Bets 31/07/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 2

I went a bit OTT yesterday and ended up backing 30 horses. But 4 were winners at 20/1, 20/1, 12/1, 9/2 and 10/1, 25/1, 8/1, 8/1, 7/1, 7/1, 16/1 shots placed too. Good day I say. Shame I still managed to lose £200 on accumulators. Nothing came in.

Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for a few more today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Sohar 16/1

Galway 5.30 – Romanesco 12/1, Muirhead 33/1

This was the day last year I landed 5 races at Goodwood (http://banjaydesai.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/bets-01082012-glorious-goodwood-day-2.html) Segal and I landed Hurricane Higgins at 33/1, Segal landed Sir Graham Wade 14/1 and I landed My Queenie 16/1. I made £8,000. How I could do with a bit of the same today.

Goodwood 1.55 – Feck. Erm. High Office 33/1 looks a daft price. Goes with cut in the ground and was 10 lengths behind horses like Ile De Re and Tominator in decent races. Is now 10lb lower and has been running okay. I guess the price is big because hasn’t raced beyond 2m and not proven on this track. But he def stays on and is def worth a chance. Seaside Sizzler 12/1 is def a better horse with visor on and is in shite hot form. Only a bit higher when 2^nd in this race before. I backed Bayond last year and placed, but think might be beyond him today. Lieutneant Millar and Borxborne def have the best chances at the weights in this but I don’t like their draw or price. Johnston’s Good Morning Star probably worth a fiver

Goodwood 2.30 – This is perhaps not as straightforward as it initially looks. I was going to be all over Cap O’Rushes, but then two things happened. One I think was flattered in Irish Derby as was a pacesetter and two have seen Excess Knowledge 7/4 getting cut by a few bookies for the St Leger. Has been hammered in today too. I’m going to be a mug and follow the money.

Goodwood 3.05 – This is a race for 3yr olds so I rule DOW out. Backing against Hannon/Hughes at Goodwood is brave especially as looked so unlucky last time out. However let’s be clear, Dawn Approach 6/5 is the best miler in the world. Simple and class must prevail on these slightly cutting conditions. I just can’t help this nagging feeling that Hughes might win the race, not the horses, Hughes and he calls this his banker of the meeting!!! I’m sticking with DA and perhaps tickling the trifecta – DA/TOR, DOW.

Goodwood 3.40 – Ertijaal looked mighty impressive in his second race and Toormore 7/4 a huge looking horse beat Erti on debut. I fully expect a win here with Hughes. Also Hannon/Hughes have won this with favs last 3 years in a row

Goodwood 4.15 – On pedigree, trainer form and trainer success with first time out 2yr olds – Stars Above Me 16/1. Shouldn’t bet, but it’s Goodwood after all J I seemingly had my head screwed on last year and did not bet in this race.

Goodwood 4.50 – I think Close At Hand 13/2 will laugh at the handicapper on a mark on 76. Firstly look at how highly some the horses in that maiden are rated. Secondly look at the race against Saucy Minx. She flew home, but when level with a few other horses pulled back. Headgear will fix that and did in last race when walked home and Saucy Minx is 7lb higher than Close At Hand today, so tables have to be turned. If Steer By The Stars wins, Johnston better be freaking investigated. Clearly I’m having a fiver on it though. Ribbons has to be respected, but think draw and weight hopefully against her. I hope Jabhaat didn’t run one false race and I think I’d be mad not to have a nibble on Great Timing 4/1

Goodwood 5.25 – Freakaleek – Erm Johannes is tempting on mark and last race. He has won twice at this festival too but surely the old boy can’t pull this off on slower than ideal ground. Askaud in good form and decent over C&D but think 6lb hike just too far above a winnable mark. Espirit De Midas is being smashed in the betting but that is surely because Ivory’s last 4 horses have won. Not convinced the track suits him. Brave Echo might find this hard from that draw as likes to front run so will be tough and think Good Authority probably still better treated. Same for Tidentime. Right 4 left to get through. Hughes is going to pull off some magic with Magic City from this draw and 6/1 is short, but Hughes can navigate round Goodwood so does have a chance. I can’t get my head round Spirit of Sharjah. With such a big crowd is it worth being held up to try and navigate through traffic. I think is a better handicapped horse that My Kingdom but My Kingdom races prominently and has a low draw so traffic less of a problem. Argh. Okay so, I think Good Authority 10/1, My Kingdom 11/1, Spirit of Shar 20/1 and Magic City 6/1 all have chances. I don’t have any more time to mull this over.

Leicester 8.10 – It’s in my tracker Clubland 7/2

Bets 30/07/2013 - Glorious Goodwood Day 1

Sod the stats game again! That cost me 4 bets. But a cheeky Weld double and two decent e/w punts on Admiral Barry 33/1 and Top othe Ra 20/1 was just want I needed before the start of Goodwood! Tom Pricewise Segal has picked out 4 today:

Goodwood 1.55 – Clon Brulee 10/1

Goodwood 3.40 – Sir Graham Wade 12/1

Galway 6.45 – Brendan Brackan 20/1, Swiflty Done, 20/1

I’m blindly putting a fiver on all Johnston horses and an accumulator and same with Hannon & Hughes J

Goodwood 1.55 – Blue Surf 7/1 is a C&D winner loves deep ground, but is versatile and form over 10f is sound, but perhaps too high in the weights? I’ve gone through the card and either soft ground rules them out or I just don’t think they can hack it at this level. However one horse who I backed last time and think will like the step down in trip and has run well on soft is Tepmokea 25/1. I think he is too big, although to overcome the draw will need to be dropped behind and then driven through field which is def not style. But on basis gets 12f on soft means a few extra yards may not be out of the question. Fast or Free will have to be mega fit for first race of campaign on testing ground.

Goodwood 2.30 – This is tough. I think the ground is going to be mega testing for these kids and so those rested might have an advantage? Problem in Anticapted who is following a similar path to Zebedee has soft ground in blood from Whipper, but then again Supplicant who beat him last time out is far fresher and Kyllachy kids handle soft too. Hughesy rides for Hannon have always finished ahead of any others jockeys for Hannon in this race, but with conditions like this surely will come too soon for Anticapted, even though clearly Hughes dropped him away when now chance with winner. Therefore I elect Supplicant 10/3 who wins on form along and a punt on Brown Sugar 14/1 who just didn’t settle last time. Looked very quick on the bridle in penultimate race and pedigree suggests ground will be fine.

