Bets 31/08/2013

Only 30mins of a punting available to me. Annoying as love the Chester card but you need a thorough look through.

Tom Pricewise Segal will have to lead the way for me today:

Beverley 2.30 – Calendonia Lady 14/1

Chester 2.55 – Es Que Love 10/1, Alejandro 8/1

Sandown 3.50 – Whispering Warrior 14/1

Right quick glance...

Chester 2.20 – Captain Dunne14/1 has slipped to a mental mark! Front running low draw at Chester advantage.

Beverley 2.30 – I’ve had my day with York Glory and I ask no more. I’ll be happy if does win, but I would love for Excelette 10/1 to land her 2^nd listed race

Sandown 2.40 – Kingman 1/2 all day long

Sandown 3.15 – Integral/Ziblena

Chester 3.30 – Sun Central/Star Lahib - 12.10pm update just had a look at this card and Gurantee looks better handicapped than stablemate and far better price @ 8/1

Sandown 3.50 – Danchai 12/1 is of interest, but I also backed Whispering Warrior last week but was a non runner so am back in today with Segal

Sandown 5.00 – Silver Dixie 5/2

Sandown 5.30 – Broadway Duchess 3/1. Hughes bullish and form with Morpheus decent enough. Hefner and World Heritage were close long shot choices

Year 1.5: Update on Ban Jay Desai

Slack is an understatement when describing the condition of this blog. I’ve not yet fully updated the P&L for June or July either, but wow have I lost the plot with discipline since I started tracking again. Stakes have varied from £10 - £750, maiden punting has gone on the up, 2yr and unexposed 3yr punting on the up and some retirement chasing accumulators on the up. Good news is that so is the P&L. Bad news is it can’t possible last, so I need to calm it, especially as work and weddings are at the forefront of everything at the moment and am not investing the appropriate time in research. 888.com have stopped taking any of my bets and I’m ascertaining whether this officially counts as a ban. I want a letter if so.

Since I started tracking again:

Row Labels	Sum of Profit
04/08/2013	£243.15
05/08/2013	-£80.00
06/08/2013	£63.25
07/08/2013	£505.68
08/08/2013	£683.34
09/08/2013	-£50.00
10/08/2013	-£313.96
11/08/2013	£23.46
12/08/2013	-£151.25
13/08/2013	£81.00
14/08/2013	£180.00
15/08/2013	£354.55
16/08/2013	-£831.66
17/08/2013	£13.50
19/08/2013	-£50.00
21/08/2013	£1,048.44
22/08/2013	£393.34
23/08/2013	£263.50
24/08/2013	£267.52
27/09/2013	-£50.00
29/08/2013	£625.60
Grand Total	£3,219.46

One thing I must mention as it’s now getting closer to the Arc is Zarakash. My outrageously daft punt that this horse would win the 2014 renewal it even before it’s conception. Debut in next couple months.

The only other nugget of information I have to share in this update is something I taxed from the Racing Post. This is rockadoodledo form:

Bets 29/08/2013

Work has taken over life hence poor updates on here/time to punt.

Kempton 6.20 - Top Tug 11/10. Might lump up as not punted in a while. Probably not wise, but pah

Total Staked £510.00, Total Returned £1,135.60

£250.00 Top Tug 11/10 - WIN £525.00

£250.00 Top Tug 11/10 - WIN £525.00

£10.00 Top Tug, Toast of New York f/c N/A - WIN £85.60

Bets 27/08/2013

Took a few grand from York. Happy freaking boy.

Epsom 2.15 - Autopilot 3/1. Meehan handicap debutant looks interesting and the money is coming.

Total Staked £50.00, Total Returned £0.00

£50.00 Autopilot 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 24/08/2013

Thanks to Segal landed 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th in the first race yesterday and Jwala landed me a sweet arse 66/1 shot. Yes I backed 6 horses, but who cares. Certainly not me. Sham Desai gave me a beauty of a 20/1 tip over jumps too so another solid day. Up nearly £2k in last 3 days. Bosh. I’m certain the ground was better than the official going though as a number of horses went far better than previous form suggested. However the one thing that has stayed true all week, is the proven horses at York. It’s key. Gutted that some of the soft ground horses were withdrawn.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped up 4 today:

York 2.05 – Sirius Prospect 7/1

Goodwood 2.55 – Jacks Revenge 14/1

Goodwood 3.30 - Shamalgan 20/1

York 3.50 – Tropical Beat 14/1

A heck of a lot of punting to get through and only 1 hour to get through the cards. Argh. Maybe a Haggas acc on the cards too.

York 2.05 – I’m a fan of Sirius. I’m not massively keen on chances today, but Segal has tipped him and I can’t choose between the rest of the field.

York 2.40 – Tentatively Havana Cooler 4/1

Goodwood 2.55 – Magic City 6/1 C&D winner (easy) and Hughesy is back up

York 3.15 – Justice Day 20/1 – Risk of the day. Going against proven York winners, but form suggests price is slightly big. Saayer on paper beats him though with formline against Sacha Park. Hmm prob not worth punting on this?

