Bets 31/05/2013

Gloomy Sunday was genius. Ha. Love it when 25/1 shot comes in, especially after a flat patch. But the facts where all there. That French form is strong and was franked at higher grades. Also the comments about his run flattening out in previous race were slightly odd. If you watch the race on youtube you’ll see why. Anyway back to today.

Espom 1.35 – Segal has gone for Ighraa 12/1. And why not. That French form is again very strong but I always worry about 3 year olds amongst the older bunch, but will stick with it as there are number I like in this and will be tough to pick the winner

Epsom 2.10 – I reckon Desai Jnr will be telling me to back Blue Surf as Perrett is boshing them in. I made my money on Blue Surf last year so happy to look elsewhere as too short. The one that looks big is Fattsota 12/1. Form in handicaps over here before stint in Meydan must give him a decent chance. And the man Dettori is onboard.

Epsom 2.45 – Custom Cut 14/1 looks big on his Irish form. Ground will be perfect and the Murty is up.

Epsom 3.20 – Segal has gone for Mister Music 12/1. Based on previous C&D form I get it, based on last few races, not totally convinced but the mark is tempting. The other interesting one is Maverick 8/1 based on current from and C&D runs.

Epsom 4.00 – There is a lot of chat about The Lark. Segal tipped her at 25/1. I don’t totally understand it. I’ve been mulling this one over for a while and struggling to see passed the first two in the market. Secret Gesture thumped a Listed field and the form was slightly franked in the Italian Oaks. Moth was flying home behind Just The Judge and we know how good that form is. I’ve read somewhere that the filly really didn’t handle the Newmarket track and which must be a worry here. I’ve backed Say Antepost as advised by Segal. The Banoffee form looks strong and Fallon is a master at Epsom. Banofee 10/1 also has a serious turn off foot and will be the bet for today, but if Moth handles the track I’d say is the class in the race.

Epsom 4.45 – Hasopop 9/4 looks to have the best form on show. Won last race far easier than paper shows. I do however had Here Comes When on my tracker but the form looks to have slumped a bit. Hope I don’t regret.

Bets 30/05/2013

Just having one of those prolonged periods, where am slowly ebbing dollar. Not going back to jumps again, until the season kicks off and not touching any C6 races unless I’m tracking a horse.

Sandown 6.10 – Significant Move 3/1 will appreciate the slower ground and although beaten 5 lenghts by Hanseatic that race will work out well.

Sandown 6.40 – I had reservations about Steventon Star Evs with the draw and Autumns Blush and Montaigne in the race. However they are both non runners and SS ought to win this and frank the Anticipated formline via Justice Day

Sandown 7.15 – Segal has tipped up Model Pupil 11/1. It’s likely to be slower ground by race time and so feel can eliminate a few from the pack. High Jinx may want slightly further and Times Up carries a penalty. I wonder whether Gloomy Sunday 25/1 is the bet to have. Les Beaufs is a decent horse and although was a decent weight give there’s a few pounds today and Peslier gets the leg up. Ferland’s horses are in good nick. I admit this is ambitious but hey ho.

Sandown 8.50 – Spas Dancer 3/1 looks like the obvious winner. The value may lie with Swing Alone 16/1

Bets 29/05/2013

Beverley 7.05 – Half on Carragold 7/1 who is running to form but arguably goes best over C&D and the other half on Moccasin 20/1 who has decent form on the books; better than paper suggests.

Beverley 7.35 – Lexington Rose 11/4 has the best form to show behind a classy Bedale Memory. Return to better ground will also suit.

Beverley 8.05 – Can’t split Heeraat or Hamza in my head or on paper over this distance, so Hamza 10/11 w/o Heeraat is my bet

Will have a cheeky punt on the jumps today but only Accs:

@ Fontwell  Dimpsy Time 9/2 doubled with Tiller Belle 4/1

@ Punchestown a blind E/w Acc on horses I know the names of. Not looked at form but Moon Dice 9/2, Seabass 5/4, Stonemaster 3/1, Some Article 4/1

Bets 28/05/2013

Yesterday was another frustrating day. 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, but happens and at least the e/w acc came in.

Leicester 3.00 – Pythagorean is the favourite and rightly so on paper, but I think Testamatta 16/1 is overpriced. The form of the 2yr h/c @ Newmarket is strong enough at this level and looks like has progressed over the winter after a walk in the park on seasonal reappearance.

Redcar 4.10 – Willbeme 10/1 goes well fresh, potentially has improved over the break and can continue to lift the form of previous race.

Leicester 4.30 – So far my new found attempts to understand pedigree have failed. Pedigree is all the chat about Dawn Approach for the Derby and I guess we’ll see the importance of it next week. Toofi 6/1 is from Henrythenevigator and closely related to Reckless Abandon. Varian is in decent form and has a decent SR at Leicester. Let’s see what happens. Fats has a new theory too – Jockey bookings might be more significant than form!? Well My King of Jazz was beaten by a nose by an 8/1 shot that Barzy rode; his only ride of the day. He has another one today in this race – Dalaki 66/1! Let’s see what happens! Ha

Yarmouth 7.10 – Patriotic 6/1 drop in trip is hopefully the answer. Has been running in decent handicaps. Looks a good opportunity.

Also watch out for any of Fredick Ty's rides at Yarmouth. He has a 21% SR with +£154.00 profit

Bets 27/05/2013

Nailed a few in Curragh yesterday. Segal lost me more money and eagerness/stupidity to crack big handicap races with no prior knowledge cost me all profit.