Goodwood 3.05 – I doubt Aljamaaheer will run and with a penalty would surely have been tough anyway. Will producer handle the going? Flopped when was heavy once and no idea when writing this how soft it will get, but Dutch Art pedigree should me does. However Hughes is dead keen on this so must be of interest. I think I’m going to regret taking him on but I have to with Garswood 9/2. Fahey thinks a lot of this horse and is in tremendous form. 3yr olds have a decent record in this with their allowance and we know the horse goes on soft/heavy ground. Professor and Casper Netscher are still on my short list and can’t find any reason to remove them

Goodwood 3.40 –This is very tough, but first and foremost Suraj 25/1 is the one that straight away looks wrongly priced.. 14f perfect, ground no problem, down in weights, Queally onboard. Montaser really peeved me off last time but also ground wrong for him today. I think Guarantee 12/1 has a better chance than SGW based on previous races.

If I get a chance will hit rest of Goodwood and Galway..

4.30pm update..harder still

Goodwood 4.50 – I’m torn between Jack’s Revenge, Democretes, Uppercut (winner I picked last year), and Juvenal. The first two are on my watch list, both handicapped well enough. Two of these are Hannon gees.

Goodwood 5.25 – I’ve been waiting to back Tioman Legend for a while. Now is the time in first time blinkers back in trip. But this is really open and can’t choose between Cruise To The Limit, Valima, Fair Value and Waseem Faris

Galway 6.10 – Tarfasha only if another short price for an acc

Galway 6.45 – With Segal on this. Swiftly Done.

Galway 7.15 – Pirate Cove  but only in a double with Tarfasha

Bets 29/07/2013

So clearly going of course and letting loose was a ridiculous thing to do. Tom Pricewise Segal has tipped up two today for the Galway. I had no idea he was putting some up today so missed the prices. Bugger.

Galway 6.45 – Call Me Bubbles 8/1, Rossvoss 16/1

Purely based on trainer form, record in types of races:

Wolves 3.15 – Pure Mischief 10/3

Wolves 5.15 – Hi Filwah Evs

Windsor 6.00 – Meeting Waters 7/2

Right now back to reality and time for the Blind backing Dermot Weld show!:

Galway 5.10 – Diplomat 8/11. Weld/Walsh. Too short to back as single, but in the Weld Acc

Galway 6.10 – Mustajeeb Evs. Weld/Mullins

Galway 6.45 – Notable Graduate 15/2. Weld. Segal has tipped two up in this (Call Me Bubbles 8/1 – can see why, Rossvoss 16/1 - has some solid form behind Justification and 2miles looks ideal. Has won here before and low draw decent) so I’ll go for two too J Cry For The Moon 12/1 is 1lb lower than when 2^nd in this last year. Frick there are loads who could win this. Redera 14/1 if takes to Galway looks a few pounds ahead of handicapper with claimer onboard. Money for Gretzky 33/1 but not sure why? Admiral Barry 33/1 looks a crazy price to me. Has won this before technically of the same mark when negate claimers and the last race, ground would have been too quick. I’m surprised Marchese Marconi is also 16/1. Form behind Well Sharp and miles ahead of Justification in race. Knockcroghery doesn’t look out of it. Bloody hell. What to go with?

Well I like both Segal’s picks and think I’ll have to go for Cry For The Moon 12/1 and Admiral Barry 33/1. Guess have to back the Weld horse

Galway 7.15 – Weld has a poor record in this, so ignoring his horse. Doc Holliday 6/1 looks like he is on a joke of a mark after a long absence but not sure about the ground and if it is a problem I think Rock on Coco 12/1 looks like has conditions set up perfectly especially from low draw.

Galway 7.45 – Weld’s horse is Pay Day Kitten 2/1

Galway 8.15 – Weld’s horse is Martys Magic 7/4 but I would back Top Othe Ra 20/1. I’d be really excited about this if Mullins was in good form, but he’s not

Bets 28/07/2013

After Sirius Prospect came home was hoping for big day. Ha. Totally out of shape so I'm letting loose today on races would never normally bet on and in an alien manner. Need some freedom and no expectations.

Pontefract 2.20 – Let’s open a risky offshore fund 33/1. Wasn’t thumped by Ambiance on debut and rider unbalanced in next race. Notes say was a lot of money on debut for horse so perhaps interesting.

Ascot 2.30 – Etaad 9/2 is only one with pattern entry and Hills won with last 3 horses

Deauville 2.40 – Segal has tipped Chigun 9/1 but surely this is belongs to Elusive Kate 3/1 or Duntle 5/1?

Ascot 3.05 – Nave 7/1 might just step up to the plate today to complete hatrick. Tough ask but chance handicapper not caught up. Hopefully Saytara needs run back

Pontefract 4.05 – Arsaadi 6/1 defeat to Galician when giving 6lb doesn’t looks so bad now. Again tough ask but chance

Ascot 4.15 – Haylaman 7/1 back to 10f and in class – right choice. For some bizarre reason Jonno 14/1 with tongue strap is calling me, but really don’t know why

Ascot 5.20 – Segal has tipped up Steps 16/1 I’m going to wean myself of these big handicap races especially when there are 4 or 5 I fancy. Alhtough I landed Masamah couple weeks ago I lost 4 others in that race and plenty more since. Galician must be one of the most frustrating horses for me. Backd 3 times to no avila and yet has won two huge pots and huge prices. Lord of The Dance is another, but at least got one good 16/1 win out of him. Shame missed the other 16/1 and 25/1! The reason I’m saying this is because I was really chuffed to land Another Wise Kid 25/1 and think should stick by side whilst in good heart. The other will stick with is Ahtoug 12/1. Lightly raced this season, decent enough C&D form too.

Bets 27/07/2013

Only one real winner yesterday! Picture Dealer/Mon Brav forecast 32/1. Kinda saved me from more despair as this comment “I’ll be peaved if Johnston pulls this one off” about Broxbourne did and then Best Be Careful came a close 3rd @ 16/1. A further handful of second places. Just pure frustration. To Mr. Anonymous, glad you are doing well! Let me know when we agree and I’ll double in too!