Newmarket 3.20 – Villoresi 7/1 has form with Chancery and Suegioo 12/1 is one I always back in hope.

Goodwood 3.30 – Stipulate 11/1

Newmarket 3.55 – Hitchens 10/1 is another one of my favs. In good form and won this last year. Struggling to understand why such a big price?

Newmarket 4.30 – Nenge Mbboko 8/1

Goodwood 4.40 – Mount Athos 11/4 gets another chance from me. Hughes can steer him to victory at Goodwood (I hope)

York 3.50 – Hanoverian Baron 33/1 has strong course form on soft and that was with Sir John Hawkwood. The step up in trip will definitely suit. The age stat suggests have no chance but the form suggests a better than 33/1 chance. I would also have backed Tropical Beat like old boy Segal. Caravan Rolls On has cost me 4 races now so give up on him. Number Theory 25/1 looks high enough in the weights but I reckon might be worth it too on C&D form.

York 5.00 – Whispering Warrior 10/1. Draw a line through last race. Watch it and you will see why. Decent enough form to step up to the plate.

Newmarket 5.05 – Salutation 8/1 or Cat O’Mountain 7/1

York 5.35 – Hunstmans Close 10/1, Normal Equilibrium 8/1

Total Staked £830.00, Total Returned £1,097.52

£10.00 e/w Number Theory 25/1 - PLACED £63.13

£10.00 e/w Whispering Warrior 10/1 - NR £20.00

£10.00 e/w Huntsman Close 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Justice Day 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£40.00 Magic City 11/2 - WIN £300.00

£10.00 e/w Stipulate 11/1 - PLACED £32.00

£10.00 e/w Suegioo 14/1 - PLACED £50.00

£20.00 Villoresi 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Nenge Mboko 8/1 - NR £20.00

£20.00 Salutation 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Cat O'Mountain 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£95.00 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £362.02

£10.00 e/w Hanoverian Baron 33/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Normal Equilibrium 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Sirius Prospect 6/1 - WIN £98.00

£10.00 e/w Tropical Beat 11/1 - NR £20.00

£10.00 e/w Jack's Revenge 10/1 - PLACED £35.00

£10.00 e/w Shamalgan 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£70.00 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £43.77

£10.00 e/w Hitchens 10/1 - NR £20.00

£20.00 e/w Havana Cooler 4/1 - PLACED £33.60

£80.00 Mount Athos 5/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 23/08/2013

I nailed this day last year. I nailed Day 1 and Day 2 of this year so far so I hope I can again today. 

York 1.55 - Wasn’t overly impressed by Winterlude last time out and although likely to improve I can’t take 5/1. I like Gospel Choir 6/1. I’m a fan and have been waiting for his return. Kiama Bay 10/1 is also tasty looking back on the winning trail who was 2^nd in this race 2 years ago when 6lb lower!! Problem is if I back Kiama Bay I can’t not back Rio Rosanna 10/1 who is weighted to reverse. Argh. Annoying. Segal on Chancery

York 2.30 – Times Up 9/2 can land 2 in a row like Opinion Poll.

York 3.05 – Was really keen on Pavlosk but I’m getting De Ja Vu from Stipulate last year; Stoute 3yr fav getting mullered. Is 2/1 too short? Hmm. Segal has gone for Red Avenger. For me it has to be Dandana 8/1. It’s a drop in trip yes, but the softer ground adds the extra distance and we know goes at York. Might still have a nibble on Pav though.

York 3.40 – This will be a great great race but a hard one to pick the winner in. Does not help the tight bastards are only paying 3 places (except Skybet). Spirit Quartz 25/1 was a ridic price. Segal tipped him and now 16/1. Second in this last year and has the ease in the ground that most of these really don’t want. Roshdu Queen 22/1 first time cheekpieces looks a daft price if the stalls training has worked and the fact Haggas had a brill day yesterday. Miss Lahar 150/1 is not the worst long shot in the world. Beat Swiss Spirit here by 3lenghts as a baby. Shea Shea has won on ground with give but I would not write him off. However as I have a bet on Dettori to win a G1 whilst he was banned technically I’ve already bet on Shea Shea. Hamish McGongall 40/1 is also sill price. Could steal this from the front. Bloody hell I can’t shorten my shortlist and still have Jwala 66/1, Kingsgate Native and Moviesta on it. I don’t know what to do. Erm, give up. No more time to look L

York 4.55 – King George River 20/1 and Masarah 50/1. The latter is very speculative but finally back in in more realistic company.

This looks like a hard day. Loads more racing elsewhere but no time to look. Good luck

Few more for the evening…

Goodwood 6.45 – Nardin 4/1

Goodwood 7.20 – Six Wives 5/2

Hamilton 7.05 – Special Meaning looks a decent sort but I reckon Noble Alan 9/2 w/o SM might be better value?