Redcar 4.00 – Eshtibaak 9/4 has decent enough form to suggest is the best handicapped in this. Cumani who has won this race a couple of times has Gab The Great but can’t see the form although the drop in trip looks potentially like the right thing to do. Silver Lime wasn’t really aimed at this and I think needs further. Tahaamah 5/1 w/o the fav looks a decent bet as he was travelling really well in last race until back end of race and the step back in trip ought to suit

Windsor 3.20 – I’s still sticking with the Yeeoow form line. Lady Gibraltar franked the form and first time headgear on Tropics 10/3 might help him stick the end of race out. Will be fitter after first race of season.

Windsor 3.55 – King of Jazz 9/2 always looks like he is going to win or at least go close until push comes to shove. Has taken a drop in class today along with Signor Sassi who looks the main danger.

Bets 26/05/2013

I didn’t have a chance to look at Ireland yesterday so I missed Magician and one of my Meydan horses Hitchens. Not saying would have backed it as didn;’t look at the card but would have been likely. Only had a few winners yesterday and took a few hits, but again reminds me to just leave them alone if I don’t have time. Anyway back to today, Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for two today:

Longchamp 2.40 – Mandour 9/1
Curragh 3.35 - Hanky Panky 20/1

AOB is just ridic and probably not worth taking him on in too many races, but I’m not really average with Irish racing:

Curragh 1.45 – Sir John Hawkins 6/5, even though lots of money appearing for Master of Time

Curragh 2.15 – Bob Le Beau 16/1 won this 2 years ago of a similar mark, but it’s likely might struggle with top weight against some younger improvers. No idea who it might be, but chance with Raydari 9/1 who looks to be slightly ahead of the handicapper. Will need a smart ride though and luck in running with such a big field.

Curragh 2.45 – Watching Leading Light 4/5 stretch away from Dibayani was pretty impressive

Curragh 3.20 – I’m not betting on this race but Ladbrokes opened 2/7 on Camelot which suggests a lot of confidence behind him. Al Kazeem will give him some trouble.

Curragh 3.55 – Just The Judge 11/4 can compensate for 2^nd place in UK leg. It’s not a clear cut thing though. Big Break looks badly drawn but perhaps a better horse. Snow Queen came from far back to finish well in the UK leg and Maureen is freaking nippy, but sticking with the favourite.

Curragh 4.30 – Foolish boy for trying to tackle this. Not heard of any of these horses. Foot Perfect 33/1 has produced his best races on good ground over 6f. Had all of 2012 off and not really come back to form which is why such a big price. If somehow manages to bounce back to the form that saw him run close to Gordon Lord Byron must have a chance. Royal Empress 16/1 on form with Letir Mor over C&D last year.

Longchamp 1.30 – Parle Moi 6/1 looks a decent bet in form behind Esoterique

Lonchamp 3.10 – Last Train 15/8 ought to hold form

Bets 25/05/2013 - Temple Stakes

In Sweden today so must be brief. Pricewise has picked out 3 today:

York 2.55 - Judge N Jury 14/1
Haydock 3.15 - Code of Honor 9/1, Red Avenger 12/1

My picks, but no time for lotsa commentary.

Chester 2.30 - An Cat Dubh 7/1 is handicapped averagely but up in trip needed and likes it here.

Chester 3.10 - Last chance for Gatepost 10/3

Chester 3.40 - Mysterious Man 7/2

Chester 4.15 - Chosen Character 4/1

Goodwood 2.05 - Asfare 13/8 and on OR

Goodwood 4.05 - Noble Mission 4/6 likes it here and on OR even though Moment In Time is the value as should be rated 6lb higher based on penultimate run.

Haydock 2.10 - Albaqaa 4/1 looks in good form and 8f looks ideal. Short price for a big handicap though.

Haydock 3.15 - Newstead Abbey 11/2, Pure Excellence 40/1. If Here Comes When 9/2 is really well handicapped then worth a double with Breton Rock 5/2 @ Goodwood 3.35

Haydock 3.50 - I remember watching this race last year on the balcony in glorious sunshine. WTF is wrong with the weather. Anyway Reckless Abandon is by far the best horse in the race and gets a decent 3yr old allowance, but I'm not sure drop in trip can beat Sole Power 2/1. RA could well have improved further and could well demolish this field but would rather wait and see.

Haydock 4.20 - Polar Venture Vs Saloomy r f/c

Haydock 4.55 - Mississippi 4/1

Haydock 6.00 - Enobled 13/8

York 1.50 - Have a free bet on this race from B365 - No idea. Umm Pintura 7/2

York 2.20 - I really hope Mad Moose doesn't improve as Songcraft 7/4 should be hard to beat and his trainer is banging them in

York 2.55 - Ancient Cross 10/1

York 4.00 - Lyric Street 14/1 looks a big price. Ignore last race and just check out form behind Address Unknown, SGW, High Jinx and Mount Athos - down 4 pounds = 4 lengths.

Bets 23/05/2013

Goodwood 3.10 – Chandlery 10/1 takes a drop in class and looks well handicapped back in trip, back at Goodwood. At 1m and another track I wouldn’t back it.

Goodwood 3.45 – I’m looking at the form against Liber Nauticas at Goodwood and Soviet Rock when giving weight and think Heading North 4/1 has a solid chance.

