Bets 29/03/2015

The good: Nailed both big races yesterday; The Lincoln - Gabrial 14/1 and The Dubai World Cup - Prince Bishop 16/1. Gabrial was so well handicapped like I said and Prince Bishop was not a surprise like everyone is saying. The basic C&D rules applied a fair amount at Meydan yesterday.

The bad: I overlooked some fairly obvious favorites at Meydan. In top class races the best horse generally does win, especially on a sound surface. I know this. Ring rusty.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the racing Post has tipped:

Curragh 4.55 - Canary Row 20/1 and You're Fired 12/1

Doncaster looks really tricky today, as does Curragh, but sod it....


Doncaster 1.45 - Intisaab 8/1 is very well handciapped on all known form. There are form lines that suggest is about 8lbs well in and O'Meara has a good day yesterday.  Canyari 12/1 will bounce back today. Has everything needs to do so so is also well handicapped. Royal Connoisseur 12/1 also is good for this level with some decent wins last year and I reckon will be better on this good ground

Doncaster 2.15 - Occult 3/1 looks the one to be one with all the money for it

Doncaster 2.45 - Gothic Empire 4/1 looks the one to be one with all the money for it

Curragh 3.10 - Great Minds 5/2 ahead of mark

Doncaster 3.20 - Tatlisu 9/1 has a decent claim so on a good mark and Basil Berry 11/1 also look interesting as in good form and 6f is definitely the trip he wants

Doncaster 3.55 - Elkaayed 10/1 too big. I like this horse. Won here at Donny

Doncaster 4.30 - Dance of Fire 4/1 course winner, solid form, hopefully ahead of mark

Curragh 4.55 - I like both Segal's picks. Also like Haaf a Sixpence 16/1 and last years winner Stuccodor 12/1. Bold Thady Quill 25/1 will probably place again

Doncaster 5.00 - Viewpoint 10/1 and Ginger Jack 12/1 and Mika Mika 12/1 on best form are all really well handicapped

Curragh 5.25 - Ashraf 4/1

Bets 28/03/2015 - Dubai World Cup

Flat racing all day long today. Brilliant.

Tom Pricewsie Segal from the Racingpost has tipped:

2.35 Doncaster - Lucky Beggar 12/1 as Hills has targeted this race and goes well fresh

3.10 Doncaster - Flow 20/1 as Brown has targeted this race and Yourartisonfire 12/1 who was third in this last year.

3.45 Doncaster - Hillybilly Boy 16/1 who was a big improver last year.

Right lets see how much moolah can make or lose on the opening day of the flat season! First few weeks are always tough whilst formlines make their mark....


1.25 Doncaster - Just The Lord 5/2. Have to love a bit of Bill Turner on the first race of the season. General Alexander has interesting pedigree, but this is not a race to go mental. I'm simply following Bill has he has a good record in this race.

2.00 Doncaster - Tulius 4/6 ought to win comfortably purely just on ratings. A Group 2 winner in a Lister race has no excuses

2.35 Doncaster - Donny is a track that suits certain horses and both Jack Dexter and Aetna should be top of my list. However, when Astaire 3/1 beat Hot Streak and nearly won a G2 at York I thought we have one to follow here. Looked like had problems, but the fact has opened at 3/1 makes me think this horse has had problems corrected. If has improved from 3 to 4 which you would expect he could absolutely bolt up


3.10 Doncaster - Flow has been aimed at the race as Segal said. Yourartisonfire is a horse I've had massive bets on before so glad Segal has picked that one too The draw will no doubt be important so it's an even bigger punt on any of these. Most seem to think middle to high. King Torus 11/1 has dropped to a very tempting mark. Has won here before and goes well fresh. He needs to bounce back but O'Meara will have helped him. Certificate 13/2 could be another Varian hotpot. I wonder if Nicholls has plotted something with Indian Cheif?