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has tipped up four today:

Ascot 2.40 – Intrigo 10/1
Ascot 3.15 – Loving Spirit 16/1, Hefner 50/1
York 3.30 – Baccarat 12/1


Right, wary of rain and my form so stakes lowered for today:

York 1.50 – I’m going to learn a bit about how individual horses fair with top weight on Maven 8/1. Handicapped well enough to go close but let’s see how goes with 10stone to shoulder

York 2.20 – If Smarty Socks could hear me he’d be livid with me, but the last few times I’ve backed him he has done me proud but at around 8/1. But, today at the prices I have to be with Sirius Prospect. Back to handicapping, has been running to his mark and he’s won here at the level on a similar mark so 8/1 is decent

Ascot 2.40 – There is a lot of hype about Cape Peron 9/2. Even Segal thinks he is the one to beat today, quoting “probably Group class”. I had a few too many beers last night and instead of putting £30, I accidently added an extra 0 to it. Oh dear. Oh dear indeed. I hope the race really does arrive!

Newmarket 2.45 – Can’t quite land a decent SBS bet yet, but must have a decent chance with Al Saham 7/2. Wouldn’t want too much rain as might open door for others.

York 2.55 – When I suggested back Sri Putra last year in this race I was uber chuffed. Varian had entered a pacemaker that day, but today me knows Mukhadram will do that for him. I’m not in anyway suggesting Mukhadram will lose this, but in the betting without or the forecast I suggest Sri Putra again. Headgear all back on. Be interesting to see how Apache gets on here at York and another one I would not think of easily writing off.

Newcastle 3.05 – Frog Hollow 7/2 can follow up under penalty.

Ascot 3.15 – Jeez. 3yr olds seem to struggle in this. Segal has clearly been reading Pyman’s Thoeries about claimers! Hmm one high in Santefisio 28/1 and one low Lightening Cloud 12/1

York 3.30 – Double Jeez. Gramery 20/1 slightly lower than when 2nd in this race last year. Khubala 7/1 should not be too far away

Ascot 3.50 – Lots of chat about Hillstar. Who can doubt Stoute. If it goes genuinely soft then you’d be nervous about Novellist. Ektihaam is clearly a decent horse, but you cannot get away from Cirrus Des Aigles 6/4.

Newmarket 3.55 – I have a few of these on my tracker, but not sure what the maximum weight you can put a horse up by is, but I would have put Secondo 4/1 up by a good 15lb minimum. What do I know though. Just hope if he needs to can find something off the bridle. Looks class above

2.00pm update...Couple non runners including Cape Peron (phew, or not?), so adding EsQueLove and Feyhadi into the mix

Bets 26/07/2013

Thought would be a strong day après Debdebdeb won, but it was not to be. No more lumping for me. Two ton lost on Sadiq and another ton in accs. Have to say I’m annoyed I didn’t back Majeyda – the Fig Roll form was the best by far! On that note however it stacked up Mars would find either Casey or Scins too hot to handle, so was a decent lay. Someone needs to hit me with a stick to form stick every morning.

Ascot 3.10 – The best horse here, and IMO best handicapped, is Highland Castle but 10 stone is a lot to shoulder. I’ll be peaved if Johnston pulls this one off. This could get tactical if there is not a strong pace and I don’t know who it will suit. However watching Homeric 11/4 run wide round outside of big field over C&D at a quick looking pace means I’m just shading him over Mysterious Man, but the problem is MM is Balding and has solid form with Sun Central. Argh.

Ascot 3.45 – The 3yr old allowance is about a 2 length headstart. That puts Ultrasonic who is top rated represented by Stoute who romps this race and the Producer form is best on show, neck and neck with Auction. Ignore Auction’s last race. Was hampered all over the shot; just Frankie’s luck at the moment. This then in my mind rules out Annecdote who is 4lb worse off with Auction. But, then you hit a problem because Light Up My Life in first time cheekpieces ran 8lb higher in that handicap and finished 4 lengths behind which from a handicap perspective suggests will finish deadheat with Auction today, but still think Auction has the edge. Am praying Dark Orchid doesn’t produce her best 2yr old form else could beat this field in first time headgear. However, the value today has to lie with Falls of Lora. 1mile good is def the right trip. Problem is I can’t work out whether I back Ultasonic 2/1, Auction 4/1 or Falls of Lora 8/1

Thirsk 3.55 – Dusky Queen’s 6/1 had form franked by Sheastar yesterday although I was on Elle Woods annoyingly

Ascot 4.20 – I know I will kick myself for betting in a 4 horse race, but I reckon Senn’ Star Evs can dictate this from the front. Johnston won this last yr with a 3yr old too.

Ascot 4.50 – Shortlisted on too many so may not bet. Best Be Careful won this last year of a much higher mark, but form looks bit off, but surely 16/1 is a tad big??? Gladiatrix and Rowe Park bring the best form to the table, and Irish Boy has a smidgen of a chance with no rise for latest win

York 6.30 – Picture Dealer 11/4, as long as has room will get a quick pace and looks to have another 6lb in hand (at least IMO). Short price for a big handicap so you would have to punt with Mon Brav 9/1. Likes the course and def has a win in him off this mark based on last run over C&D

Newmarket 7.10 – Ever Present 3/1 got done by Xinbama who landed me a decent forecast last time out. Sir Mike might be the forecast with Ever Present today.

York 7.30 – Ordinarily I’d be all over Albasharah and I will be, but not like a rash. Lady’s First as far as I’m concerned has the best form in book and we know goes here at York and there’s no way you can easily write off most of the others

Newmarket 8.10 – Foolish not to stick to a Johnston horse? Sadler’s Risk might well take this from the front, but the boy Jame Doyle can storm home on Villoresi 2/1. Hayley just left it too late twice on him before. I’m just feeling a saver on Sadler. Maybe needed run last time and drop in trip needed? Came 4^th in Chester Vase couple years ago when was rated much higher!

York 8.30 - I haven’t backed a long shot in a while so here it is. Mayfield Girl 20/1. I know she was getting a 3 yr old allowance in last race over C&D but look at some of the horses that have come out and won in that race in a similar class today. Handling the track at York is a big deal. Shrimper Roo 14/1 looks tempting for similar reasons over C&D.

Bets 25/07/2013

Am struggling. 8 race losing streak.