Total Staked £923.50, Total Returned £1,187.00

£5.00 e/w Isthereadifference 11/1 - WIN £85.00

£5.00 e/w Wait No More 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£65.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Gospel Choir 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Quixote 33/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Come on Blue Chip 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Kiama Bay 10/1 - PLACED £32.50

£10.00 e/w Rio's Rossana 9/1 - PLACED £32.50

£10.00 e/w Miss Lahar 150/1 - NR £20.00

£10.00 e/w Hamish Mcgonagall 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Jwala 66/1 - WIN £812.00

£10.00 e/w Masharah 50/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w King George River 20/1 - PLACED £60.00

£117.50 Derbyshire 11/4 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Muharrib 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Pavolsk 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Rosdhu Queen 20/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Kingsgate Choice 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Moviesta 6/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Noble Alan 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Chancery 10/1 - WIN £145.00

£20.00 Red Avenger 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Spirit Quartz 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Danadana 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£78.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Nardin 4/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Six Wives 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 22/08/2013

Oh I knew you worth the lump Telescope. Solid day yesterday rounded of by blindly backing another Fanshawe winner at 9/2.  Again such little time today to research anything in detail L

York 1.55 – Segal has gone for Nezar and Tobougg Happy. I’m torn between Sleep King, Ventura Mist and Viva Verglas. Hmm. Can I back a quarter of the field. Probably not wise. And then there is Miracle of Medinah who was beaten at Goodwood (good trend stat on that) and form franked by Treaty of Paris and Bahamian Heights. Hmmm. It’s tough.

York 2.30 – Lucky Kristale 11/4

York 3.05 – I’m with Segal on this. Frog Hollow 14/1. Wentworth needs cut in the ground according to Hughesy and all his rides are given an extra allowance of pounds at Goodwood becsaue of his mastery there.

York 3.40 – I’m convinced this is between The Fugue and Venus De Milo. Just don’t know which way round. Argh. Paddy Power giving money back if 2^nd to fav so perhaps back both?

York 4.20 – Say and Our Obssession look the obvious ones. I might be bold an tickle Bite of The Cherry 50/1 on betfair. Goes very well at York, but might well find it hard against more progressive 3yr olds.

York 4.55 – Very tough. Bound to be one unexposed 3yr old; perhaps Ghasabah. If not Shesastar 15/2 of interest.

Last race at Wolves - blind back Fanshawe.

Total Staked £575.00, Total Returned £968.34

£20.00 Lucky Kristale 11/4 - WIN £75.00

£20.00 Venus De Milo (MB if 2nd to The Fugue) 9/4 - PLACED £20.00

£20.00 The Fugue 9/4 - WIN £65.00

£10.00 e/w The Fugue / Venus De Milo R f/c N/A - WIN £32.25

£40.00 Lucky Kristale 11/4 - WIN £150.00

£20.00 Our Obsession 7/2 - WIN £83.00

£25.00 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £157.34

£10.00 e/w Tobougg Happy 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Frog Hollow 12/1 - PLACED £34.00

£10.00 e/w Nezar 12/1 - PLACED £40.00

£10.00 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £68.00

£10.00 e/w Ventura Mist 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Sleeper King 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Viva Verglas 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Miracle of Medinah 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Ghasabah 5/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Sheastar 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£92.50 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £243.75

Bets 21/08/2013

No time to deep dive today so a brief punt.

York 1.55 – Goldream 9/1, Lady Gibraltar 12/1. Segal has gone for Barnet Fair 11/1

York 3.05 – Back with age group Telescope 7/4. Might be hefty.

York 3.40 – Segal has gone for Trading Leather 7/1. I have no time to make a decent judgement call

York 4.20 – Blue Bajan 20/1, High Office 25/1, Suraj 12/1

York 4.55 – Bahamian Heights 12/1

Midday update...Just checked my RP tracker and on there are Barnet Fair, Goldream, Tax Free & Telescope. Hmm maybe a small acc needed.

Total Staked £790.00, Total Returned £1,838.44

£500.00 Telescope 7/4 - WIN £1375.00

£25.00 e/w Hillstar 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 If So 9/2 - WIN £110.00

£10.00 e/w Trading Leather 6/1 - PLACED £25.00

£10.00 e/w Bahamian Heights 12/1 - WIN £195.00

£10.00 e/w Barnet Fair 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £98.44

£10.00 e/w Suraj 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w High Office 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Blue Bajan 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Goldream 25/1 - PLACED £35.00

£10.00 e/w Lady Gibraltar 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 19/08/2013

Thirsk 3.30 - Not sure how soft the ground will be, but the softer the better for Kuwait Star 16/1. Goes well here and Fanning lined up for this.

Total Staked £30.00, Total Returned £0.00

£15.00 e/w Kuwait Star 12/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 17/08/2013

I got carried away yesterday with the Gosden horse who was beat a long way out. Losing £750 on a single bet is daft. Wipes out all profit from week. I was basically going double or quits. Fail. Today I’m all over 3 year olds taking on the older ones.

