Bets 27/02/2014

Oh wee. Lost a fair bit yesterday, but had most each way so not as bad as could have been. Meydan to the rescue?

2.40 Meydan - Case for a lot of these. My Freedom has let me down too mant times so will go with Modern History 7/2 who nearly landed me a fat win last time out

3.15 Meydan - Coneyance would walk this on old form, but huge break to overcome. Masamah has done his job for me and too many better than him in this. Medicean Man repaid me last week with an awesome win. Down in grade and 7lb lower. Hmmm. This is tough. Price is too short considering not proven on Tapeta and is a furlong further. Merhee 9/2 can hopefuilly bounce back to form and if theres a surprise its Roi De Vitesse 18/1 who looks on a decent mark bbased on last Graded run

4.25 Meydan - Ihtimal 2/5

5.00 Meydan - Urgh not easy again. Trade Storm ran a stinker like like year. He then romped home twice including this race. Mushreq, well we know how good he is, but then there is also Mshawish who was so unlucky last time. Was crusing but Frankie couldnt get him out in time. Tricast?

5.35 Meydan - Winterlude 15/8

Bets 26/02/2014

Had a look at these last night and got a bit carried away with accs. Taken a different approach with the jumps today, but on the flat, the usual shenanigans. Most of these have been cut across the board since last night. #feelinglucky?

2.50 Wincanton – Mystical Appeal 7/2

3.00 Bangor – Jeanry 3/1

3.30 Bangor – Jaunty Journey 9/1

4.00 Bangor – Incentivise 7/1

5.20 Kempton – Fujin Dancer 14/1 BIG CHANCE. A wad ahead of handicapper poor ride last time was cruising and should have smashed the field

5.50 Kempton – Douneedahand 10/1

6.20 Kempton – Dutiful Son 6/4 and New Leyf Insurbet 2 places or Fc is 12/1 and rfc 16/1

7.50 Kempton – Premier Loco 2/1

8.20 Kempton – Spirit of Gongree 5/1 BIG CHANCE. Hampered last time then flew and has Multitask in that formline!

Bets 25/02/2014

Lingfield 2.00 – Probably Dreamin Again 9/1 but keen to take on the favourite and as a result have to take on Standing Strong on formline. Reckon theres more improvemewntment in Dreaming Again up in trip. FLEW home last time here.

Lingfield 3.30 – Again want to take on the favourite. Hopefully no one will give him an early uncontested lead this time. I want to back Rutterkin 16/1. Jockey booking last time was interesting and is again today. Whats more interesting is last time here if had a better start maybe 1 length and was not hampered would have gone very close to winning.

Lingfield 4.30 – Hard to take on the favourite Kings Request 9/4 this time. Looked at the last time raced against Keep Kicking and difficult to know who would have won as KR was massively hampered. At the weights now though have to side with the fav. I still am oddly tempted by Sanction 16/1 now has had a run back. That maiden at Lingfield is very good form for this level and if has just retained that ability alone is a a good 10lb ahead of mark. Big if though.

Will hit an acc with most of the favs and then an acc w/o favs on the selections

Bets 24/02/2014

Mr Red Clubs 6/4 and Reggie Bond 7/4 @ Wolves

Bets 23/02/2014

Have avoided sundays as much as poss but when you hit 12/1, 6/1, 5/1 a few Evs shots and a 70/1 acc you keep going right?

Clearly I've still not found my form on jumps handicaps but still smashing the flat, but nothing on that discipline today sadly

2.10 Fontwell - Benvolio Evs - Nicholls says if back to best has decent chance and on OR wins

2.40 Fontwell - Kingcora 6/4 clearly has jumping issues but eliminate those and you have a well handicapped horse. Fontwell easier jumps than Exeter and Ascot so lets hope for rhe best

3.10 Fontwell - Saphir Du Rheu 2/5 too short to back

3.45 Fontwell - Nicholls treble? Or Hot Whiskey N Icce 7/2

Bets 22/02/2014

Hand still bodged up so short hand again. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has gone or three today:

2.55 Newcastle – Wyck Hill 14/1, Safron De Cotte 14/1

3.50 Kempton – Tour Des Champs 9/1

A few for me today and trying all sorts to land some winners today!

