Bets 28/11/2013

I’m trying a new tipster today as apparently they nail this festival and they have gone:

Union Du Chenet 18/1, La Reve 12/1, Harry Hunt 10/1, Irish Saint 8/1, Red Devil Lads 11/4. They can have half bets!

This is not and easy day and maybe just one punt in the big race:

Newbury 3.15 – I was all set to back Puffin Billy or Chatterbox, but I’m going to be controversial with myself and back Get Back In Line 5/1. Although far less experienced, he comes in on a very low mark. Using Special Catch as a form line who was heavily fancied at weekend this form is decent. I’ve hit rock bottom backing top weights in handicaps and I might regret not backing one of the top two, but worth a shot

Might be worth a small Nicholls acc too.

Away from Newbury Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up two for the Welsh National:

28/12/13 Welsh National – Goonyella 12/1, Amigo 40/1

Bets 24/11/2013

Yesterday was all set to be a good day when Ruler of All came close to landing a 16/1. Annie Power was decent and the 25/1 I took about Cue Card for GC looks decent. Except for that, it was a disaster. I’m not looking at the cards today except for Segal’s tips:

Navan 2.25 – Pass The Hat 9/1, Mad Brian 13/2

Bets 23/11/2013

Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up 4 today:

1.50 Haydock – Special Catch 14/1

2.25 Haydock – Two Rockers 9/1

3.00 Haydock – Dynaste 8/1

3.45 Haydock – Relax

I'm going to be bowling around in Fabric tonight so getting this out of the way:

12.10 Haydock – Ruler of All 16/1 has best form on show and drifted down the handicap mark, so not sure why so big

12.45 Haydock – Runswick Royal 6/1 that beaten Rolling Star comfortably before and Far West has to concede a fair bit of weight so take a chance with RR

1.00 Ascot – Civil Disobedience 9/1

1.15 Haydock – Our Island 8/1 in first time blinkers has best form on show

1.50 Haydock – Clondaw Kaempfer 9/2 beat The Liquidator few races back and was travelling pretty well against Taquin DeSeuil. A long time off but a decent handicap mark I reckon.

2.40 Ascot – Zarakander will probably struggle to give this much weight to Annie Power 4/5

3.00 Haydock – Bob Bob Bob’s Worth 5/2 On all known form he wins and wins well. I’ve jumped ship from Long Run. Cost me thousands in broken accs now.

3.15 Ascot – Lancetto 11/2 is weighted to reverse tables with Drumshambo

Bets 22/11/2013

Ascot 2.40 – I was looking at Greywell Boy who has very strong C&D handicap form. Is likely to improve for that too. BUT, it’s hard to get away from Double Ross 2/1 who has the best form line. At a glance finished 6 lengths behind Johns Spirit from 6lb out the handicap which puts Double Ross on a VERY GOOD mark. And then when you tie in Balder Success to the equation it rings Banker.

Bets 21/11/2013

Graphic was rats yesterday. Was very keen early on I assumed it was game over before went round the bend.

Chepstow 1.40 – Tigresse Bleue 4/6 is short but watch his last race. It was a stroll so won’t have used much energy. Banker of day

Chepstow 2.15 – Radmores Revenge 7/2 takes a drop in class on seasonal start. Has run well fresh last couple years and won at the course but just hope age not caught up with him and the young ones like Alborz don’t capitalise.

Mark Rasen 2.40 – If Compton Blue takes to soft ground could be a danger, but I won’t take the risk and instead Stick with Willy Fox 6/4 who was not penalised for an easy C&D win last time.

Meydan 3.20 – Hazaz 3/1 an easy C&D winner last week

Meydan 3.55 – Haatheq 1/2 ought to walk this. If Busker hit top form I would be worried at a big price.

Meydan 4.30 – If a fortnight ago was not a fluke then Muhtaram 3/1 is one a low low low handicap mark!

Meydan 5.05 – If Murbeh ran a bit better last week I’d be all over him. He didn’t so even though has the best form have to choose between Innocuous and Sand Stamp. Might got tricast or forecast?