Sandown 2.30 – The Great Hall formline was let down my Hold Me Tight the other day, but Fledged revived the form Hawk High has won and now it’s the turn of DebDebDeb 11/4. Balding has won this race twice recently so knows what it takes.

Sandown 3.40 – Ducab in on the tracker but I can’t find a reason to think is well handicapped. On the other hand Sadiq walked home last time and due to go up another 2lb looks well in. I’m going to have one last lump job before I return to level stakes. If this comes in then I’ll continue.

Doncaster 7.15 – Sylvia Pankhurst 3/1 can squeeze one more out. Was well on top at the end of her last race.

Leops 7.20 – I’ve been a fan for Mars for a long time and this look ideal for him down in class, but there are 3 older horses who have a decent chance, so @4/7 Mars might be worth laying

Lunchtime update.. SBS is in such good form and the last few winners (Sandown 3.05) of this have put up mighty solid efforts in Kempton maidens. The way Feedyah 7/1 won her maiden was class, so worth a bet even if just to watch the race, although have Lamar on the tracker

Bets 24/07/2013

Argh another 2nd placed 7/1 yesterday. The weight def got to Burning Thread and True Pleasure was just a bad pick.

Catterick 4.00 – I was so gutted about Angelito 2/1 last time out. Was defo the likely winner until saddle slipped. Lost in Paris clearly loves it here and goes from average to top trump on this course but I keep faith in Angelito.

Sandown 8.05 – Front Running Estifzaaz 9/2 may well just hold on. I can see Consign and Related chasing him home. Might be a better back to lay?

Leicester 8.20 – The top 4 in the market look right to me, but I just have a feeling am going to pick the wrong one. Skytrain 7/2 foiled my last runner and I either get Johnston horses totally right or totally wrong. The latter far more often. Fanning ought to be able to dictate from front today, but if Tawtheeq 6/1 bounces back to form at Newbury he ought to make a mockery of the 78 mark. Plover has done that form no harm.

Sandown 8.40 – Would not be surprised to see Porcini win this, but the problem is that McBride’s last 3 runners have finished last in their respective races. English Summer will appreciate step up in trip, but I’m going to take a chance with Spice Fair 6/1. Likes Sandown and at the weights can reverse placings with Porcini from 23/05

Bets 23/07/2013

Gutted about Nenge Mboko cruising passed Jontleman yesterday. NM won a seller by 3 lengths last time but his handicap form didnt stack up from 3 races ago, but clearly was very well handicapped and one to keep on side for next race. Perhaps I need to consider form of last race irrelevant if not a handicap. Urgh, Hold on Tight was just a let down.

Musselburgh 2.00 – True Pleasure 5/2 looks like can overcome a penalty

Musselburgh 4.00 – Lots of these raced over C&D last month and the one to take from it is Findog 7/1, however Burning Thread 11/4 is flying right now and despite going up 11lb without his claimer, surely must be the pick as has won over C&D in C2H on a mark of 94 (easily) only 83 today but a lot of weight to shoulder. 

Bets 22/07/2013

Windsor 7.50 – Handicap debutant Realize is tempting, but Noble Deed doesn’t help that form stack up in handicaps on this mark. Clearly I’m discounting improvement but the one I want to be with is Jontleman 6/1. He should have won his last race. Was absolutely cruising when badly hampered and if you use Syvlia Parkhurst as a benchmark then Jontleman walks over Red Explorer who is half the price. Watch Jontlemans last race and you will see…

Windsor 8.50 - Hold on Tight 3/1 has some seriously strong form with Great Hall who hacked up in a c2 handicap of 88. This form all ties back to Telescope and Hold on Tight previously had an Oaks entry. Beckett "really likes this filly. She needs time to blossom, mark my words, she will.."

Worth a double 28/1

Bets 20/07/2013

How I did not break the bookies yesterday I do not know. Actually I do, Trader Jack and Thunder Strike.

I lost a half bet on Martinas Delight, Trader Jack, a placed bet on Six Wives, a few accs with Thunder Strike and a couple in the big Hamilton race, but I landed: Rock Choir 3/1, Sleepy Blue Ocean 9/1, Hawk High 9/4, Special Meaning 11/10, Another Wise Kid 6/1, Rasamam 33/1 placed and Henry The Avaitor 13/8. 7 winners, 9 accs placed and not one paid out. M0th£r fudg£r! Argh. I was proud of Sleepy Blue Ocean as had a bad start too. Shows the power of watching video form. If only I could make this a full time job! And Al's memory came 4th. Winner beat him by shd,shd,shd, so could have been incredible.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped up a handful today:

Market Rasen 3.30 - Bobowen 16/1

Newbury 3.50 - Lexington Rose 14/1

Newbury 3.50 - Alutiq 15/2

Curragh 6.15 - Scintillula 33/1

Racing average today. No video time for me as off to EDC, but here goes anyway:

Newmarket 1.50 - Kinglet 12/1 and Askaud 10/1 will both outrun their price here.

Newbury 2.05 - A blinkered Arsaadi 2/1

Newmarket 2.25 - 3 year allowance is big in this and Waila 2/1 represents the strong Riposte form. First time hood

Newbury 2.40 - Royal Empire 2/1 has the class to win this. Just hope is match fit.

Ripon 3.10 - Mitchum 9/1 and Hakuna Matata 9/1 are in decent form and can both go close. I can see why Oratory is favourite, but too short. The Lion King runer hacked up over C&D and clearly a bonus a handle Ripon

Newbury 3.15 - Kyrpton Factor 2/1 is simply the class horse although hasn't been aimed for this race.

Market Rasen 3.30 - Bowen's race and therefore Dineur 15/2

Newbury 3.50 - Agree with Segal that Lexington Rose 14/1 is the value, but Alutiq 15/2 is most likely winner. Libourne Lass the obvious danger but short. 2yr old races - not for me anymore. I have learned, but will stick with Segal as always.

