Bets 01/07/2020

Okay. That didn't work. I'll just sleep less and watch video form again. Let's see if makes a difference today :)

Well after preparing some time to watch videos, total sh*te day of racing so just banter punting

3.10 Southwell - Well this popped up on my tracker for years ago! Romped a G3 race down in grade. Yes has been a while bu Johnson likes this horse. Will be targetting it for something valable in which case could do with going up some pounds.

3.10 Southwell Hunters Call 4/1
4.40 Kempton - Bacalitta 11/10
7.15 Kempton - Good Tidings 15/8
7.45 Kempton - Jack D'or 6/1

Bets 30/06/2020

Going to mess about a bit again :)

12.30 Doncaster - Digital 7/4 formline looks the best. Victory Hieights was drawn wrong side for Windsor Caslte but was flying home so Digital has decent chance.

2.00 Doncaster - Corinthia Kight 14/1, The Great Heir 7/1. 100/1 rfc :)

3.00 Doncater - Dalaniju 12/1, Cloud Drift 6/1. 70/1 rfc :)

3.30 Doncaster - First Winter 7/2

Bets 27/06/2020

1.15 Newcastle - Rathbone 12/1 ew

1.30 Newmarket - Arigato 4/1 ew

2.25 Newcastle - Fool For You 12/1ew

2.40 Newmarkwt - Mubtasim 5/1 ew

2.50 Redcar - Dawaaleeb 14/1ew

3.35 Newcastle - Cosmelli 16/ew

4.00 Redcar - Bal Mal 5/6

Bets 26/06/2020

I thought Kimifive was pretty unlucky yesterday.

12.45 Doncaster - Lathom has been turned out very quickly. Surely Midgley wouldnt do it, if didnt fancy chances. Was the last off the bridle at Hamilton, and looked a tad unbalanced and hampered. Last time ran over C&D was effectively 87 with a claimer, but today 78 which would have won him that race where was short of room. Trainer hitting winners as well.

If Laith Alareen is fit, looks a huge outside price at 25/1

Lathom 9/1 ew

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1.20 Doncaster - Meade is making good noises about this nag Method and he has booked Ryan Moore.

Method 15/8

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3.25 Doncaster - Part of me really wants to back Aqua Libre in first time pieces. Carroll must be plotting this horse up for as win at some point. Hills opened at 18/1. B365 at 5/1 but sure sure I can justify it beyond this so no punt.

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2.45  Newmarket - Mia Mento needs to get a decent start and if does will have a decent chance.

Mia Mento 11/2 ew

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3.15 Newmarket - Evenign Sun has the best formline

Evening Sun 6/4

Bets 25/06/2020

1.45 Haydock - Kimifive 5/1 ew

Brings strong Ascot form. Nearly won off this mark at C&D. James Doyle booked. Is a distance winner.


2.45 Haydock - Returnofthemac 2/1

Well in off a mark of 76 I reckon given he smashed two horses rated 76 and 75. Unless BHA got both their marks wrong :)


Double 18/1

Bets 20/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 5

11.30am update - filled out the two no bet races :) :) :) 

12.40 - Aplomb 4/1, Embour 14/1

1.15 - More Beautiful 6/4, Sands of Time 25/1

1.50 - Qaader 4/1

2.25 - Alpine Star 3/1

3.00 - Pinatubu 6/4

3.35 - One Master 9/2

4.10 - Lethal Lunch 33/1, Summerghand 10/1

4.40 - Addratos 20/1

Bets 19/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 4

9.45am update:

1.15 - Mighty Spirit ran really well in the Queen Mary despite the draw so we know is well suited to this C&D. Has had a lot of bad luck with all sorts. Finally got given a confidence booster in a lowly grade to get head in front. Have drawn several formlines out and this comes up near the top. Also has second highest top speed rating in the race, a decent claim and on the right side of the draw. Fahey's form has to be a worry, but at 16/1 with 5 places worth a pop. I'm fed up of calling out chucked in horses that are, but don't run to their mark. Clearly Art Power is ahead of mark and will no doubt win as I'm trying to find bigger value :)

Mighty Spirit 16/1 ew 5places

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1.50 - There is so little formline available just can't bet. The punter in me says hit Mother Earth but I can't put it up without any rationale :)

2.25 - Another race with little form. However what does exist is the Tactical formline line who won the Windsor Castle. Eye of Heaven was the winner that day. Broke the 2year old track record with ease. Could have smashed it, if really given a race. Will it take to soft though? The challenger on 'word' is Golden Pal. Wesley Ward said was his best chance of a winner this week. Will it take to soft though? And then there's the AOB nag. I never get AOB right.