Newmarket 1.50 – Gender Agenda 12/1. That form with Feedyah and additional 3lbg claim from Dazza means this a decent starting handicap mark

Newmarket 2.20 – Rylee Mooch 10/1 is in really good form and has place chance at minimum

Doncaster 2.30 – PsIloveyou Sea The Stars 10/3

Newbury 2.40 – This is a big step down in class for Red Cadeaux and the price is sooo tempting, but a 6lb penalty is surely too much. Dunlop is in cracking form which makes it harder. Aiken looks like a worth favourite but I really ignored the Irish Derby form a long time and can’t now ignore the tie in with Cap O Rushes even though still convinced Excess Knowledge should have thumped him. So Testudo 16/1 is the pick. 3yr olds go well in this.

Newmarket 2.55 – Has to be one of the hardest races of the day. Hasopop 11/1 ahs been running with credit since win over C&D and again has good place prospects at minimum. Ninjago has been frustrating since a good win for me at Ascot. Ahern’s 25/1 blinkers have had no impact but has run best two races here over C&D. Price is too big compared to Ninjago on previous form. Jumping out stalls has been the issue previously. Never had those problems without the blinkers.

Newbury 3.15 – I’ve been wanting to back Soft Falling Rain since Dubai but for whatever reason was pulled out of the summer meetings. At the weights and proven over C&D and big man Johnny Tawhid 9/2 is too good to ignore

Doncaster 3.40 – I took Smarty Socks on last time with Siruis Prospect and it was the right thing to do. He is a York horse and even though is top notch form have to take on again on this mark. Two 3 yr olds I like. Shebebi 4/1 the obvious one with the Ashaad and Snowboarder form, but the C&D winner Jamesbo’s Girl 40/1 who has been totally out of sorts can bounce back. Berry had a 14/1 winner yesterday; hopefully a sign stable coming back into form.

Newbury 3.50 – If you put a line through Secret Talent 9/1 last run looks very interesting at this level. Glen Moss 11/2 back down in class has the best chance. Johnny again!

Doncaster 4.15 – Dungannon 7/1 was a ridiculous price last night. I managed to get 7/1. First time pieces to exploit a low mark on a track he loves. Cheeky Balding.

Doncaster 4.45 – I put £110 on Shwaiman 4/1 last night. The form is rock as is Fanshawe right now and another 3yr old for my portfolio today

Newmarket 5.05 – Hold on Tight 11/10. Solid.

Total Staked £634.00, Total Returned £647.50

£10.00 e/w Testudo 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Tawhid 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 Glen Moss 11/2 - WIN £97.50

£15.00 Secret Talent 9/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Gender Agenda 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Rylee Mooch 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Shebebi 4/1 - WIN £110.00

£85.00 e/w Acc N/A - LOSE £0.00

£25.00 e/w Dungannon 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Hasopop 11/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Ahern 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 e/w Jamesbo's Girl 40/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Psiloveyou 7/2 - LOSE £0.00

£12.00 e/w Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

£100.00 Shwaiman 4/1 - WIN £440.00

£80.00 Hold On Tight 6/5 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 16/08/2013

Gold Hunter was very disappointing yesterday, especially after Paradise Park won easily enough. Nice win that. Annoyingly I feared Seek Again just like I feared Morpheus in the last race but hey ho, one day one day. I still believe.

Nottingham 2.00 – Makhfar 8/11. Gosden/Buick. Middle Park Entry. Decent debut – last one off the bridle and I’m sorry, but Frankie I’m not sure you should have waited that long. Little else to worry about with the non runner. Looks like the big bet for the day.

Newbury 3.55 – Wind Fire has arguably produced the most and tackled the harder races. Autumns Blush and Libourne Lass scare me when I draw lines with Princess Noor, but at 5f I opt of Wind Fire 5/6 (Insurebet 2 places)

Newbury 4.30 – Assembly 2/1 (Insurebet 2 places) Not sure why I feel nervous about this as looks another handful ahead of the handicapper. Secret Missile scares me a tad which is why taken a point off for the insurance

Total Staked £1050.00, Total Returned £218.34

£750.00 Makhfar 8/11 - LOSE £0.00

£25.00 Wind Fire (Insure 2) 5/6 - WIN £45.84

£25.00 Assembly (Insure 2) 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Treble 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 e/w Midnight Rider 6/1 - PLACED £115.00

£25.00 e/w Midnight Rider 6/1 - PLACED £57.50

£25.00 e/w Lady Liz 16/1 - LOSE £0.00

2.05 pm update...Bad bad run by Makhfar. Was beat a long way out. Never settled. Deano has pointed by in the direction of Midnight Rider 6/1 Newmarket 6.00pm. Was flying home with the winner in last race and looked pretty damn unlucky.

5.00pm update...I'm chasing, but if the money for Lady Liz comes at Catterick 6.40 I'm on it. Interesting mark I say but want connections to back that up.