1.20 Chepstow – Monkey Kingdom 5/2 (Jockey Tip)

1.25 Fairyhouse – All Pepper 10/1 (Midweek Chelts Money)

1.45 Lingfield – Tarooq 6/1 (C&D times)

2.55 Newcastle – Our Island 10/1 (Low mark)

3.15 Kempton – Irving 11/10 (OR)

3.50 Kempton – Grandiso 9/1 (Mark & Nicholls)

5.10 Lingfield – Taajub 5/1 (Big step down in class)

Bets 21/02/2014

Torrid yesterday. I've got excuses for a few of the horses, but some were just dire:

Lingfield 4.30 - Greensward 14/1 an Keenes Point 20/1 both look overpriced on previous C&D form. The latter has to bounce back from dire form but it's Hills, so its possible

Bets 20/02/2014

Just out of surgery so just brief notes;

Meydan 3.15 - Free Wheeling a Tapeta bod, not turf. Impossible to get away from Anaerobio 11/4, with Zahee being the biggest danger. Just not possible to see how good Zahee is on turf but is solid and solid Tapeta handicap. Expecting a De Kock 1,2 maybe even 3 with Kavanagh

Meydan 3.50 - Hard. Too hard as have to decide which formline is the best. Zain Sham, Ali Palace, Eastern Rules, Ottoman Empire. Not sure. Keep an eye on Taylor Said. Was solid, but long lay off so not one to bet on yet. 4 on the shortlist. Tales of Grimm 8/1 down in class and weights and trip and decent jock booking. Hmm looks well handicapped but no proof on Tapeta. Disa Leader 11/1 will win one of these one day, but solid place claims. Dragon Falls 8/1 was unlucky last time trapped in and will hopefully improve. Van Rooney tempting too with decent ground saving jockey onboard. Argh. Will go with Dragon and Disa tentatively.

Meydan 4.25 - Medicean Man 5/1 unlucky for me last time. No reason can't make amends

Meydan 5.00 - Cat O'Mountain 6/4 will have to weave magic from this draw an brush off a 13lb rise but this horse is top class I reckon.

Meydan 5.35 - Certify 4/7 all day long

Meydan 6.10 - The favs look good today. Mujaarib 2/1 looks strong as longs as does not get trapped in. Empoli might go well at a bigger price, and Tasaday might improve too

UK Flat:

Wolves 5.30 - Filament of Gold Evs looked a bit all over the place but once controlled in command and can brush off rise

Wolves 6.30 - Keep on side of Benaandonner 11/4 who is in decent nick and formline decent enough

Wolves 7.30 - Love races like this. So many of them have a chance and so man y have strong course form. If Silverware is allowed to lead easily might be hard to peg back, but I love trying to work out whether handicap debutants are well handicapped and I reckon Fashion Line 7/2 is

Bets 19/02/2014

Kempton 5.55 - McBirney 14/1, Top Dikat 6/1
Kempton 6.25 - Luckster 20/1, The Young Master 5/1
Kempton 6.55 - Boston Blue 12/1, Rocky Rebel 3/1

Bets 18/02/2014

10/1, 20/1, 10/1, 14/1, 10/1 all placed in last couple of betting days so slightly frustrating, but the e/w part of the Accs are dropping so all good.

1.55 Southwell – Does look like a battle between the top two in market Queen of Skies and Silly Billy

4.05 Southwell – Elusive Hawk 15/8 should be winning comfortably at these weights

5.10 Southwell – Cascadia 5/1 looks well worth a bet. Watch last race. Lost about 15 lengths and still did pretty well. If go back to second run with Joey Hayes onboard at Southwell is definitely well handicapped. Just can’t work out what happened to her last time at Southwell

Bets 17/02/2014

2.15 Wolves – Tide Runner 25/1 big break to overcome but on this mark with pieces on could if fit be big, but after Waving won again Fair Breeze might be safer?

2.45 Wolves – The favourite looks good enough to win this but there are a few first time headgearers in this and any of em could pop up esp Josies Dream. Celebrian 20/1 might be worth a pop back here and back down in trip

3.15 Wolves – The Blue Dog vs Doldrums. R F/c 14/1

3.45 Wolves – Coillte Calin 9/4

4.45 Wolves – Silken Express 10/1

Bets 15/02/2014

What a ridic bookie trap that was yesterday! And thank you for it as Waving went out to 5/2. Bosh.

