Bets 31/05/2013

Gloomy Sunday was genius. Ha. Love it when 25/1 shot comes in, especially after a flat patch. But the facts where all there. That French form is strong and was franked at higher grades. Also the comments about his run flattening out in previous race were slightly odd. If you watch the race on youtube you’ll see why. Anyway back to today.

Espom 1.35 – Segal has gone for Ighraa 12/1. And why not. That French form is again very strong but I always worry about 3 year olds amongst the older bunch, but will stick with it as there are number I like in this and will be tough to pick the winner

Epsom 2.10 – I reckon Desai Jnr will be telling me to back Blue Surf as Perrett is boshing them in. I made my money on Blue Surf last year so happy to look elsewhere as too short. The one that looks big is Fattsota 12/1. Form in handicaps over here before stint in Meydan must give him a decent chance. And the man Dettori is onboard.

Epsom 2.45 – Custom Cut 14/1 looks big on his Irish form. Ground will be perfect and the Murty is up.

Epsom 3.20 – Segal has gone for Mister Music 12/1. Based on previous C&D form I get it, based on last few races, not totally convinced but the mark is tempting. The other interesting one is Maverick 8/1 based on current from and C&D runs.

Epsom 4.00 – There is a lot of chat about The Lark. Segal tipped her at 25/1. I don’t totally understand it. I’ve been mulling this one over for a while and struggling to see passed the first two in the market. Secret Gesture thumped a Listed field and the form was slightly franked in the Italian Oaks. Moth was flying home behind Just The Judge and we know how good that form is. I’ve read somewhere that the filly really didn’t handle the Newmarket track and which must be a worry here. I’ve backed Say Antepost as advised by Segal. The Banoffee form looks strong and Fallon is a master at Epsom. Banofee 10/1 also has a serious turn off foot and will be the bet for today, but if Moth handles the track I’d say is the class in the race.

Epsom 4.45 – Hasopop 9/4 looks to have the best form on show. Won last race far easier than paper shows. I do however had Here Comes When on my tracker but the form looks to have slumped a bit. Hope I don’t regret.

Bets 30/05/2013

Just having one of those prolonged periods, where am slowly ebbing dollar. Not going back to jumps again, until the season kicks off and not touching any C6 races unless I’m tracking a horse.

Sandown 6.10 – Significant Move 3/1 will appreciate the slower ground and although beaten 5 lenghts by Hanseatic that race will work out well.

Sandown 6.40 – I had reservations about Steventon Star Evs with the draw and Autumns Blush and Montaigne in the race. However they are both non runners and SS ought to win this and frank the Anticipated formline via Justice Day

Sandown 7.15 – Segal has tipped up Model Pupil 11/1. It’s likely to be slower ground by race time and so feel can eliminate a few from the pack. High Jinx may want slightly further and Times Up carries a penalty. I wonder whether Gloomy Sunday 25/1 is the bet to have. Les Beaufs is a decent horse and although was a decent weight give there’s a few pounds today and Peslier gets the leg up. Ferland’s horses are in good nick. I admit this is ambitious but hey ho.

Sandown 8.50 – Spas Dancer 3/1 looks like the obvious winner. The value may lie with Swing Alone 16/1

Bets 29/05/2013

Beverley 7.05 – Half on Carragold 7/1 who is running to form but arguably goes best over C&D and the other half on Moccasin 20/1 who has decent form on the books; better than paper suggests.

Beverley 7.35 – Lexington Rose 11/4 has the best form to show behind a classy Bedale Memory. Return to better ground will also suit.

Beverley 8.05 – Can’t split Heeraat or Hamza in my head or on paper over this distance, so Hamza 10/11 w/o Heeraat is my bet

Will have a cheeky punt on the jumps today but only Accs:

@ Fontwell  Dimpsy Time 9/2 doubled with Tiller Belle 4/1

@ Punchestown a blind E/w Acc on horses I know the names of. Not looked at form but Moon Dice 9/2, Seabass 5/4, Stonemaster 3/1, Some Article 4/1

Bets 28/05/2013

Yesterday was another frustrating day. 1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, but happens and at least the e/w acc came in.

Leicester 3.00 – Pythagorean is the favourite and rightly so on paper, but I think Testamatta 16/1 is overpriced. The form of the 2yr h/c @ Newmarket is strong enough at this level and looks like has progressed over the winter after a walk in the park on seasonal reappearance.

Redcar 4.10 – Willbeme 10/1 goes well fresh, potentially has improved over the break and can continue to lift the form of previous race.

Leicester 4.30 – So far my new found attempts to understand pedigree have failed. Pedigree is all the chat about Dawn Approach for the Derby and I guess we’ll see the importance of it next week. Toofi 6/1 is from Henrythenevigator and closely related to Reckless Abandon. Varian is in decent form and has a decent SR at Leicester. Let’s see what happens. Fats has a new theory too – Jockey bookings might be more significant than form!? Well My King of Jazz was beaten by a nose by an 8/1 shot that Barzy rode; his only ride of the day. He has another one today in this race – Dalaki 66/1! Let’s see what happens! Ha

Yarmouth 7.10 – Patriotic 6/1 drop in trip is hopefully the answer. Has been running in decent handicaps. Looks a good opportunity.