3.45 Doncaster - So, which one is the Group horse? Mange All, GM Hopkins or Zarwaan? I did jump on the Mange All bandwagon Antepost 8/1 but actually GM Hopkins 7/1 looked much better than Mange All when they last met.  Has a chance. Belgian Bill 18/1 must have a huge chance. His Meydan form is decent by that virtue he also has race fitness. Is also a C&D winner. Typically I've got so drawn into this handicap I can't not back Gabrial 14/1. Is massively well in on old form

4.20 Doncaster - Ledbury 6/1 has an Irish Derby entry and Hills reckons will go well. King of Normandy 7/4 may well blast him, so perhaps forecast time.


Just warning everyone that I've not followed Meydan at all this year....

Meydan 12.40 - Tamarkuz 6/4 just looks very very good on dirt. Gold City won't turn the tables. Surfer is decent but drawn in the car park. Frankyourfingers is a massive danger, but I tell you what, check out Bradester 13/2 without Tamarkuz. He is rapid.

Meydan 1.15 - I hate Brown Panther. Never get him right. I don't think can win this despite being top rated. I have only just realised Cavalryman had a fatal injury :( I backed Dubday antepost for the Sheema so am annoyed is running i this race. I have to now back Dubday 14/1 as is a potentially very good horse. Mushreq 50/1 is an extremely speculative bet but this race doesn't look that great and he might just find the step up in trip an unlocking trick. Azheemah could bounce back, but an interesting late entry for Marzocco 10/1. It could be Goodolphins best chance and has pretty cound form back home

Meydan 1.55 - Golden Barrows could well bolt up, but I'm not risking this dirt debate. I'm sticking with those proven on this dirt in Meydan. Mubtaahij is worthy favoruite, but I want to be on Maftool 5/1. I think he can beat the favourite again. Is a bigger price because of the extra distance which is an unknown

Meydan 2.30 - Hmm. There will be several of these who blitz, and a wall of horses reeling them in at the finish. Athoug 8/1 is almost certain to place again but he was not too far away from Amber Sky last year and with AS not going to have own way maybe Athoug will finally get in front today.

Meydan 3.05 - United Colour 28/1 is a joke price. Watch this one come flying home. I don't know how good these American dirt horses are and how they will fair. I'm prepared to see how they go this year and learn for next year. Salutos Amigos 4/1 is tempting though

Meydan 3.40 - The Grey Gatsby 5/2 is 10lb clear on ratings and has no excuses

Meydan 4.15 - Designs on Rome 5/1 is a very good horse as is Main Sequence 7/1

Meydan 5.00 - I cannot believe how bigger price both African Story 10/1 and Prince Bishop 16/1 are. Clearly I'm taking the same route as if not proven on Meydan dirt I'll risk you're not as good as on other surfaces. You never know, if may bring out even more improvement!!!

Bets 22/03/2015

The flat is nearly here so the tracker is being updated. Whilst adding a few notes from Lingfield this morning I saw a note against a horse on the jumps that I just could not resist due to the big price, so I am breaking the jumps ban (again)

3.15 Downpatrick - Six Stone Ned 16/1 e/w, 4 places. He is on an all time low hurdles mark with a good claimer on ground he has no excuses for. Meades stable is in good nick. This horse was running in graded chases and if can recapture some form over hurdles 16/1 is far too big. I just hope the ground is quick enough. Slapped £100 e/w at 10.30am and 10 minutes later all bookies cut his price to 12/1 so hopefully this means his stable fancy him too and I got on in the nick off time. Or this could just be another jumps bet that flops hard!

Bets 13/03/2015 - Chelts Day 4

I can't tell you how peeved I am with the starter at Cheltenham. Monetaire really should have won the Stable Plate. The unnecessary restart lost Monetaire the race. Had a double ton double with The Package who won the next race. Small consolation that Segal picked Darna 40/1. I'm just under £4k up with £100 e/w stakes on mine and £25 e/w on Segals bets so I can't possibly punt and lose it all on the last day can I?