Meydan 5.40 – The El Mansour race formline was a slow time but the best of those at the weights is now Representation 5/1. If Mizbah is fit he will outrun 14/1

Bets 20/11/2013

I really enjoyed the Open Meeting this year. Segal landed me some wads and I landed some really very good e/w bets. On Sunday if Pipe didn’t send out any runners I would have had a 9/2 (Saulisto Sunrise) winner, Evs (Sea Lord) winner, 10/1 (Sametegal) winner and 7/2 (Carningli) winner!!! The 560/1 quad in the end paid nothing as the Sea Lord race was only 4 runners L Either way I know I’m in the right area so looking forward to rest of jumps season. Also a few decent formlines to take away from it.

1.10 Hexham – I like Quinn’s horses who go from flat to jumps and arguably Forced Family Fun 13/8 was the best on flat. Quinns horses are running very well and he has a solid 42% course record

6.30 Kempton – Graphic 7/4 finally steps up in class and OR says he wins. C&D time says he wins too. 

Bets 17/11/2013

Hit some decent e/w accs yesterday including Colour Squadron, John’s Spirit, RIH, Shutthefrontdoor, Bradley, Southfield Theatre and Cross Kennon. If Segal would have hit the double I’d be oh so happy, but still am. The man is on fire, as were the bookies yesterday. Tom Pricewise Segal's picks make total sense to me and were on the shortlist...

Chelts 3.15 – Redera 40/1, Flaxen Flare 12/1

Another good card today to work through!

1.00 Chelts – Hobbs lot ran well yesterday and the form of Sausalito Sunrise’s 5/1 last race has not been bad at handicap level (using Aaim To Prosper as a marker). L Miller clearly a danger

1.35 Chelts – Sea Lord 5/4 is rates 20lb more than Lac Fontana who was one of my disappointments last year.

2.10 Chelts – My Bro S too much weight, The Cockney M doesn’t look good enough. Raya Star was arguably a better hurdler than Dodging Bullet but is 2 years more his senior and the reason I can’t back him was his only run at Chelts was pretty poor. So I’m left with Dodgin Bullets 7/4 and Ted Veale 11/4. Hmm which way to go?

2.15 Punchestown – Clearly not taking on Hurricane Fly, but can’t back him at 1/7. When Jezki was still in this he was 5/6 and I was happy to lump, but missed the boat.

2.40 Chelts – Sire De Grugy 5/6 can concede weight all round and win again.

3.15 Chelts – I just saw Jezki in the formline and saw it was Flaxen Flare 12/1 who walked a race in the festival. Flaxen Flare is in a formline with Redera 40/1 who looked a little unlucky in the VOB a couple years ago looks a decent price. Clearly Cash And Go goes well fresh and is on same mark as last year when a decent second. Henderson’s lot aren’t going that well so it’s a tough ask to back when other trainers are in blinding form. Court Minstrel romped home in the Scottish Champion Hurdle but again stable not in good form and up 11lb since then. The horse behind him that day was Sametegal 10/1 who won last time out over C&D and Nicholls hurdlers seem to be going pretty well!

3.50 Chelts – Carningli 9/2 had form franked by The Govaness who won the Listed NHF race here yesterday. And the form was from over C&D so has be to backed. Clearly a number of dangers with shed load of unexposed horses with other good form, but will stick with this one.

Fergal O'Brien has Dark Energy (1.00), Arthur McBride and Gunner Fifteen (3.50) running today.

Bets 16/11/2013

An 8/1 Segal winner and a 12/1 forecast = a good day yesterday. Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for only a few today:

Chelt 1.35 – Alvarado 20/1 and Bradley 8/1

Chelts 3.00 – Southfield Theatre 8/1

Uber competitive today, but just focus on course specialists…

12.40 Chelts – Royal Irish Hussar destroyed a listed field last time out, but Nicholls has beaten many a Hendo favourite in this race and Art Mauresque 9/2 can do the same today. Hard to assess the form but the prize money is an indication.

