Bets 23/01/2014

I swear Meydan was not this hard last year. It was much easier to pick one of two with really decent chances, but feck me, so many have chances today all at decent prices. I’ve really tried to limit the number I’ve backed today, and I will no doubt regret it once some of the shortlisted pop up, but pah. I’ve managed to keep to 11 horses over 6 races.

2.30 Meydan –Alraihran 7/1 is Barzy’s pick and in a difficult first race might be worth trusting his course supremecy, Instransigent was interesting as decent on AW but wide draw and high mark enough to leave. Masamah 8/1 is one I’ve always liked and the only risk is he does not take to tapeta (which is always a big risk)

3.05 Meydan –Jedi comes back from a long lay off, but maybe one to watch next time. Restraint of Trade is Barzy’s choice so has to be of interest, but again young and looked better on soft. Jutland doesn’t look up to scratch. The Corishcockney, back after a year surely cant’ win this with different trip and surface and big step up in class. Genius Beast won me a solid prize 3 years ago, but again back after a break, but if fit is well handicapped. Bank of Burden and Submariner look too high in weights. Handsome Man needs to prove he is upto this class. Tanfeeth has had enough chances to prove himself so not keen. Dormello has had his chances but tends to start poorly. If fixes that will go close. Right left with Excellent Result, Inthar, Topclas and Certerach. On paper Certerach 12/1 just beats Topclas, but Topclas trainer in Topclass form so is tough, but Certerach is proven on this course multiple times at the level and has to have a decent e/w chance. It’s a big step up in class for Inthar but he come here in incredible form and is very tempting but the only other bet I might have is Excellent Result 9/2. The draw might make it slightly harder, but those Ascot handicaps are strong from and I remember SBS having a decent record in staying races here.

3.40 Meydan – Capital Attraction 25/1 ran poorly last time for me, but it may be that he needed the run. If he produces similar form to last year he can take this at a big price back in handicap company. I like Free Wheeling but think mile is too far. Disa Leader has dropped to a nearly tempting mark and won’t be surprised if goes close. Barbeque Eddie was phenomenal last year and made me decent cash. He’s down 7lb in lower company so he might be chucked in. However I just reckon he has just had it now. He is an old boy. Derbass 16/1 and Bertiewhittle 9/1 who both ran decent races last time out. Derbass interestingly wasn’t given an overly hard time once beat so from a better draw is juicy.

4.15 Meydan – Banoffee is one of my let down horses. She does have decent form on AW but not sure is well handicapped. Plantagent 14/1 has a love affair with Meydan as it somewhat average everywhere else. On this mark he might make his price look silly. Zip Top may well be the one to beat but until proven on Tapeta can’t play a part. Manalapan looks too high in weights I reckon. Daddy Long Legs won the UAE Derby in 2012 comfortably so is the class in this race and very well handicapped but has to bounce back before I back him. Layali seems to fall short at this level but on his last run puts him in with a chance.

4.50 Meydan – Very few of these have run in handicaps so it’s tough to assess. This is a decent class race and a step up for some of the seasoned handicappers. I would love to say back Anaerobio again and Fulbright but Mshawish 8/1 finished close enough to Dawn Approach, Intello and Torando for me to think is on a workable mark.  It’s a big step up in grade for the other two, but can’t fully write off.

5.25 Meydan – Gabrial 11/2 can go one better than last time . No idea how good Sanshaawees but could romp on paper. El Estuendoso 8/1 might step up after first run back too.

Back in the UK;

1.50 Warwick – Franklin Roosevelt 4/1 back down in class, down the weights can take this.

2.15 Gowran Park – Zaidpour 4/7 should not be beaten

3.15 Gowran Park – Tom Pricewise Segal has gone for Groody Hill 16/1. Decent choice. Might need to Lookoutnow 10/1 for a Rich Revival 16/1 though.

6.30 Kempton – Poitin 4/1 was one I called out a few weeks ago at a massive price and was unlucky not to do better than 4^th at 16/1. Runs of the same mark and if stays the extra 2f will have a very good chance.