Tom Segal from the RP has tipped:

1.30 - Top Notch 9/1

2.05 - Princely Conn 16/1, Sort It Out, 16/1

3.20 - Djakadam 8/1

4.00 - Carsonstown Boy 20/1

4.40 - Le Mercurey 10/1, McKinley 14/1

5.15 - Grumeti -25/1

I'm off to Chelts...........

1.30 Chelts - Triumph

There are so many with potential in this race but after watching Peace and Co 3/1 including here at Cheltenham. Very good horse.

I'm finding it difficult to find out whether the Irish lot in this race are any good or not. Beltor and Hargam also looks bloody good but will stick with the favourite

2.05 Chelts - County Hurdle 

Another mental puzzle. Dormello Mo 33/1 e/w 5 places has won 3 races over hurdles but each of them he has romped. If he somehow finds his form he could be well in.

The Betfair Hurdle form look very strong. Ebony Express would do seriously well to win again on a penalty so soon after last week. Wicklow Brave doesn't look good enough.Violet Dancer went up 9lbs and that will be tough to overcome. Cheltentian has a really good chance, but again up 5lb and carries top weight which will be tough. Forced Family Fun 50/1 e/w 5 places was running really well with the leading pack but had a really bad stumble and never recovered. Keeps the same weight has surely has a better chance than the 50/1 available.  Activial showed the Betfair form is decent so worth a pop at a big price.

Chelts 2.40 Albert Bartlett 

I don't think Black Hercules is going to get the ground he wants so have to take him on. If I'm able to ignore No More Heroes 5/1 e/w last run then is definitely the one to be one. Navan form a bonus and beat Shaneshill who ran a blinder on day 1.

Caracci Apache beat Blaklion last time out, but I'm not sure whether that was a genuine defeat for Blaklion or not. The fact that Twiston does well with stayers and Blacklion 16/1 e/w has more experience on side and has won over C&D I will back him

Chelts 3.20 - Gold Cup

I don't think Many Clouds is good enough and is yet to win a G1. If Djakadam wins then hats off to Mullins, but fell at Cheltenham, was rubbish in the Hennessey and is still a baby in Gold Cup books. However Mullins rates him, Walsh chose him and Segal tipped him, so have to back him Djakadam 8/1 e/w. 

Coneygree - big ask and will probably set the race up up for a decent test. When he defected from the the RSA and it rained my eyes turned to Conti. Last year I'm convinced the top 3 got quicker ground on the run in and had Conti not swayed all over the place he could have nailed it. Cheekpieces look to have sorted him out and Conti 9/2 could turn out to be massive as has the form, has the trainer form and Dodging bullete proved can turn it around

Chelts 4.00 - Foxhunter

Would be amazing for Salisfy to win again, but surely he has had his time now. I'm not great wit Hunter chases, but I'll go for Carsonstown Boy 14/1 e/w who was 2nd in this last year, On The Fringe 8/1 e/w who was 3rd in this last year and Paint The Clouds 9/2 e/w who can give Warren more to cheer about. Looks in decent nick.

Chelts 4.40 Pipe Hurdle

Full Shift 16/1 e/w was favourite for this race last year and is back. Been a long break yes, but reckon Hendo has something up his sleeve for this one!

Also I will Jolly if have cracked this puzzle with Jollys' Cracked It 20/1 e/w. Was last in the betfair hurdle at one point without being heavily ridden. Finished really well, so step up with suit and they have one of the best conditional jockeys onboard.

5.15 Grand Annual

Clearly Ned Butline 9/2 e/w is going to go off a really short favourite with the McCoy factor. However based on last year's effort alone in this race he is a worthy favourite. The Giggestown machine got in the way last year!

Ted Veale 14/1 e/w (5 places) is a festival winner, comes here off a really good boylesport race and it could be the Martin and Cooper show to spoil McCoy's Chelts swansong.

Bets 12/03/2015 - Chelts Day 3

Another solid day yesterday despite getting the Coral Cup all wrong. Will need to be careful today as are some awfully difficult handicaps to solve.

I feel a bad day coming on.


