Bets 29.03.2021

 Didn't blog it yesterday :( but hit Gun MEtal 15/2 and Aced IT 12/1 Plus double winner.... 

Typically only used 25% of normal stakes! D'oh

Messing around with form numbers today and only on low stakes..... Looking a best form horse has ever produced with todays race conditions. So some will have bounce back and others will be old, but it's good prctice form reading....not always best for betting unless other factors come together.

2.10 Fontwell - Only Gorgeous is chucked in on best form. Granted is old and has to bounce back

11/2 win

3.10 Fontwell - Backed Bashful BOy last time at much bigger odds than today but is well handicapped Im sure

11/4 win

3.40 Fontwell - Away Fro Slates looked well last time out and hopefully maintains that fomr

11/4 win

4.10 FOntwerll - Tentative on Heres Herbie. Feeling the oldies today. lol

11/1

4.40 FOntwell - Orchaestratred to bounce back to form with CPs? major IF

12/1

2.20 Statford - Nightfly 11/2 best on old form

2.30 Wincanton - THe Last but One 16/1 wins on best form, but is in **** form

4.00 Wincanton - Three Way 12/1 best handicappe don old form. Given current form could come last.

5.20 Wolves - LEt Rip 15/2

5.50 WOlves - Heres Hector 11/ 1 and     Flying Sols 4/1

6.20 Wolves - Hes a Dream 28/1

6.50 Wolves - I love 3yr ols nursey handicaps. FIorland should be favourite here. BIg chance at 11/2

Both ahead in market are of course well handicapped but no form at Wolves wherease Fiorland has smashed it here already

8.20 WOlves - Epic Pass 6/1. Mj merkage for last race of day

Bets 27.03.21

 Early season always tough for me as I try to play formlines, but as always let's crack it. Post Aintree starts to come together.

I've given up on PnL. I just don't have time. I can see from the only two betting accounts I use now I'm up £1k since start of the year so all good.

Doncaster 2.00 - There's 9lb separating this field ignoring the rock bottom Striding Edge. 

On current ratings Space Traveller wins this. 4lb clear on rating and a course winner. I think I'd feel better if had a notable jockey booking though.

Varian farms the race but with strong favourites and whilst Father of JAzz has strong AW form yet to be seen on turf.

Monthatam was imprioving quickly last year expect for last race. I backed a lot of Haggas runners backend of last year  most of which flopped. Given he is 2-2 already this season supsect this is the likley winner.

The outsider I'm going to back is Trais Fluors. I feel like should maybe have won the Listed race at Navan last summer and was travelling really well in the G3 Clipper before not finding much off the bridle. He was highly touted for Fabre. Condon couldn't get the best out of him so it's a punt but maybe Channon can. At peak this nag has the best ratings in the field

Trais Flours 33/1ew

Monthatam 7/2 win

Doncaster 2.35 - I feel this lacks depth. I can't see many decent improving nags or maybe I've lost my vision. Maybe is Poet's Lady?

Last few years low draw has been the place to be. Total gamble playing it like this as can of course change year to year and who knows what watering might happen. Saw some videos suggesting gorund was like concrete few days back!

As I can't see anything improving to win this, will look for an exposed horse on a decent mark , with fitness and decent enough run last time out. And yes lowish draw.

Obviously if Aquitted bounces back to form it wins but don't think necessarily worth the punt.

Dawaaleeb running well enough at the moment should enjoy the return to turf here. Was 4th in this a couple years back and 5lbs lower should see him go close.

Howzer Black takes more explaining but this claimer has ridden two blinders on HB at Ayr and I think can go close here. Form of last race working out well even if only a c5 race, pulled lengths clear of 3rd.

Dawaaleeb 16/1ew

Howzer Black 28/1ew

Poets Lady 10/1 win

Doncaster 3.10 - Even though same C&D winners of this are drawn high. But I remember Beloved Love switching from high to middle few years back and even Auxerre last year moved otward middle/low where ground is maybe quicker. Guess maybe in this race horses have the class to overcome the draw? Who knows. Not me.