Segal has gone for four today all at shortish prices for him so could be in for a decent day with him:

2.55 Haydock – Our Father 7/1

3.15 Ascot – Two Rockers 8/1, Kaylif Aramis 10/1

3.50 Ascot – Cloudy Too 10/1

Straight to Meydan for me…

3.10 Meydan – Some formlines not familiar with but one that stands out is Genuis Step 9/4. Deserves the 5lb rise but reckon can shrug it off. In his last win Innocuous is a decent scalp at this level and Rafeej even better as he has gone on to decent things here. Hoping he has some improvement left in him and that Glenleven is just not quite good enough to beat him.

3.45 Meydan – Horses like Odooj 10/1 taking a step down in class like this should be walking fields like this. I guess Mooqtar’s mark is hard to assess, but willing to chance it’s not great and Desuetude has to worry you as ran okay last time after a long break and was once rated 21lb higher, but I’m not sure that rating was ever right on this surface

4.20 Meydan – Too many have a chance. Have 8 on my shortlist. Al Razi has no claimer so has to shrug off a huge rise else would have been the pick. Global City would walk this on old form but something has happened to him. Hmm, anyway sod it, next race…

4.55 Meydan – Oasis Dancer 5/1 has been creeping up for not winning but I feel have to give one more chance. Or do I. If there’s a horse that will either win or come last today it’s Now Spun 40/1. Over C&D has no more excuses unless something genuinely wrong with him. Lehaaf might be better in these conditions. Maraheb nearly took my eye, but think better on Tapeta. The biggest chance has to go to Alhebayeb 14/1 though. Massive step down in class and decent form on show.

5.30 Meydan – Seen Filfil form here. Makes me smile. Still can’t believe was a 40/1 winner as was pretty easy to pick out. Conccordat 20/1 has better form on synthetic that turf. Seems is good form and although that’s not Tapeta form could outrun his price. Tied in with that recent form Udbaa 10/1 ought to go close and

Back in the UK a few decent looking favs, I think?

1.30 Ascot – Un Temps Pour Tout 10/11 is a worth fav on all known form and ratings.

2.20 Haydock – Again at the weights Celestial Halo 5/4 ought to win although Nicholls is not overly confident

2.50 Lingfield – Drive On 13/2 can enhance his C&D record

2.55 Haydock – Well Refreshed 12/1 has not had condtions to suit for a while except for last race in which he was travelling pretty well until hi a fence pretty hard. Nuts and Bolts, Hawkes Point and Merry King all on shortlist but best stick with one.

3.15 Ascot – Should stop betting in races like this as I have a bad track record this year, but you know me – Like Minded 8/1 has best form on paper (surely)

3.35 Wincanton – Zarkander 2/1 wins on ratings. His form with Annie and The New One has to be far better than Melodic R. Not sure why MR is fav.

3.50 Ascot – Riverside Theatre reached 170, and no reason why couldn’t bounce back but Captain Chris 11/10 is the worthy fav

4.45 Wincanton – Nicholls says Fascino Rustico 11/8 is the one to beat.

Bets 14/02/2014 & Meydan Update

Lingfield 4.15 - Waving 6/4. He has won handicaps on 70 previously and with the decent claimer is only on 52. He destroyed two pretty weak fields, but no reason why can't again today. Seems to be money for Grand Gold, but whenever I read 'check the market', it always appears that money comes in but they are total flops. Bookie Trap I reckon. Either way, on paper I'd still back Waving. Bert and Hail come back in trip which I don;t think they will appreciate.

Right Meydan review from yesterday:

Race 1 - I got the bets all wrong, but taking the positives, I wrote Shanshaawes could be decent, but until proven on Tapeta I can't back him. It backfired but I won't change my policy on this. Plantagent and Busker were awful and I have no obvious excuses. I think Winterlude is still one to keep onside. I did give mentions to Engerie Davos and Start Right who finished 3rd and 4th. So although lost 3 bets was still sort of okay.

Race 2 - Again my Tapeta decision back fired as Long John romped home. Safety Check was 2nd for a long way but had no chance trying to keep up with Long John.