1.30 Chelts - JLT

On all know form Vautour 7/4 wins this. His Supreme win last year was phenomenal. There is an argument to say that Ptit Zig beat Josses Hill by equivalent of 13 lengths and Vautour only did by 6 lengths. PZ is also higher rated than Vautour.

I do also like Apache Stronghold but I'm not sure can turn tables on Vautour.


2.05 Chelts - Pertemps

If Trustan Times 22/1 e/w (5 places) was a few lbs lower last year like he is today he would have won. Let's hope he can today.

Edeymi 9/1 e/w (5 places) looks like another potential Martin plot and Regal Encore 10/1 e/w (5 places) who was 2nd in Champion bumper couple years back looks to have a chance.

Sybarite might be one to back in running at a big price but I'm not sure will get home ahead of enough rivals as always leaves it too late to get going. Call The Cops is tempting but Brother Brian 12/1 e/w (5 places) is still couple pounds better off and still looks ahead of his mark. Just hope he stays.

This is so hard and actually I might not back all of these. It's a stupid betting strategy. I might back them on the nose.


2.40 Chelts - Ryanair 

Don Cossack 9/2 e/w looks like another likely Irish winner. Elliot reckoned this was his best chance of a winner this week. He does look good and whilst has not won here before looked like was travelling well enough in the RSA.

The biggest danger to Don Cossack looks like Ma Filleue. I'm not sure what the record of this race is like with fillies, but judged on last years 2nd at the festival not sure it matters apart from the face gets a massive 7lb allowance. This puts her on a par with Don Cossack on ratings. If you use Hollywell as a marker then it'll be bloody close between these two. It's get more complicated by the fact Balder Success then beat MF by 3 lengths.

Out of the 3 I will stick with DC largely due to confidence of Elliot, but I do note that Elliot at the beginning of the season said he was not top of the G1 class

Wishfull Thinking 33/1 e/w is an old boy now and will do well to win. However, I'm not sure why he was run at 3m or 2m because I think he is at his best over 2m 4f on good ground, so today is near perfect and he is a C&D winner. Eduard looks to be a serious chaser in the making and has solid form lines. At 20/1 is off some interest but wonder if it's too soon and not yet run here at Chelts before


3.20 Chelts - World Hurdle

Last year's 3rd and 4th return without Annie Power and More of That and I think they both have solid chances.

Zarkandar has drifted to 7/1 e/w (4 places) and I think that's mad, but the issue I have is the hill. I'm not convinced handles it, but comes here in better form than last year along with all the Nicholls horses

At Fishers Cross 25/1 e/w (4 places) gets a small bet because McCoy has to win a race this festival, Curtis is quietly confident, we know he can win at chelts, Oscar pedigree good for good ground and blinkers will hopefully sort out jumping issues. I know part of me is doing this because he has lost me a wad of cash before, but sod it.

Reve De Sivola will probably struggle with the quick ground.

Saphir Du Rheu is class bit still has to prove can handle the ground and for something is stopping me back him but I'm not sure what. Could be reckless!

I know I shouldn't back another horse and in doing so flags that I can't pick the winner, but Whisper 10/1 e/w (4 places) really does handle to hill, is improving, and was not far away from quality of SDR over hurdles.


4.00 Chelts - Stable Plate

And this is where we throw even more money away :)

There's an obvious bet in this. Monetaire 8/1 e/w (5 places) From the Pipe stable who landed a gamble yesterday and who always have well handicapped horse in this race. The form with Solar Impulse puts him miles ahead of mark.

I remember backing Burn and Turn 25/1 e/w (5 places) and landing a decent prize in Ireland and then using that as form to find Road to Riches. I think is well handicapped ignoring the last race.