So here's what I'll do.

Eye of Heaven 9/4

Mother Earth/Lipizzaner 17/1 AOB Double
Golden Pal/Flying Aletha 99/1 Ward Double

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3.00 - Hmm. Elaqarm and Van Dyck are the obvious picks. WIll the ground really go against these high class nags or will they mash through it?

Defoe and Morando are solid C&D winners and look the next obvious picks.

Then there's the more unexposed improvers and seeing as I'm having a below par week anyway, going to take a punt on Hamish. Bolted up with top weights at York and travlelled as the likley winner last time out, but just couldnt pick up on very heavy ground but regasrdless was a massive step up again. Another massive step up with see this go really close (I hope).

Hamish 15/2 ew

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3.35 - The Earthlight form is some of the best in Europe over 6f, so Golden Horde must have a huge chance today based on that alone. There are two many threats to list out so will need to be ew play

Goldern Horde 5/1 ew

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4.10 - Surely can;t bet on a race where none have run the distance.

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4.40 - Indianaplois won C&D with a lot more ease than result shows. Jockey was in full control and was just pushed out. Then followed up with another decent handicap win on heavy ground. GIven is in good form, horse has had a blow out and the wide draw in not a huge negative as likes to be held up so can be edge out to power home late.

Westend Charmer is another that looks chucked in but that's not workd out well for me this week. If El Misk and Medal Winner take to the ground they are both ahead of mark so have chances.

Indianapolis 10/1 ew 

Art Power / Westend Charmer Chucked In Double 17/1

Bets 18/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 3

12.45pm update. All done. Rain will cause carnage so not going in hard....

1.15 - Down to four. Ya Hayati is potentially well handicapped back on turf but is such a big drifter on the market I guess I need to be weary? Acquitted has some seriously decent formlines with English King who is 4/1 for the Derby and Palace Pier who is 4/1 for St James on Saturday. However, has not run the distance and Tritionic beat this nag of same weights by 4 lenghts. Clearly doesn't take into account improvement and Acquitted has a run under belt vs Tritonic who does not. Tritonic has also not run the distance, but was bought for hurdling and think the dip killed him at Newmarket more than anything else. My main pick though has to be Maori Knight. Is 6lb well in on offical ratings, has race fitness, has a feather weight and we know gets the distnace.

1st - Maori Knight - 8/1
2nd - Tetronic 9/1

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1.50 - Dubai Warrior looked decent last time out but has a 5lb penalty for it. Monarchs Glen won this race for Gosden with a penalty but there were not the likes of Fox Tal and Sir Dragonet in it. Sir Dragonet is the higest rated and whilst has not won at 10f if AOB thought it could not win would have chucked more darts in here and I'd hope change distance again. It's the highest rated in race and I think the best chance. Fox Tal maybe didnt make the distace over C&D on soft ground. Mountain Angel was the bane of my punting life couple years ago and goes well fresh.  King Ottokar might be a nice ew play at 4 places given C&D form from last years meeting.I could go on, but bored and ultimately we have the closet thing to a G1 winner in Sir Dragonet being persisted by with AOB at Royal Ascot and is the highest rated.

Sir Dragonet 5/2

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2.25 - Mr Snowden at 50/1 might be fun to follow each way given beat a Gosden hotpot, a lot easier than the result shows, who is running today, but this is tough and I cant choose between Monarch of Eygpot, Celestim, Final Song and King  Leonidas.

King Leo looks really good, but is not experienced and very short in the betting. Hmm. Given Final Song is a Course winner, soft ground winner and distance winner will plump here. Monarch of Egypt the other.