1.00 Punchestown – Difficult to avoid wandering towards Champagne Fever 8/13. Ignore Punchestown Festival as had a hard race at Chelts and can win on chase debut. Has the class.

1.15 Chelts – Tough. On paper Bobs Ford close to AFC, but actually he was thumped and similar story for African Gold. I’ll go for Shutthfrontdoor 11/4 who I’ve backed a few times and also ran a blinder at the festival and the time of that race was about 40secs quicker although ground was much softer for AG.

1.50 Chelts – Not convinced Goulnes is well handicapped. I never seem to get Pipe horses right. Rather annoying. Bradley 8/1 reopposes with Tour Des Champs with 2lb less and the extra distance will suit the former. The only other one who worries me might be Burton Port as lets not forget he was second in the Henessey Gold Cup on only 1lb lower couple years back. If Bradley does win then then form is good and I expect Tour Des Champs to follow home. The forecast pays 40/1 both ways.

2.30 Chelts – A number of AP bets already which is daft, but too late to change! Ballynagour 12/1 (one of the festival banker flops, but potentially still well in and might be better for rest), John’s Spirit 12/1(Easy C&D winner last time) and Colour Squadron 12/1 (had so much potential but had a poor rest of season, but as a result is on a low mark). Everyone is banging on about Chamption Court and I can’t back another now at the top of the market can I? Argh. The only other one I think is a mental price using John’s Spirit as a marker is Woolcombe Folly 40/1. Would have been much closer the JS is didn’t blunder close to home and not meets JS 10lb better off.

3.00 Chelts – Sliver Eagles form was franked by Thomas Crapper but this a Listed race. Impossible for me to know how well handicapped Southfield Theatre is, but trust in Segal. Salubrious romped the Martin Pipe at  the festival but Nicholls reckons will struggle at top weight. If Recession Proof 16/1 stays the trip he could be very very well handicapped and Cross Kennon 16/1 will no doubt have been primed for another crack in this. His prep this year was much better than his prep last year!

Away from the jumps a double on Hoodna 5/1 (3.10 Lingfield) and Nice Life Evs (7.50 Wolves)

Bets 15/11/2013

Nice – on a roll again. 3/3, although following the RP tips is bringing me back down. I was not expecting Segal to have a couple of bets today so I missed his prices already but he has picked:

1.35 Chelts – Anay Turge 12/1

2.40 Chelts – Whisper 10/1

My punts...

Chelts 1.05 – Be mad not to stick with Standing Ovation 6/4. Bolted up against a decent field so clearly still ahead of handicapper. Guess I’d worry that it is Chelts though

Chelts 1.35 – Be mad not to back Renard 6/1 at this weight, in this class over this distance on this track. I can see why Segal has backed Anay Turge as he is 8lb better off with Eastlake who must also have a chance in this but can’t assess the form

Chelts 2.05 – Taquin Du Seuil has to give 5 pounds to a an Aintree Hurdle winner and one of the boys Oscar Whiskey 4/6. We know there are no problems at Chelts and goes well fresh.

Chelts 2.40 – Top Gamble 7/2 is being hyped up. Walked his hurdles debut. Using some formlines Decimus is interesting, but will stick to Top Gamble. Once again can see why Segal has picked Whisper. Hendo reckons this horse is closely match to Oscar Whiskey. Quite frankly though this is a tough race and I’m like many are hoping for an aptly names winner!

Chelts 3.15 – Diamond Harry in a cross country? Surely not. Chicago no form at Chelts. There should only be 2 in this. Uncle Junior who has won this race twice and runs very well fresh and Balthazar King who was thumped by 11 lengths in this last year. Honestly don’t know which way to turn as BZ in in blinding form but UJ always does well in this race. UJ/BZ fc pays 18/1 and 12/1 vice versa!