Race 3 - I did look at the winner but hard to assess if was handicapped well or not. Forjatt would have been a nice each way in hindsight but Gabrial had to jinx in final stretch and that cost him. Coming through a big field will never be easy and as I wrote if you do, then you want someone like Spencer onboard like last time. I think he would have won with a clearer passage.

Race  4 - For the 3rd time my Tapeta policy backfired and the favourite won easily. Good news is I picked the 12/1 second and 20/1 third so can't be too disappointed.

Race 5 - United Colour got merked on the rail. I''m convinced he would have won otherwise.

Race 6 - I nearly landed a 832/1 tricast here. Songcraft 10/1 1st, Meandre 10/1 2nd and Topclas 12/1 a length away in 5th.

So I knew those favourites were decent, I called it, but I have a until proven on Tapeta policy which has generally worked well. I got a bit unlucky with Gabrial and massively unlucky with United Colour and the last race was close to a huge payout. So all in all, although slightly down was not far off the mark at all.

Bets 13/02/2014

Meydan 2.45 – Tough start to the day. I was really really angry with Per-Anders for blowing Plantagent’s chances last time @14/1. Buick on board this time and has a chance again at 12/1. Per has switched to Manchester and if had a better draw would be all over him, but stats show has little chance from here. Shanshaawes could be decent but not yet proven on Tapeta. Tha’ir is one of my favs but not proven on Tapeta and tough draw. Layali Al Andalus has been very unlucky twice now, but has been given very good rides and will need another to get close. Tentatively pass on him. Start Right has been getting closer, but on form lines probably not good enough to win today’s race. Energie Davos is really tempting me, but the form of last race has only really worked out on turf and not tapeta, so currently difficult to assess as Cat’O’M romped that race so distances flattered the rest. Again tentatively leaving him. You can’t not back Busker 12/1 after he ran on the bridle most of the way over last C&D win. BUT surely Winterlude 3/1 is going to be another SBS superstar in the carnival looking at form on AW.

Meydan 3.20 – On ratings it’s tight between the top 4 and 3yr olds. Aussie horses always do well here and on that basis the top rated Long John has to go close to winning. But, no tapeta form and on the 2k trial over 7f you have to back Safety Check 10/1 who was travelling the best and was produced too late. Buick again can win it!

Meydan 3.55 – Hmm. If this was on dirt Forjatt would be a strong bet, but a suggestion not as good on turf. Hope don’t regret this thought. I reckon if Gabrial 6/1 can reproduce effort can get in again. The way he came through traffic last time was Spencer magic and he is a mast of that. I worry it’s Fallon onboard this time. At the weights El Estruendoso shouldn’t be able to turn the tables on Gabrial and again hope don’t regret that!

Meydan 4.30 – Similar to Long John, Variety Club on paper could be very strong, but no tapeta form. Therefore I get to back my big disappointment horse Mars 10/3. I thought he’d be special but has not fulfilled that on Turf. Back to synthetic he could now do that! At bigger prices Haatheq 12/1 looks the biggest danger looking at form with Soft Falling Rain. Think remember this one being aimed at the big one in March so looks tasty at 12/1. Empire Storm 18/1 might not be out of it either.

Meydan 5.05 – United Colour 5/1 has a better draw than last time he readily held of a number of these. He was a nice winner for me last time and fingers crossed can do it again. Tamaathul on paper beat UC last time they raced but UC lost a shoe that race and seeing as he turned the table on others no reason Tamaa should be a threat. Fingers crossed Bello doesn’t turn out to be a superstar!

Meydan 5.45 – Argh – the hardest race of the day me thinks.  Songcraft 10/1 has won over C&D and off a higher mark but do have to have faith has not regressed looking as previous runs. Topclas 12/1 was beaten by Certerach (another of my winners) and I think that form is decent. Meandre 11/1 could be a massive blot here running of 113 with surely optimum conditions lined up today. Zip Top has to prove stamina. Vasily is 4^th on my list, but have to stick with 3 horses else ends up being costly. Not fully convinced he will stay.