Buywise is a massive danger but has too many jumping issues, No Buts is interesting too as the Sound Investment form is strong and Champion Court is on a seriously low mark now. Caid Du Berlais is tempting but stats show low weights do best in this so I'll play my luck with just the two picks

4.40 Chelts - Kim Muir


Does not get any easier:

Seems to be a gamble going down on The Package 10/1 e/w 5 places. Has the best jockey onboard. Pipe yard does well and TP does have a big race in him. The other Pipe runner Standinf Ovation has chances, but not sure gets the hill

Clondaw Knight 20/1 e/w 5 places is very exciting. Improving, ahead of the handicapper and has a jockey with the best record on this course. I always pay attention to Harrington runners as well

Ericht 40/1 e/w 5 places solid course runner, massive step down in class and might have been Johns Spirits here with a clearer run of this mark

Just a Par 18/1 has just a chance

Bets 11/03/2015 - Chelts Day 2

Being back in the winners enclosure is brilliant. 12/1, 14/1, 22/1, 10/1, 11/1 placed, a 6/1 winner and the final winner @ 14/1 was just divine. The race panned out exactly how I called it.

Fair play to Mullins yesterday. The hype was valid and really should have been 4 winners.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racingpost has tipped the following. 8 horses! That's ridiculous from the genius as is a lot of outlay, so will need to pick and choose which ones to back

2.40 Chelts - Hammersly Lake 25/1, Un Atout 16/1
4.00 Chelts - Toutancarmont 8/1
4.40 Chelts - Bouveril 16/1, Baron Alco 25/1
5.15 Chelts - Jetstream Jack 25/1, Wait For Me 12/1

Called into work - so less research than yesterday :( FFS!

Sticking with the e/w strategy as needed:

1.30 Chelts - Neptune 

I am on Windsor Park 10/1 e/w AP already, but he has to turn the tables on both Nic Canyon and Outlander. I reckon Windsor Park could still win this with more experience under his belt on better ground. Will need to up his jumping game though.

I'm sure Mullins will get another 1-2 today, but I can't pick the winner so am leaving this one today.


2.05 Chelts - RSA Chase -

I had Don Poli 7/4 marked down as a banker a while back. After yesterday's romp by Mullins no reason to move away from this. Already a G1 winner and won at the festival last year. I have to admit I'm worried about lack of experience over fences though.

Wounded Warrior is decent but needs slower ground and looks held by Don Poli. Kings Palace was a flop at the festival last year and not sure will get his own way upfront. Adriana Des Mottes (Walsh/Mullins) is 33/1, but I can't see ADM winning on all known form. Maybe next year.

Mulholland had a decent winner in The Druids Nephew yesterday and they are bullish about the Young Master, but I think will need to improve a lot as will If In Doubt

I backed Southfield Theatre 20/1 e/w Ante Post and still think has a decent chance. Apache Jack back AP too.

2.40 Coral Cup - 

Aux Ptits Soins could bolt up but even Nicholls says dont' know enough about him.

Marinero is quite interesting but was a poor run last time,

Time for a big priced outsider. Vasco Du Ronceray 50/1 e/w (5 places) was travelling pretty well in the Betfair hurdle until was hampered. He absolutely bolted up in his previous race but is only 5lb higher. Whilst that form is not brilliant, he has put up a couple good performances at Chelts before and has a strong e/w shout.

Un Atout does have a good chance based on his run in the Supreme last year. Will have to get back into hurdle mode, but on a mark of 145 and Mullins banging them in Segal might have picked the winner! He has also picked Hammersly Lake 20/1  e/w who again also has a very good chance. I like the way he powered up the hill.

If Goodwood Mirage 16/1 e/w (5 places) can sort jumping out I'm convinced is well handicapped and better handicapped than Activial. However clearly it's a risk to back to dodgey jumper in such a hard race. There was a fair amount of money for the horse yesterday so hopefully a good sign.

If Lac Fontana has improved enough and bounces back to form will have a chance, but too much if for me. If headgear works for Dell Arca another one who has a chance. Mijhaar is interesting but Ferguson horses were poor yesterday.

Volnay De Thaix caught eye with Rock on Ruby form, but top weight looks tough. Bears Affair is tempting, but not convinced enough.

The 4th horse I have to bet on is Baradari 16/1 e/w (5 places). Ran a blinder in the Fred winter last year and step up in trip has proved in last race to bring out the improvement. Will be flying home late


3.20 Chelts - Queen Mother Chase - 

I think Sire De Grugy 7/2 e/w is the one to be with. Watch his win last year. Was a quick time and he had a lot more left in the tank. Moore reckons he is better than last year.