Bets 14/11/2013

Jumps are hotting up, but am still just in first gear until it really kicks off:

2.25 Clonmel – Arvika Ligeonniere 10/11 wins at the weights

Racingpost Tips:

1.40 Taunton – Don Pooleoni

2.50 Southwell – Mataajir

3.20 Southwell – Monsieur Jamie

3.25 Clonmel – A Fine Young Man

Also worth noting handicap hurdles at taunton produce a very very good profit as do Nicholls Runners at Taunton and Henderson runners at Ludlow

Bets 13/11/2013

A few punts:

2.10 Exeter – Smad Place into an Acc

1.30 Lingfield – Sir Robert Cheval

RP Tips:

2.50 Bangor – Bourne

3.10 Exeter – Horizontal Speed

Desai Jnr tips:

Bourne, Joanne One, Valdez

Bets 09/11/2013

This is one of the worst weekends of racing in the year(in my opinion) as we have the flat finale.

Tom Pricewise Segal has plumped for four picks today:

Donny 2.25 – Mass Rally 12/1

Wincanton 2.40 – De La Bach 10/1

Donny 3.35 – Rhombus 12/1, Forgotten Hero 16/1

Half stakes today:

Donny 12.05 – Resolute 2/1 has well last time out enough to suggest can win a contest like this.

Donny 12.40 – Penny Drops 4/7 can bag a Double Donny maiden for Haggas

Donny 1.15 – Donny Rover 14/1 might just be a couple pounds ahead the handicapper based on last run. He ran pretty in penultimate race here too when looked a bit unlucky.

Donny 1.50 – A number of solid C&D winners. Tariflette 12/1 loves to win at beginning and end of season, Lilac Lace 20/1 bolted up last time in similar conditions and Favourite Treat 8/1 is most unexposed

Donny 2.25 – Eton Rifles 11/2 will be all the better for run last time. Big chance

Donny 3.00 – Cocktail Queen 8/1 will love the ground and will run above mark. Agent Allison 20/1 will love the ground so interesting one.

Donny 3.35 – Highland Castle 14/1 has good current form and also over C&D and Swnymor 25/1 still looks on a decent flat mark.

Sandown 1.20 – Grandeout 4/9 has had Yogi working his jumping and was far better than Hinterland over hurdles.

Sandown 1.55 – Ought to be a formality for Kentucky Hyden 4/9 dropping down from Listed class

Sandown 2.30 – Kapga De Cerisy 4/1  has decent C&D form and also October is Williams month

Will have to be some form of Nicholls Wincanton acc here today too, but otherwise also:

Wincanton 2.05 – Everything say back Far West but am drawn to Cotton Mill 4/1 (probably because of the MTOY handicap form)

Wincanton 2.40 – Poungach 13/2 looks above his mark, but this competitive…

Naas 12.50 – I think this is mad, but Art of Payroll 8/1 beat Easter Hunt who is apaz a decent sort.

Bets 08/11/2013

Meydan did not go the way I was hoping but a 5/1 winner was enough to stop a massacre.

There’s some interest in a John Ferguson clean sweep today: Purple Bay, Curzon Line, Population, Paddy Mulligan and Ronnie Lawson!

Mussel’b 12.30 – Purple Bay 4/11 ought to win

Mussel’b 2.35 – Population 9/4 has some very good form for the level (God’s Own, La Reve both won and of course The New One and MTOY) and on a workable mark based on the former pair.

Southwell 3.45 – Ferguson may well land a five timer. Imagine McCoy’s ride Forthefunofit 7/4 will be backed too but Mr Gollings always has a couple of decent soft ground performers and Powerstown Dreams 12/1 might be interesting?

Bets 07/11/2013

Only 3/10 winners yesterday but one was an 8/1 so got out of jail.

Lingfield 1.20 – Proper Desai Jnr betting here. Trainer is on a hot streak. Be A Rebel 80/1 on Betfair.

Thurles 1.25 – Real Dubh 11/8 really ought to take advantage of the weights here.

MEYDAN IS BACK!! It will be hard for a few weeks as horses are coming back from a break but I don’t want to fall behind Meydan form….

