Bets 30/01/2014

The bookies have certainly got the favourites right today. I picked my horses before the prices were out and all led to the favs!

2.40 Meydan – I don’t usually seem to bag these 5f tur  f sprints but will give it a go. Racy is too high in weights. Hitchens in poor form and too high in weights. My Propellor ran too badly in last race to consider as did Seachanach. Roicead has been walloped up the handicap and looks better at 6f than 5f and much more competitive than last easy win. Ahtoug might be able to win again but if you use Steps as a marker this race has to go to Medicean Man 10/1 and on paper puts him ahead of Desert Law and Take Ten too. Dungannon is interesting but this is a step up in class, not claimer and has to defy another raise. Masamah ran well for me last time but not sure the rise will help and MM again beats him on paper using Steps. Fityaan was disappointing last time and not sure can back again. There are two others I can’t shift off the shortlist. Beat Baby and Merhee. No idea how good BB is. Easily winning last two races but I think until I’ve seen him race can’t be confident. And Merhee 7/2 has to be backed. Decent debut and we know most De Kock horses step up again after first run.

3.15 Meydan – Argh – this is a tough one. Have 5 on shortlist. Rebel Song might find this too tough in this company, but stuck with Ottoman Empire, String Theory, Intrigo and Start Right. Start Right never starts right and although travels well doesn’t seem to find any gears so sack him off. We have to trust that Intrigo is going to stay the distance and clearly has a chance if he does. String Theory 4/1 could be special and has to be the main bet and Ottoman Empire is a solid place claim might do better from a decent stall.

3.50 Meydan – Flotilla is clear by 10lb on weight and rating on Shuruq, but Certify surely would have gone on to be a higher rated horse? Hmm it might be that she needs this race, so I am not going to punt on this one.

4.25 Meydan – Tamarkuz 3/1 looks another decent horse in the making. Also possibility Mufarrh 15/2 bounces back to form

Kempton 4.50 – Greensward 8/1. Not sure Just One Kiss is that well handicapped based on previous handicap form.

5.00 Meydan – A number of these have great chances, but I’ve always been a fan of Mushreq 4/1

5.35 Meydan – Too many with maybe chances. Maybe Aussie Reigns if the draw was not so bad. Think the favourite Haafaguinea 7/2 might be the one

Bets 29/01/2014

Always the last bloody leg! Guess should be happy with 4/5 though.

Kempton 5.20 - Poitin 9/4 is finally going to prove to everyone is he miles ahead of the handicapper, although problem is Steelriver potentially is too on AW so can't lump. Evs to be placed on Betfair might tempt me to lump a bit though. Hmm

Could back loads of these horses, but just one more:

Kempton 8.20 - Examiner or Jalingo will probably improve and win but I reckon Truancy 10/1 might be better than last race. Just looked too keen all the way around and ran quickly in snatches. If settles better might reverse form. Decent claimer will help.

Right all eyes on Meydan tommorow!

Bets 28/01/2014

Looks like a decent day to back short priced nags and bank some accumulators. 40/1 for the lot J

Taunton 2.10 – Milo Man 8/11 ought to win this. Will take a decent novice to beat him

Southwell 2.20 – Stand Guard 11/10 to beat La Estrella.

Southwell 2.50 – Tellovoi 10/11 ought to win this on this mark and is in good heart.

Southwell 3.20 – Tacthmaster 4/6 was immense on AW so hoping can return to that form as a dozen pounds in hand on OR

Southwell 4.20 – Stun Gun 7/4 is at least 6 lbs ahead of handicapper.

Worth betting Johnston will let me down! Ha

Bets 25/01/2014

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped up a handful today:

2.25 Chelts – Restless Harry 16/1

2.50 Leapordstown – Talbot Road 8/1

3.15 Doncaster – The Druids Nephew 10/1, Unioniste 11/2

3.25 Leapordstown – Sullane Chief 22/1

Hopefully land a couple at decent prices today: Fingers crossed.

Chelts 1.15 – Ohio Gold 7/1 ran a cracker in a much classier handicap in festival. 2lb lower. Go gold go! 25/1 on Tempest River wouldn’t be worst shout as a decent hurdler at Chelts. Thinking about Dark Lvoer as loves Chelts but ran only 10days ago, so might be tough and does look dodgy jumping.

Donny 12.25 – I can see why Centasia looks well treated down to form of Blue Buttons, but Mcllhatton’s 8/1 form at Doncaster last year makes this one looks miles ahead. Back to this course am hoping for a big run as looked to be travelling really well in last race on come back. Elmore Back 5/1 might be better handicapped than I think too.