Sandown 7.05 – Sea Shanty 5/4 can take this despite the rise. Surprised he was allowed to start of 73 after finishing so close to Moohaajim at Ascot

Sandown 8.10 – Excellent Result was one of a only a few horses that didn’t frank the Telescope maiden form. With good ground and SBS string in good form can hopefully tuck into victory

Bets 22/05/2013

Totally spot on to take on the Hannon short price fav yesterday. The formline was there to see. Same about the rest of the races though. No excuses - just flops.

Work getting busy again so no time for punting. Had a quick look at one race - a hard one at that...

Southwell 1.50 – Favourite Jebel Tara 13/8 is worthy but also w/o the fav Master of Song 11/1 is tempting with draw in favour and C&D form

2.30pm update...Just checked the result of this race. Jebel Tara won at 11/4 so happy with that, but check out the gamble on Master of Song. I backed it w/o the favourite and if he would have broken well I think would have had 2nd place wrapped up at 11/1. Gutted!

Always nice to know you found a plot horse a few hours before the off, even if it doesn't win....

Bets 21/05/2013

Newcastle 4.30 - Mean It 4/5. Decent form for this level. Could have got much closer in last race had he kicked earlier

Newcastle 5.30 - Hoping Well Painted 5/2 puts last run behind him and returns to ways when was closely running around with Riot of Coulour, Tartiflette and Jack Dexter. If not MyboyAlfie ought to take advantage followed by Kingscroft. However fingers crossed Well Painted is well primed for today.

Pontefract 6.50 - I was toying with Sir Boss for a while, but then I saw Kandari 11/4 who looks well enough treated off 77.

Pontefract 7.20 - I'd never ordinarily take on a short price HH pair, but I feel I need to with Master Carpenter 11/4. He ran a blinder in penultimate race and perhaps better than the favourite.

Bets 20/05/2013

Didn't wake early enough to check cards and internet is butters today, so only read the stats pages in RP. That means I'm stuck with:

Newton Abbot 4.20 - Fiftyonefiftyone 5/2
Windsor 7.40 - Beep 9/2

If get home before evening races will have a quick look.

Bets18/05/2013

Oh no. Hungover. Yesterday, for the 3rd day at York I had big priced places. However had a few cheeky short price winners which was nice. Can only handle a brief look, on top of what Segal has gone for:

Pricewise:

Newmarket 2.20 - Mubaraza 12/1

Newmarket 2.55 - Brazen 7/1

Newbury 2.40 - Modern Tutor 15/2, Signo Sassi 16/1

Newbury 3.50 - Beauty Parlour 6/1

Me:

Newbury 2.40 - Khawatim 6/1

Newbury 3.50 - Farhh 5/1

Newmarket 2.20 - Caravan Rolls On 4/1

Newmarket 3.30 - Dundonnell 9/4

Bets 17/05/2013 - Dante Day 3

Another big priced bet placed and another day of fairly useless bets at York! Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for a few more today:

York 2.15 – Easy Terms 10/1, Rio’s Roasanna 20/1

York 2.45 – Guarantee 12/1

I have stronger fancies away from York today!

York 1.45 – Quatour clearly took a step up last time out, but in her maiden I thought Hoku 7/1 was perhaps ran a better race. Slow start and then was looking solid until Quatour drifted across after having the rail most of the way. Bedale Memory 7/2 is all the rage in the betting!

Newbury 2.00 – Winsili’s 2/1 form looks the best on offer. Lovely Pass, Desert Blossom and Music Chart have all created impressions.

York 2.15 – Crackentorp is one I always keep an eye on at York, but normally over further and Easterby really isn’t into the swing of things yet, so will pass over this time. Hanoverian Baron 14/1 has M Murphy onboard. I like this kid and his 5lb claim could make all the difference on a horse we know goes well at York and well enough of soft.

York 2.45 – Royal Diamond 11/1 won last years Irish St. Leger beating of the like of Fame and Glory and Simenon. He goes well here too so it feels like he is a big price. Glen’s Diamond was second in this last year, but think the ground will go against him. Joshua Tree, Quiz Mistrees and Top Trip all have clear chances but still think at the prices work a punt on Royal Diamond.

York 3.15 – I’ve started (today) keeping an eye on pedigree after Libertarian popped up yesterday. Annie’s Fortune 8/1 is by Montjeu who bebes generally improve in step up to 1m and beyond. Finished well behind Just the Judge last time out, but the horse behind him that day finished 5 lengths behind Sky Lantern in the Gs.

Newmarket 3.30 – Justice Day 8/13 – Form just keeps getting franked

Newbury 3.40 – I picked Ninjago last time out @ 7/1 based on from with Just The Judge. He romped home and ought to again today. Was available at 7/4 yesterday.

York 3.50 – Minefield. After a REALLY quick glance Lastchancelucas25/1  a C&D winner, winner on heavy ground and okayish mark based on Epsom race gets my skinny vote.

Newmarket 4.05 – Was so close with a big double with Halyaman 4/1 last time. Hopefully can regain some compensation

York 4.25 – I have Prophesy 12/1 in my RP Tracker but I have no idea why. I don’t fancy it looking at the race but maybe I thought something of it one day? Hmm.

Newmarket 5.15 – Worth taking on the fav here as a big field. Border Legend 7/1 has the form with Lahaag and easy to forgive Newbury effort as has never run well there.