Newmarket 3.40 - Midnight Flower 10/3 looked very good last time out and most likely, but Tassel 10/1 was held up too far back last time and looks a threat of Barzy does the right thing

Newbury 4.35 - Music Master 4/5

Newmarket 4.50 - Some kind of Tricast lurking with Goldream, Last Sovereign and Doctort Parkes. Can't split them, but Goldream has been on my tracker for a long time now and this looks like the time to pounce at 11/4

Haydock 7.00 - Merchant of Dubai 10/3 still has another race in him on this mark

Bets 19/07/2013

Yesterday was fantastic. Wanting to back two Johnston horses but knowing danger was lurking with Hawdyerwheesht 8/1 and Xinbama 4/1. Yes I put the Johnston horses in a double and two reverse forecasts but the last one came in at 10/1. Bosh. Also Telescope was a dream. Knew the boy was good. Spirit of S (10/3) broke a 8/1, 8/13, 4/1, 10/3 acc. Gutted.

Newbury 2.50 – This goes against how I have been punting last few days, which is daft as am heading back in the right direction, so will only half bet it, but Martinas Delight looks too well handicapped at 16/1 not to be backed and the step up in trip is def a plus. Why is this against what I’ve been doing last few days. Well, Trainer is totally out of sorts and this has been costly on so many races I’ve kept an eye on this week. However, the more that hurts me the more I’ll learn. I also think Rock Choir is on a defiable mark – looks good

Newbury 3.25 – Thunder Strike ought to win this, as nearest rival Survived’s form has taken a couple of knocks. At the same time Thunder Strike’s form at top 2yr old level hasn’t been done massive favours and with a penalty to carry although likely winner, perhaps not worth a single bet.

Haydock 3.50 – 3 or 4 in the mix for this. Imperial Legend out to reverse placings with Red Barron now, but actually using Diman Waters as a marker I thought Sleepy Blue Ocean 9/1 dispatched DW easier than Imperial Legend did and therefore gets my pick. Six Wives is on my tracker and trainer coming into form slowly so might hit the place market 11/10 or hit the reverse forecast again. It’s about 40/1.

Nottingham 4.10 – Was desperately trying to find something that could beat Trader Jack 13/8. Found nothing.

Haydock 4.25 – 3 horse race, not worth betting but Hawk High’s form with Great Hall the stand out.

Pontefract 7.00 – Special Meaning 6/5 ought to win with ease again

Newmarket 7.25 – Justineo 15/8 has the class to win this. None of these win often enough, but using Jwala as a yardstick Justineo beats Stepper Point. Cheek pieces have been applied to the latter but did nothing last time.

Pontefract 7.35 – I see Doctor Parkes and Another Wise Kid fighting this out at the end

Hamilton 7.45 – Tough one to dissect. The top 2 in market Misssippi and Out Do are on paper and form the strongest, but there must be some juicy odds in a race like this!? If this was over 7f I’d be all over Rasaman 33/1, but it’s 6furlongs and Lee has left him. The first one that looks overpriced is Als Memory 20/1, it’s just a shame the stables horses aren’t is good form. He made all to win with just about enough in hand to suggest can do the same again here today. I’d be surprised if Chester Artistocat turend tables on him. Maybe two others are Barnet Fair, but again trainer not doing so well and perhaps a more for the Fahey stranglehold on this race, old boy Johannes 16/1 could roll back the years? Ah gosh Yeeoow too. Feck this is too hard. Give up. Stopping writing….

Pontefract 8.05 – Bloody Henry The Aviator is back. Owes me big time, but not sure will beat Super Cookie

Bets 18/07/2013

Lexington Place bizarrely drifted right out to 11/4 from 13/8. Bolted up and not complaining as made extra bunce with BPG. Bedee got going far too late but couple of extra furlongs will def suit. There are loads of races with 3,4,5 runners today so tread carefully.

Hamilton 4.00 – Pah, really want to back Street Artist, but maybe a cheeky Reverse Forecast with Hawdyerwheesht as looks a danger

Leicester 3.10 – Telescope is back! Lets hope no ill effect. No bet though.

Epsom 7.45 – I’ve started avoiding unknown amataurs now but I’ll give one more try as Spirit of Sharjah 10/3 should win this

Epsom 8.20 – Again I really want to back Love Marmalade, but maybe a Johnston double with Street Artist but also another reverse forecast with XInbama as looks a danger

Bets 17/07/2013

Gutted Red didn't come in on Monday to complete a nice double but if it was that easy....

Catterick 4.10 – Lexington Place 2/1 hopefully not too exhausted from recent runs and has more improvement left

Sandown 7.40 – Beedee 12/1 related to Sea Moon and racing in same colours as Zebedee looks on a decent mark on seasonal debut. It might be those race fit horses fair better, but when you look through the form against Effie B, Snowboarder, Luhaif and assess that his best trip looks to be over 7f on good then 12/1 in a smallish field has to be punted.

Bets 15/07/2013

I'm nearly 3 months behind on P&L. Urgh. Serious admin to do, but needs doing.

Windsor 8.00 - Starlight Symphony 16/1 looks tasty with form behind Auction and Danat AA over too far

Windsor 8.30 - Red Avenger 2/1 - Decent form at a much higher level than the others and Dunlop going well.

Bets 14/07/2013

For some reason yesterday I decided to back nothing each way. So it was great joy to see Masamah win at 14/1. Then it all went down hill. Long Awaited placed at 11/1, Zero Money placed 33/1, Smarty Socks placed 9/1, Es Que Love placed 12/1 and finally Stencive placed 8/1. AAAARGGH!

Not sure if there is any consolation in saying well at least I was looking in the right place, and I then start chasing and lumping. Love Marmalade and the very impressive Flintshire helped me relax, although again no each way and Come On Blue Chip 10/1 placed and another horse in last race at Ascot placed 10/1. Butters.

I'm just following what Segal says today as really nothing exciting going on, but prices are silly low now:

Stratford 3.20 - Solaras Exhibition 13/8
Stratford 4.20 - Town Mouse 11/4

Bets 13/07/2013

Secret Asset 20/1 was my only decent winner yesterday. Al Khan repaid my faith but the rest were terrible. The big bet on Henry failed which was painful. So much racing today. Balcony is set up for sunshine viewing.

Segal has gone mental today and tipped 6 horses:

Ascot 1.55 – Taajub, Barnet Fair

Ascot 2.30 – Afsare

York 2.55 – Educate

Newmarket 3.15 – Es Que Love

Newmarket 3.50 – Sole Power

Today is HARD…and I’m hungover, so not a good combo…

York 1.45 – Nine Realms looks well handicapped but I freaking love Smarty Socks 9/1

Ascot 1.55 – Jesus freaking Christ. This is so hard. Segal has done the right thing here and backed last years first and second so I’m with Barnet Fair 10/1 and Taajub 10/1. The other 4 on the shortlist are Face The Problem, Zero Money, Masamah and Long Awaited. I really can’t split them.