This race generally goes to an improving sort and I can only really see 4 (Haaqey, Brenfdor Hope, Danhay and maybe Eastern World)

None of them looked more impressive though than Brentford Hope who toyed his oppoenents last time out and only ip

You know me though, got to find a big ew and at 66/1 Graphite stands out massively. Okay draw not great and been off for a long time, but Kent excelled with Ataser last year and I knew was really well handicapped. It was there on paper for everyone to see. As is this. Just pipped by the Rev in a G3, if can rev this one up after a long absnece must have a good ew shout. 

Brentford Hope 9/1 ew

Graphite 66/1ew

Doncaster 3.45 - IF Brando breaks well e wins.

Brando 5/1

Doncaster 4.55 - Leroy Leroy chucked in. I was really keen on this at Chelts in Nov, but a total flop. back ovr 10f is really well in if tuned up.

Leroy Leroy 11/1 ew

Doncaster 5.25 - Hot Team 6/1

------------

Fell asleep and not time to look at cards as planned :(

 

2.40 Meydan - WIldman JAck 15/2ew

3.30 Meydan - Lord NOrth 13/8

4.50 Meydan - I backed Gifts of Gold 50/1 but been told can't win! go figure.

Bets 26.03.2021

The flat is nearly back. can;t wait. 

Hit over £2,300 profit antepost with Chelts. During the week about £600 down. 

1.00 Newbury - Garry Clemment 15/2 ew. Back over hurdles. Potentially realy well handicapped based on that Larnger Dan form. Looked to be running back to form last chase race. Hopefully spot on back over hurdles.

1.30 Newbury I should be back Jesrey Bean at 7/1 but am chasing a loss on Admiral Barraty 7/1 ew. Cost me over £1k just before chelts. I think is still well handicapped and form still pretty good. backin C3 after been thrown in Listed race. Was haevily backed in that race to be pulled up after not travelling.

Bets 19.03.2021 - Chelts Day 4

1.20 JCB - Only been interested in Zanahiyr in the run up. Should have backed Antepost but for soem reason did not!

Zanahiyr 6/4

1.55 County Hurlde - I was going to back Champagne GOld at 14s but price crashed to 7s. Suspect due to the supberg Blackmore. Instead from the same formline I will go with Eclair De Beaufeu.

Was travelling the best in the county hurdle couple years back. I think has improved since. Went very close in the Grand Annual last year. In the last race was not given a hard time at all until jumped the last so will finish much better and sure Jack knows not to go too early

I thought really hard about Third TIme Lucky. Guess the For Pleasure did okay but still so far of 1st and 2nd and Botox was pulled up so the Chelts form he has not fully flourished.

Anna Burina was intesting at 100/1

Gowel ROad is chucked in in my books based on that last race. HAs a huge chance.

Gowel Road 14/1ew

Eclair De Beaufeu 9/1 ew

  rfc

2.30 Albert Barlett - 

Golden Doyen is intesting. Trainer thinks has come under the radar at a big price. It didn't travel or jump well over C&D, the hill was a challenge and on ratings it should have won anyway. It beat flooring potter in handciap but was giving 13lb, and clearly FLooring as imprived every race after but not seen that in GD.

Fakiera looks like the obvious AB horse and I think can turn the tables on Staller. Came from  long way back and not given a hard time.

The Other I must back is Threeunderfive. Got good sped rating, improving rapidly and form of last race is looking good.

Fakeira 5/1

Threeunderfive 11/1 ew

rfc

3.05 Gold Cup.

I have Minell Indo Antepost in an acca but not as a single. Clearly form has been franked.

This has to be about whether something improves past Al Boum who ceilinged on 175

Royal P is improving of course but surely can't improve that much on this ground?