Final Song 8/1 ew
Monarch of Egypt 4/1


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3.00 - First Phophet 8/1 ew

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3.35 - Take on Strady or not?  I've tried to may times for the value even though I know is futile so anything has to be an ew play.

It's tough, let's be fair. Erm.Cross Counter, Technical and Moonlight Spirit ought to be fighting it out for places. Technicain wants it very soft. Will it get thast soft? Moonlight wants it faster. Cross Counter an interupted prep. So, if one of these flops, at a huge 33/1 ew might be worth backing Mekong for place money. Fluffed start in the Long Distnace Cup and if not for that could have nabbed 3rd perhaps. The price is surely because don't know if stays?

Mekong 33/1 ew


4.10 - Finest Sound is chucked in assuming race does not come too soon. Bolted p over 5 lengths and only has a 5lb penalty. Plum draw, better win :)

Finest Sound 6/1

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4.40 - How is African Dream only rated 80? Last race giving 7lb ran a 106 rated horse close.

Looks like has 2 stone in hand!

Decent draw and Gosden still on money.

African Dream 5/2! Be surprised if doesn't go off closer to odds on.

Bets 17/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 2

11am update - All done. Good luck folks

Ascot 1.15 - Ouzo has the draw. Should have won last race but now goes off same mark. Clearly race fit for that run. Moore onboard so obvious why the fave.

If Maydanny was drawn on the other side would be all over it as looks chucked in. Interesting the other MJ nag, Asdaa, is a NR. Given the form worked out massively yesterday a shame not to watch it run. Will be either the draw so saving for another day or perhaps they really fancy Maydanny.

Red Bond may well make all and not be caught. Darrik form is strong as Vitralite keeps it there depeite Darrik flop yesterday I assume because of turf like I was worried about.

1st - Ouzo - 6/1
2nd - Red Bond 22/1 ew

Ascot 1.50 - No bet

Ascot 2.25 - This is a risk, but given Bright Melody was close enough to Piledriver who won yesterday could be really well handicapped. The risk is the inexperience and fact not run on turf, but at 8/1 willing to take the punt. Had a very slow start, looked green, came wide, but once got the hang of it started to pick up very well. Kipps is 5lb ahead of mark

1st - Bright Melody - 8/1
2nd - Kipps 4/1

Ascot 3.00 - Addeybb will surely need it softer than it will be which leaves Japan 6lb clear of anything else. Romped the King Edward Stakes over 12f, but then won the Juddmonte over 10f so distance not a challenge. Only 4years old so will no doubt have improved and AOB only chucks one dart so confidence must be high.

1st - Japan 6/5
2nd Addeyb 4/1

Ascot 3.35 - Landed this with Afaak last year and reckon he can again. Effectively the same mark with the 3lb claim. Drawn well.  Won this last year when first run of season as well so goes well fresh. Dark Vision was my cliff horse last year so have to have a small saver

1st - Afaak 12/1 ew (7 places with Skybet)
2nd - Dark Vision 10/1


Ascot 4.10 - Sticking with high draw but not finding too much. Wesley Ward says Sheriff Bianco wil be twice as good on turf which sounds like subtle bullishness. Watching the race looks the better of the runners too.

Sheriff Bianco 7/1 ew

Ascot 4.40 - Ranch Hand if improved over break has a strong hand, but perhaps conditions and track were perfect at Haydock when won so well. Has been really well backed in the market as well. Fujairia Prince wasn't unlucky not to win the DUke of Edinburgh last year, but likley step up will suit but you'd have to take a punt on that. I have four on the shortlist still. Collide was tanking through the race where it beat Land of Oz who marginally franked the form with effort yesterday but now has a 5lb penalty. Selino totally romped a field last time out so could be anything of this mark. If Hochfiled runs to best is well handicapped and Ernesto could be well handicapped. Based on that German race could be a 110 horse although been gelded since and maybe not worth the punt at this stage.

Given Land of Oz didnt fully frank the form and given Qatar Racing just bought Selino who looks totally unexposed that's where I head.