Lingfield 12.50 – Loads of C&D winners, but only one winner for me; Sister Guru 7/1. Likes to come from last to first so needs all the breaks, but if gets them then has to go very very close. Poor start last time and was romping home before no space ended that chance in a higher class.

Donny 12.55 – Arnaud 16/1 looks a big price considering how easily he brushed aside Rebel Fitz rated 152. Clearly Rock on Ruby is the one to beat on hurdles from though.

Lingfield 1.25 – Random Success Evs is hopefully progressive and must be well handicapped if is

Chelts 1.50 – I remember backing Our Mick 9/1 in this last year and feeling gutted as he got bumped and unseated. Looked like he was going to go very close. 5lb lower must have a chance. Double Ross. Jesus. Can’t believe he has hit back to back wins here. I reckon though with a 6lb reversal Cedre Blue 7/1 has to be better value.

Donny 2.40 – Urban Hymn 10/3 looks like he could be one that sprints the whole way round and stay and stay

Chelts 2.25 – Giant Bolster 7/1 has proven how good he is at Chelts during the festival. Every horse has to give him weight which puts him bang in contention

Donny 3.15 – Uniotiste 9/2 on paper will eat these lot if runs to his mark. Time for Rupert 14/1 is on a crazy low mark and Niceonefrankie 22/1 is also still leaps ahead of the handicapper, but on the basis Segal has taken a shine to Unioniste then lets double up.

Lepoardstown 3.25 - Quick Jack 3/1 has to be back as the Lyvius/Deep Trouble form has made me good money to date

Chelts 4.10 – If Totalise 6/1 returns back to form he produced in Fred Winter he outght to hack up. Big if though as was poor last time. Lac Fontana 7/1 has always been close to my punting and Nicholls reckons is fairly handicapped so why not.

Lingfield 4.20 – Hopefully Understory 12/1 is underated with the 3lb claim.

Rocky, Mio and Red Sherlock are all wait and see for me, but might have the treble.

Some form of Nicholls acc has to be tapped up today too.

Bets 24/01/2014

Lingfield 3.05 – Hawkeyethenoo 7/2 looked like he was going to get up last time out but just failed. Only up 1lb and the extra furlong will suit. Big chance.

Wolves 7.00 – Hunting Ground 8/1 on Betvictor 4.30pm yesterday. The only other time he has run on AW suggests he is a wad ahead of the handicapper if he stays. Not sure I’d be so sure at 2/1 though.

Week 3 Dubai Carnival Review

Jesus. Forget UK racing. Meydan has always been a good hunting ground and yesterday could have been one of those days I cleaned up. The picks were brilliant but the staking was terrible.

Race 1 - Jamesie was not overly difficult to pick. Was still happy with my choice of Masamah. Finished a decent 3rd. The other pick was useless and I should know better then to pick random horses with little form.

£20 Masamah 8/1 - Placed £3rd, returned £0
£20 Alraihan 7/1 - returned £0

Race 2 - Boom. Certerach won. I went through every horse in that race and it paid off! Excellent Result did okayand will come on with experience. The most horrible thing about this is that I wrote "On paper Certerach 12/1 just beats Topclas". Guess bloody what. Exactly that happened, and the forecast was 160/1!!!!!! Argh

£20 Excellent Result 9/2 - Placed 4th - returned £0
£20 Certerach 12/1 - Win, Returned £260

Race 3 - I really thought I was going to land a 25/1 winner in this. Was a decent enough 3rd place. I wouldn't have picked the winner out and reckon he'll probably win again soon. Free Wheeling was on my short list but again happy with my original pick. 

£10 e/w Derbass 16/1 & £20 Bertiwhittle 9/1 - Returned £0
£10 e/w Capital Attraction 25/1 - Placed 3rd - Returned £72.50

Race 4 - This totally pi$$ed me off. The jockey went way to bloody soon. He won't be a big price next time and this cost me £3,700 as it broke my each way acc! SOB! He should have won, but all I needed was a place.

£10 e/w Plantegenant 14/1 - Placed 4th - Returned £0

Race 5 - This was really unlucky. Mshawish would have won this had he not been trapped in for so long. Very annoying. Even more annoyingly I had the winner on my shortlist.

£20 Mshawish 8/1 - Placed 2nd - Returned £0

Race 6 - I got 1st and 2nd in this but again no forecast! Argh.

£20 Gabrial 11/2 - Win, Returned £130
£20 El Estundoso 8/1 - Placed 2nd - Returned £0

So the singles stacked up as:
£220 staked and £460 returned. So happish.