Bets 15/08/2013

Salisbury 2.50 – Fallon’s only ride here, Cumani is in hot form and I’m pushing to get banned so Paradise Park 10/11

Newmarket 4.20 – Tied in with Paradise Park, Gold Hunter 9/4 looks solid. The form is very strong, however I do worry about Seek Again as Gosden is clearly in form and I’m struggling to figure out if SA is well handicapped based on run against VDN. I don’t think so as won by much large margin than on paper, but will stick with Gold Hunter.

Newmarket 4.50 – Silver Dixie 11/4 has strong from behind Retirement Plan and Goodwood Mirage and won very easily over C&D before that. Noseda hasn’t had a winner in a while but hoping no unexposed annoyances.

Total Staked £600.00, Total Returned £954.55

£500.00 Paradise Watch 10/11 - WIN £954.55

£25.00 Gold Hunter 9/4 - LOSE £0.00

£25.00 Silver Dixie 3/1 - PLACED £0.00

£25.00 e/w E/W Treble 25/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 14/08/2013

Gosden delivered once again. Thanks old boy. Can he deliver 5 today? He landed 4/4 the other day. I'm not looking at the card as don't have time so here goes:

Salisbury 3.55 - Gertrude Versed 12/1
Yarmouth 5.05 - Epic Voyage 3/1
Kempton 7.15 - Likleihood 15/8
Yarmouth 7.35 - Ruffled 13/8
Kempton 7.45 - Moma Lee 11/2

The one card I have looked at is:

Salisbury 3.20: Moore has been vexing me of late, but I stick with him as Russian Realm 7/4 looks well handicapped based on what a number of these did. Notably Remote beating Baltic Knight by 6 lengths.

Total Staked £156.00, Total Returned £336.00

£5.00 e/w Gosden Acc N/A - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Gosden Trebles N/A -  £0.00

£96.00 Russian Realm 7/4 - WIN £336.00

Bets 13/08/2013

Another short price burn out yesterday. Looking back at what others had tipped, looked like a right result for bookies. Go for another one today? Don't let us down Gosden! 8 winners in last 10!

Nottingham 6.35 – Fledged Evs

Total Staked £100.00, Total Returned £181.00

£50.00 Fledged 6/5 - WIN £95.00

£50.00 Fledged 4/5 - WIN £86.00

Bets 12/08/2013

Bloody missed another Gosden sitter today.

Windsor 7.40 – Regal Silk Evs looks as good as Regal Hawk. They both beat Hassle and Regal Silk is on the same mark as Hawk on debut. The only really danger I can see it the Hannon horse but that’s a NR. I’m not £400 excited as on Regal Hawk, but hopefully reproduce the same effort as over C&D last time.

Total Staked £151.25, Total Returned £0.00

£50.00 Regal Silk Evs - PLACED £0.00

£51.25 Regal Silk 10/11 - PLACED £0.00

£50.00 Regal Silk, Fledged Double N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 11/08/2013

Yesterday was a prime example of why not to lump. I did on two horses and they both flopped. This then cancelled out the 7/1 and 11/2 winners. Ridic. I've started updating P&L again. Have a lot of back tracking to do, but i'll do it!

France today has one incredible line up.

I think it's worth ticking a Gosden e/w double today. Elusive Kate and Pomology. Gosden is bang in form now. 6 winners from last 7 runners!!!!

Deauville 2.45 - I really can't see past Moonlight Cloud 3/1. As long as there is no hamperage feels like a solid enough bet. However It's def not a lump job. It's going to be a great tactical race and if Moonlight is covered up, able to get out without being hampered, produced late, but not too late I think will win this. Two big ifs in there though!

Curragh 4.15 - Sea Siren Evs. Slade Power will have to be seriously good to overcome the penalty. If we use Russian Soul as a marker Sea Siren wins either way. Just hope the ground is quick enough.

Total Staked £264.04, Total Returned 287.50

£50.00 Moonlight Cloud 11/4 - WIN £187.50 £94.04 Sea Siren 11/10 - LOSE £0.00 £50.00 Moonlight Cloud, Sea Siren Double N/A - LOSE £0.00 £10.00 e/w Pomology, Elusive Kate Double N/A - LOSE £0.00 £50.00 Sea Siren (Lay) Evs - WIN £100.00

Bets 10/08/2013

When a horse runs over C&D and gets held up and loses and then runs again over C&D as a front runner and beats a decent field you'd think the jockey and trainer would know what to do next time over C&D. When the horse in question is 18/1 and the horse it beat over C&D when front running is 6/1 market leader you think hello, must be a bit of value here. When you then realise the 18/1 is more than half a dozen pounds better off, you think bonus. When the jockey then holds the horse up nad loses you think all sorts of words that I would not bludgeon this blog with. And to rub it in the two horses that front ran won the freaking race.

Tom Pricewise Segal is on holiday today so I'm not touching Pricewise tips today. I'm on implementation day shift which means if we have no issues this morning I can focus fully on punting.