Native comes here in solid form but ground against and even if upto 6lbs better since last GC can't turn tables with ABP

Champ has beaten Minello Indo who beaten by Kemboy who beaten by A Plus Tard who came from so far back to win last time out. Was a serious performance.

The other formline is Frodon. Beat a decent bunch as Kempton includng Santini. Nicholls could have a decent day and we could see a female jockey 1-2 today. Would be immense

A Plus Tard 3/1

Frodon 16/1ew

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3.40 -Hunters Chase. It Came To PAaS Antepost and Stand Up and Fight.

I kicked myself for not bothering about this race last year. Had I have looked I would have seen ICTP beating BIllaway. Not making the same mistake twice. Looking thorugh from Stand Up and Fight beet Billway and It Came TO Pass this season. Granted beat Billiway with fe lbs and a mistkae at the lasst but looks to have improved a lot over the years.

It Came to Pass ANTEPOST 10/1

Stand up and Fight 12ew

rfc

4.15 - Mares Chase - Shattered Love.

I thought about fave backing. I thought about Coolvery as lots of form franks, but Shattered Love is  C&D winner with the ground and distance perfect.

Magic Of Light on paper at the weights wins thought right? Hmm. 

Shattered Love 13/2 ew

Magic of light 16/1ew

Rfc

4.50 - Martin Pipe - Martinhal the unexposed improver

At about 1am this morning I backed Dream Berry and Amour De Nuit. I was not drunk and I don't remember doing it. I'm not cashing out in case had good logic, but I can't work it out now. Maybe was A dream about a night love. Anyway... back to calling the winner.

Martinhal's form is on show as race he won producing winner on marks that makes me think this one is well handicapped.

Gentleman De Mee could be anything. Can't work out if well handicapped or not, but given crash I assume is. I might back it with some other faves.

Martinhal 22/1ew

rfc with Gentleman

Couple of doubles

Billaway/Gentleman double.

Champagne GOld/Fakier double

Shed load of accas as well with above selcation

Bets 18.03.2021 - Chelts Day 3

 Antepost bets whizzing up. Collected another £850 from £62 bet.

1.20 Marsh Novice Chase. Not taking on Envoi Allen.

1.55 Pertemps - Unowhatimeanharry is a proper old boy. Top weight no barrier to winning a race like this and course form is decent in earlier days. Ran ablinder at Aintree so clearly still has it in him and drying ground will help. 

Bosses Oscar 5/1

Unowhatimeanharry 66/1 ew

rfc

2.30 - I have Min 6/1 Antepost, but this was before his poor show at Leopardstown. Not sure what to think of it

I will also back Fakir who gave it a really good go against Put the Kettle on last year and could give Min a hard time up the hill

Min ANTEPOST 6/1ew

Fakir D'O 7/1ew

rfc

3.05 Stayers Hurdle

Fury Road is still improving. Missed some good prices annoying. form with Monkfish last year gives good chance.

Fury Road 4/1

3.40 Paddy Power Handicap - Happy Diva and Top Notch.

Happy Diva didn't underperform as much as rating suggests? Crusied into contention and maybe needs better ground these days. Ran really well in this race last year and hopefully a decent chance.

Top Notch 2nd in the JLT years back. I'm backing the fact wind surgery sticks a rocket up it's arse to bring it back to form.

Eanon De Craic might be a pipe plot. If see money for it will chuck some coins on.

Backed The Shunter at Leopstown and blew my accas, but clearly has a decent chance. Really short now.

Happy Diva 16/1 ew

Top  Notch 28/1ew

rfc

4.15 Mares - Hook Up  

Has improved steadily over the last year and surely now has the best formlines.

Hook Up 13/2 ew

4.50 Kim Muir - I lost my AP bet with Escaria Ten. Hmm. Where to go instead.

Shantou FLyer in great nick and well weighted.