BUT, for those of you who've seen my mental reverse forecasting and crazy accs you'll be disgusted to know that:
1) I didn't do any £5 reverse forecasts. 160/1 in race 2 and 30/1 in race 6, so nearly £1,000 lost
2) I only bet 25p lines instead of usual £2.50 lines. I hit 5 out of 6 so reckon lost out on another £3,500

Had that German jockey not gone too soon on Plantegent and finished 3rd and not 4th the £2.50 ew acc would have paid £3,700. 

Clearly this is all I could have jockey should have and it didn't happen....

Anyway the good news is I'm picking big priced horses in 14 - 16 runner races that are winning /getting very close to winning. Bring on next Thursday.....

Bets 23/01/2014

I swear Meydan was not this hard last year. It was much easier to pick one of two with really decent chances, but feck me, so many have chances today all at decent prices. I’ve really tried to limit the number I’ve backed today, and I will no doubt regret it once some of the shortlisted pop up, but pah. I’ve managed to keep to 11 horses over 6 races.

2.30 Meydan –Alraihran 7/1 is Barzy’s pick and in a difficult first race might be worth trusting his course supremecy, Instransigent was interesting as decent on AW but wide draw and high mark enough to leave. Masamah 8/1 is one I’ve always liked and the only risk is he does not take to tapeta (which is always a big risk)

3.05 Meydan –Jedi comes back from a long lay off, but maybe one to watch next time. Restraint of Trade is Barzy’s choice so has to be of interest, but again young and looked better on soft. Jutland doesn’t look up to scratch. The Corishcockney, back after a year surely cant’ win this with different trip and surface and big step up in class. Genius Beast won me a solid prize 3 years ago, but again back after a break, but if fit is well handicapped. Bank of Burden and Submariner look too high in weights. Handsome Man needs to prove he is upto this class. Tanfeeth has had enough chances to prove himself so not keen. Dormello has had his chances but tends to start poorly. If fixes that will go close. Right left with Excellent Result, Inthar, Topclas and Certerach. On paper Certerach 12/1 just beats Topclas, but Topclas trainer in Topclass form so is tough, but Certerach is proven on this course multiple times at the level and has to have a decent e/w chance. It’s a big step up in class for Inthar but he come here in incredible form and is very tempting but the only other bet I might have is Excellent Result 9/2. The draw might make it slightly harder, but those Ascot handicaps are strong from and I remember SBS having a decent record in staying races here.

3.40 Meydan – Capital Attraction 25/1 ran poorly last time for me, but it may be that he needed the run. If he produces similar form to last year he can take this at a big price back in handicap company. I like Free Wheeling but think mile is too far. Disa Leader has dropped to a nearly tempting mark and won’t be surprised if goes close. Barbeque Eddie was phenomenal last year and made me decent cash. He’s down 7lb in lower company so he might be chucked in. However I just reckon he has just had it now. He is an old boy. Derbass 16/1 and Bertiewhittle 9/1 who both ran decent races last time out. Derbass interestingly wasn’t given an overly hard time once beat so from a better draw is juicy.

4.15 Meydan – Banoffee is one of my let down horses. She does have decent form on AW but not sure is well handicapped. Plantagent 14/1 has a love affair with Meydan as it somewhat average everywhere else. On this mark he might make his price look silly. Zip Top may well be the one to beat but until proven on Tapeta can’t play a part. Manalapan looks too high in weights I reckon. Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby in 2012 comfortably so is the class in this race and very well handicapped but has to bounce back before I back him. Layali seems to fall short at this level but on his last run puts him in with a chance.

4.50 Meydan – Very few of these have run in handicaps so it’s tough to assess. This is a decent class race and a step up for some of the seasoned handicappers. I would love to say back Anaerobio again and Fulbright but Mshawish 8/1 finished close enough to Dawn Approach, Intello and Torando for me to think is on a workable mark.  It’s a big step up in grade for the other two, but can’t fully write off.

5.25 Meydan – Gabrial 11/2 can go one better than last time . No idea how good Sanshaawees but could romp on paper. El Estuendoso 8/1 might step up after first run back too.

Back in the UK;

1.50 Warwick – Franklin Roosevelt 4/1 back down in class, down the weights can take this.

2.15 Gowran Park – Zaidpour 4/7 should not be beaten

3.15 Gowran Park – Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for Groody Hill 16/1. Decent choice. Might need to Lookoutnow 10/1 for a Rich Revival 16/1 though.

6.30 Kempton – Poitin 4/1 was one I called out a few weeks ago at a massive price and was unlucky not to do better than 4^th at 16/1. Runs of the same mark and if stays the extra 2f will have a very good chance.