Ascot 1.30 - Broxbourne should not be favourite in this as Homeric 11/2 is 8lb better off with this rival this time and also no offense to Lisa Allpress, but who are you? I might get my comeuppance for that but whatever

Haydock 1.45 - Graphic 7/1 has a interesting combo with O'Brien and Haggas. If you ignore last race then must have chance. Hoping Ascription finds the ground too quick

Ascot 2.05 - I can't pick between Racy and Steps so maybe just a small reverse f/c 15/1 for Shegar banter

Haydock 2.20 - Sennockian Star 5/1 has helped me land a few bets through his form. Has a big chance is this. Interesting to also see how well 3year olds do in this race! I would have backed him without that stat however.

Ascot 2.40 - Seems mental to take on a Johnston mob, but half the jocks are unknown to me. However I really like the look of Chesterfield 10/3. Was a really strong performance last time out and the front two were 5 lengths ahead of the rest. I hope Manning can pull this off!

Haydock 2.55 - I think the world of Telescope 8/13. Have since 27/09/12. This is a tough race for a horse so lightly raced but the market is not suggesting anything else but a Telescope win and I can't oppose.

Newmarket 3.00 - Sadiq was well fancied last time but Ningara 9/2 also came in for late support and brushed Sadiq aside. Solid enough form to suggest can go close.

Newmarket 3.35 - Tentatively Wedding Ring 4/1

Haydock 5.05 - Salutation 11/2 is a confusing price as I think the handicapper has been slightly more lenient than with Big Thunder. Pethers Moon looks class so the form is good enough for me. Dare To Acheive scares me but doesn't look well handicapped. I remember landing a sweet double with Sun Central and Gospel Choir this time last year based on form together. Today Salutation and Ningara is the pick!

Newmarket 5.20 - Majestic Moon went on to win a decent handicap at Goodwood last week. That form points back to Veeraya 8/1

This shows the problem with lumping on horses....

Total Staked £800.00, Total Returned £486.04

£20.00 Homeric 11/2 - WIN £130.00

£20.00 Graphic 7/1 - WIN £160.00

£10.00 e/w R f/c Racy/Steps 15/1 - LOSE £0.00

£40.00 Sennockian Star 9/2 - PLACED £0.00

£150.00 Chesterfield 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 Night Song 11/2 - WIN £65.00

£150.00 Telescope 8/13 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Ningara 9/2 - LOSE £0.00

£50.00 Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00

£260.00 Accs N/A - PLACED £131.04

£20.00 Tassel 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Veeraya 7/1 - LOSE £0.00

£20.00 Salutation 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 09/08/2013

No time to punt and will be working late. However I've had a 5 minute gander at one of the last races of the day:

Newmarket 8.20 - My Kingdom 18/1. C&D winner. Needs to run/steal it from the front. If the other horse all hold up which most of them do, then bigger chance than the odds suggest. Nardin would have obviously improved as a 3yr old, but at the weights My Kingdom should not be opposite ends of the betting table

Total Staked £50.00, Total Returned £0.00

£25.00 e/w My Kingdom 18/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 08/08/2013

Fair play to Desai Junior. Two winners yesterday at 11/4 and 2/1 put him in the plus. I got home at 8.30pm and Rob Gamblor Kanfer asked for thoughts on 9.00pm Kempton and so I gave them! Ha unreal. Not sure why the forecast says 'lost' but whatever...

Anyway a quick skim through cards:

Haydock 3.10 - Drahem 11/4 (Sham Desai tip)

Brighton 3.50 - Edwyn Ralph 3/1 down in class (Stats tip)

Yarmouth 5.30 - Duke of Destiny 2/1 trainer is 54% here and had 4 winners in last 9

Sandown 7.15 - Tajheez 7/2 - on my tracker as form goes up to Pethers Moon via Big Thunder

Sandown 7.50 - Regal Hawk 6/4 NAP. Ryan up. Trainer good form. Huge 3yr allowance. Beat older horse in last handicap and that form is strong enough at this level

Sandown 8.25 - Ishikawa 13/8. Solid over C&D and had a pants draw last time and only up 1lb.

Total Staked £750.00, Total Returned £1,433.34

£200.00 Regal Hawk 13/8 - WIN £525.00

£50.00 Regal Hawk 6/4 - WIN £125.00

£100.00 Regal Hawk (2 place insurebet) 5/6 - WIN £183.34

£200.00 Regal Hawk 6/4 - WIN £500.00

£40.00 Regal Hawk 6/4 - WIN £100.00

£10.00 Drahem 11/4 - PLACED £0.00

£10.00 Ishikawa 13/8 - PLACED £0.00

£10.00 Tajheez 7/2 - PLACED £0.00

£10.00 Duke of Destiny 2/1 - LOSE £0.00

£10.00 Edwyn Ralph 3/1 - PLACED £0.00

£110.00 Accs N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 07/08/2013

Sham 'Trixie Loving' Desai (Desai Jnr) is on fire. Racking up the wins. I think he's made a sweet one grand in about 10 days off following trainers in form. As I have no time to look through the cards, I'm following his tips and whacked in a few others:

