Monday 4 June 2012

O’Brien, Pacemakers or Front Runners and Immense Stupidity

“Aidan O'Brien was the Champion Amateur Jockey of 1993/94, the same season in which he trained his first winner, on his first day as a licensed Trainer. In 1996, he would become Ireland's youngest ever Champion Trainer, a title he has now held continuously since 1998. In 2001, he became the youngest ever Champion British Trainer, and the first overseas holder of the title since, well, since one Dr. M.V. O'Brien”. Guess we now watch this space for Joseph. What a family, but a family I still can’t get a handle on. I’ve faired better this year than previous years with the yard’s horses and I think I’ve nearly sussed it. All you need is two bullets in your gun. Ladbrokes and the Front Runner.

Ladbrokes were the shortest priced bookie in the days leading up to the applicable races for the big guns; Camelot, St Nicolas Abbey, Camelot again and Power. Interestingly enough they were not the shortest on Maybe (both times) and when Homecoming Queen and St Nicolas Abbey lost their respective races this season. So that takes care of when to back a Ballydole favourite. Now the Ballydole long shots. Simples. When there is more than one Ballydole runner simply back the secret front runner a.k.a. the pacemaker; probably the least favoured horse in the race, but this is not always the homing missile. Homecoming Queen 25/, Windsor Palace 66/1, Was 20/1, and sure there are others I can’t remember and a number who placed as well such as Astrology in this year’s Derby and At First Sight (100/1) in 2010 Derby. Sorted!? I’m certainly not going to shy away from backing the big-priced ones anymore especially if there are no genuine front runners in the race. Clearly if you have a Danedream or an Overturn or and an Alleged, etc. then this might fall down.

Now onto the stupidity. It’s so daft, utterly foolish, and insanely unbelievable, it’s laughable. All week I’ve been aroused at the prospect of winning £500 on an immense £10 Treble with Bated Breath, winner of Temple Stakes (100/30), Power, winner of Irish 2k Guineas (5/1) and Camelot, winner of the Derby. I even laid Camelot after Bated Breath and Power hacked up so it was a win-win situation. But guess what? Guess bloody what!!? My treble was Bated Breath, Power and Homecoming Queen! TWAT! Why, oh why I never checked, I’ll never know! GUTTED! Another O’Brien catastrophe for me…

Self-deprecation in unhealthy, but this is warranted. I’m a moron. That Reiss suit in Westfield will just have to hang there a little while longer…

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