Bets 18/01/2014

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for three today:

2.25 Ascot - Irish Saint 12/1

3.00 Ascot - Big Fella Thanks 14/1

3.15 Haydock – Katenko 5/1

Ascot & Haydock look like a lot of fun today, but I really have had such a bad time of things with the jumps that I’m taking it very easy (ish)

Ascot 1.15 – Bobcatbilly 3/1

Haydock 2.05 – Stand To Reason 4/1

Haydock 2.40 – Ptit Zig 11/10

Haydock 3.15 – A number of these good be well handicapped, either improving or as have slipped down to winning mark. I couldn’t believe my luck when Night Alliance was 14/1 last time and I can’t believe he is 8/1 and still very well handicapped. He was heavily eased down when he destroyed Loch Ba by 11 lengths. Loch Ba then went on to finish 14 lengths behind Shotgun Paddy

Ascot 3.35 – Every time I back a top rated jumper this season I fail. So inevitably when I go against one it will back fire, but I do think Hidden Cyclone 4/1 could be and maybe should be rated much higher.

Meydan today is not easy. Lots of maidens, lots of big fields, so difficult to nail colours and are a few in each race. Hmm. Will depend on the prices when they come out….

Meydan 2.50 – Sooth Al SSalam ran a decent race last time over C&D and ran 24m more than winner so could go one better this time. Dress Down might step up to the mark as definitely needs further. But Covert Desire looks the class in this. Hmmm they are 1,2,3 in the market so not helpful. Err

Meydan 3.25 – Mutual Force 10/1 has a good chance back down in trip, as have Count Paris 10/1 and Canary Wharf 20/1 both with good course marks. All double figures so of interest.

Meydan 4.00 – Red Duke 8/1 has plummeted down the weights and must go well on ideal distance and going, Warsaw 40/1 hopefully sneaks in under the radar as on this mark on this ground looks very well handicapped and Vocational 25/1 for a similar reason

Meydan 4.35 – Desert Wings 7/4 better ROMP this

Meydan 5.10 – Famous Poet 4/1 is an improving handicapper with a decent chance, but Canwinn 9/1, Antinori 12/1 and Entifaadha 16/1 are all on my shortlist. Bloody hell.

Meydan 5.45 – Paschendale 10/1 can bolt in again as the e/s has done the trick, but the difficulty is that Blue Tiger’s Eye 10/1 could bounce back and Somalian 6/1 and Almoonqith 4/1 could all be well handicapped.

Recapping, Meydan is VERY HARD today but important to keep an eye on the form for future weeks. Also the market has got a number of these spot on I reckon so less value than a typical Thursday!

Bets 16/01/2014

Meydan could not have come at a better time. Missed you. There are some awesome horses running today.

Meydan 2.30 – Appleby had a decent debut last week and Cat O’Mountain 9/4 looks well handicapped enough to win this. If for some reason does not take to Tapeta, Ralston Road 12/1 will be waiting to take advantage after a solid run last time but I can’t work out if well handicapped or not.

Meydan 3.05 and 3.40 – De Kock has dominated both these races. He claims he string both need further and not fully ready. Do we believe that? Not sure. Either way we don’t know which of these will handle Tapeta for fact so a risky proposition. Might fancy a De Kock Double but other than that the only one who I might consider is Figure of Speech 8/1 for the Appelby Team again in the 3.40. Didn’t handle York or heavy ground so his price looks bigger than it should be but ran a blinding race at Kempton which also showed step up in trip will help. Also officially top rated.

Meydan 4.15 – Not and easy race to call at all. Sk’Road and Code of Honor bring decent handicap form here and Star Empire is a solid course performer but looks too short for him. I’ll stick my neck out and back the druggy, Energizer 7/1. The handicapper has thrown him down 7lb. Forget the York race, plenty don’t handle it. Clearly the question is going to be fitness, but we are talking about SBS here and on this mark if fit ought to win.

Meydan 4.50 – Fecking hell. There is about two lengths covering Reyaldo, Kypton Factor, Balmont Mist, Kavanagh, United Colour and even Hitchens (2 years ago). So what do you do. Well the likely improver of all of those has to be United Colour 9/2 firstly due to fitness and secondly age. But, actually the one I really fancy is Rafeej 8/1. He walked passed Tamaathul who should have beaten all of the above but had to travel the longest distance. Trainer M Al Muhari has been smashing them in so I’m surprised not shorter just on that info alone!

Meydan 5.25 – Alnashmy 20/1 romped home here last time out but looks tougher and got whacked up the handicap, but still never know! Start Right 12/1 has to be backed. My need run but has a good draw and gets very close to winning races like this. Might be his turn today. If not, and if can overcome a widish draw Conterglow 8/1 is clearly well handicapped.

I can’t but a winner in the UK at the moment but here goes anyway..