Bets 16/05/2013 - Dante Day 2

Got away lightly with a couple of big price places yesterday. Segal has gone for 4 today!

York 1.45 – Dungannon 12/1 and Mister Mannanan 10/1. The latter is one of my picks too.

York 2.15 – Emirates Queen 7/1

York 3.15 – Fort Bastion 7/1 – Again, one of my picks.

Seem to be somewhat in sync with Segal today. Hopefully that’s a good thing!

York 1.45 – The most obvious bet here is Jamaican Bolt 6/1. Form with Mass Rally, Jack Dexter & Shropshire. Also Nicholls reckons Mister Mannanan 10/1 has a great chance in this too. So do I watching that last Chester race. Massively stuck in traffic but flew home.

York 2.15 – I wouldn’t like to call it, so stick with Segal

York 2.45 – I was all over Telescope for this but since his defection I’m not playing. Will be tight if the last match between 3 of them plays out again!

York 3.15 – Fort Bastion 7/1 is class. Hopefully there is more improvement left, Moore is onboard and fingers crossed can smash top weight. Also don’t write off Prince of Johanne 20/1 at a bigger price. Would not have liked the ground last time.

York 5.00 – Dazinski 14/1 has decent, form and course record. Hidden Justice 5/1 just looks well ahead of the handicapper

Newmarket 6.25 – Elkaayed brings the Telescope form to the table

Also on the races avoided will just go for an e/w treble on Cubinata, Indian Cheif and Smoottalkingrascal. 

Bets 15/05/2013 - Dante Day 1

Tom Pricewise Segal had no winners at the York Dante Festival last year but has gone for 3 horses today:

York 1.45 - Lahaag 6/1

York 2.15 – Louis The Pious 11/1, Farlow 16/1

I’ve never had a decent record at the Dante and after a couple of days ago I’m going to switch to £20 punting. If I win I win less, if I lose I lose more, but I want the next 3 days to be more about trying to figure York out

York 1.45 – Segal has gone for Lahaag which is exactly what I’d do looking at the Chapter 7 form and form over C&D. In an attempt to outsmart myself and York I’m also keen on Eastern Destiny 20/1. Has won every other race 3 times and The Deia Sunrise and Snow Tropper lines aren’t bad. Rain will help according to trainer.

York 2.15 – Again I would have gone with Segal on this on backed Farlow. Looks like he is also following the Yeeoow formline according to his write up but I’m not overly confident about this as I was with the others in this formline. Struglling to see where the pace will come from but perhaps Nocturn will take it up so I’ll go with Mississippi 9/1 who is drawn close enough. I think the Enrol form is another to keep an eye on and 6lb rise is totally fair.

York 2.45 – I know I will regret taking on the top 2 in the market but I will also regret not giving Hollowina 16/1 one more chance. Could be my clanger horse for the season

York 3.15 – Every part of me wants to back Royal Rascal, but I know 3year olds struggle in races like this. Tickled Pink is another I really like and this horse thumped horses rated higher than is now but again 4 yr olds seemingly struggle. Horses with penalties also struggle so that rules out Maarek who would have been next on my list. I’m just going to have to back TIddliwinks 25/1 last years winner and Bogart 80/1 because Fats knew I would do this and I’ll be gutted if Bogart placed. Ryan is in decent form and has a decent record in this race so both must have a chance.

York 3.50 – Opera Box 9/1 is in my RP horse tracker and has everything in place to go close.

York 5.00 – Old Man Clegg 25/1 can out run his price

Bets 14/05/2013

Yesterday was a stark reminder about the greater difficulty in lower class racing, races full of new handicappers, progressing 3 year olds and unexposed maidens. I need to stop trying to solve them - it's really not easy. I'm annoyed at myself for not sticking with Glorious Protector. Backed him last time as had form with Telescope. I skimmed through the racing today. No betting on that basis.

Segal has gone for Say in the Oaks @ 25/1 but I totally missed that price.

Bets 13/05/2013

Once again, floppsy in France. I shall be avoiding in future (except for Pricewise bets). Could be a good day for Hannon and Hughes today.

Doncaster 3.15 – Glossy Posse 11/2 for the Double H Team

Doncaster 3.50 – Grandorio 11/10 can go in again before the handicapper has a say!

Doncaster 4.25 – Appears to be a bit of a gamble on Shesastar. Was 9/1 yeterday into 5/1, but I’m going to take on with King of Jazz 6/1. His penultimate race behind Move In Time was value for more as had no room at all and finished strongly enough to suggest if gets the breaks will go close.

Doncaster 5.00 – I can’t work out why Curly Come Home is being backed against Apache Glory. Interestingly White Diamond is also being backed with CCH and both of them ran is same race at Leicester last time out. Can’t see where that form has been franked and looking at Bridge that Gap as a marker there might be a case for the money at the weights but watching the videos, Apache Glory 3/1 looks to have more in hand

Windsor 6.50 – HH Team again – World Record 7/2 looks handicapped well enough

Doncaster 7.20 – Montiridge 10/11 has a huge weight allowance he must take advantage off!

Bets 12/05/2013

Segal to the rescue. The Victoria Cup blew all my formlines away. I need to watch the race again, but damn. Only a couple today as short on time, so first pit stop in Pricewise.