Also watch out for any of Fredick Ty's rides at Yarmouth. He has a 21% SR with +£154.00 profit

Bets 27/05/2013

Nailed a few in Curragh yesterday. Segal lost me more money and eagerness/stupidity to crack big handicap races with no prior knowledge cost me all profit.

Redcar 4.00 – Eshtibaak 9/4 has decent enough form to suggest is the best handicapped in this. Cumani who has won this race a couple of times has Gab The Great but can’t see the form although the drop in trip looks potentially like the right thing to do. Silver Lime wasn’t really aimed at this and I think needs further. Tahaamah 5/1 w/o the fav looks a decent bet as he was travelling really well in last race until back end of race and the step back in trip ought to suit

Windsor 3.20 – I’s still sticking with the Yeeoow form line. Lady Gibraltar franked the form and first time headgear on Tropics 10/3 might help him stick the end of race out. Will be fitter after first race of season.

Windsor 3.55 – King of Jazz 9/2 always looks like he is going to win or at least go close until push comes to shove. Has taken a drop in class today along with Signor Sassi who looks the main danger.

Bets 26/05/2013

I didn’t have a chance to look at Ireland yesterday so I missed Magician and one of my Meydan horses Hitchens. Not saying would have backed it as didn;’t look at the card but would have been likely. Only had a few winners yesterday and took a few hits, but again reminds me to just leave them alone if I don’t have time. Anyway back to today, Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for two today:

Longchamp 2.40 – Mandour 9/1
Curragh 3.35 - Hanky Panky 20/1

AOB is just ridic and probably not worth taking him on in too many races, but I’m not really average with Irish racing:

Curragh 1.45 – Sir John Hawkins 6/5, even though lots of money appearing for Master of Time

Curragh 2.15 – Bob Le Beau 16/1 won this 2 years ago of a similar mark, but it’s likely might struggle with top weight against some younger improvers. No idea who it might be, but chance with Raydari 9/1 who looks to be slightly ahead of the handicapper. Will need a smart ride though and luck in running with such a big field.

Curragh 2.45 – Watching Leading Light 4/5 stretch away from Dibayani was pretty impressive

Curragh 3.20 – I’m not betting on this race but Ladbrokes opened 2/7 on Camelot which suggests a lot of confidence behind him. Al Kazeem will give him some trouble.

Curragh 3.55 – Just The Judge 11/4 can compensate for 2^nd place in UK leg. It’s not a clear cut thing though. Big Break looks badly drawn but perhaps a better horse. Snow Queen came from far back to finish well in the UK leg and Maureen is freaking nippy, but sticking with the favourite.

Curragh 4.30 – Foolish boy for trying to tackle this. Not heard of any of these horses. Foot Perfect 33/1 has produced his best races on good ground over 6f. Had all of 2012 off and not really come back to form which is why such a big price. If somehow manages to bounce back to the form that saw him run close to Gordon Lord Byron must have a chance. Royal Empress 16/1 on form with Letir Mor over C&D last year.

Longchamp 1.30 – Parle Moi 6/1 looks a decent bet in form behind Esoterique

Lonchamp 3.10 – Last Train 15/8 ought to hold form

Bets 25/05/2013 - Temple Stakes

In Sweden today so must be brief. Pricewise has picked out 3 today:

York 2.55 - Judge N Jury 14/1
Haydock 3.15 - Code of Honor 9/1, Red Avenger 12/1

My picks, but no time for lotsa commentary.

Chester 2.30 - An Cat Dubh 7/1 is handicapped averagely but up in trip needed and likes it here.

Chester 3.10 - Last chance for Gatepost 10/3

Chester 3.40 - Mysterious Man 7/2

Chester 4.15 - Chosen Character 4/1

Goodwood 2.05 - Asfare 13/8 and on OR

Goodwood 4.05 - Noble Mission 4/6 likes it here and on OR even though Moment In Time is the value as should be rated 6lb higher based on penultimate run.

Haydock 2.10 - Albaqaa 4/1 looks in good form and 8f looks ideal. Short price for a big handicap though.

Haydock 3.15 - Newstead Abbey 11/2, Pure Excellence 40/1. If Here Comes When 9/2 is really well handicapped then worth a double with Breton Rock 5/2 @ Goodwood 3.35

Haydock 3.50 - I remember watching this race last year on the balcony in glorious sunshine. WTF is wrong with the weather. Anyway Reckless Abandon is by far the best horse in the race and gets a decent 3yr old allowance, but I'm not sure drop in trip can beat Sole Power 2/1. RA could well have improved further and could well demolish this field but would rather wait and see.

Haydock 4.20 - Polar Venture Vs Saloomy r f/c

Haydock 4.55 - Mississippi 4/1

Haydock 6.00 - Enobled 13/8

York 1.50 - Have a free bet on this race from B365 - No idea. Umm Pintura 7/2

York 2.20 - I really hope Mad Moose doesn't improve as Songcraft 7/4 should be hard to beat and his trainer is banging them in

York 2.55 - Ancient Cross 10/1

York 4.00 - Lyric Street 14/1 looks a big price. Ignore last race and just check out form behind Address Unknown, SGW, High Jinx and Mount Athos - down 4 pounds = 4 lengths.