Market Rasen 1.30 – Fergal Mael Duin 9/4 form is very strong for this level. Trainer is in good nick too.

Thurles 2.15 – If Une Artiste 6/4 doesn’t win this then I’m going to give jumps racing a slowing down on betting front.

Ludlow 3.10 – Looking at previous form, Tour D’Argent 6/1 has no excuses today. Looked best on soft ground, looks best going right handed, and two of his best performances have been at Kempton which is somewhat comparable to Ludlow. McCain also still in good nick.

Wolves 7.30 – Prohibition 4/1 ran a really encouraging race yesterday and was not given a hard time, more like a warm up after a long absence. I’m not sure how well horses run the day after, but I’m keen to experiment and learn. At his best he is well in and Butler is blazing them in. 

Bets 14/01/2014

Don't want to talk about yesterday. I'm probably going to only bet half bets with insurebets....

12.55 Exeter – Ray Diamond 11/4 – form follows through to Saphir DR.

1.25 Exeter – Strollawaynow 7/4 has decent form next to his name, but clearly Steel City might well be far better than the 6lb he has to give Strollawaynow.

2.00 Exeter – Sky Watch 9/4 just on form

3.40 Exeter – Triggerman 5/1 maybe would have won his last race over C&D. We all saw how effective Cheesemans 10lb claim is so must have a chance.

4.10 Exeter – I really need a Cash Injection 14/1

Bets 13/01/2014

Deep Trouble jarred me at the weekend. Clearly didn't want his mark to go up too much but in the process did not go early enough and screwed up a big treble with Saphir DR and Allied Answer. That double came in so only lost £15, but very annoying.

1.30 Plumpton - Head Spin 3/1 is a blot. Smash it. Well, judge for yourself first before you listen to me.

2.00 Plumpton - Glenwood Prince 15/8 is a worthy favourite. Strong course form and that last race had 3 well handicapped horses

2.40 Wolves - Yojojo 11/2 a much improved horse who beat Galician by 3.5 lenghts in a C2 handicap couple races back. Attempted a difficult Listed race in France last time out, but has a chance today to continue progression.

3.00 Plumpton - If Glenwood Prince wins the 2.00 Itoldyou 25/1 will look a big price

3.30 Plumpton - Night of Passion 5/2 ought to be winning again of this mark. There's a jockey V Williams horse in this race so who knows, but without those two in the running Curtain Raiser 22/1 ew (w/o NoP and RB) might be worth a punt. The races he has finished has him about 5lb higher in my book and Gordon has had his last two runners win at 25/1 and 6/1.

Lucky V Williams 15 - Blindly backing Uhlan Bute, Toubeera, Saroque and Rocky Bender all at Plumpton.

Bets 11/01/2014

A decent day of jumping today. Sadly not been doing too well in this sphere, but there are a number of trainers in good form and a number of horses who hacked up last time out who still look well handicapped. Tom Pricewise Segal from the RacingPost has gone for 4 today:

2.10 Kempton - Pepite Rose 10/1

2.40 Kempton - Saphir Du Rheu 6/1

3.35 Warwick - Noble Legend 14/1, Royale Knight 16/1

I feel a good day for Hendo on the cards.

Kempton 12.25 – Toby Lerone 4/1 hopefully has not has confidence dented by last fall as I think has more improvement in him after a nice little break. Shangani has been heavily backed but has too many jumping issues for my liking

Wetherby 1.45 – Allied Answer 7/2 has to be ahead of the handicapper. If Wordy’s Boy is somehow 100 % fit after 2 years off he would potentially walk this but can’t back it

Warwick 1.55 – A lot to like about Dolatulo 4/1. Looks ahead of handicapper in both disciplines. Sew On Target ran well for me last time and also must get close, but just prefer Dola.

Warwick 2.25 – Aiden Coleman and the market reckons Tidal Dance 4/1 is going to hack up. Couple of longshots; Grand Vision 12/1 who returned from a long lay off last time has surprisingly not dropped in the handicap but if 80% back to best has a great chance. Cyrien Star 12/1 ran too soon last time still has more in him

Kempton 2.40 – A number of these have been slapped up a lot of pounds by the handicapper and it’s hard to see some of them overcoming that burden. I’ve not seen a horse blitz a field in the last 2furlongs like Saphir Du Rhen 6/1 did. It’s good form and Derham removes 5lb of the huge 15lb hike he easily deserves. Can he overcome that? I don’t know. I don’t think Home Run can reverse the form though, so will cross that off. Juntion Fourteen went up 16lb for a very easy win and is tempting. Kaylif Aramis is on the only one who drops in class and must go close too .But the two I really like are River Miague 7/1 and Spirit of Shankly 10/1. The former needed that first run, ran a blinder at Kempton over a year ago and I think is well handicapped at this Listed level. The latter has a blinding stable form, form at Kempton and the last race has two form winners which he walked and so looks well handicapped.