Longchamp 2.08 - Segal has tucked into US Law 20/1. There's so much talk about the draw that it's totally put me off Olympic Glory. I'm going with Morandi 10/1. I think Segal has found the value in this race when compared to Morandi, but Morandi was mighty impressive last year and was travelling very well in the Fontainbleu before wandering a bit upfront. Hopefully will be better this time out and Soumillon can land the first.

Lonchamp 2.40 - I'm hoping for a Soumy double today. Alterite 6/1 went very close in the Boussac and that race has a strong record as a trial. Segal has gone for Baie D'honneur 22/1

Leopardstown 3.55 - Battle of Marengo 4/11. Lump. Hope don't regret.

Bets 11/05/2013

Yeeeeoooooooow. That was the 3rd decent handicap landed this year at double figure prices and glad I backed it twice. A LOT of racing and punting to be had today.

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for a few big priced ones today. Hope one comes in:
Haydock 1.50 - Hollow Tree 25/1
Haydock 3.30 - Barizan 20/1
Ascot 3.50 - Cape Classic 16/1, Bertiewhittle 16/1

I've gone for a few based on old form(hasn't worked out well for me this year), based purely on stats(just feel like it today) and the usual based on current formlines (which is all I really should punt on as has worked out well this year):

Ascot 1.30 – On stats only. Channon has run 3 horses in this and won with all 3. He runs Finflash 8/1 today.

Ascot 2.05 – I know I went a bit mental at Chester looking for outsiders and it went tits up, but Tinshu 22/1 looks overpriced. I know why though. Doubts about stamina and also the top 3 look solid enough in the betting and Scatter Dice 5/1 looks the best of the 3.

Nottingham 2.15 – On stats only. Duke Cosimo 6/4. Stoute 37% SR and teams up with Eaves with a SR of 30%

Lingfield 2.20 – Secret Gesture 4/5 has money for it. Interesting because Miss You Too does look solid behind Havana Gold and Just The Judge. I’ll follow the hype though.

Haydock 2.25 – Hanseatic 5/4 looked very green last time out. Hopefully learned a lot and will step up.

Ascot 2.40 – Main Sequence 11/10

Lingfield 2.55 – Greatwood 8/13

Ascot 3.25 – Westwiththewind 7/4

Lingfield 3.25 – Sheikhzayedroad 7/4

Haydock 3.30 – Now the ground is fast have no choice but to go Forgotten Voice 6/1

Ascot 3.50 – Wow. There are front runners drawn low, in the middle and high. I made a shortlist, it has 14 horses on it! Ha. I have to decide which formline is better. Jack Dexter, Tartiflette, Move in Time or Haaf a Sixpence. Feck. Lightening Cloud 14/1 looks to have chances based on his last two runs. I’ll also give Tartiflette 14/1 another go despite the 6lb rise but one I really like the look off is Jamesie 14/1. That Leopardstown race is seriously strong form!

Lingfield 4.00 – For some reason I backed Ultrasonic last night. Hunch maybe, who knows. Looking at the card now I would have gone Lily’s Angel but I’ve already bet

Ascot 4.25 – Now I’m going mental, but some formlines I like in both of these, albeit old time form. Clear Spring 33/1 and Lunar Deity 28/1

Haydock 4.40 – Fry has won with 3 of his last 4 horses. King of The Night 10/1 has been dropped 15lb which I can’t understand. I must be missing something, because I thought Theatrical Star was massively underrated. Looks like a cheeky find!? Sure the market will dig this one out at some point

Warwick 6.35 – On stats only. Kopkap 7/1. Ed McMahon 43% SR and 25% at the track. In the last 5 years his 2yr old SR is 19% (+£38.77)

Bets 10/05/2013

I made some horrendous choices at Chester yesterday. Not sure why, but back to simplicity today and no punting if uncertain. Ground has switched to good to soft at Chester which stats show to negate low draw bias in the sprints.

Chester 1.45 – Pricewise has gone for Postscript @ 8/1. I decided to avoid the obvious choices yesterday, not sure why, so today Gandalak 3/1 has to be the choice. There will be a few front runners but hopefully won’t stop the win.

Chester 2.45 – No idea which way round the top two will finish

Chester 3.50 – Clockmaker has decent claims but is hit and miss. Personal Touch 3/1 is in good form, and has a consistent record including a decent race behind Jack Dexter last year.

Ascot 6.00 – I’ve finally found another hurdler I wanted back in a flat staying race! Kuda Huraa 5/1 looks to have plenty of speed at the end of jumps races over longer and looks on a workable mark. Sign Manual has a large weight rise to overcome and may well do so but don’t fancy the prices. The other one I’ve always liked but never backed because of mark is Montaff 10/1. He’s slipped enough pounds now to get into a place today and has no excuse not to.

Ascot 7.05 – I told the boys yesterday to back Yeeoow 12/1. They scoffed at the suggestion. I backed it twice in spite. He’s now 11/2 in places and the reason is he finished a close to Move in Time who is still well handicapped and went on to a respectable effort in a G1, Shropshire who has been solid this year and had a claimer, Hitchens who is another solid yardstick and finally Hamza who bolted up at Newmarket in a C2H last week, in a tough race at Donny.

Nottingham 6.15 – Kiwi Bay 5/1 drop in trip huge bonus and oh look two horses that beat him last time, Icebuster and Tres Coronas.

Ripon 6.55 – Chooseday 9/1 down in class, pieces back on, back to fast ground which is clear is much needed down the final stretch.