York 2.20 – Montaser 11/4

Ascot 2.30 – Aljamaaheer 5/2 has to win this. Form all point to him. Varian is flying. I’ll be disappointed if doesn’t win

Newmarket 2.40 – Vigour 10/1

York 2.55 – Stencive 7/1 has a tough draw, really tough but I love him

Newmarket 3.15 – Bertiewhittle, Belgian Bill, My Freedom, Highland Colori and Es Que Love all have chances. Can’t pick. Argh today really is tough.

Chester 3.25 – Majestic Myles 2/1

York 3.30 – Kingsgate Choice 7/2

Newmarket 3.50 – Shea Shea Shea Shea Shea 9/2

York 4.40 – Itlaaq 12/1

Newmarket 5.35 – Pether’s Moon 13/8. Hannon says so

Bets 12/07/2013

Universal and Feel Like Dancing the only two winners. Maputo the biggest disappointment for me. I knew the form was good, but thought one was better handicapped and only backed that. Not disastrous, but a few embarrassing flops in the selections. Check out the stats from yesterday. You can’t make this stuff up! Insane!

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped 4 more today:

Newmarket 1.40 – Dream Wild 11/2, Tantshi 10/1

York 2.25 – Body and Soul 13/2

Newmarket 3.15 – Burning Blaze 12/1

There is a SERIOUS amount of decent racing today and tomorrow and am tossing up the option to go to Newmarket or York. I could lose a shed load of cash today. Stakes reduced by 25% except a couple am keen on.

Newmarket 1.40 – Segal has gone for Dream Wild and Tantshi. As someone who only really knows about form and has not got to grips with trainers, pedigrees, etc, I just don’t know how you could back Dream Wild. On handicap form Supernova Heights 20/1 is tasty but last race was pretty disappointing. The stats say Jubliante, Sorella Bella or Dream Wild. Pah. Who knows stupid race to bet on.

York 1.50 – Royal Mezyan 4/6

Newmarket 2.10, 2.40 – Rizeena/Sky Lantern Double. Although it didn’t look like Fire Blaze would stay, she’s bred to stay (Dubawi) and be clear she beat Kiyoshi, Rizeena, One Chance, Limegrove and Autumns Blush on debut. Would feel foolish not backing her e/w @ 18/1 in a 8 horse race with 3 places! Latern has beaten JTJ twice now and she is the real deal. Hopefully Hughes will not get screwed up in tactics.

York 2.25 – Segal has gone Body and Soul seeking value but surely Rosdhu Queen 5/2 is value? If she is scared of anyone then March 6/1 is the one to watch! Solid form behind Mowarij and looks to have a lethal rocket booster and can take advantage of RQ becomes a spoilt princess in the stalls again.

Ascot 3.05 – Wowwee. Ordinarily I’d be all over Caravan Rolls and perhaps I will be in some accs, but surely more value with Suegioo 10/1 and a little Investissement 25/1 who nearly won the Ebor of a mark 9lb higher than now. Same distance today.

Newmarket 3.15 – No Johnston horse to blindly back in this! Gutted! All the tipsters are gunning for Burning Blaze. Maybe we hit a Blaze double today? The formline to hit is probably the Body and Soul one and from the last race there are loads! Clearly I’m going to go for the outsider of them all and hit Ahern 50/1 on betfair and also Robot Boy 12/1 on betfair who is in good nick

York 4.05 – Most exciting race handicap on show today. Old boy Tax Free 12/1 gets vote number one. Decent form and comes alive over C&D. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Demora ahead of Tax Free based on weights but trainer form average and not proven at York. Secret Asset 20/1 is on a very very tempting mark back in handicaps. Also a C&D winner of 1lb lower and pieces on to sharpen up. Ubetterbegood 20/1 and Lady Gibraltar 6/1 lost me faith in the Kinsgate Choice form but back to GF maybe can redeem themselves?

Ascot 4.15 – Al Khan 6/1 nearly landed me a sweet 11/1. Was backed into 11/2 and narrowly missed out. Gets to run off same mark today! Also have Crew Cut 8/1 in my tracker. Imagine due to Yeeoow formline which has somewhat petered out now.

York 4.40 – Maven 9/2 solid form and also over C&D

Ascot 4.50 - Secret Art 5/1 - If Indignant wins first at Newmarket get on it

York 5.10 – Depending on how Robot Boy gets on today tempted by Noble Deed 5/4

Newmarket 5.35 – Henry The Aviator 7/2. This has to be best bet of day. He walked a C3 handicap two races ago and can bounce back from a tactical race last time.

Chester 7.20 – Cosmic Chatter 3/1

Chepstow 8.10 – Fehaydi 10/11

Bets 11/07/2013

Oh dear oh dear. I am in horrendous form. No excuses yesterday. Just got beat.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped 3 today:
Newmarket 1.40 - Boite 15/2
Newmarket 3.15 - Red Avenger 12/1, Matrooh 4/1

I hope I've not gone too far from the obvious today:

Newmarket 1.40 – I’ve got Dare To Achieve in my tracker but I Feel Like Dancing 7/2 (Skybet) and celebrating a Gosden hatrick in this race. Actually, hmm, feck I don’t know. That Remote form is strong, distance is strong, my tracker is strong and Dare To Achieve 5/2 (generally) must be the stronger bet?

Newmarket 2.10 – I make Canyari 7/1 (Willhill) the top rated based on average improvement and what Legend Rising has gone on to do. However, Sir John Hawkins is 11/8 with Ladbrokes. They always avoid short price favourite Obrien winners. Next best price is 15/8 so they are very very short on this. Do they know? Is this a lump job?

Newmarket 2.40 – 4 year olds have a decent record in this. Not convinced this is the best trip for Cavalryman despite being top rated. Wigmore put in place by Universal, but that race was dictated by Universal and I just pray they don’t let him do the same again but Universal 9/2 does look the one to beat. However, I’m a huge huge Ahzeemah 9/1 fan and as long as Barza doesn’t leave it too late. He has put horses like Imperial Monarch and Saddlers Rock well in their place.