Wetherby 2.50 – Shimla Dawn 3/1 again must be ahead of the handicapper, with McMurrough 7/1 the form pick after first run back behind More of That

Kempton 3.15 – If anyone is going to get extra distance out of a horse it’s McCoy. He teams up again with Nadiya De La Vega 11/2 who he has won on a few times. The last race was never going to suit and must have a decent chance if sees the trip out

Warwick 3.35 – Was about 8 I liked in this so will just stick with Segal

Kempton 3.50 – If River Maigue wins the 2.40, bookies will be in Deep Trouble 4/1. It will be backed in as will hold the form. He would have won by a lot more had he not lost total control at the last but 8 pound rise might be a tad harsh. Has to be one of the bigger bets of day though, but again I think the market is right because Lyvius 4/1 is in decent form and The Skyfarmer is a solid yardstick. Must have a chance too. Except Right Step 33/1 to outrun price. 10lb claim will be huge as last time over C&D he was not closer because of a blunder when getting tired.

I’ve avoided a couple of the big races as I’ve just struggled to pick a winner so will chicken out a bit and just hit a Twinlight / Upazo 12/1 double as Mullins doesn’t send them over for fun.

Bets 10/01/2014 + Week 1 Dubai Carnival Review

I seem to be prevailing on the flat and it’s the jumps that are bringing me down. A quick review of Meydan as good learnings:

Race 1 – The winner was one of the few that won a decent handicap last time out. 6 months off was always a risk but Appebly started his debut with a bang. RP has the ground down as god to soft. I had no idea this was the case and so the home team with speed horses were always likely to struggle. My pick last year’s winner Fityaan clearly had a reason for not racing since and ground would not have suited. The winner was pickable.

£10 ew Fityaan 25/1 – Lose - £0 back

Race 2 – I backed Busker a number of times last year and he did the job, but didn’t think it was the right distance for him yesterday. In his last race over a few furlongs shorter he was blazing home and this was the only clue to picking this winner. 2^nd place Layali was on the shortlist but I didn’t think was up to winning. Having the 6lb claim was important and has been before. My pick Ottoman Empire did well enough and will keep him onside. El Estru, Specific Gravity and Clon B look like keeping and eye on especially the De Kock runners as tend to improve for first run.

£10 ew Ottoman Empire – 3^rd Place - £20 back

Race 3 – Really pissed off about this one. Fulbright was the obvious winner except one crucial thing. He last 3 races were pants so took him off shortlist. He was running to an accurate 113 on tapeta in G2/3 company last year so was very well handicapped. In hindsight his last 3 runs can be excused for ground, field size and other reasons. Appelby again though. I picked a handful in this and the best was Modern History 20/1 who was unlucky to be pipped but was pipped but a better handicapped horse. Bertiwhittel finished the race well

£10 ew Modern History 20/1 – 2^nd Place £65 back

£10 ew Maraheb 25/1 – 5^th - £0 back

£10 ew Lui Rei 25/1 - £0 back

£10 ew Proud Possibility 20/1 - £0 back

Race 4 – Mushreq won easily like I expected as was class act. Do It All didn’t make all like I expected and won’t be betting like that again. Will keep an eye on both Gabrial and Artigiano

£25 Mushreq 7/2 – Win - £112.50 back

£10 Back to Lay Do It All – Lose

Race 5 – Shuruq was another good winner for me and no excuses for the other two

£20 Shuruq 6/1 – Win - £140 back

£20 Mufarrh 5/1 – Lose - £0 back

£10 ew Capital Attraction 10/1 – Lose £0 back

Race 6 – Another decent winner in Anaerobio for me. He will win again on that performance if not upgraded in class. Fav was disappointing

£20 Anaerobio 8/1 – Win - £180 back

£25 Complicate 7/2 – Lose £0 back

£10 ew Across The Rhine 20/1 – Lose £0 back

So I made about £250 quid on the single but lost around £100 on accs. Still, although I backed far too many horses, after 8/1, 6/1 and 7/2 winners with 12/1 and  20/1 placed horse I’m pretty confident I can nail Meydan again this year. I also think, all the races had pickable winners….

Nothing exciting today, but I have a few really decent ones tomorrow I think!

6.00 Wolves – Kashmir Peak is not yet proven on AW, so I marginally think the best C&D runner on show is Gabrials King 3/1.