Sham Desai Tips:

Sirvino 3.30 Pontefract

Venutius 4.30 Pontefract

Floating Along 4.20 Brighton

Don’t Stare 8.00 Kempton

I've added a few others:

Decana 6.30 Kempton

Takeitfromalady 6.00 Kempton

Altantic Affair 2.10 Newcastle

Sleepy Blue Ocean 7.20 Yarmouth

Total Staked £172.78, Total Returned £678.46

£5.00 Sleepy Blue Ocean 2/1 - PLACED £0.00

£5.00 Floating Along 9/4 - WIN £18.75

£5.00 Venutius 14/1 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 Altantic Affair 11/2 - PLACED £0.00

£5.00 Sirvino 13/2 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 Takeitfromalady 11/2 - LOSE £0.00

£5.00 Decana 9/2 - PLACED £0.00

£5.00 Don't Stare 85/40 - WIN £15.63

£18.58 Don't Stare (2 place insurebet) 5/4 - WIN £41.81

£32.50 e/w Accs N/A - PLACED £34.82

£20.00 Tevez 5/1 - WIN £120.00

£9.20 Tevez 9/2 - WIN £50.60

£5.00 e/w Cool Hand Jake 14/1 - PLACED £22.50

£5.00 e/w Tevez/Cool Hand Jake r f/c N/A - WIN £374.35 Bets 06/08/2013 £189.75 Venus De Milo 1/3 - WIN £253.00

Bets 05/08/2013

Just got home, one cheeky bet for the sake of it

Windsor 7.00 - School Fees 10/3 e/w as not really looked at card. But this horse came from first to last and jolted at every undulation. Clearly not suited by track. Windor is flat so hopefully no problem today

Total Staked £80.00, Total Returned £0.00

£30.00 e/w School Fees 10/3 - LOSE £0.00 £10.00 e/w Misplaced Fortune 8/1 - LOSE £0.00

Bets 04/08/2013

Deauville 2.08 - Moonlight Cloud 2/1

Chester 3.05 - Low draw, 2nd top rate, c&d winner - Ballista 7/4

Newbury 3.50 - Songbird 11/8

Total Staked £270.43, Total Returned £513.58

£20.00 Songbird 6/5 - PLACED £0.00

£20.00 Ballista 13/8 - PLACED £0.00

£150.00 Moonlight Cloud 6/4 - WIN £375.00

£55.43 Moonlight Cloud 6/4 - WIN £138.58

£25.00 Treble N/A - LOSE £0.00

Bets 03/08/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 5

Argh. So close to another decent pot yesterday. Cape Peron, Goodwood Mirage, Winning Express – If just one would have won and not come second! aRgh!

Tom Pricewise Segal is having a pants week at Goodwood, but today he goes for:

Goodwood 2.05 – Links Drive Lady 14/1

Goodwood 2.40 – Royal Skies 8/1

Goodwood 3.50 – Humidor 28/1, Ninjago 14/1

Little time today, so short and sweet:

Goodwood 2.05 – Roulette – Tax Free 20/1, Babby Strange 25/1, El Viento 16/1

Goodwood 2.40 – Pether’s Moon 6/1

Goodwood 3.15 - Hughes really fancies Sky Lantern 2/1 and I’m going to listen to him. Form is solid and 3yr allowance crucial.

Goodwood 3.50 – Roulette 2: Hoof It 16/1 looks big, Prodigality 25/1, Heaven’s Guest 12/1

Newmarket 4.05 – Soverign Debt 4/7    

Doncaster 4.10 – Art Scholar 22/1, Silvery Moon 11/1

Thirsk 4.15 – Copperwood 20/1

Goodwood 4.25 – SP Fav

Newmarket 4.40 – Reve De Nuit 6/1

Goodwood 5.00 – Art Offical 6/1, Our Queenie 10/1

Bets 02/08/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 4

Bad day yesterday, no time to research today.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped up a few more today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Sheikhzayedroad 12/1

Goodwood 3.05 – Dance and Dance 8/1, Windhoek 12/1

Goodwood 3.40 – Smoothtalkingrascal 10/1

I am not feeling great today, but off to Goodwood today so better man up:

Goodwood 1.55 – Masterstroke 5/2. Hopefully fit. Top OR.

Gowwod 2.30 – Glory Awaits probably the value, but I heart Montridge 13/8. We all love Hannon/Hughes

Goodwood 3.05 – Low draw. That’s what stats say. That’s what killed me couple days ago. But, Johnston has one low; Windhoek. If it’s not good to firm which likely to be, I’m all over Cape Peron AP @ 12/1. Segal’s 2 picks are decent today.