Bets 09/02/2014

Segal has gone for one today:

3.50 Leopardstown - Lord Windermere 10/1


In the earlier big handicap race, although I'm having a tough time of things a couple do stand out:

3.15 Leopardstown - Baily Green 5/1 - Comes back down to a very low hurdles mark after being in top form chasing and Reizovic 12/1 who was returning after a long break on a very low and tempting mark looked like was going pretty well until fell 2 out. Have tried watching video of that race but tough too see how well was travelling but was making good headway. Money has been coming for it so worth chancing.

Bets 08/02/2014

I probably should only ever punt at Meydan looking at the bucks it’s making me. 72/1 tricast on Thursday and 40/1 winner last Saturday. Happy days….

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for two today:

Newbury 3.35 – Poet 40/1

Lingfield 3.45 – Iptisam 8/1

Here goes…

Newbury 1.50 – Upswing 3/1 probably would have won last time out and looks to have best form. Worried about Andy Kelly but hopefully McCoy can work his magic. Ryden Pynes on paper with Whisper as a marker ought not to bother him, but knowing my luck…

Newbury 2.25 – If Al Ferof 13/8. Katkenko needs to find 8lb. Tough ask I reckon.

Newbury 3.00 – Dodgin Bullets 11/8 looks pretty decent. At the weights Raya Star nearly got my attention as was only 5 lengths behind DB and now gets a 5lb pull, but DB beat him very easily. Module might also be dangerous running with less weight, but pah lets go for it

Newbury 3.35 – Segal’s pick is interesting based on his win at newbury but no other form to back it up. This is clearly hard. If I had to punt I’d try Cheltenian 9/1 and Smashing 14/1. Both could be pretty well handicapped. I think Segal might have back Cheltenain antepost which means I would have already done so too. Irish Saint is obviously still well handicapped and probably worthy fav. I backed Deep Trouble AP, but not overly convinced anymore

Lingfield 3.45 – Hmm, reckon Perfect Pasture 4/1 will try to get out quickly and based on last performance and just hope Gibbons doesn’t balls it up and stay against the rail as I’ve seen so many do that here and get merked! Might be one for back to lay on betfair for safety.

Bets 06/02/2014

Feel a good day for SBS today coming on.

Meydan 3.15 – 3 on the list, and not sure which way to turn. Alnashmy 8/1 nearly landed me a solid 14/1 couple weeks ago and has to go close again. Tamarkuz let me down last time but definitely has potential. Dragon Falls 8/1 could be on a silly mark on this surface.

Meydan 4.25 – Reckon one of the De Kock chicks will probably win, but I’m always a fan of taking a 3yr old allowance and backing proven horses on Tapeta so has to be Wedding Ring 5/1. All the money seems to be for Ihtimal as is 8lb better rated than Wedding Ring so probably will win but guess can’t back both at the prices.

Meydan 5.05 – Initially when I saw this race I thought I’d be quids in as saw Star Empire in the line up. Then I saw Certerach. Then I saw Excellent Result and after further history Tenenbaum. Hmm.  Certerach won be decent dollar last time and in that race Excellent Result from a wide draw had far far too much to do and did really well to finish 4^th and I think from a better draw can definitely turn the tables if does not get trapped in and stays the extra distance. Tenenbaum might struggle from the draw and so is probably not worth chancing. And then we have Star Empire who is always there or there abouts. Ran a cracker last time. I really don’t know how to pick the winner from these 3 or 4 so maybe be bolshie and hit a tricast!

Meydan 5.40 – Excited to see how Dunaden gets on, but have to wait till run on Tapeta before backing. Looks too far for Zahee. Prince Bishop has a lot to do on form with Hunters Light. Surfer and Prince Alzain surely can’t win from the draw. I think on paper African Story 3/1 beats Hunters Light and the only other danger if takes to Tapeta is Artigiano 12/1

Meydan 6.15 – The favourite looks decent enough, but too short I reckon. Based on last few runs, LeDrakkar could look to have run badly and perhaps he did, but at 66/1 I’m willing to chance that back in handicap company he will go mighty close. He has a pretty bad draw but could be another decent outsider! Similar story for Dux Scholar 12/1

Bets 01/02/2014

Rebellious Guest 11/4, Oasis Dancer 8/1, Filfil 33/1

Segal has tipped Ardkilly Witness and Royal Prize