Bets 09/01/2014

This time last year I landed a ridiculous £7k double and would love that shizzle again. Meydan is back and last year I hit a 33/1 on the opening day too, so fingers crossed, although conscious that was the only winner I had! Runners will need their first run no doubt...

2.30 Meydan - Areem 5/2

2.35 Catterick – Merlin’s Wish 9/4 looks like he could be well handicapped still. Clearly you can’t ignore a Henessey Gold Cup Winner donw 20lbs since then and ran a decent enough race last time out. 7/2 without Merlins Wish might be tempting

3.05 Meydan – Woah tough but guess you have to side with an easy C&D winner of this race last year - Fityaan (17/1) . This is a 15 runner handicap with only 5pounds separating the field so it may as well be a non handicap. I can’t determine which of these will be the most progressive and many of these and handicap debutants so hard to assess how well in they are without looking at a load of races. My Propellor was the only other horse after a quick search that romped a previous handicap, but that was not at Meydan.

3.40 Meydan – Izaaj might have been well handicapped if was not walloped up 9 lbs but if Richard Mullen gives Ottoman Empire (12/1) a decent ride unlike twice by Harry Bentley last year then he has a decent chance.

4.15 Meydan – I have 5 in this so not sure what to do. Maraheb 25/1 has a habit of missing the break and needed his first run back last year. Has that under belt now and capable of winning this on this mark although he may need further. Proud Possibility 22/1 could be well handicapped but have no way to assess that. My Freedom is in good form and would have gone close to winning here last year but had a bad draw and was badly hampered in straight. Decent draw today so no excuse. Both Modern History and Lui Rei have good course marks next to their name and are both 20/1+. Feck. What to do….

4.50 Meydan – The class act is Mushreq 7/2 by a good way, but it’s well known De Kock’s runners need their first time out run. I can only see one confirmed front runner in Do It All 20/1 and could be a sneaky win. Will hit betfair and put a lay on around 5s.

5.25 Meydan – All eyes on the return of Steeler, but can’t back him after so long off track. Looks a stronger renewal of the race that Barbeque Eddie won last year. I don’t remember it being so hard to nail colours to one horse Can’t pick between Mufarrh, Shuruq and Capital Attraction. All good C&D marks.

6.00 Meydan – Again 4 or 5 I like including the fav Complicate 7/2, Anaerobio 8/1 and Across The Rhine 20/

Bets 08/01/2014

12.10 Donny - Nordic Quest 5/2. Hendo has it form now. 9 winner in last 14. His horses go pretty well at Donny too. Traniner aside Nordic Quest will be suited by step up in trip and the form of last race has been franked.

12.40 Donny - Groomed 12/1 came back from a break in a C4H on heavy ground off 114 and finished a decent 3rd. Had he run off 107 like he is today back from a break on slightly easier ground he would have won. Nesterenko 9/4 is the Henderson favourite and although claimer negates the penalty is a tough ask only a week after. However the horse he beat got pretty close to Captain Cutter and 3rd place was 20 places behind so can't be ruled out. I can't work out if Forced Family Fun is well handicapped or not. Using Akdam as a marker he his and he is 11/2 and been back all morning. Hmmm.....

1.10 Donny - Sir Pitt 5/2 was 5th in the Triumph Hurdle couple years ago. Clearly had problems inbetween but has been absolutely hammered in betting so either its a bookie trap or someone knows he has returned to some decent enough form

1.40 Donny - Karinga Dancer should win on form and ability but is only 8/11

2.00 Lingfield - Karam Albaari 5/1 down in class and only 1lb higher than last C&D win. Good chance as form is good.

2.10 Donny - In races like this with little jumps form I got for those I think were best on flat and have good trainer form. Diamond King 8/15 is clearly that horse so probably just a double with Karinga Dancer in previous as pretty short. Uppingham 8/1 might well be the danger along side Themanfrom Minella based on flat form

2.45 Donny - Danandy 12/1 is ahead of the handicapper based on Stratford 3 races ago. Problem is jumping has ruined chances twice last. 12/1 is a big price if gets jumping together. Honest John is not in good form at the moment but he loves Donny and won a decent enough handicap over C&D here last year. Triangular 10/3 the favourite is perhaps in a place now where having dropped 20lbs and wit the trainer in good form has no more excuses

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3.10pm Update..

Kempton 4.10 – Perfect Cracker 3/1 looks decent enough but Poitin 16/1 looks HUGE price. Ran to a mark of at least 90 is last Listed race but only running off 69?

Kempton 4.40 – If Expose 3/1 takes to Kempton no reason can’t win from opnly 2lb higher

Kempton 6.10 – New Rich 3/1 has a chance to enhance C&D record

Kempton 7.10 – Odin 3/1 for the Hatrick

Bets 07/01/2013

Leicester 1.15 - Definitely want to take Stow on only on basis has had 2 races in the last week and although they were pretty much strolls in the park Belle De Fontenay 4/1 is 9lb better off with Stow even though beat him over C&D in early Dec.