Meydan 2.30 – Tarwabi 5/6 should have class to win

Meydan 3.05 – Take a chance with Ouzinkie 20/1 who is technically 17lb lower (with claimer) than in similar race last year

Meydan 3.40 – Innocuous 9/2 and Desert of Dreams 9/2 have chances on best form

Meydan 4.15 – Got four on my shortlist. Alnashmy and Kaiss meet again and at the weights and prices have to side with Alnashmy 20/1. I really can’t decide between Busker 4/1 and Jawhar 6/1 though. The latter because drops back in trip and class and the former still looks like has improvement in him

Meydan 4.50 – The market is right with this. Trying to decipher between Ukrainian, Moonlight Cloud and Interpret. At the weights you’d hope Ukrainian beats Moonlight Cloud this time. Although it’s a different surface Ukrainian beat Interpret so would go with Ukrainian 5/1

Meydan 5.25 – Again four on the shortlist (Karma Chameleon, Graymalkin, Mutayaser, Earth Tour). Earth Tour 16/1 is the bigger price and just don’t know how well handicapped he is. A few nuggets suggests he is. Karma 3/1 has no excuse not to be up there.

Bets 06/11/2013

Backing top class horses shouldering stones to class horses is not a good idea. I know that, but I still went against myself. Good thing was I knew Somersby’s weights was tempting and Manyriverstocross just prevailed.

I’m going all out today with lower stakes so can start remembering all the tricks of the trade with jumps:

Chepstow 1.10 – Wing Mira 8/1 of interest as stable in top nick, but the best form has to be Dazinski 4/1. That Worcester form is full of winners. Has run well on soft before.

Warwick 1.20 – I questioned Forest Walker’s Evs credentials last time and he bolted up. Still ahead of mark on that race

Chepstow 1.40 – Regal Diamond Evs – Bowen loves him. Bumper form pretty decent

Notts 2.00 – Shimba Hills 8/1 has found a good opportunity to take advantage of experience and conditions to suit

Chepstow 2.10 – Un Bon P’Tit Gars has decent hurdling form – better than most in line up. Ran very well first time out last year. Guess the worry is ran badly on debut here on soft ground

Warwick 2.20 – Balder Success 4/7

Chepstow 2.40 – Minellahalfcentury 3/1 looks ahead of his mark

               

Chepstow 3.15 – Brave Buck 6/4 looks ahead of his mark

Chepstow 3.50 – Peut Etre Sivola 5/1 worth chancing. If bounces back to form is on a mark has won a C3 with.

Chepstow 4.20 – Old Magic 11/2 to repeat last year’s win

Bets 05/11/2013

Exeter 1.50 – Sea Wall ran a pretty decent race before being hampered last time out. 12/1 is a touch big purely on Nicholls record here. McCoy will be backed all day in all of his races and Flemenson (imagine related to Flemenstar) and Champagne West (imagine related to Champagne Fever) are probably worthily towards top of market.

Exeter 2.20 – Incredible that Nicholls and Hobbs have won the last 9/10 runnings of this. Nicholls reckons Doctor Harper is the one to beat, but the market says it’s Broomfield. The fav has won this 10/11 times too so will follow the market and Nicholls.

Exeter 2.50 – Kumbeshwar is running from outside the handicap and the only one I’d rule out without a concern. We saw Grands Crus struggle to concede weight yesterday, but Cue Card 11/10 could have conceded two dozen pounds last year and still won. Somersby has been dropped 6 pounds which I think is a bit mental but is better right handed so just about rule him out. Not seen enough from Fago to back him at this level and might want to protect mark for PP GC. Module looks decent but so does Williams Wishes. Tom Segal has tipped him up at 5/1 today, but I going to stick with Cue Card. He has to be the one to beat even with this massive amount of weight

Maisons – Laffitte 2.55 – Catcall Evs

Exeter 3.20 – Purely through formlines of the betfair hurdle Dark Lover wins this. But now we are over fences and Balder Success rated 145 would have beaten Dark Lover. At the weights therefore Claret Cloak beats Dark Lover. I also think Manyriverstocross 4/1 was a better hurdler than Claret Cloak and with the 5lb reckon worth at chance