Goodwood 3.40 – Definightly 25/1 might be worth an outside shot as has a great record here. You can’t not back Kingsgate Native 12/1 or Tickled Pink 6/1

Goodwood 4.15 – Who cares? Tanseeb 11/1

Goodwood 4.50 – Winning Express 9/4

Goodwood 5.25 – Goodwood Mirage 4/1

Ha – I think I am drunk but I think Glory Awaits today. Could Definighlty pull off a Masterstroke at Goodwood (Mirage) with a Winning (Express) Streak

Bets 01/08/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 3

Hindsight is an annoyingly rewarding moment in life if you take heed. Mr Simon Fats was uber adamant we could retire yesterday. Clearly an exaggeration but let’s review the 3 things that ended that dream:

1. THE DRAW. Last year I made little or no reference to the draw. Yesterday I did; I made a big deal of it. Where did it cost me?
1. Race 1 – “Lieutneant Millar and Borxborne def have the best chances at the weights in this but I don’t like their draw” – They came first and second. Though am still a bit peeved off there was no stalls start! Seaside Sizzler still placed respectively so happy with that.
2. Race 6 – “Ribbons has to be respected, but think draw and weight hopefully against her” – Ribbons won and more annoying this was my placepot breaker
3. Race 7 – “Hughes is going to pull off some magic with Magic City from this draw” – Magic City won cosily. Thankfully I backed it, but I still doubted it. I read what Hughes was going to do in this race and he negated the draw
2. HUGHES. Hughes has been extremely bullish about 3 horses this year. Sky Lantern, Baltic Knight and Toranado (“My banker for Goodwood”) – I didn’t listen to him on any occasion and this time cost me Race 3. Muppet. Who knows them better?! If you knew nothing about horses and you watched their last battle you’d pick Toranado every time
3. IRISH DERBY – Race 2 – “I was going to be all over Cap O’Rushes” - the boys were all over it. I didn’t’ like the Irish Derby form but it has been franked. I still think Excess Knowledge was a little unlucky but sure backers of COR won’t agree.

Put them all together with my winner of Race 4 and placed 16/1 in Race 5 and I think Fats you were right….If you ignore the race full of unexposed horses (though that wasn’t overly hard as the winners had all the right credentials) then the above was about 19,0001/1. Ha. As I said, hindsight. Marmite.

Right back to today and Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has tipped up 3 today. He seems to be doing pretty well at Galway; not so much so at Goodwood though:

Goodwood 3.15 – Altano 8/1

Galway 4.55 – Flaxen Flare 16/1, Thomas Edison 12/1

It’s definitely not a ‘retirement day’ today. Looks tricky

Goodwood 2.15 – This is hard. I thought using Circus turn I might be able to split Tha’ir and Mundahesh, but I have them deadheated on BHA ratings, so sod that. Code of Honour and Mushaakis go head to head again of same weight so surely COH beats him again. The key thing for me here is Mushy was on the bridle for a lot longer the COH and COH might just tire himself going up that hill whereas Mushy might not need to hit go until coming down it and also it’s Johnston. Oh feck. I don’t know. I was a bit annoyed I didn’t back Harris Tweed a couple of days ago. A horse running well in Pattern races dropped into a lower grade handicap. I did it with Sirius Prospect only days before and it was fruitful. So perhaps King George River 16/1 might be the one to be on? Bailey is in poor form so can’t jump up and down about it but thumped Glory Awaits and close enough to Intello to suggest well handicapped. I could back most of these to be honest so perhaps let’s not.

Goodwood 2.45 – I’m all over Thunder Strike 10/1 in this. Without Goodwood form to go on, Epsom is next best and he bolted up there. You have the Goodwood King onboard and 10/1 has to be too big

Goodwood 3.15 – Only Sham Desai can tell you how gutted I was when Athos was given a pants ride at Ascot. He is not a G1 horse and has to be debate about G2. However I have to have my emotional bet with Mount Athos 4/1 (Paddy Power will refund if comes second). He is top rated so I’m not giving up on this. Colour Vision 15/2, 2^nd in this last year doesn’t have the penalty that stopped him winning this last year, but Caucas 13/2 has the best form in book against Estimate. Feck. Who to pick?

Goodwood 3.45 – Wild Coco 11/10 is immense. I admit I’m nervous about Elik getting nearly a stone allowance in this, but at 3yr it’s a tough ask. Estimate had the same allowance and was rated the same as Elik last year and could only finish 3^rd.

Goodwood 4.20 – Ridiculous price cuts for Inchila 12/1. Was 25/1 this morning. Possibly a bookie trap but sod it.

Goodwood 4.50 – I could back 7 or 8 in this, and so no real confidence, but Yourartisonfire 12/1 won convincingly enough last time out. Homage and Pythagorean are arguably worthy faves, but I can’t back em. Maybe in a couple of accs.             

Galway 4.55 – Moon Dice 75/1 on Betfair is a bit mental considering won this race easily 2 years ago and with claimer only 6lb higher.

Goodwood 5.25 – Again a number could back here. I like Lord Ofthe Shadows 10/1 based on the race at Epsom a while back. Similar course, ground easier than previous races so hopefully run a good race. Xinbama 12/1 landed me spoils last time out an think has more to offer