Leicester 1.50 - Edmund Kean 5/2 should be favourite and not Renard. Look at the hurdles form. What's Happening 5/1 w/o EK is worth a pop

Bets 06/01/2014

Looking at the Wolves 3.10, 3.40 and 4.10. Shortlisted Shirazz, Minstrel Lad, Eco Warrior, Fair Breeze, The Yank and Barbs Princess. Hopefully get time finalise before the off....

Bets 05/01/2014

Boom boom boom. 3 decent winners 14/1, 8/1, 10/3 and 6/1 placed yesterday put me about 1k in profit as accumulators finally came off.

Not had chance to look at cards to just followed Segal.

2.00 Naas - Treat Yourself 5/2
2.50 Plumpton - Smoking Aces 5/2

Bets 04/01/2013

No big jumps racings, but Segal has still had a go:

2.35 Lingfield - Kashmir Peak 14/1
3.10 Lingfield - Rivellino 4/1

Would be rude not to have a punt despite the big races being called off..

1.00 Cork - Wicklow Brave doubled with 2.45 Cork - Blood Cotil is just under Evs

1.25 Lingfield - Kyllachy Star 14/1 looks a bit of ew value. Best runs on AW come here at Lingfield. Ignore last two runs as can make excuses. On a winnable mark.

1.40 Newcastle - War On 9/2 good chance at weights

2.00 Lingfield - Joyous 3/1 has been smashed in the market and you can see why. Should have won last time over C&D and will no doubt be improvement in her. Presuming Presumido 5/1 is main danger on his last C&D win as might actually now be more value as the form has been franked. Or the r f/c?

2.35 Lingfield - Segal has gone with Kashmir Peak. Not sure I see it, but not arguing :) I think I prefer Modernstone 6/1 and Uramzin 10/1. The former is an obvious choice after a decent C&D win last time out. The latter ran two very good races here. His November race which was not a tactical race like the December one suggests he is ahead of the handicapper.

3.10 Lingfield - This will be interesting. Easterby and the big punters think Perfect Pastures 10/3 will win. Segal thinks Rivellino will "win easily". PP did win easily last time out and no signs of stopping. Rivellino ran poorly last time at Lingfield so not sure how he can be so confident. This is tough though. You can give chances to Naabegha who is in good form and nearly won a decent C3H here, Picansort who loves it here, but the other one who has to be backed is Capone 25/1. Decent record at Lingfield and absolutely on a winnable mark at this level now back in handicap company.

3.45 Lingfield - Indian Jack 8/1 has very good recent course mark to his name as does Scottish Glen 4/1

Bets 03/01/2014

Musselburgh 1.40 - Pass Muster 10/3 hopefully still has some pounds in hand

Bets 02/01/2014

Woah - Not such a happy NY Day for punting. Ouch.

Ayr 1.20 - Surely between Milborough and Swatow Typhoon. The BHA reckons Milborough will win by 5 lengths on OR. However I think ST 5/4 is rated better than that using the Bangor race. McCain is in better form than Vaughan and McCain and Ayr are good friends.

Ayr 1.50 - Snuker 3/1 looks like he might still have a few pounds to improve and we know he stays and loves a slog.

Huntingdon 3.10 - Bitofapuzzle 2/1

Bets 01/01/2014

Happy freaking New Year. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped two today, but I missed the prices!

Chelts 2.30 – Carrickboy 14/1

Musselb’h 2.10 – New Year’s Eve 13/2

I don’t have much time today…

12.10 Chelts – Racing Pulse 5/2 has been very very impressive to date and can continue progress

12.45 Chelts – The G3 over C&D here is surely the best form and therefore Alvarado 8/1 and Bradley 10/1 have to be the pick

1.20 Chelts – 4 horse race. No bet

1.35 Musselb’h – Old boy Quito Du Tresor 10/1

1.55 Chelts – Return Spring and Whispering Gallery are probably worthy favs. The former not sure about soft and the latter not sure about handicap mark so those proven at top level on workable marks are Burton Port 14/1 and Poungach 14/1. Both ducking and diving out of the two discplines which not ideal but both like chelts and have come to close to winning/winning of these marks over hurdles.

2.10 Musselb’h – Ifandbutwhynot 6/1

2.30 Chelts – Double Ross maybe gone up too much? So Ackerac 12/1 and Silver Roque 14/1

3.05 Chelts – 3 horses. No bet

3.20 Musselb'h - Tantamount 11/4