Ripon 7.30 – Snooky 5/1. Bolted up against Showboating and Haylaman who was my unlucky loser yesterday

Bets 09/05/2013

M’Selle broke badly from a good draw and then was badly hampered but must remember in future to sack off hold up horses on fast ground in Chester sprints looking at the way that panned out. Hollowina just couldn’t get out and switched into the open and then got bumped. Banofee was mightily impressive, but I just need to not bet on fields full of maidens, unexposed sorts and potentials – Easy way to lose moolah! I thought Tominator was going to bag the Chester Cup at one point, but my savior was Space Ship. That form continues to bolster the Telescope form.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has picked two today:

Chester 1.45 – Eshtibaak

Chester 2.15 – Dick Doughtywylie 14/1

I think it’s going to be a tough day for punters, but you know me….

Chester 1.45 – Flying Power 20/1. Has the ability to win in this class with the step down in trip on this mark. Wolves like Chester is a tight course, but hopefully can translate to turf.

Chester 2.15 – Highlight Knight is going to set the pace, Miblish 9/1 will take over and just hold on from Gabrial. Ha – well, it’s how I imagine it assuming Bonfire is not going to run as too quick

Chester 2.45 – All the money and hype for Ruler of The World. Got 6/5 yesterday, but with lack of experience, certainly not one to bank on.

Chester 3.15 – Stats suggest there is no draw bias over this distance. Here Comes When has some solid form as a 2yr old. Recent winners though have had a 5/6 runs under their belt and I’m keen to keep Hannon onside at the moment too. Therefore Dashing David 13/2 who ran well in his final race last year. I just hope Moore doesn’t sit too far back. He didn’t have much luck yesterday…

Chester 3.50 – Jive 11/2

Chester 4.25 – Low draw looks like a must and the one at the biggest price needs a huge bounce back but willing to go with Queen Aggie 20/1. Has a decent chance at this weight based on previous C&D form and Kempton

Chester 5.00 – Swing Alone 18/1 is in blinding form, but Haylaman 9/2 does look on a very tempting mark. And Spencer is onboard.

Goodwood 2.30 – Bancuanaheireann 13/2 is good value and is part of the formlines that made me decent money last year

Bets 08/05/2013 - Chester Cup

Chester 1.45 – Low draw is key on this one. So I’ll go with draw 1 and M’Selle. Showed has the speed in first race. Next couple races may have been slightly tactical. There will be a lot of horses making all, so hopefully M’Selle can come from a handy position and pick them off. However writing some of these horses off because of draw is a risky strategy…

Chester 2.15 – Like the first race it’s probably best to sit out and watch, but I have no discipline. I really want to back Gertrude Versed, but the form really doesn’t stack up. Although half sister won this for Gosden few years back. I’m going to take a risky bet on Hollowina 16/1. I think the step up in trip will be the making on the horse. Trainer has a 25% SR here.

Chester 2.45 – This will be a decent race and looks a decent renewal. Stats suggest the draw won’t be a massive hindrance.  I’m still keen on Tominator 10/1 as ground has stayed quick. He is normally a favourite pick for Segal, so surprised he didn’t pick him out. So many have chances. Ingleby Spirit has never raced beyond 1.4, but his hurdles efforts suggest will be no problem, but it’s a risk. Justification is Segal’s pick and must have every chance if takes to quick ground. Softsong should not be last in the betting, so had a half bet on Betfair at 90/1. Has decent form on the flat in France and ran a blinder behind Meandre on good ground back in the day so ground should be okay. Countrywide Flame has obvious chances. Buckland 12/1 is potentially well ahead of the handicapper after last week’s performance behind Estimate. Can’t have Ile De Re at the weights and on the ground. Thimaar looks handicapped to his legit mark, else would have been tempting with the conditions and same goes for Simenon. If Theology is fit and back to best he could make a mockery of the chance the handicapper has given. I like Suraj, but is perhaps not race fit and also is drawn uber wide.

Feck so in summary – this is not easy. I’ve gone full bets on Tominator 10/1 and Buckland 12/1 and half bets on Softsong 90/1 and Theology 16/1

Chester 3.15 – I like both Segal’s picks (Gatepost and Captain Dunne) but the problem I have with both is fitness. Therefore I’m far keener on Noble Storm 9/1 who has run well here before, can go fresh and has okay draw.

Chester 3.50 – Space Ship 10/3 without Russian Realm. Has decent form behind Telescope and Improvisation. Top young ones.

Bets 07/05/2013

No idea why I wasted my free bet yesterday. Was utterly nutty. Anyhow. Chester Cup tomorrow. Nailed this meeting last year, but that was because the fit jumpers were ready for the gruelling conditions. Will be harder this year, but initial thoughts are to look at Tominator and Countrywide.

Kempton 4.40 – Pick a Little 12/1 is 2lb lower with a claimer than when running a very solid race over C&D in penultimate race. Willy TD will need to ride him early like and he can fly home late to pick this up.

Two races based purely on stats and not on race worthiness:

Yarmouth 2.20 – I’m not one for short prices favs anymore or 4 horse races, but all the stats say Autumn Blush 4/7

Catterick 8.10 – With Haggas red hot you’d hope Noble Deed 5/4 bounces back to decent form on turf

Bets 06/05/2013

Still gutted about Just The Judge. Looking at it again this morning, I'm half convinced it's it was a jockey victory as opposed to JTJ losing. Hmm. anyway will have to get over it.