Double Shuffle longshot

Shantout Flyer 9/1 ew

Doule SHuffle 40/1ew

rfc

Bets 17.03.2021 - Chelts Day 2

 Antepost bets faired well Appreciate It 3/1 and Aye Right 16/1ew

Today big antepost in Bob Olinger at 10/1 plus a double with Appreciate It.

1.20 Ballymore. Antepost Bob Olinger £25 ew 10/1

No point playing anything else for me.

1.55 Brown Advisory - Monkfish can't be beat? Can always fall at last hurdle though. Seem to attract them :) Nearly 1 stone ahead on ratings. (no single)

2.30 Coral Cup Jasnika and Monte Cristo.

Janika is totally chucked in here. Group horse in a handicap. Was rated 165 chaser. If runs to the 158 as did in Reekel this wins.

Monte Cristo was a tp I got from someone (yes you Hakkan) last year and spunked loads antepost on it for the triumph. anyway clearly was well thoguth of and totally hosed up last time so maybe now found it's mojo to keep progressing.

Blu Sari has rock flat form with Envoi Ellen but not yet seen it replicste over jumps.

birchdale was interesting but will stick with 2. 

Janika £25ew 33/1

Monte Cristo £25 ew 14/1

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3.05 QMCC - Chacacacun Pour Soi   (no single)

3.40 Glenfarcas - Easysland (no single)

4.15 - Grand Annual - How many can I back? TBC Still thiniking about this one

Duc Des G is really intersting down in class, but top weight in a handcaip like this is surely not easy?

Them and Us decent festival run last year

Blue Druan chucked in on old form here

Duc Des Generrive £25ew 22/1

Us and Them 12/1 £25ew

Blue Duran £25ew 33/1

4.50 - Kilcruit (no single)

5 fave fold

Bets 16.03.2021 - Chelts Day 1

 1.20 - Supreme - I have Appreciate it 3/1 AntePost. I don't think I'd be tipping it again at 5/4 but still fancy it to win.

Ballydam travelled much further than Appreciate It last time and screwed the last fence so suspect will be much closer this time assuming can jump cleanly. Who knows what impact change of yard would have had.

Metier smashed the Tolworth. Ground has come a bit more into favour but  maybe jumps a bit to the right?

Blue Lord looked decent last time out in the same race as AI and Bally. Given was off the bridle before both and finished 6l behind Bob Olinger over 2m4f I just think this stiff track will suit over shorter. Blue Bresil Sire has a solid record at Chelts as well.

For Pleasure won the trial and if makes all again at a decent pace not sure who it will suit best or maybe he just wont be caught

Irascrible I just cant find an angle for this one

Soaring Glory. Romped the Betfiar hurdle and has beaten Bravesmans Game! Surely must have a decent chance as well.

In summary this is bloody hard :)

ANTEPOST - Appreciate It 3/1 £50

Blue Lord 10/1 £25ew

rfc

1.55 Arkle - Can't see beyond Shiskin

Think Shiskin will whallop Allmankind up the hill. AMK will come back and win at Aintree :)

Captain Guineass is better than Fracno De Port on Collateral form but have to be worried about CG jumping but is maybe the biggest threat is jumps cleanly?

Ellerdo Allen well held by Shiskin and not heard of Numitor

Shiskin in an acca but not on the nose

Captain Guineass for the ew acca only

rfc

2.30 Ultima - I have backed Aye Right 16/1 Antepost.

Happygolucky is the improving nag with solid festival form here. It's his to lose. Finding it hard to find anything else. 

I still like Aye Right and happy with the ew, but not sure can beat Happygolucky.

Native Milan ran well at festival last year but I think you are betting on whether wind op improved this one over a stone. Up 8lbs from last year and had a 7lb claimer. 

The Wolf ran okay in AB and maybe an interesting ew. The Hendo nags are always a worry in these handicaps but looks like National main target so wouldnt want an awfully hard race?