If Sprinter return to best then fine, only one winner, but that's a real big ask. Big Bucks couldn't do it....
 Simply Ned?

4.00 Chelts - Cross Country - 

The market has this right. 3 way race for me except I'm not sure about this Toutancarmont. Segal has backed him, but for me Duke of Lucca 6/1, Any Currency 6/1 and Sire Collonges 15/2. All have the form and weight to win this. Combination Tricast is about 225/1.

Aiden Coleman may well have screwed Any Currency's chances by driving him home by 12 lengths last time. Was no need for it and now has gone up 9lbs, but he really can power up that hill.


4.40 Chelts - Fred Winter - 

I know very little abut Juvenile form this season, so no confidence in whatever I pick.

After wasting at least 30 mins I've decided to go with Souriyan 25/1 e/w (4 places). Battered Sebastian Beach who also in this race on similar ground, has a nice claim, was decent on the flat and just hope for a bit of luck!


5.15 Chelts - Champion Bumper - 

Segal has gone for Jetstream Jack 25/1 (e/w) - I agree from reading 'whispers' about how good he is.

I think Supasundae 12/1 and Moon Racer 7/1 have good chances, but this is a wide open race as it is every year! Mullins has 6 runners!!!

Bets 10/03/2015 - Chelts Day 1

The bookies are bricking it about a Mullins whitewash, but I don't know how much game playing is going on. Just remember form, form, form. Festival form, course form, ground form, trainer form, current form and you'll have a fighting chance.

I am going back to e/w punting on anything over 7/2 for my own financial safety reasons!

I have a feeling Henderson is going to have a decent 4 days . Townsend does not have a bad few rides either.

Chelts 1.30 - Supreme Novices -

All the rage was for Douvan and somewhat still is. Not convinced. L'Ami Serge has a huge chance but I will question the ground for him. Jollyallan also is running very well at the moment and would be fitting for McCoy to open the scoring. However a horse that beat Jollyallan on G/S ground in a bumper and was 2nd in a bumper at the festival last year is Shansehill 12/1 (e/w 3 places). I'm a tiny bit unsure about the form with No More Heroes, but I think the ground is going to help.

Qewy has a brilliant chance and a serious turn of foot but will have to step up again and has to deal with another different jockey, and may need it softer. I don't know enough about Tell Us More, but we all know how well Giggy Town do with their horses so needs consideration.

There is another Mullins horse Alvisio Ville 25/1 (e/w) might get a half bet as was favourite to beat Nichols Canyon last time out and even Mullins thought would so perhaps, just perhaps was a bad day?

Chelts 2.05 - Arkle -

I appear to have a rather big AP bet on Sail By The Sea 66/1. Notes suggest the owner comments made me do this. Looked brilliant last time out so you never know, but I think was a daft bet and this is seriously hard as Un De Sceaux 4/5 looks bloody good. I will wrap him up in a double with Annie Power as not backing any odds on horses today.

I don't think UDS can be beaten but I think Josses Hill 14/1 (e/w) who was closest to Vatour last year might get the closet to UDS. Has been running consistently well and will come here peaked to the max.

Chelts 2.40 - Ultima Solutions Handicap -

Ridiculous handicap! Will have to try hard not to back more than a few! Avoid Nicholls horses in these long distance chase events and back O'Neill!

Black Thunder too high in weights, I think Cape Tribulation has lost it, No Planning has lost way, not overly convinced about Druids Nephew on this ground and looks handicapped to tilt, Gallant Oscar has decent form at Navan but all of rain soaked ground, not sure Barrakilla will stay, Theatre Guide might have a chance based on run in December but not in good nick. Ground looks against Annacotty, Tenor N and Shangani. Don't think Grand Jesture up to it. Not sure According to Trev has any improvement left, Azure Fly long way to go, What A Warrior just has not gone well at Chelts, Lamb or Cod doesn't look well handicapped anymore

Not sure Pendra is going to stay and I didn't like the way Ned Stark failed to get up the Cheltenham hill. Monbeg Dude preferrably wants further. Smart Freddy might be well handicapped but not sure.