Warwick 2.35 - I feel at tad reckless but going to use my free £25 bet with Ladbrokes on Queen of the Tarts 5/1. Travelled well enough in last race and although nowhere near Anticipated who I really like think the form is decent enough. There is bucket loads of cash for the Haggas debutant and imagine the flying Hannon newbie will also figure, so this is a dodge bet now that I've talked it through, but it's too late!

Okay I've looked through the rest of these quickly and head screwed back on. I'm going to enjoy a glorious day without punting on average racing. Later.

1,000 & 2,000 G's thanks to Matthew Tester

Antepost bets can be worth it sometimes! I thought I was going to land a phat payout on Just The Judge today. Am gutted. I had about £500 on Antepost bets in total, so when I checked one of my accounts I was shocked to see I had a cool £1k sitting in it. Someone smart backed Dawn Approach @ 12/1 as well. Result. So I had an ok weekend in the end, which makes up for missing all the action!!! 

My biggest loser was Nargys £75e/w @ 25/1, who was seriously tied to Just The Judge on form. I have to say though that Just The Judge was not an instinctive pick of mine, it was my hero in the BHA, Matthew Tester. I look forward to his choice every year, and every year he near enough nails it. Thanks old boy.

Bets 05/05/2013 - 1000 Guineas

Wow. That was impressive. Many will say it was never in doubt. I certainly didn’t think so when I backed Dawn Approach at 20/1 on Betfair. Sadly I started laying out at 7’s. I made enough of Dawn Approach and Glean to stop major embarrassment yesterday, although have a lot of antepost write offs, so defo down. After Boonga Roogeta won I had one of those feelings. Tangerine, The Confessor, Sentaril and Revolutionary all placed! Ah well. Today, Just the Judge could hook me up a big win….

Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up a couple today and still has two Antepost bets outstanding:

Newmarket 2.05 – Fennell Bay 10/1

Newmarket 3.10 – Gabriel’s Lad 9/1

AP Bets – 2k – Snow Queen 40/1, What A Name 14/1

I had an incorrect averseness to favourites yesterday, but seem to be for them today. No doubt will backfire! Will be missing all the action again though! My bets today:

Newmarket 2.05 – Stencive 7/2. Hughes, Haggas, Azeemah formline, proven over course. What’s not too like. Opinion 10/1 may be a interesting on the Telescope comments

Newmarket 2.35 – Shirocco Star has every chance and I may well whack into a favs accumulators, but I want to take a chance on Dank 6/1. If you watch the last Newmarket race, I’m convinced he just got caught a little flat footed before was travelling very well. I think a reversal is on the cards with Thistle and Chigun. Just hope can pip the favourite using the Stoute rampage as assistance!

Newmarket 3.10 – I think the market has got this right today with the top 5 or 6. Looking at the draw, the likely pace is going to come from the low draw. I’m not sure Ladyship will get any help in that respect and although looks decent enough to win this will rule out on that basis. I think Segal has a decent chance here with Gabriel’s Lad. I think Shropshire is going to go close here, but for me Hughes can steer Hitchens 8/1 to victory. Think Gibbons left it too late at Donny. Will get enough cover and can defy top weight.

Newmarket 3.50 – Today is the first time I saw Hot Snap’s last race. Anyone not impressed with that should watch it again. I will put Hot Snap in an acc, but I can’t have any more bets in this. I really want Just the Judge to land me a big AP win. The form however look less than it did a few weeks ago. Rasmeyaa 12/1 may be the one gone slightly unnoticed.

Salisbury 2.20 – One to keep an eye on. Maybe a fun tricast between Sun Central, Mawaqeet and Mysterious Man

Bets 04/05/2013 - 2000 Guineas

Woopee freaking do. We are here! It’s going to be big. And I’m going to miss it all L However, won’t stop me from punting. The first thing I have to do is go through ALL my AP bets. This might take a while. So, Antepost bets:

AP Losing Bets:

£5.00 E/w Treble – Dawn Approach 10/1, Mars 8/1, Newfangled 8/1 – LOSE - Gutted about this

£75.00 e/w Nargys 1k 25/1 – LOSE – Was hopeful about the value in this

£15.00 e/w Aquatinta 1k 40/1 – LOSE – Will keep an eye out on this one though for heavy ground

£15.00 e/w Sendmylovetorose 1k 33/1 – LOSE – Stupid bet

AP 1k:

£100.00 e/w Just the Judge 1k 20/1

£15.00 e/w What A Name 1k 12/1

£15.00 e/w Snow Queen 40/1 1k

AP 2k:

£15.00 e/w George Vancouver 2k 20/1

Through backing and laying on Betfair £23.50 liability pays £155.51 on Dawn Approach and £296.50 on Mars

AP Accs:

£15.00 e/w Double – Moth 7/1 1k, Mars 2k 9/1

£15.00 e/w Double – BoM 7/1 Derby, Mars 2k 9/1

Right that wasted 45 minutes. Man my admin is slack, but I’ve got is all down now. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked out:

Newmarket 2.05 – Rye House 7/1

Newmarket 2.35 – Doc Hay 25/1

Newmarket 3.50 – Moohaajim 25/1

Churchill Downs 11.24 – Normandy Invasion 11/1

I had a look at how I did last year and it wasn’t a white wash but it wasn’t a profitable one either so will try not to go overboard. Right, my bets for today are:

Newmarket 2.05 – Basseterre was one of my frustrating horses last here and has a chance, but I struggle with him so will avoid. Am stuck on Dance and Dance, Icebuster, Boonga Roogeta and Patriotic. Feck. Will stick with Dance and Dance 25/1 on previous form and Icebuster 12/1 on current form. Will be annoyed if one of the other two win!

