 Handicaps of this mark before so should have a chance again today despite top weight


Monday 17 November 2014

Bets 17/11/2014

A few today at Leicester Nyanza, Three Kingdoms and Miles To Memphis. £100 treble 7/1

Sunday 16 November 2014

Bets 16/11/2014

A good day yesterday and was nearly a very good day for accs. Unfortunately Kings Palace was too good for S Sunrise. In the big race I had a combination tricast for Johns Spirit, Oscar W, Buywise and Present View so you can imagine how peeved I was when Caid Du Berlais won as the rest came 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th! Anyhow still landed some good accs.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost is on today too:

2.40 Chelts – Dodging Bullets 11/4 – weird choice for him as he bums Module so hope he not moving markets for a better price on Module!! Sure he wouldn’t?!

3.15 Chelts – Baradari 14/1 and Regal Encore 16/1

Right, my pop….
1.15 Fontwell – Meetmeathemoon will become a decent stayer but Wizards Bridge 11/10 is one of best in the Tizzard yard

1.25 Cork – Black Hercules 4/11. Expect to see him at Chelts in March

1.35 Chelts – Commissioned needs good ground according to trainer. STD reckons Emerging Talent 6/4 is one to follow and the form is very good

1.40 Punchestown – Pretty big jump into Graded class for Security Breach, might be worth a pop at 20/1, but Very Wood 9/4 is class and will no doubt see him again at Chelts festival

2.10 Chelts – Dunraven Storm is decent but does not want ground too soft and surely the Nicholls domination of this meeting will continue with Vibrato Valtat 9/4

2.15 Punchestown – Jezki 8/11

2.40 Chelts – Dodging Bullets 5/2 ought to win with conditions. Loves the track too but I do worry about Uxizandre. Module has a lot of weight to concede to DB

2.25 Fontwell – Kings Lad 9/2 looks pretty decent based on Newbury run. Hopefully not a fluke. Knight of Pleasure also looks good but will go for bigger price

3.15 Chelts – This is a ridiculously tough one. Exitas is chucked in, yes, but not at this level surely. Goodwood Mirage 14/1 has been aimed at this and was fairly well fancied in the Fred Winter so might be worth a pop. Vaniteux has it all to do off top weight so will pass. Not sure if Clondaw is up to this level despite low weight. If Pearl Swan 18/1 or Olofi 22/1 are fit they should win on C&D and handicap mark

3.50 Chelts – Aqalim 4/1. STD reckons will take all the beating but Hendo nominated Birch Hill as one to follow and really likes this horse


Saturday 15 November 2014

Bets 15/11/2014

Restored a good amount of faith in my jumps punting yesterday. Annoying I didn't take full advantage of having a feeling about Hobbs having a good day, but nonetheless still made a decent return.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped a number today:

2.00 Lingfield - Seeking Magic 12/1
2.30 Chelts - King Massini 33/1
2.35 Lingfield - Energia Davos 8/1
3.00 Chelts - Katkeau 6/1

I'm getting excited about the jumps season! Ahhhh.

12.40 Chelts - Royal Skies 14/1 was a poor fave last time, but with a claimer not ruling this one out as working well at home according to trainer

1.05 Uttoxter - Zeroshadesofgrey 11/10 ought to romp

1.15 Chelt - Sausalito Sunrise 5/2 is a big RSA hope this year

1.50 Chelts - The Package 8/1 runs well fresh and will be a big handicap in him this year. Chicago Grey 10/1 interesting and looked liked need first run. Remember watching Cape Tribulation beating Imperial Commander too? Hmm. Tough race as even Lamb or Cod could nail this if soft ground no problem as could Golden Cheiftan. Ahh allow this race

2.00 Lingfield - Only betting on this because Segal is and I can't see passed the fave Intransigent 5/2.

2.30 Chelts - My Achilles Heel; Oscar Whiskey 11/1 because the ground will help him more than most. Present View, Buywise and Johns Spirit are all worthy at the top of the market and maybe a tricast could be a massive price

