I've had my head blown off with antepost runners not making it and/or going to different races.
Balko Des Flos and Ferny Hollow the two biggest acca busters.
Today calls for an Elliot acca and a fave acca too
Supreme - Can't believe only 9 lining up. That shows how scared everyone is of the runners entered then...?
Dysart and Contsitutional Hill have the highest ORs/RPRs so far and everyone raving about them. I can't back raving potential at these odds, even if likely winner comes from one of them. Coming into this race I've been all over Jonbon mainly due to pedigree, but I have so many accas with Jonbon in them already. Have to be worries about temperament given will be non stop loud roaring. I was worried about Hendo form, but he had a number of winners at the weekend so csan't use that as my excuse. I've never heard of Bringonthenight and Kilcruit was beaten over further by decent sorts but with Mullins onbaord it's a worry as SR is 4% at Chelt.
I had my eye on Mighty Potter for a different race as think goes further, but that's not a bad thing for the supreme. I think the way this race pans out, MP will be pushing hard a fair way out but will absolutely tonk up the hill. That Lepoarsdtown novice race has produced 4/4 winners. It's Elliot's only runner for the race. One dart = bullseye.
Antepost: Jonbon 3/1
Today: Might Potter 8/1
Arkle - I already have Magic Daze 25/1 ew Antepost. Don;t think can win especially given jockey booking but hey could easily make all like nearly did last year in the Mares Novice. I'm mega worried about HDB current form as well.
Given HDB form I can't go near Coeur Sublime, otherwise it would have been high on my list. I'll obviously be fuming if CS wins so maybe a small saver :) I just don't fancy Edwardstone/King. I don;'t believe Third TIme Lucki is a 153 horse and so really dont think Edward is 159. Leaves me with Blue Lord, Rivier Etel, Haut En Colours. They all ran in the Irish Arkle. Argubably Rivier should have won, but who knows what would have happened in HEC stayed up. Looking at previous forlines you can make a chase for it. It's pretty brave backing a 5 year old who fell last time out, but fook it. Blue Lord will go into an acca and I already have Rivere in ew Antepost Accas
Antepost: Magic Daze 25/1
Today: Haut En Colour 7/1
Ultima - I backed Floueur 11/1 Antepost, and Oscar Elite 25/1 Antepost.
I backed Floueur last week when Death Duty was the fave and so a shorter price and I was convinced Floueur could turn the tables on Death Duty as was a bad mistake at the last and stayed on very strongly. Looks like the market thinks so too now. With Gainford onboard the 3lb claim is solid.
Elliott/The Irish oddly dont have a very good record in this race and it doesn't matter as I've found a nag with 1 stone in hand ;)
Would love to see Frodon win, but won't get an easy lead, got top weight and still hold a grudge from when beat Waitiing Paitently :)
Does he Know for sure has a good chance. On penultimate run, I'd worry not well handicapped. On last race could argue is really well handicapped. Jumping is always a bit dodgey and maybe is better at Ascot. Even though hits a lot of trends, tough to back at 8/1 especially as trainer not in great nick.
I don't think Fantaskas is well handicapped and a few out of the handicap that surely can't back even if one is Oscars Elite. Given I've already backed it not much can do, but that form with Vanillier in the Albert Barlett is decent. Not fully convinced is a better hurlder but ran14lbs better when ran at festival last time. Ran well enough in a novice chase here before falling. Think an okay 25/1 chance.
I called out Ben Dundee for a different race but I'm convinced would have won two years back at the festival off this mark had it not have been for some fallers that hampered it. Ran a cracker over Xmas, and got to be a decent ew chance. Danny Mullins secured for the ride.
Vintage Clouds comes into this in even better form than last year but is 12 now and not sure ground will be soft enough? I really want to back Kiltealy Briggs as called it out antepost as being well handicapped but I think this is the wrong race? Coach Rambler won really well here before Xmas so worth a dabble but Full Back must be nearly a stone better than mark based on last run so gets the full backing here.
Antepost: Oscars Elite 25/1, Floureur 11/1
Today: Ben Dundee 20/1, Coach Rambler 11/1, Full Back 20/1
Mares Hurdle - I have Tellmesomthinggirl 15/2 Antepost for this and in double with Facile Vega 14/1. Again I'm so worried about HDB form but let's see how the day goes before panicking, although not convinced Facile will win either anymore.
Anyway back to this. I fancied Echoes In The Rain for a while. Then I saw PWM onboard and I can't risk that as well as the step up in trip in one go. Assume Paul Townsend choose Stormy Ireland over Echoes and the Reekel win in Jan good enough for me. Strong form
I don't want to back anymore, but struggling to get away from Queens Brook as well. I think will turn the tables on Burning Victory. Money
Antepost: Tellmesomethinggirl 15/2
Today: Stormy Ireland 6/1, Queens Brook 4/1
Boodles - I called out Prarie Dancer 25/1 in a post earlier this week and it's been smashed so I take that as a good sign. Whacked it in a few accas last week as well.
PD was the value pick against The Tide Turns using Icare Allen as a market. Obvs eveyone else has seen that now hence the price crash.
That said Gaelic warrior will probably hose up. Golden Sun and Sans Bruit have gone on to win g3s and g2 races in France and GW is running off 129. Admittedly I dont know what ORs you need to win pattern races in France but this feels like a shoe in. Not back at this price though.
There aren't really many I can get a good feeling for, but at a price Britza 25/1 might be worth a nibble.
Antepost: Prarie Dancer 25/1
Today: Britza 25/1