Newmarket 3.15 – Maputo is attracting bunce and with Johnston handicappers coming into form I know why. RP videos aren’t working properly which has pi$$ed me off so have to go on comments and that Space Ship 8/1 is a better handicapped horse using Number One London as a marker. Soviet Rock 14/1 is another I keep following. Interesting to see whether will battle Maputo for the lead

Doncaster 4.15 – Reve De Nuit 16/1 looks a big price after a close 2^nd to Nanton last time out. That form is decent enough

Newmarket 4.25 – Montiridge 8/11. Am nervous about Ashdan, but Hughes likes this one

Newmarket 5.00 – Fratellino 10/1 (managed to get this yesterday) is 9lb lower rated on turf and must have a huge chance. Is now 5/1 generally. Gutted didn’t get on Doctor Parkes 9/2 and Williams has a great record with sending winners out again within 7days. Avon Breeze has some decent form but surely will struggle with weight hike, class up and quick ground? Hopefully will – sorry Frankie.

Bets 10/07/2013

Gifted Girl was a well backed winner, but I think she was very lucky. All the news reads Gifted Girl impresses, but anyone who watches the races will see 2 furlongs every horse was being pushed except for Ultrasonic who was still tanking along on the bridle, who if has a clear run would have beaten GG (IMO). I want a rerun! My first two picks came second fair and square and I got the last handicap all wrong which meant I lost 5 singles and 2 accs. Rats. I need an ego boost. Time to look for winning favourites…

Catterick 2.20 – Money Team 6/5 ought to trounce this field back on GF. The only possible danger on paper is Patisserie with form behind Ventrua Mist but that was on soft ground and performed poorly on quick ground last two.

Yarmouth 3.40 – Qawaafy’s form has yet to be truly tested whereas Drahem’s 11/10 last race is littered with handicap winners. You have to be worried about the Varian horse in first time headgear, but both stables are in good form and looking at it again think Qawaafy acts better with give in ground.

Yarmouth 4.10 – Poisson D’Or 5/2 has decent form at this level and with Azreal out I can’t see any dangers!?

Worcester 6.40 – On The Bridge 11/10 is surely still a good handful ahead of the handicapper

Kempton 6.50 – Thatchit 4/1 will appreciate step up in trip and the winner of that race was 3^rd in listed next. Similar story with Got To Dance behind Fig Roll but flopped next time out.

Bets 09/07/2013

No explanation for first two races at Ayr. Goldie jocked me to two surprise blows. Third race I shouldn’t have backed the horse - firstly stable in poor form and secondly 4 horse race. Angelito was slow out of stalls and then was breezing up the field until freaking saddle slipped and irons lost, but thankfully Piper’s Note drifted in the market and then bolted up.

Wolves 2.45 – Thorpe 3/1 – form behind Libertarian and Elidor!

Wolves 3.15 – Win a few Nickels and Dimes 11/8 with decent form from last year. Gosden in fly mode.

Pontfract 4.00 –. I said that the Dalkala form is rock solid after Emirates Queen won at weekend, but it worries me Lady’s First has not got her head in front and has cost me a couple of times. In fact on paper Gifted Girl beats Lady’s First but watching that Epsom race the one to take away has to be Ultrasonic 9/2 who had no clear path late on before finishing well. You need stamina at Ponte and with Stoute’s great form and record here he knows what’s hot and what’s not. She ran well behind Mince here last season too.

Pontefract 4.30 – FFS! I need to start punting the day before on big handicaps. I eyed up Solar Spirit 25/1 yesterday, but now freaking 6/1 in places! Argh! Now feeling forced (which is ridic) to look for another outsider and although Defence Council 25/1 is somewhat interesting this is very competitive which lots of good form and good form lines coming into play

Bets 08/07/2013

Ayr 4.00 – Muharrer looks to have the best form on show but just doesn’t look likely to see this trip out. Peters out towards the end and think Cosmic Sun 11/2 can have him again as only 1lb difference. Am concerned cheekpieces aren’t back on, but 11/2 is far better value than the 2/1 on Muharrer. Forrest Flyer has done okay at C5/6 but might find C4 too much.

Ayr 4.30 – Kingscroft 6/4 is annoyingly short. Could have backed him at 7/2 yesterday but I just enjoyed the sunshine too much. Still think he’ll win this, but only a short margin as is on a tough mark but 170yards back in trip on fast ground looks ideal.

Ayr 5.00 – I know the danger of 4 horse races but Normal Equilibrium 11/8 is another Cowell rocket. I know his horses aren’t at peak but NE beats Storm Moon at weights twice and the rest don’t look good enough.

Windsor 7.30 – Drew a few form lines around Ajjadd and Asian Trader and got Angelito 9/2 to beat Waseem Faris 8/1

Ripon 8.20 – Jillnextdoor who beat Jadanna comfortably in Listed race at Ayr last time got thumped by Piper’s Note in a handicap here couple of weeks ago so there is no reason to think Jandanna is well handicapped. Having watched Piper’s Note’s 5/2 last two races I don’t believe 7lb is enough for Line of Reason to turn it around, despite rock solid form. However what might be the difference is Fallon against Chaloner, but there are a lot of front runners so hopefully this will set it up for Piper’s Note if the breaks are there. Think will need to be ridden earlier today though. 

Bets 07/07/2013

Solid day yesterday, but could have been far better if either 18/1 or 12/1 came 1^st and not second. Either way I trusted this guy who called me and Ashaad did exactly what connections said and won with considerable ease. Al Ka was impressive, Nargys disappointing again and we now have to write of Maxios formlines and bolster the Dalkala form. I had a suspicion about Emirates Queen. Just look at the success of the Middleton Stakes line up. Ambivalent won G1, Ladys First 2^nd in G2, Cubinata 3^rd (by 0.5lenghts) G3, so Emirates Queen winning a G2 against a fairly average 100 rated lot at 20/1 was not a massive upset like the news reads! I’m sure when I looked at the price was 8/1 in the morning which is why was not overly bothered.

Ayr 3.00 – Now My Sun 3/1 has been running in better contested races, won his last race with more ease than paper suggests, and San Cassiano who finished 4^th behind him last time won next race by 4.5 lengths so decent chance.