2.35 Lingfield - With Segal on this - Energia Davos 8/1

2.45 Punchestown - Ipsos Du Berlais 9/1 looks good value (if you pray jumping better)

2.50 Uttoxeter - Pure Science 4/1 was a horse I followed to little avail last year. Hopefully better this season

3.00 Chelts - Big Easy and Katkeau 6/1 are worthy market leaders. Not sure which way to go but a shade ahead for Katkeau because of ground and trainer says looks better than ever

3.35 Chelts - Golden Doyen 9/4 has the experience edge

4.05 Chelts - Daring Carlotta 9/4 having a great season


Friday 14 November 2014

Bets 14/11/2014

Hobbs could have a VERY good day today.....

Chelts 1.50 - There are few C&D winners here who you SHOULD back, but I'm taking a proper gamble on Bold Henry 12/1. I've seen Hobbs brings back horses after long lay offs and if he does with BH and he takes to Chelts is seriously well handicapped. I know Anay Turge won this last year and also Pipe said "watch out" about Monetaire. Might need further though,

Chelts 3.35 - Balthazar King Evs

Chelts 4.05 - River Deep 10/1. On paper MASSIVE price. Beat a 133 rated by 3 lengths when giving 6lb. And that horse won a G2 Handicap of 137. Could equal a River Deep romp?? Sure must be missing something.


Others:
1.05 Newcastle - Molo 10/11
4.00 Wolves - Sneaking Budge 3/1

Tuesday 11 November 2014

Bets 11/11/2014

2.40 Huntingdon - Ned Stark 15/8. King says is an 'exciting chase prospect'

Saturday 8 November 2014

Bets 08/11/2014

Just a few, but nothing concrete today. Trying out a few things out and no expectations. Next week back in full.....

12.20 Wincanton - Gaitway 4/5

1.20 Sandown - Chris Pea Green 13/8

1.30 Wincanton - Horizontal Speed 5/2

1.35 Naas - Free Expression 9/4

1.55 Sandown - Baron Alco 11/2

2.30 Sandown - Foundation Man 7/1

Donny 3.35 - Plutocracy 16/1

3.40 Sandown - Caulfields Venture 7/1

3.55 Naas - Jack Slade 3/1

Sunday 2 November 2014

Taking couple weeks out

The jumps season has started as badly as it was all last season for me so going to take some time to read and watch videos whilst the season settles in.

The end of the flat season was also painful (as always) except Champions Day (as always)

I will be back :)

Saturday 1 November 2014

Bets 01/11/2014

Again only half bets today. I’m not in jumps mode yet and lost a wad on Breeders last year!

12.40 Ascot – Rascal 11/2 looks on a good mark

1.05 Ayr – Ardnahoe 9/4 has good chance to open account over hurdles

1.30 Wetherby – Turn Over Sivola 10/3 might upset the fave

1.45 Ascot – Monkey Kingdom 4/1 is a better chaser than hurdler based on last run so could be on good mark

2.05 Wetherby – Aurore D’Estruval 11/8 ought to win. Top rated, best form, vbe

2.20 Ascot – Manyriverstocross 6/1 goes well fresh and loves Ascot and just hope not too high in weights

2.30 Down Royal – At the weights Ma Filleule 4/1 has a massive chance

3.00 Ascot – Mountain King 6/1 can take this is settles better

3.15 Wetherby – Medermit 10/1 is too big, although the favourite is likely to win followed by TDS and hoping Medermit at this weight can pull off a win. If he had a 10lb pull in the Punchestown Gold Cup he would have beaten Boston Bob…

3.35 Ascot – Le Bec is one to keep an eye on. For this race though hoping Merry King 8/1 can go one better than last year

9.05 SA – Home Run Kitten 14/1
11.01 SA – Rich Tapestry 11/2

Maybe a Dank/Telescope Double, doubt it though

And maybe a Hendo treble at Ascot with Sign of a Vic, Chapel Hall and Clondaw Banker