1.50 York - The Man a massive winner last time out heads the market. I like this horse but it's tough for a 3year old against seasoned handicappers, especially in this race where they've no wins and placed 1 in 25 attempts). Spencer is off the boil so happy to take it on at the price.
Depending on which trends you take there are 6 - 9 horses that meet the big trends and many look on a winnable mark, including those who don't meet the trends. Therefore it's a really open handicap as you'd expect and I could pick 4 or 5.
Air Force One ran a cracker with 11-10 over C&D and is weighted to reverse with Brazen Bolt. Brazen Bolt is on the rampage and I think can go well again, but on paper have to prefer AFO on weights.
Jordan Electrics ran a blinder in the race last year going down to JM Jungle who has gone on to bigger and better things and was poorly drawn lto
Bergerac a winner of this race two years back is back in really good form and can win off this mark
Squealer's form with JM Jungle from this year can't be ignored, but just wonder if the high draw will put end to chances
Shortlist was: Air Force One 10s (6/12), Bergerac 16s (7/12), Jordans Electric 10s (6/12).
2.25 York - No real interest in the race. Thought Gewan 10/1ew was tempting but only 2 places
3.00 York - Mount Kilimanjaro 18/1ew worth a small pop, but sadly only 2 places. It's runs at Saint Cloud and Chester were really very good. Assuming it improves further for the trip may give the market leaders something to chew on
4.10 York - Fireblade 9/1ew (8/12)
One of 5 who meets all the trends I've used. Last of the bridle lto won well enough and looks progressive. I think / hope will be a relatively steadily run race and Fireblade has good tactical speed. Doyle has a decent SR for longer distance races at York and Cunha stats in August at York are building up nicely. Terrorise is likely a good ew and Santorini Star looks a big danger and of course any AJMartin horse in a staying handicap is, but I think Fireblade can step up again ahead of them.
4.45 - If Lady Roxby 25/1ew was drawn lower I'd be really bullish about this one. Is 25/1 vs Luna A who is 6/1. I just don't know whether from this draw can take advantage of the pull. All the horses I like are drawn too high.
Madamoiselle 25/1ew is also too big based on form with Rubys Profit. Lost shoe last run so ignore
5.20 - Saucy Jane 28/1ew