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Gallant Oscar 10/1. Has a decent chance.

Gevrey Chambetin 14/1 (e/w 5 places) goes well fresh and blinkers in his last race really seemed to perk him up. 

Mendip Express 16/1 (e/w 5 places) looks too big. Nearly won the Beecher, in good form, trainer good record here, horse in good form and has won here before.

Indian Castle 22/1 (e/w 5 places) maybe would have cliched 3rd at the festival last year. Arrives in good form as does trainer so a place could be up for grabs

Dursey Sound and Lost Legend both 50/1 are hard to back but they are O'Neill and he does so well in handicap chases over 3m+, but not sure can. Hmm

Chelts 3.20 - Champion Hurdle -

Artic Fire does have e/w chance, but not going to back him. Bertimont very little chance. Hurricane Fly is a legend and I have a few quid AP and big odds, but not recommending today. Kitten Rock too much to find. Jezki of course has a chance to retain crown, but I'm not overly convinced. 

Tom Pricewise Segal from the Racing Post has picked Vantieux 33/1. Barry was saying at the beginning of the season could be a champion hurdle horse. 

I've watched a few videos now and Faugheen 11/10 looks rock solid. He's 2lb higher in the ratings and I think he might just fly away, but I'm going to put Faugheen in an acc as I'm not bothered about doubling up and go for The New One 4/1 e/w. I still think should have won last year and Sam just needs to make sure does not let Faugheen go to far out of sight

Chelts 4.00 - OLBG Mares -

Quevega must be peeved now this is a G1, however in similar fashion Annie Power as seemingly fragile as Quevega turns up without a prep win. If she is fit she wins. Top rated with solid form and course form. The first four home ought to be Glens Melody, Polly Peachum and L'Unique.

I am going to put Faugheen & Annie Power in a double as can't bet on Annie Power at odds on. Henderson's lot are in really good form coming into the festival so Polly Peachum 10/1 (e/w) gets backed as does Glen's Melody 6/1 (e/w). The market without Annie Power offers little value so e/w seems like the best bet if she flops. L'Unique has a few pounds to find with Polly Peachum so will leave out.

Caroles Spirit and Bitofapuzzle next best but will stick with the top end of market as looks right. This is def a tricast moment.

Chelts 4.40 - National Hunt Chase -  Thunder and Roses top rated is tempting but Very Wood 4/1 (e/w 4 places) is a course winner and won a G2 Chase at Navan very easily last time. Again I think the betting is correct and Sego Success 11/2 (e/w 4 places) is biggest danger.

Again, forecast territory

Segal has picked Perfect Gentleman 12/1.

Chelts 5.15 - Novice Handicap Chase - 

Segal has tipped 2 on my shortlist. Keltus 10/1 (e/w 5 places) and Killala Quay 16/1 (e/w 5 places). Everything in last few years says don't back Nicholls chasers at Chelts, but Keltus nearly won the Fred Winter last year and Nicholls has plotted a big handicap win every big race day and Keltus fits the bill. He had a hard passage through but stormed up the hill. KQ ran a blinder in Neptune last year and ought to be able to match his hurdles mark. Back on better ground, left handed, must have a decent chance.

Generous Random cruised into the home straight here at Chelts last time but nearly got done on the line and one horse who could turn the tables is Irish Cavalier 14/1 (e/w 5 places). This horse stormed up the hill and now has a 5lb pull with GR and I also think action will be better suited on quicker ground.

Horizontal Speed could be a massive danger but I can't work out from his races if is well handicapped or not. Potentially yes but I don't know, but if he is then Golden Hoof is far better handicapped as beat HS very easily at Aintree, but not convinced. 

The favourite Thomas Crapper has every chance too. He will be close to leading up the home straight but i think something will fly passed him. (I hope it will)