1st - Selino 10/1 ew
2nd - Ranch Hand 4/1

Berlin Tango/ Rand Hand Double worth a couple coins

Bets16/06/2020 - Royal Ascot Day 1

Will be tough this year without the usual prep races to assess winners and losers but let's see what happens:

Ascot 1.15 - Daarik is most likely to be the group horse in a handicap but I always find it hard backing horses like this with no turf form of value. None stand out massively for me in this race.

Kaeso is interesting because of the C& near win. Greenside may be the vsalue bet in this race.

I think/I hope drawn well. Decent C&D form. Goes okay fresh. Decent claimer.

Daarik  4/1

Greenside 18/1  e/w 6places

Ascot 1.50 - Terebellum looks decent but can't understand the drop in trip at this stage. Space Traveller ran well in the Breeders Juvenile Turf, but most likely held by Cirrus Maximus. Maries Diamond romped last time out but always runs well at the Rowley and the one time at Ascot no so well. I've still got many on the shortlist for this :(  Plumatic is probably a 118-120 horse, given formlines with Expert Eye and Lightening Spear. Duke of Hazzard improving at a rate of knots. Billesdon the 1k winner always a underrated and fnally AOB's Circus. Hmm

Circus Maximum 9/2

Duke of Hazard 18/1 ew 5 places

Ascot 2.25 - Hmm. Not one to go overboard on. Frankly Darling as it all on paper so why not. I fancied Trefoil in last race so no doubt will show me up this time :)

Franky Darling 6/4

Ascot 3.00 - No bet

Ascot 3.35  - Battash goes well fresh and whilst beaten in this by Blue Point last year on ratings is very far ahead of the pack. Liberty Beach is very interesting but maybe too tough for a 3year old running again after only 9 days

Battash 10/11 3pts win

Ascot 4.10 - Posted has a real issue with starts. If it breaks level could be a huge ew price to play with. Queen Power coming back in trip is odd, even if a CD winner.

It's a tough one. Jubiloso has already finished 3rd in a g3 which is decent for a stoute 3 year old. Probably should have done better in the Oak Tree Stakes. I think the straight mile will help her get to top speed and given the usual stoute 3 to 4 year old improvment I hope she can prevail. I assume they'd not run her in a race like this if feet problems were not sorted?

Nazeef the clear danger

Jubilsos 3/1

Ascot 4.40 - I remember landing this race couple of years ago with Lagostovegas and wasn't sure it would catch Dubawi Fifty. It did but I hope this time DB will make all and go very very close and nothing will catch it this time :)

The two Nicholls nags could well be chucked in. Given San Benedeto is a 154 rated jumper running of  mark of 85 this could be a total shoe in. Distance not an issue. Has won on the ground and the course in previous years. Nicholls doing well enough so this has to be another solid ew.

Verdana Blue is an obvious favourite here and probably worth hitting in an acca, but given not run the distance has to be on faith (or insider) neither of which I have :) Land of Oz looks a decent but I'll wait till gets bit more experience under belt. Could win based on progressive profile but I'll wait.

Dubawi Fifty 12/1 ew 6places

San Benedeto 28/1 ew 6 places

Bets 07/06/2020

1.50 - Comminque 9/4. CD G2 winner. 6lb clear on rating. Stable in form. Gosden nag the big worry.

2.25 - Davydenko 9/4 on the upgrade and classic Stoute improvement in horses from 3 to 4, so fingers crossed

3.35 - Missile 3/1

4.10 - Artic Sound 9/1 ew. Course winner 2nd in German guniead behind a 107 nag so well weighted

 yankee

5.55 - Bronze RIver 4/1

Bets 06/06/2020

1.50 Newmarket - Well Done Fox 22/1 ew (Willhill 5places). 2nd in a G3 over C&D and I assume wants 5f on good ground hence the last few flops. Now gets conditions again.

3.35 Newmarket - Can't see Pintabu losing this, but I'd hope Arizona 10/1 ew (Willhill 3 places) gives it a decent run for money.

4.10 Newmarket - Exec Chef 7/1 ew (Bet365) Solid handicapper who runs well fresh and decent enough track form.

ew trixie