Bets 04/11/2013

When Segal lands a 1-2 in a competivite 17 runner race you just have to shout oldboy. What a hero. If only I woke up and took the 14/1 on offer and backed the forecast :)

I think a few people will be tapping this today:

2.40 Kempton - Grand Crus 9/4. Back to hurdles in a handicap. Hmm. I thought this might be a red herring, but he was spanking handicaps over hurdles, albeit a dozen lbs less. When he beat Silvi C over fences at Kempton so many dreamt of bigger things...Either way if back to form, goes at Kemptom. still competitive at this weight in this class.

3.10 Kempton - Hadrians Approach 13/8 at the weights ought to win

Melbourne Cup - Segal has gone Royal Empire 20/1. I've got Mount Athos 16/1 and Verema 20/1 AP.

Bets 03/11/2013

Yesterday was good but Long Run really burnt me. I have to stop backing him. I’m also disgusted that I didn’t back Reve De Sivola 36/1. Was on my tracker and I was too bloody hungover to remember to check it. Stupid boy. For the record Grand Crus, Cue Card and Grandeout all have current entries for midweek!!!

Leopardstown 12.55 – I’ve backed Streetcar to Stars 100/1 for the Derby so keen to see how he gets on today.

Huntingdon 1.15 – Smad Place 4/9 wins easily of translates form to fences

Carlisle 2.40 – Tap Night 11/8 wins at the weights if fit for first appearance

Cork 2.50 – Felix Yonger 4/5 has some very good form in the book

Cork 3.25 – Tom Pricewise Segal has picked two in this. Swordfish and Unoccupied both 10/1

Bets 02/11/2013

Wow. Woken up with one of those don’t bet hangovers, but I’ll try.

Pricewise has gone for:

Ascot 2.45 – Dildar

Ascot 3.20 – Merry King, Theres No Panic

Wetherby 3.35 – Cape Tribulation

My punts:

Ascot 2.45 – Gibb River 10/1

Ascot 3.20 – Opening Batsman 9/1

Wetherby 1.50 – If the BHA are right at the weights Cockney Sparrow 3/1 wins

Wetherby 3.00 – Tidal Bay 2/1

Wetherby 3.35 – My boy Long Run 6/5

Down Royal 3.05 – Rolling Aces 13/8

Newmarket 2.55 – Nabucco 11/10

Breeders Cup Turf – The Fugue 2/1

Bets 01/11/2013

Last two days have not been good. Only small stakes lost yesterday. Need some pennies for Breeders tonight! New month, new luck?

Wetherby 12.40 – Oscar Rock 8/15 thumped a horse I lost a lot on in Vago Collonges. A lot of hype for this on

Newmarket 1.30 – Squire Obsaldeston 2/1 is tempting on this mark. It may be he is better on AW but looking at the form of that Newbury race back in April this mark looks lenient

Saint Cloud 1.50 – Ectot looks smart 10/11

Newmarket 2.00 – A lot to like about Expect 5/1. The soft form with Al Thakira is solid

Uttoexter 2.20 – Depends who takes best to fences, but Raya Star Evs was the best hurdler, so fingers crossed

Down Royal 2.35 – JEZKI 4/9. BANKING BANKER. Even at the weights is 10lb odd clear.

Wetherby 2.45 – Pipe likes Ainsi Fideles 2/1. Just hope Scudamore don’t get stuck in traffic from Uttoxeter!

Newmarket 3.05 – Tweed 10/3 didn’t look green on debut and if possesses ability of Harris, bosh.

Down Royal 3.10 – Rye Martini 15/8 destroyed some very good horses last time out and if takes to fences has to be the one to beat

Uttoexter 3.30 – Marie Des Anges 15/8 was one I followed last year. Can’t work out why Forest Walker is being backed ahead of him. Will soon find out!