Newmarket 2.35 – Spirit Quartz 7/1 is a decent yardstick and I think the best horse in the race. (OR agrees). Tangerine Trees 16/1 has to be overpriced based on record here and current form. Make sure you go with bookies paying 4 places!

Newmarket 3.10 – 4 horse race. Avoid. Tactics will win it.

Newmarket 3.50 – So AP I already have Mars, George V and Dawn A covered. The obvious thing for me to do is back Toronado 2/1 with Ladbrokes who are refunding bets is Dawn Approach wins. This has to be between the first 2 in the market, but with Ballydole here it’s not that easy. We’ve not seen Garswood of the bridle, but he could easily be a contender as could Van Der Neer and Segal’s pick Moohaajim. It’s not clear cut. I’ve been a fan of Mars for a long time, but I think he’s my Derby winner. I reckon George V will be the best of the Ballydole lot today and that’s why I backed him AP @20/1. I’m not having any more bets. Sorry to disappoint J

Newmarket 5.00 – Unsinkable 11/2 looks the least unexposed even if the favourite does look decent

Newmarket 5.35 – Glean 4/1 on C&D form with Havana Gold. Hannon is flying too.

Goodwood 2.55 – The Confessor 13/2 has a solid record here and can go well fresh. Tempted by Shamaal but has been done over by draw here again

Goodwood 4.05 – Feel bad betraying Stirring Ballad, a horse that made me a lot of cash last year, but Sentaril 3/1 looks smart

Doncaster 6.45 – Bonnie Charlie 25/1 looks tempting on this mark over a furlong shorter than has previously gone. Will go straight into the lead and try and win it from the front.

Churchill Downs 11.24 – Revolutionary 9/1 worth a punt

Bets 03/05/2013

Very excited about the weekend. Ladbrokes are offering £25 refund if Dawn Approach wins. Suggest using all £25 with them. Interesting they are the shortest and have been for a while on Mars. I alwasy pay very close attention when Ladbrokes do this with the Ballydole lot. I've been a huge fan of Mars for a while, just gutted not seen him enough. Going to search for a couple of outsiders today, just for the hell of it.

Chepstow 4.20: Naalatt looks a decent bet with trainer in form, Hot Snap in the formline and last race, but I'm going to be a bit outrageous and suggest Saint Jerome 18/1. The last 3 times he ran on good or better and not on AW he produced decent efforts behind Blessington, Hototo and The Gold Cheo. On a mark of 77 up in trip on quick ground makes 18/1 feel too big

Musselburgh 4.00: Gadalak looks a worthy favourite but in my pursuit for a long shot I'll take Springheel Jake 20/1. Had a poor reappearance which I blame on the surface. Over C&D he ran a quick time and has conditions again to suit.

The wild SJ double pays 356/1.

Bets 02/05/2013

Redcar 3.30 – Looks between the top two in the market. Can’t split them so will stick with the Tartiflette line and go Summerinthecity (W/O Mont Ras) 7/4 just in case.

Bets 01/05/2013

Ascot 2.00 – Clearly not one to get too heavily involved in, but the way Hannon has started the season, the fact he’s won this 2 in last 3 years and more importantly the fact Anticipated 15/8 had a poor start and then won maiden with such ease. The money doesn't look like it's going the right way though.

Ascot 2.30 – Cruck Realta 10/3 based on form here but looks another not so easy one to call

Ascot 3.00 – Fencing is the most intriguing in this race but I have to be with Soverign Debt 9/2. Segal is all over this as well. At Listed level his form behind Excelebration really does stand out and he was travelling very well for a long time. Reckon these two and Stipulate will fill the first 3

Ascot 3.25 – I called out Earth Amber as a lively outsider last time out at 20/1 based on the form of his French races. Segal has plumped for him today at 12/1. I’m not yet convinced SGW is upto this level. Asker Tau has by far the best chance on paper but hasn’t done well first time out previously. Estimate has an obvious chance too but after Les Beaufs ran a decent race in Group Company behind Last Train I’m sticking with Earth Amber

Ascot 4.10 – One day I’ll learn to avoid punting in races like this, but for the time being I can’t separate Ninjago 7/1 and Snow King 7/1

Ascot 4.45 - Big race but nothing really stands out except for the favourite Rockalong 3/1, despite fact not run on turf yet. I expect a random will pop out the woodwork but I can't find it. Shouldn't really bet. Naughty boy.

Total Staked £300.00, Total Returned £422.88

£30.00 Anticipated 15/8 - WIN £105.00

£15.00 e/w Earth Amber 10/1 - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Sovreign Debt 9/2 - PLACED £31.88

£15.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Cruck Realta 3/1 - LOSE £0.00

£30.00 Rockalong 10/3 - WIN £130.00

£15.00 e/w Ninjago 7/1 - WIN £156.00

£30.00 e/w Accumulators N/A - LOSE £0.00

£15.00 e/w Snow King 7/1 - LOSE £0.00