Maisons-Laffitte 2.40 – Small field so ought not to be any traffic problems for Intello 4/11 who is short, yes, but surely worthy.

Limerick 4.35 – Pricewise has gone for For A Finish 9/2. Can’t comment – not heard of 14/16 horses in the field!

Bets 06/07/2013

Day ended off with a nice 20/1 win yesterday and may there be more to come. Limited time again today, but will see what can whack out. Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has 4 picks today:

Sandown 2.40 – Trader Jack 20/1

Haydock 2.55 – Wannabe Loved 12/1

Haydock 3.30 - Sir Graham Wade 16/1, Star Lahib 16/1

No time for write ups for me I’m afraid….

Haydock 1.45 – Tumblewind 6/1

Sandown 2.05 –Hoyam 11/1

Haydock 2.20 – Masamah 11/4

Sandown 2.40 – Windhoek 9/2

Haydock 2.55 – Moment In Time 7/2, Gallipot 10/1

Sandown 3.15 – Nargys 2/1

Haydock 3.30 – Quixote 18/1

Bev 3.40 – Flash City 12/1, Lenny Bee 12/1

Sandown 3.50 – Pastorious 12/1, Al Kazeem 9/4

Sandown 4.25 – Caucus 9/4

Haydock 4.40 – Tartiflette 6/1, Galician 9/1 (Ashaad 5/1 is the tip from the random guy - he called to say he'll be dropped in to negate the draw and then will bowl passed the field as long as clear run)

Sandown 5.00 – Seamless 7/1, Endorsing 7/1

11.20am update - just seen Ladbrokes are clear short on Dec of War so don't be surprised to see it win!
12.30pm update - Tepmokea 3rd in this last year and lower in weights has seen a lot of money in for it last 2 days!

Bets 05/07/2013

Al Khan beat by a nose and La Fortunata by a head was very painful to see. I had Al Khan, Great Hall and Mont Ras in a 300/1 Treble! Argh. Also, Pearl Street, what happened. This tipster has some explaining to do. 12/1 into 3/1 then came last. Something smells….

Sandown 2.20 – Cracking a race like this is tough, but if you do you are a freaking hero. Joe Packet 11/2 is the obvious one back to 5f. Absolutely bolted up over C&D. Oddly it’s the only time ridden over 5f in whole career. But I want a big price and the two others I’m on are Edge Closer 20/1 and Kyleakin Lass 33/1. Both have solid C&D form and decent jocks onboard. The former will be sharper after first run back and the latter is in good form.

Sandown 3.25 – Argh I’ve been sucked into an unexposed 3yr race by Calrissian 9/1. Naughty. Decent debut, decent 5lb claim hopefully decent improvement.

Doncaster 3.35 – I think the market has got the top 3 right, but what they are not expecting is something to pop out of the blue and bounce back to form. At 25/1, in first time headgear, 2^nd run of the season, back to a track has done well on before Hadaj has to be worth a speculative punt.

Sandown 4.00 – Van Deer Neer looks the best at the weights with the allowance but Mandour 2/1 looks very strong. If you want to back a long shot then Dick Dough’lie can be backed at 18/1 to be placed on Betfair.

Haydock 7.15 – Handicap debutants are tough but the form of Woodland Girl 16/1 and Limegrove 20/1 both in first time props really appeals and the marks they have been given. I drew the formlines and had 10lb difference handicapper made it 15lb but Limegrove has 5lb claimer so was a dead heat for me!

Bets 04/07/2013

Why hit a Lucky 31 on low grade racing, only my perhaps apparent oncoming addiction might be able to answer. Daft. Anyhow been putting away decent bets on golf and baseball over the lst couple of days (purely on tips) so all is good. However, back to the serious stuff.

Yarmouth 3.10 – I know it’s a class 5 but I have Greyfriar’ta 16/1 on my tracker and is technically 8lb better off with First Class when only 1.75 lengths behind 2 races ago over C&D

Haydock 3.50 – The favourite looks like still on a winning mark and think ground was issue last time, but Mutafaakir 9/4 looks good enough. The danger and worth a bet without the favourite is Al Khan 8/1 (w/o fav)

Haydock 4.50 – Great Hall 9/2 may be top weight but still looks decent enough to win this on form

Haydock 5.50 – I googled banjaydesai Mont Ras and not surprised to find “I like the Mont Ras form”, “I no longer like the Mont Ras form”, “I don’t like the Mont Ras form”. Today I like it 5/2

Newbury 6.50 – Take a random pick, or a slightly informed one; Hannon won this 3 times in last 4 years. Admiral Spirit for Hannon won this on debut 3 yrs ago and today from same family is Djinni 14/1 – this might mean absolutely nothing.

Epsom 7.10 – I like La Fortunata 5/2. Decent form in the book and goes well at Epsom

Epsom 7.45 – My Kingdom 4/1 on a winnable mark, in good form and goes well at Epsom

Epsom 8.20 – I’ve been given a tip – Pearl Street 8/1. It’s been back into 3/1 in places. Seems dodge to me but I jumped on at 8/1 so we see what happens!

Bets 03/07/2013

Even though a cheeky win on Galician I feel I'm struggling to find form at the moment. Trying new things, going for the less obvious and perhaps not sticking to the basics? Who knows....

Catterick 4.00 – Two C&D winners on winnable marks – Solar Spirit 8/1 and West Leake Hare 8/1

Fairyhouse 7.00 – Along Came Casey 9/4 is not one I’ve heard of, but you can’t argue with that form even if at different distances.

5.05pm update.. At freaking last. A decent winner @ Catterick. WLH is plenty ahead of the handicapper.

At Catterick gone for a small Lucky 31 with the profits on Storm Trooper, Swenab, Hidden Belief, Filatore and Party Palace. 

Bets 02/07/2013

Hamilton 4.00 - Quick Wit 1/3 ought to win by a few lengths, but you wouldn't write Galician off

Brighton 5.15 - Varian banging them in and Aglaophonos 2/1 looks well enough handicapped on debut to win

Bets 01/07/2013

Pontefract 4.00 - Misplaced Fortune 3/1 - Visor back on, down in weights, down in grade, back on good ground and decent C&D

Can't be arsed to go through average cards so maybe a double bet or just another bet on the place