Alnadam is the other improver I like. Skelton had had a stormer this year no reason this can't be another big handcap winner

Happygolucky £50 10/3

Alnadam £25ew 9/1

rfc

3.05 Champion Hurdle - Epatante for the bouble,

Eptante was something special in the fifghting fifth. I think all Hendo nags were rubbish over Xmas but still ran a decent RPR at kempton.

I think Honeysuckle maybe better over 2m4f, that said stamina at chelts always a plus. Hopefully we see a decet fight up the hill.

Goshen should have won the triumph. Maybe not by the 10 lengths was ahead before unseated rider and yes beat AMK but I dont think he a chelts horse so not convinced on the form

Abracadrbas looks a rock solid ew and could have won the Supreme last year.

Sharajah I think  held by Eptante and Silver Streak thumped Epatnate but hopefully yard form as above was reason.

Could back many of these but will stick with one.

Epatante £50 7/2

3.40 MAres Hurlde - Concertica looks decent right.

Roskana is having a great time of things but I worr about dropping back in trip.

Dame De Comp was a lovely winner of the Coral last year and probably biggest theat and one for the ew

Concerista £50 11/8

Dame De COmpaign for the ew acca

rfc

4.15 Juvenil Hurlde - Struggling to get away from Houx Gris. 

Hous Grix was cantering in a G1 last time out before hitting a wall. The form of race is good. Race in France is decent as Homme Public bolted up last race and think thats a mid 130s horse even though keeps mark of 125. So whilst could argue Homme Public is the value sounds like Nicholls has plotted this one up. Hopefully it's not Hell Red he has plotted up :)

Balko Saint would have been a solid bet had not blown mark by running in a novice race.

Another towards bottom of weights I like is Her Indoors. I'm convinced Talking About You ran to form at DOncaster and the collateral form proves the TAY mark is right. Therefore Her Indoors is potentially well handicapped as should be around 135 mark or so. 

Houx Gris £25ew 11/2

Her Indoors £25ew 33/1

rfc

4.50 NH CHallenge CUp - Remastered to make all

I like the way Remasterted bolted up at Ascot and Wetherby last time. I think is easily a 150+ nag.

I backed Escaria Ten for the Kim Muir pre wegiths. Stupid. Would have been a handicap blot. Danger.

Mighty Don was a bit tempting as I like the form with HappygoLucky but will stick with one

Remastered £25ew 11/2

Bets 15.03.2021

 Well Saturday was decent.

3.17 Plumpon - Insperius 6/1ew

3.47 Plumpton Ruby YEats 9/1ew

Bets 13.03.2021

 Hmm. I blew 15% of chelts pot other day. whopps.

1.15 Sandown - State Crwon 14/1

2.25 Sandwon Lnager Dan 7/1

3.00 Sandown Flirtaious Girl 7./1

3.35 Sandown Admiral Barraty 13/2

Bets 11.03.2021

 2.30 Meydan - I think the market has the top 3 right but no necessarily in the right order.

LAck Causeway 5/1 ran best race over this distance, Welcome Surprise 15/2 has really rock solid form with Shamikh. Great Image has potential even if not shown it but feel like is priced on potential surely which always a risk.

Welcome Surprise 15/2

Lake Casuseway 5/1

Combo tricast of course for the rest.

4.30pm update. 

4.55 - Ghabbanna 6/1 ew

5.30 - Royal Cosmic 11/1ew

7.00 - Dandy Gold 7/1ew

7.30 - Panzer Tank 33/1ew

8.30 - Cranktock Boy 9/1ew

Bets 09.03.2021

1 decent 2nd, 1 agonizing 2nd, 1 2nd I should have backed instead of the other, and an odds on winner. Singles keep the float going and accas will hit home soon.

Rubbish racing but keeping the practice up before chelts innit :) I don't feel strongly about many of the jumps horse, a lot need to bounce back. flat feel it.

12.30 Exeter - Valsheda 13/8

1.00 Exter - Rocco River 8/1ew

1.35 Exter - Bumpy Johnson 9/4, Doctor Dotty (150/1ew 5 places)

3.10 Exter - Briugadier Bob 12/1ew (4 places)

3.40 exter - Kapiliste 14/1ew

 4.,30 Clomel - Hilltop Supreme 10/3

4.40 Southwee - Giiogiobbo 15/2ew - down in class solid C&D drop in weight good chance surely as draw no hiderance either

6.10 soutwell - temur khan 7/2, form of last race working out. decent C&D

7.10 southwell - Last date 11/4. Only neg is slightly awkward draw

Gigi/temur £20 double

Place 5fold £20  Valsheda, Bumpy, Hilltop,m Temur, Last Date 

£10ew 4 fold hillttop, giiboo, temur, last date. £5 trebles

Bets 08.03.2021

 Solid Saturday. One place away from an extra £1.4k or so. 

3.05 Southweel - Jaunty SOria 12/1ew (3 places) looks well handicapped id you ignore fact hit penutlimate jump last race then gave up. Back on better ground

3.15 Wetherby - RObin Des Smokes 10/1 ew(3 places)  Using Found On as a marker not sure why Hunny Moon is 4/5 vs RDS 10/1. 

4.30 Leo - It's only a number 10/3 bolted up last time.

5.40 Wolves - Storm Over 12/1ew.(4 places) decent draw. C&D winner. Should go close barring any jockness. Diamond DOugall will fight for lead and it's class may prove stronger, but SO price much better value as form of last two araces working out well.

6.40 Jannie Mate - 10/11

7.40 Wolves - Carmere 8/1 ew (4 places) Hopefully well handicapped on debut here. formlines with thst MJ nag who bolted up everyone raving about. Drsaw is a potential challenge.

ew doubles, trebles and 4 fold (Jaunty, RObin, Storm, Carmere)

Jennie Mat Adn Its Jsust a number double

Jennie MAt win, Robin place and Storm place treble

Bets 06.03.2021

 Meydan 1.10 - If Shanghai City tries to take the lead I will have an issue as I'm chancing Bochart bounces back to form by making all with a relatively uncontested lead from a decent draw. That said everyone will have done their homework and will know not to allow that to happen. At 11/1 ew it's worth a gamble that can make all and reproduce form that saw him start as fave for this race last year.

Bochart 10/1ew 5 places skybet)

Meydan 1.45 - I have exactly the dame problem here. If Chiefdom tries to leg it from Stall 1 North America may not do the biz. Goes well fresh, loves it here at is top rated by 5lbs so maybe can shrug off any challenge from the inside stall. Another Mullins/Seema combo.

North America 3/1

Meydan 2.55 - I hate this group races. Much prefer handicaps. For some reason reaaly draw to Seemars nags. Roman Rossa 18/1 looks a decent ew. G1 winner in SA, ran a decent enough race over 1m. Step up in trip in favour and maybe not for others.

Roman Rossa 16/1 ew (4 places skybet)

Meydan 3.30 - Csan a 3year old win this? Well, Acklam Express should maybe have given Equaliateral more of a fright last time round. If this stays 6f will go mighty close. Gets a decent allowance.

Also why did Watson shove blinkers on Eythkaar? Anyway off now and can resume ways and go closel

Acklam Express 11ew (3 places b365)

Eytikhar 7/1ew (3 places b365)

1.50 Newbury -  Back on good ground loos to be progresisng agina. solid formlines

Another Crtick 11/1 ew (4 places betvictor)

2,.30 Newbury - Mliller Bank had wind surgey tht clearly had some effect. Decent enough win last time ran over hurdles. Ran well in a bumpber which has had its form franked so has a chance here.

Miller Banke 11/1 ew (3 places skybet)

£1ew doubles, £1ew trebles, £2e quad, £5ew acca (Bochart, Acklam, Another, Miller, Roman Ross)